May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[dick dasterdly]

6 hours ago, Grouse said:

 

Sterling has been supported by renewed hope that a sensible way forward will be found and that May has moved away from the stance taken at the conference. I see the floor holding at 1.22

 

Problem is what happens if inflation rises above say 3%? What does the bank do? Raise interest rates and risk recession?

 

Its good that WTO sees a smooth transition but resorting to WTO would be disastrous for FDI.

 

No, better to have confidential dialogue with key EU leaders about a sensible solution. 

Its impossible to believe that negotiations didn't start almost immediately after the shock brexit referendum result.

 

There are many questions, but those most likely to come to the fore in the near future (IMO) are:-

 

1)  How much is the EU be prepared to change to 'head off' a revolt in other paying countries (whose voters have similar concerns)?

2) How far would they be prepared to go in EU reform?

3) Assuming they decide to make changes - will they be enough for the Brit. government to think that they can safely put forward another referendum (based on those changes) that would likely result in a 'remain' vote?

 

If the EU is determined not to make any reforms, then it has no option other than to do its best to 'make an example' of the UK 'pour discourage les autres' - whilst having to also find a way to deal with the loss of one of the few contributing countries.

Edited October 27, 2016 by dick dasterdly

[dick dasterdly]

2 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

 

That's too funny! The only person who can get a poster suspended is the poster themselves!!!

 

Meanwhile, there doesn't seem to be much confidence surrounding the passporting issue:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-26/banks-likely-to-lose-passporting-with-brexit-u-k-official-says

 

Re. "The only person who can get a poster suspended is the poster themselves" - I agree.

 

Even when goaded, the poster has to do their best to ignore the heat of the moment and realise that they are being goaded deliberately in the hope (by the goader) of them being suspended.

 

We've seen in it many threads on various issues, and eventually those threads are closed as posters end up bickering about things entirely irrelevant to the important issues.

 

And yes, I've been guilty too - but hope I've learned by my mistakes.

[sandyf]

4 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

 

That's too funny! The only person who can get a poster suspended is the poster themselves!!!

 

Meanwhile, there doesn't seem to be much confidence surrounding the passporting issue:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-26/banks-likely-to-lose-passporting-with-brexit-u-k-official-says

 

I think it comes down to my previous post regarding TM, she has made indications of going in both directions. At the end of the day I think she will capitulate on the immigration issue in favour of the single market.

Just too many headaches in the other direction. Trouble is that everyone will get extremely nervous until there is some clear indication.

[dick dasterdly]

11 minutes ago, sandyf said:

I think it comes down to my previous post regarding TM, she has made indications of going in both directions. At the end of the day I think she will capitulate on the immigration issue in favour of the single market.

Just too many headaches in the other direction. Trouble is that everyone will get extremely nervous until there is some clear indication.

I'm not sure as the "immigration issue" is, I think, the main reason why so many voted brexit.  Which would make it a bit difficult to call for another referendum (and hope there will be a different result) if there is no change on this issue.

 

Not to mention that if the decision was handed to MPs and they ignored the main 'stumbling block' i.e. uncontrolled EU immigration from poor countries - they wouldn't stand much chance of being re-elected in those constituencies that voted brexit!

 

Having said this, the UK is not the only paying EU country whose voters are extremely unhappy with the open borders policy and consequently, I think the most likely EU change will be to amend this policy.

[Grouse]

Nissan IS going to invest again in U.K. and build two new models. Great!

 

BUT, what deal did May offer Ghosn? Why don't we know? Royal Perogative again?

[Grouse]

Looks like CETA going ahead. Could raise EU trade by 20%. Do we still want out of the single market? Don't be silly....

[chiang mai]

It looks like the Deutsche Bank driven Armageddon may not materialise after all, it seems they've just announced a profit:

 

"Troubled German lender Deutsche Bank a reported a surprise €256m (£229m) profit in the third quarter, compared with a loss of more than €6bn in the same period last year.

Deutsche outdid the expectations of analysts surveyed by Factset, who had predicted it would book a loss of €949m between July and September".

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/27/deutsche-bank-turns-surprise-profit/

[Khun Han]

2 hours ago, Grouse said:

TorFX a few minutes ago......

 

Sterling

The Pound strengthened across the board yesterday thanks to comments from junior ‘Brexit’ minister David Jones suggesting that both houses of parliament would get the chance to examine the government’s post-‘Brexit’ trade deal. The news hammered home the point made last week by a High Court lawyer, that any new EU trade deal would need to be ratified by parliament. Sterling rose in response to the development because parliament is seen as desiring a ‘soft Brexit’, whereby Britain would retain access to the single market, which most traders believe would benefit the domestic economy.

The big event on the calendar today is the third quarter UK GDP report, which is tipped to see quarterly growth slow from 0.7% to 0.3%. Anything above zero will probably prevent Sterling suffering any large losses, however, the potential for substantial gains appears somewhat muted – even if the figure smashes forecasts.

 

0.5% Growth:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37786467

[Grouse]

2 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

0.5% Growth:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37786467

 

Out by 0.2%; the lying, cheating bastards ?

[Khun Han]

1 hour ago, dick dasterdly said:

Re. "The only person who can get a poster suspended is the poster themselves" - I agree.

 

Even when goaded, the poster has to do their best to ignore the heat of the moment and realise that they are being goaded deliberately in the hope (by the goader) of them being suspended.

 

We've seen in it many threads on various issues, and eventually those threads are closed as posters end up bickering about things entirely irrelevant to the important issues.

 

And yes, I've been guilty too - but hope I've learned by my mistakes.

 

Yes, everyone has to learn to take a few deep breaths before commenting sometimes, the same as in any other social situation. And we've all failed to do so on occasion. But it doesn't get away from the fact that a small minority of posters on any forum like to play games, such as knowingly reporting posts for spurious reasons. One has recently gone into my ignore room for this very reason.

[Khun Han]

3 minutes ago, Grouse said:

 

Out by 0.2%; the lying, cheating bastards ?

 

Now, if I was the type of poster who likes to play games, I could report you for a language infraction .

[dick dasterdly]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

Looks like CETA going ahead. Could raise EU trade by 20%. Do we still want out of the single market? Don't be silly....

I don't think anyone wants out of the single market?

 

Many 'want out' of the open borders policy/closer integration/expanding EU control and the cost of the EU as a result of the ridiculous bureaucracy which not only resulted in two centres of parliament (so the government wastes money frequently moving headquarters) and the admin section coming up with ever more unnecessary ideas/policies to increase their empire.....

 

There are numerous more examples of money that is wasted on EU salaries/admin/empire building - but you get the drift.

 

The last thing those in control want to see is a reduction in their income or empires, which is why I think there's a good chance that they will address the open borders policy (disliked by most voters in paying countries) first.

 

Yes, this is likely to result in a reduction of their empire if the financial EU beneficiaries then decide to leave - but Greece is a good example as to why this is easier said than done.

[chiang mai]

26 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Yes, everyone has to learn to take a few deep breaths before commenting sometimes, the same as in any other social situation. And we've all failed to do so on occasion. But it doesn't get away from the fact that a small minority of posters on any forum like to play games, such as knowingly reporting posts for spurious reasons. One has recently gone into my ignore room for this very reason.

 

23 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Now, if I was the type of poster who likes to play games, I could report you for a language infraction .

 

We'll all get along just fine as long as we all play by the same set of rules, if you don't like that, don't play.

 

Here's the forum rules, in case you've never read them: http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/terms/.

 

If somebody wants to score points or win arguments by breaking them, I have no problem pressing the report button, simply, I want a level playing field - this post seen or not seen, that's the way it is.

[dick dasterdly]

31 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Yes, everyone has to learn to take a few deep breaths before commenting sometimes, the same as in any other social situation. And we've all failed to do so on occasion. But it doesn't get away from the fact that a small minority of posters on any forum like to play games, such as knowingly reporting posts for spurious reasons. One has recently gone into my ignore room for this very reason.

Perhaps I'm being naive (which is unusual for me as normally I'm a cynical bastard!), but I find it hard to believe there are many (if any) posters on Brit/EU threads who would goad other posters into being suspended.  Why bother?  Another thread on the same issue will come up almost immediately as its an ongoing situation - and there are many Brits and EU citizens on Thai Visa.

 

Yes, those affected have strong feelings - but its not the same as threads on another subject where it could be guaranteed that all threads would eventually be closed down because posters were unable to recognise that there was a deliberate campaign (by a couple of posters) to close the threads.

[ilostmypassword]

2 hours ago, Grouse said:

Nissan IS going to invest again in U.K. and build two new models. Great!

 

BUT, what deal did May offer Ghosn? Why don't we know? Royal Perogative again?

"The company said its decision follows government commitments to ensure that the plant remains competitive and secures 7,000 jobs. " That sounds to me like subsidies of some sort.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/10/27/world/europe/ap-eu-britain-economy.html

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, Khun Han said:

 

Now, if I was the type of poster who likes to play games, I could report you for a language infraction .

 

How very dare you!

1 hour ago, dick dasterdly said:

Perhaps I'm being naive (which is unusual for me as normally I'm a cynical bastard!), but I find it hard to believe there are many (if any) posters on Brit/EU threads who would goad other posters into being suspended.  Why bother?  Another thread on the same issue will come up almost immediately as its an ongoing situation - and there are many Brits and EU citizens on Thai Visa.

 

Yes, those affected have strong feelings - but its not the same as threads on another subject where it could be guaranteed that all threads would eventually be closed down because posters were unable to recognise that there was a deliberate campaign (by a couple of posters) to close the threads.

 

I genuinely don't notice. I speak my mind without fear or favour. I try to debate with equanimity.

 

I did suffer an unpleasant ad hominem attack a while ago which upset me. The Mods dealt with it and I am very grateful for that.

 

One thing we should all be alert to is cross cultural awareness. We have different acceptance levels of humour. As a Yorkshireman I have had to see the funny side of many grim things. I remember the time when .........?

[MJP]

1 minute ago, Grouse said:

 

How very dare you!

 

I genuinely don't notice. I speak my mind without fear or favour. I try to debate with equanimity.

 

I did suffer an unpleasant ad hominem attack a while ago which upset me. The Mods dealt with it and I am very grateful for that.

 

One thing we should all be alert to is cross cultural awareness. We have different acceptance levels of humour. As a Yorkshireman I have had to see the funny side of many grim things. I remember the time when .........?

 

I learned me a new word today.

[HauptmannUK]

1 hour ago, ilostmypassword said:

"The company said its decision follows government commitments to ensure that the plant remains competitive and secures 7,000 jobs. " That sounds to me like subsidies of some sort.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/10/27/world/europe/ap-eu-britain-economy.html

I work in the automotive sector and the rumour is that Mrs May promised to compensate Nissan should any tarif be applied to their exports into the EU so that they suffer no penalty due to Brexit (Nissan exports about 80% of its UK production - the greater part of that to the EU).  I anticipate that other manufacturers will be asking for similar treatment.  This could cost the government (taxpayer) a great deal of money and I don't see it as a sustainable policy.

One of the other bonkers ideas that's been proposed by this IQ-challenged government is the introduction of single-market 'Enterprise Zones' and 'Bonded Warehouses' for the automotive and aerospace industries.  These would basically be locations within the UK which would be allowed to remain in the single market.  I can't see it ever happening, but it shows how desperate they are that they can come up with an idea like that!

[SheungWan]

3 hours ago, Grouse said:

Nissan IS going to invest again in U.K. and build two new models. Great!

 

BUT, what deal did May offer Ghosn? Why don't we know? Royal Perogative again?

 

Nissan was hardly going to shift production while the UK is still in the EU and terms of exit unknown. Having the PM agree to pay a blank cheque for the negative consequences of BREXIT if and when, is good enough for now. Sure there is an issue now of precedence and other companies will have taken note.

[MJP]

6 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

 

Nissan was hardly going to shift production while the UK is still in the EU and terms of exit unknown. Having the PM agree to pay a blank cheque for the negative consequences of BREXIT if and when, is good enough for now. Sure there is an issue now of precedence and other companies will have taken note.

 

You'd have thought the drop in the Pound was justification enough. 

[ilostmypassword]

1 minute ago, MJP said:

 

You'd have thought the drop in the Pound was justification enough. 

Unfortunately the UK's Nissan operation is more of an assembly operation than a manufacturing one. That means that it has to import most of the parts for which it pays in devalued pounds. So the savings from  a devalued pound don't amount to much.

[SheungWan]

4 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

Unfortunately the UK's Nissan operation is more of an assembly operation than a manufacturing one. That means that it has to import most of the parts for which it pays in devalued pounds. So the savings from  a devalued pound don't amount to much.

 

I think what we are talking about here is not so much the exchange rate of sterling which cannot be fixed by the government, nor the costs of imported parts, which are variables which any company has to absorb. The issue is the additional costs of exportation to the single market which may be imposed by the EU as a result of the UK's withdrawal.

[Grouse]

17 minutes ago, MJP said:

 

You'd have thought the drop in the Pound was justification enough. 

 

Not really

 

many high value components are imported 

 

It's a Japanese company that quotes it's profits in Yen. We're making them peddle harder for nothing......

[ilostmypassword]

8 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

 

I think what we are talking about here is not so much the exchange rate of sterling which cannot be fixed by the government, nor the costs of imported parts, which are variables which any company has to absorb. The issue is the additional costs of exportation to the single market which may be imposed by the EU as a result of the UK's withdrawal.

No, they aren't variables which any company has to absorb.  It depends on the how big the devaluation is and how much of production depends on imported parts.  The higher either number is, the less able a company is to absorb the costs.

[sandyf]

5 hours ago, Grouse said:

Nissan IS going to invest again in U.K. and build two new models. Great!

 

BUT, what deal did May offer Ghosn? Why don't we know? Royal Perogative again?

A soft brexit is a fairly safe bet, compensation was mentioned but a bit of a headache on both parties. Certainly the best news for a while.

[sandyf]

5 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

I'm not sure as the "immigration issue" is, I think, the main reason why so many voted brexit.  Which would make it a bit difficult to call for another referendum (and hope there will be a different result) if there is no change on this issue.

 

Not to mention that if the decision was handed to MPs and they ignored the main 'stumbling block' i.e. uncontrolled EU immigration from poor countries - they wouldn't stand much chance of being re-elected in those constituencies that voted brexit!

 

Having said this, the UK is not the only paying EU country whose voters are extremely unhappy with the open borders policy and consequently, I think the most likely EU change will be to amend this policy.

The referendum was to leave the EU so basically that is all brexit means. Everything else is speculative interpretation depending on where you want to stand.

Chances are she will come away with something similar to the Cameron deal that never happened.

The next election is an interesting issue, I suspect that may be held before the final outcome is announced.

[SheungWan]

51 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

No, they aren't variables which any company has to absorb.  It depends on the how big the devaluation is and how much of production depends on imported parts.  The higher either number is, the less able a company is to absorb the costs.

 

'How big' and 'how much' are variables. Has to absorb is a given. Able to absorb (not the same) well that is a risk. Whatever......May can 'promise' to cover extra administrative costs associated with Brexit ie additional taxation. She might want to give assurances about the government's comfort level with sterling, but that does not extend to covering currency losses by any company.

[ilostmypassword]

Just now, SheungWan said:

 

'How big' and 'how much' are variables. Has to absorb is a given. Able to absorb (not the same) well that is a risk. Whatever......May can 'promise' to cover extra administrative costs associated with Brexit ie additional taxation. She might want to give assurances about the government's comfort level with sterling, but that does not extend to covering currency losses by any company.

No, it doesn't have to absorb. It can raise the price.  And if the burden of devaluation and increased tariffs prove to be too much, that's what they'll have to do. Nissan doesn't make cars because it suffers from a case of OCD. It does it to make a profit.

[SheungWan]

9 minutes ago, sandyf said:

The referendum was to leave the EU so basically that is all brexit means. Everything else is speculative interpretation depending on where you want to stand.

Chances are she will come away with something similar to the Cameron deal that never happened.

The next election is an interesting issue, I suspect that may be held before the final outcome is announced.

 

If May was fully in control maybe, but the tension with the hard Brexiteers in her cabinet makes things far more difficult as to outcome.

[SheungWan]

Just now, ilostmypassword said:

No, it doesn't have to absorb. It can raise the price.  And if the burden of devaluation and increased tariffs prove to be too much, that's what they'll have to do. Nissan doesn't make cars because it suffers from a case of OCD. It does it to make a profit.

 

No they have to absorb. That doesn't proscribe a company from raising prices of course to offset additional costs, but that is a separate action. The efficacy of raising prices and to what extent is dependent on a number of other variables and not always viable.