May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[Grouse]

6 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

Possibly a given that those who have been successful and done well out of the current system wish to retain the status quo.

I do think the EU debate/referendum has highlighted some major structural differences within the UK but it is now overshadowing those internal UK problems and will distract from them being dealt with.

Interesting article a couple of days ago by Gordon Brown - not exactly my favourite politician but some interesting incites and figures here:

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/uk-brexit-constitutional-convention-by-gordon-brown-2016-11

 

Very good article. Thanks for that!

[SgtRock]

Sound familiar:

 

Quote

If that bigger picture still dominates come polling day, it is hard to see anything but defeat for a man once billed as Italy’s Blair. After 13 years of a flatlining economy, Italians are battered, bruised and looking for somebody to blame. Unemployment is running at 11%, but is close to 40% among the young, who made up the bulk of the 107,000 who left the country last year to seek work abroad. The aftermath of the financial crash is estimated to have wiped out about a quarter of Italian industry. The average family income is less now than it was in 2007.

 

Quote

Traditionally among the most enthusiastic proponents of European integration, ordinary Italians are furious at the EU’s failure to share the burden of the huge migration surge to their southern shores. Lectures from Brussels on the need to cut public spending and balance budgets, given the desperately straitened times, have added insult to injury.

 

Quote

Paola Battistini, a shopworker from Ferrara who attended the Five Star rally, says: “We have already been screwed by the banks. The least of our problems is what the markets think about a No vote or a Renzi resignation. This country needs to start thinking again about focusing on the needs and lives of citizens, not the banks.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/27/matteo-renzi-politics-italy-european-union-brexit-trump

 

It is probably already too late, but just when will the EU wake up and start taking decisive action ?

 

 

[SgtRock]

 

Sterling, the best performing currency in November. Granted it was starting from a low baseline, that just highlights to me the over reaction in the markets to the Brexit vote.

 

Contrast that with the EUR.

 

Quote

The euro has fallen to its lowest level against the US dollar since March 2015, as the US currency continues to strengthen following the latest robust economic data.

 

Quote

Michael Hewson, of CMC Markets, said the euro could sink to parity against the US dollar.

To stabilise we need to see a recovery back through the 1.0730 area. If we can’t sustain a recovery we could well head towards new multi-year lows towards parity.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/euro-value-dollar-currency-exchange-rates-us-elections-rate-rise-a7436086.html

 

No need for fancy algorithm's on this one.

 

Hofer elected in Austria.

A '' No '' Vote in Italy

A Fed interest rate

 

Will see the EUR sinking like a stone.

[AlexRich]

1 hour ago, jpinx said:

 

Ah-ha -- the first to play the "inferiority complex" card shows that he is down to the last gambit of his failed strategy.  Unlike the remainers here, I feel no need to demonstrate or advertise my qualifications or experience.  There is no need to support one side or another in this debate, it is sufficient for me to lambast the arrogance displayed by some of the posters. 

 

When you're lambasting 'arrogance', are you looking in the mirror at the time?

[AlexRich]

1 hour ago, SgtRock said:

 

Does any of that address what I asked ? Which was:

 

 

Which came directly from here:

 

 

No, it does not in any way address what I asked.

 

So why take the time to reply ?

 

 

Quite simply, they voted in Governments that racked up debts, leaving a bill to be paid by future generations. Now we may have been able to lessen the blow to future generations by encouraging migrations, an injection of new taxpayers to mitigate the problem. But they voted to put the block on that because it was disturbing their dotage years. "I did it for my grandchildren" ... almost as big a lie as "£350m per week extra funding for the NHS". 

 

Why do you think the Tories are so keen to keep pensioners sweet ... there's lots of them and they vote. 

[AlexRich]

1 hour ago, SgtRock said:

Sound familiar:

 

 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/27/matteo-renzi-politics-italy-european-union-brexit-trump

 

It is probably already too late, but just when will the EU wake up and start taking decisive action ?

 

 

 

I'm looking forward to 4 December ... but with a 'no' vote Italy will still be in the EU and unlikely to leave. I recall the same predictions about Greece ... didn't happen.

 

[SgtRock]

21 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

 

 

Quite simply, they voted in Governments that racked up debts, leaving a bill to be paid by future generations. Now we may have been able to lessen the blow to future generations by encouraging migrations, an injection of new taxpayers to mitigate the problem. But they voted to put the block on that because it was disturbing their dotage years. "I did it for my grandchildren" ... almost as big a lie as "£350m per week extra funding for the NHS". 

 

Why do you think the Tories are so keen to keep pensioners sweet ... there's lots of them and they vote. 

 

Really ? Is that your answer ?

 

Let me enlighten you. If not one single person turned out to vote, the sitting Government would retain power. One way or another, there would still be a Government spending money whether they were voted for or not.

 

There are currently 31 million people classed as being in employment in the UK. However, the good old BofE predicts:

 

Quote

The Bank of England has warned that up to 15m jobs in Britain are at risk of being lost to an age of robots where increasingly sophisticated machines do work that was previously the preserve of humans.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/12/robots-threaten-low-paid-jobs-says-bank-of-england-chief-economist

 

So what the UK actually needs is a severe bout of depopulation, not bringing in even more people.

 

It might just be in the UK's interest to get rid on the freeze on pensions and encourage more pensioners to seeker better climes.

 

The pensioners need to be kept sweet because they are the group of people that consistently have the highest % that actually turns out to vote. The Pollies know this and the mantra is keep power whatever the cost.

 

Politicians not pensioners are the cause of the UK's debt problems.

 

And since you have a bee in your nappy about the triplelock on pensions and pensioners being responsible for the UK's debt problems. Have a guess at how many pensioners on their massive, triple locked state pension would actually qualify for a bank loan.

 

Yeah, you blame the pensioners. You are a hoot 

[SgtRock]

35 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

 

I'm looking forward to 4 December ... but with a 'no' vote Italy will still be in the EU and unlikely to leave. I recall the same predictions about Greece ... didn't happen.

 

 

If you had read the article, you would have seen that the most likely outcome will be a ''No'' vote followed by a referendum on EU membership.

 

Perhaps you missed this part:

 

Quote

Paola Battistini, a shopworker from Ferrara who attended the Five Star rally, says: “We have already been screwed by the banks. The least of our problems is what the markets think about a No vote or a Renzi resignation. This country needs to start thinking again about focusing on the needs and lives of citizens, not the banks.”

 

We do not care about politicians, banks or markets. Sound familiar ?

 

The Greece fiasco was purely Monetary and a different barrel of fish. In the long term I still think that the Greeks would have been better off telling the EU where to go.

 

I thought you would known that.

 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2016 by SgtRock

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, SgtRock said:

 

Sterling, the best performing currency in November. Granted it was starting from a low baseline, that just highlights to me the over reaction in the markets to the Brexit vote.

 

Contrast that with the EUR.

 

 

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/euro-value-dollar-currency-exchange-rates-us-elections-rate-rise-a7436086.html

 

No need for fancy algorithm's on this one.

 

Hofer elected in Austria.

A '' No '' Vote in Italy

A Fed interest rate

 

Will see the EUR sinking like a stone.

USD/GBP 0.8

 

1 year ago 0.65

 

23%

 

USD/EUR 0.94

 

1 year ago 0.94

 

Now I don't know if it's my privileged education or my advanced years but I infer from this that you are talking BS. 

 

If you are a currency trader, you will be interested in short term fluctuations. However, for the average person, it's meaningless.

 

There are much better ways of analysing the strength or weakness of Sterling but it's probably over your head ?

 

( rolling averages against a basket of currencies. Do you remember CM suggesting to you 200 days - That would give Sterling falling 15% at the Euro 6% against the USD)

 

Be very careful when quoting statistics. 

 

78% of statistics are just made up to make a point ?

[SgtRock]

23 minutes ago, Grouse said:

USD/GBP 0.8

 

1 year ago 0.65

 

23%

 

USD/EUR 0.94

 

1 year ago 0.94

 

Now I don't know if it's my privileged education or my advanced years but I infer from this that you are talking BS. 

 

If you are a currency trader, you will be interested in short term fluctuations. However, for the average person, it's meaningless.

 

There are much better ways of analysing the strength or weakness of Sterling but it's probably over your head ?

 

( rolling averages against a basket of currencies. Do you remember CM suggesting to you 200 days - That would give Sterling falling 15% at the Euro 6% against the USD)

 

Be very careful when quoting statistics. 

 

78% of statistics are just made up to make a point ?

 

The Cableguy is here WooHoo.

 

Reached parity yet ? You were so convinced I was getting ready to ship $$ back to the UK. 

 

You might also remember I suggested to CM that I would not be surprised to see it falling 30%. The figure being widely quoted as to how much Sterling was overvalued.

 

Did you miss my caveat ?

 

Quote

Sterling, the best performing currency in November. Granted it was starting from a low baseline, that just highlights to me the over reaction in the markets to the Brexit vote.

 

Seems to be a common affliction for some reason. I have to continually ask myself why so many people can have the same affliction 

 

Try again Cableguy.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2016 by SgtRock

[ilostmypassword]

"He [Johnson]... in the Brexit campaign, had leaflets showing Turkey, Syria and Iraq as possible members of the EU, making people afraid of the possible new migration waves... Then a few weeks afterwards he is travelling to [President] Erdogan and offering support for becoming a member of the EU. It is a purely arrogant provocation from Johnson when he is telling us what we have to do.

http://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-david-davis-arrogant-european-union-brexit-2016-11

[AlexRich]

1 hour ago, SgtRock said:

 

If you had read the article, you would have seen that the most likely outcome will be a ''No'' vote followed by a referendum on EU membership.

 

Perhaps you missed this part:

 

 

We do not care about politicians, banks or markets. Sound familiar ?

 

The Greece fiasco was purely Monetary and a different barrel of fish. In the long term I still think that the Greeks would have been better off telling the EU where to go.

 

I thought you would known that.

 

 

 

 

You're really scraping the barrel with your extensive research and evidential proofs ... "a shop worker from Ferrara who attended the 5 Star rally" ... that's your evidence of an Italian referendum on the Euro and the EU? Italians don't care about their economy? Having known a few in my time (but admittedly not a shop worker from Ferrara), I suggest that they care a great deal about their economy and future welfare. 

 

I expect Italy to vote no and Renzi to resign ... but I do not expect Italy to leave the EU any time soon ... another meltdown prediction from you ... nothing really changes. I'll stick around to hold you on your researched predictions ... I'll interview the Italian guy that works in the chippy when I visit my home town this Christmas ... | don't want to be accused of slacking on my research.

 

 

[SgtRock]

8 minutes ago, AlexRich said:

 

You're really scraping the barrel with your extensive research and evidential proofs ... "a shop worker from Ferrara who attended the 5 Star rally" ... that's your evidence of an Italian referendum on the Euro and the EU? Italians don't care about their economy? Having known a few in my time (but admittedly not a shop worker from Ferrara), I suggest that they care a great deal about their economy and future welfare. 

 

I expect Italy to vote no and Renzi to resign ... but I do not expect Italy to leave the EU any time soon ... another meltdown prediction from you ... nothing really changes. I'll stick around to hold you on your researched predictions ... I'll interview the Italian guy that works in the chippy when I visit my home town this Christmas ... | don't want to be accused of slacking on my research.

 

 

 

Not my research and not my words, if you have an issue with it take it up with the Guardian.

 

Might want to take it up with these guys also

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-20/currency-vigilantes-ready-to-strike-again-as-italian-vote-looms

 

Quote

I suggest that they care a great deal about their economy and future welfare. 

 

I am sure that they do. Which is why they would be better ditching the euro and quite possibly the EU, because it certainly does not seem to be doing them many favours.

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, SgtRock said:

 

The Cableguy is here WooHoo.

 

Reached parity yet ? You were so convinced I was getting ready to ship $$ back to the UK. 

 

You might also remember I suggested to CM that I would not be surprised to see it falling 30%. The figure being widely quoted as to how much Sterling was overvalued.

 

Did you miss my caveat ?

 

 

Seems to be a common affliction for some reason. I have to continually ask myself why so many people can have the same affliction 

 

Try again Cableguy.

 

 

 

 

 

What point are you making?

 

You're babbling man!

 

Get a grip!

 

Cable is 23% down from a year ago in XE.....

 

I already hedged

 

What "affliction" are you referring to?

 

Cheer up! The end is not nigh!

[AlexRich]

18 minutes ago, Grouse said:

 

What point are you making?

 

You're babbling man!

 

Get a grip!

 

Cable is 23% down from a year ago in XE.....

 

I already hedged

 

What "affliction" are you referring to?

 

Cheer up! The end is not nigh!

 

You got that wrong. He'll only cheer up when the end is nigh, he suffers from apocalypse syndrome, with countries in meltdown everywhere you look. 

[nontabury]

On November 25, 2016 at 1:09 PM, dick dasterdly said:

How is this sort of derogatory comment ever conducive to promoting genuine, intelligent discussion?

 

 

  What do you expect from a person who tries to insult another poster,Sgt Rock who supported Brexit, accusing him of being a Fifth columnist. When it is he who is plainly the Fifth columnist, continuenly  insulting the UK and British people.  It's just a pity he did'nt lead the remainers in the run up to the referendum, thus resulting in a 99% vote in favour of Brexit.

[nontabury]

On November 25, 2016 at 2:25 PM, billd766 said:

 

I agree with you 100%.

 

Grouse does not have a sense of humour.

 

That is why he is on my ignore list and I only see his posts if somebody answers him. I dont bother to comment on most of them either as, to me, he is not worth bothering with.

 

 

 

 That goes for me also.

[AlexRich]

7 hours ago, jpinx said:

 

I tried to get it closed down a wee while ago - but no response.  Some people even suggested that it's better with 2 threads on the same topic.  Crazy stuff.

 

Why would anyone "try" to have the thread closed down? Brexit is the gift that keeps on giving, there will only be another thread set up if this one is closed. This topic will run and run ... we haven't even triggered Article 50 yet.

[AlexRich]

3 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

"He [Johnson]... in the Brexit campaign, had leaflets showing Turkey, Syria and Iraq as possible members of the EU, making people afraid of the possible new migration waves... Then a few weeks afterwards he is travelling to [President] Erdogan and offering support for becoming a member of the EU. It is a purely arrogant provocation from Johnson when he is telling us what we have to do.

http://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-david-davis-arrogant-european-union-brexit-2016-11

 

Boris Johnson is proving to be the liability I expected. Everything that idiot touches turns to merd. Boris Island white elephant, London bikes, chair lift across the Thames ... he's an absolute dipstick ... he seems to think he's the successor to Churchill ... a disengenuous moron. Clever May, she's lined him up alongside the other two Charlie's as the Brexit fall guys. 

[nontabury]

18 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Whilst the stats are showing that more people had a university degree voted remain that doesn't mean that people without one are less informed and quite frankly more knowledgeable. The older generation voted to leave but the amount of people from them had less university degrees opportunities than now, by far. I have mentioned it before that all my friends besides one voted leave and we have a draw full of university degrees between us. Does this make us all more knowledgeable or even that we have a greater right to know what the consequences of Brexit was or if we stayed in the EU? The answer is no. People voted on their believe for what ever reason. This is the rhetoric often pushed by remoaners that brexit voters are somewhat inferior and less educated. They may have less degrees on paper but that means nothing. The truth could be said that from more mature people saying that the younger generation with their degrees, do not have the wealth of experience. I don't like the linking of university degrees to understanding and knowledge on politics and daily life. In fact I have met so many people with degrees and PhDs and they are the most dimwitted, uninteresting and oblivious to politics and life generally around them.

 

   I wonder how many of these had the opportunity to go to university, perhaps they were to busy elsewhere.

Yet we have some keyboard warriors on this thread implying they were Nazis.

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, nontabury said:

 

 

  What do you expect from a person who tries to insult another poster,Sgt Rock who supported Brexit, accusing him of being a Fifth columnist. When it is he who is plainly the Fifth columnist, continuenly  insulting the UK and British people.  It's just a pity he did'nt lead the remainers in the run up to the referendum, thus resulting in a 99% vote in favour of Brexit.

 

Kindly explain why you think I am fifth columnist? I want the UK to be successful.

 

How have I insulted the UK? I was shocked by Rotherham I must say.

 

So what exactly are you trying to say? You don't agree with my analysis and particularly my citing inequality as a contributory factor to the leave vote?

 

Speak up, you're a Yorkshireman aren't you?

Edited November 27, 2016 by Grouse

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, nontabury said:

 

 That goes for me also.

 

Delighted to hear that! ?

 

Just listen to what hat you want to hear. 

 

No no need to respond. Your actions speak for you.....

[Grouse]

27 minutes ago, nontabury said:

 

   I wonder how many of these had the opportunity to go to university, perhaps they were to busy elsewhere.

Yet we have some keyboard warriors on this thread implying they were Nazis.

 

What nonsense!

[AlexRich]

47 minutes ago, Grouse said:

 

What nonsense!

 

Yeah, for Queen and Country ... how many of them are alive today? Probably not that many. The crowd that did the damage came after ... the one's that never had a war that got in the way of their wealth building, property gains and pension benefits ... like the Lady from the Womens Institute in Little Britain, who projectile vomits at the sight or mention of a foreigner. Xenophobia among the elderly and shameless generation won the day.

 

 

[HauptmannUK]

The image with the graves is very cynical. Few of those who fought in WWII are still alive today. My father was born in 1920 and fought, as did his brother. They saw first-hand the devastation of war in Europe and like many old soldiers (and Churchill) were both very pro-European and pro-EU.  He died 10 years ago but I am sure he would have voted Remain.

Unfortunately its the 'I'm alright Jack now pull up the ladder' generation born post-war with their property portfolios and triple-locked pensions that have caused the problems. 

[SgtRock]

Who remembers that old song '' There may be trouble ahead '' ?

 

That bastion of truth and impartiality cited by the remoaners are now reporting:

 

Quote

Fears mount of multiple bank failures if Renzi loses referendum

 

Quote

Up to eight of Italy’s troubled banks risk failing if prime minister Matteo Renzi loses a constitutional referendum next weekend and ensuing market turbulence deters investors from recapitalising them, officials and senior bankers say.

 

Quote

The situation is being closely watched by financiers and policymakers across Europe and beyond, who worry that a mass failure of Italian banks could trigger panic across the eurozone banking system.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/e588ea6a-b49f-11e6-961e-a1acd97f622d

 

I am fairly certain that I posted weeks ago that a '' No '' vote was going to cause chaos for the EUR and the EZ.

 

Draw your own conclusions as to whether it is true or an attempt at fearmongering.

[SgtRock]

No doubt the source will be attacked by the 3 wise monkey's tribute act and the substance totally ignored.

 

Quote

The EU must compromise to win a Brexit deal that works for both the UK and the rest of Europe, the Polish Prime Minister warns today ahead of a historic meeting with Theresa May.

 

Quote

In today's article, Ms Szydlo promises Poland will be a "constructive partner" to the UK as it seeks to win a deal but in a warning to other EU states she said there must be a "good compromise" to guarantee "economic and security cooperation".

 

Her comments echo interventions by other eastern European nations.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/28/eu-must-compromise-win-good-brexit-deal-britain-rest-union-warns/

 

Which flies in the face of the declarations coming direct from the EU that ALL 27 EU members were united in trying to screw the UK to the wall over Brexit.

[Laughing Gravy]

21 hours ago, Grouse said:

 

I have 2 degrees ( proper ones) AND I'm over 60. So where does that leave me, Gravy? All that real world experience, all that education, but not so much future! I'm pro remain but consider my children (4) and grandchildren (3)....

Well I have 1 undergraduate and 2 post graduate degrees if we are calling it and they are proper ones also, spending 8 years at university. My point is it doesn't make me any better than the person who has none, to make a decision on what they believe or make them any better at that decision. I am pro leave and still have lost more to contribute to the country. With the recent proposals by the government we will (many) be working to we are 70. My argument is, that having a university degree doesn't make someone more intelligent to vote and have an opinion.

Edited November 28, 2016 by Laughing Gravy

[Laughing Gravy]

22 hours ago, Grouse said:

I'm pro remain but consider my children (4) and grandchildren (3)....

From your posts Grouse it would seem you believe in the EU for its trade. Similar to what the Common Market started out as and what we were lead to believe. I know you have said the EU isn't perfect but the EU is resistant to change, is not what it what its original concept was about. far too many countries are in it  with a few putting lots of revenue in and getting less a return. That along with the crippling bureaucracy and the dilution of cultures. It is these facts and others that I believe the UK is best out. If the original model of the Common Market, between the 8 countries was in place, then I would say yes to that.

[SgtRock]

7 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

From your posts Grouse it would seem you believe in the EU for its trade. Similar to what the Common Market started out as and what we were lead to believe. I know you have said the EU isn't perfect but the EU is resistant to change, is not what it what its original concept was about. far too many countries are in it  with a few putting lots of revenue in and getting less a return. That along with the crippling bureaucracy and the dilution of cultures. It is these facts and others that I believe the UK is best out. If the original model of the Common Market, between the 8 countries was in place, then I would say yes to that.

 

I do not believe that the EU is resistant to change. It is all for change, sadly the change that the EU envisages is not shared by member Countries, with the exception of Germany and France. We all know in which solitary direction the EU wishes to go.

 

Trade and business, here we go. Its all about the benefits of Trade and business. Which in itself is a good thing.

 

So let's see those business's volunteering to pick up the the £12 Billion a year tab, the 7 EU institutions disbanded and replaced by a solitary trading commission.

 

Of course none of that will happen because one of those institutions is an EU Parliament, which needs to be in place before a Federal States of Europe can happen. The other reason is that business's are more than happy to sit back and let the UK taxpayer fund what they are benefitting from.