US election: campaign heads into final weekend

[rooster59]

US election: campaign heads into final weekend

 

 

The ongoing soap opera of the US presidential election is heading into its final weekend. Precious time for the candidates to convince any remaining undecided voters, who have until Tuesday to cast their ballots. Euronews’ Mark Davis spoke to our Washington correspondent Stefan Grobe to get the latest on the race for the White House.

 

Mark Davis, Euronews: ‘‘Stefan, there aren’t many opinion polls left, but what do the latest ones tell us?’‘

 

Stefan Grobe, Euronews Washington Correspondent:
‘‘Mark, in the final days of this election campaign public polling has settled into a quite consistent narrative and that is, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump nationally and in most key states, but by a narrower margin than last month. That being said, is she assured of victory, no. Do the latest polls over state the sudden fluctuations to the American people. Probably yes. Bottom line, we’re probably looking at a close election that looks more like Bush vs Gore in 2004, than the blow out victories of Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. Now there’s some buzz that I’m hearing among professional campaign watchers and that is Hillary Clinton will be carrying Nevada, North Carolina, Virginia and Pennsylvania, all states where she seems to have a consistent lead. If that happens, Trump can win Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire and still lose the election. So election night could actually be quite boring.’‘

 

Mark Davis, Euronews: ‘‘Donald Trump’s wife, Melania has made a rare campaign speech late into the campaign, in Pennsylvania. Tell us more about the significance of that state.’‘

 

Stefan Grobe, Euronews Washington Correspondent:
‘‘Well, Pennsylvania has been an absolutely crucial part of the Democratic firewall for decades and has been some sort of fools gold for Republicans. Republicans always believe they can win here because of the rural vote but the last time they did it was in 1988, so Trump needs Pennsylvania badly.

That’s why your saw Melania Trump here, that’s why the Clinton’s have chosen Philadelphia to appear together with the Obama’s on the eve of the election. This is a city that Obama carried by a 70 point margin, thanks to the African American vote. And Hillary Clinton needs these exact same numbers. Melania Trump was deployed in a county outside Philadelphia, where Mitt Romney actually won, to shore up support among white college educated suburban women. That’s a group that favours Clinton right now, so if Trump can limit his losses in the Philly suburbs, and if the African American turn out is low in Philly, then Trump believes he has a very serious shot.’‘

 

Mark Davis, Euronews: ‘‘But, talking of the candidates’ spouses, Bill Clinton is also rallying to his wife’s cause. But, what role does Bill play in all this campaign?’‘

 

Stefan Grobe, Euronews Washington Correspondent:
‘‘Well, as we said he has been very actively campaigning for her and I have actually seen him at several events and actually interviewed him in New Hampshire earlier this year. I saw him again in Virginia. I mean he’s getting older but there’s still some sort of the Clinton magic and people are still flocking to his events. The interesting question will be what will be his role in a future Hillary Clinton administration if she gets elected. She herself has said that Bill Clinton will be taking care of some sort of economic recovery programme, job creation, and she said this is stuff that he knows about. I don’t see Bill really as a typical first husband – or first dude as many people call him already – in the White House who picks the china for state dinners, or something like that. He will certainly play a more active role than first ladies before him. By the way, to avoid confusion in a future Clinton White House, his title will probably be Governor Clinton, because this was the last title, the highest title he had before becoming president, and this is to avoid confusion if somebody says President Clinton and you have two people looking up all of a sudden.’‘

 

Mark Davis, Euronews: ‘‘Now the campaign has been more about personal attacks and poisonous rhetoric rather than informed debate. What are we to make of concerns that this bad-mouthing might degenerate into something even uglier once the results come out?’‘

 

Stefan Grobe, Euronews Washington Correspondent:
‘‘Well, Mark, that is a big fear that many Americans have and the Department of Justice have announced that they will send monitors to five counties in North Carolina – that’s a clear sign that they are worried. We have already seen some real violence in Mississippi this week where a black church was burned and spray painted with vote Trump. This is very troubling of course. We have also heard from neo-Nazi groups and various factions of the Ku Klux Klan, who announced that they would watch polling stations in places like Richmond, Philadelphia, Detroit, or would try to induce African Americans to stay home on election day by handing out liquor or Marijuana. This activity has the potential for serious conflicts of all sorts, especially if the election results are close.’‘

 

Mark Davis, Euronews: ‘‘Now, Stefan I’ll be joining you in New York this weekend. Both Clinton and Trump are holding their election night rallies in New York, but Trump’s is not in Trump Tower. Is that a surprise, given that Trump Tower is kind of the jewel in the Trump crown.’‘

 

Stefan Grobe, Euronews Washington Correspondent:
‘‘Yeah, you’re absolutely right Mark, and I’m looking forward to working with you together from New York city. It is by the way, I think this is unique that both presidential candidates will be in the same city on the night of the election. Why not Trump Tower? I think they are trying to protect the brand from the campaign and from a potential loss. That’s why they moved their evening party to the Hilton Hotel in mid-town Manhattan, a surprisingly small venue, now you can read a lot of things into it. One of them could be that they think, you know, they’re not going to win this thing. Also, this is by invitation only, so we’re certainly not seeing a spontaneous crowd of supporters going to see Trump that night, this will be very very scripted and very very controlled. The Clinton campaign has chosen the Jacob Javits Convention Centre, which is only a few avenues away from the Hilton Hotel. This is a much much bigger venue and it has, interestingly a glass roof, so talking about Hillary Clinton, you know, advocating shattering of the glass ceiling by electing the first woman president, that is certainly a very very strong symbol. You can only hope that Clinton supporters will not find that glass ceiling as being a Plexiglass ceiling on election night.’‘

 

 

-- © Copyright Euronews 2016-11-05

[Silurian]

2 hours ago, rooster59 said:

We have also heard from neo-Nazi groups and various factions of the Ku Klux Klan, who announced that they would watch polling stations in places like Richmond, Philadelphia, Detroit, or would try to induce African Americans to stay home on election day by handing out liquor or Marijuana

 

There it is. Voter intimidation. Heck, first go vote, go home, change clothes and go back for some free booze and drugs. Those neo-Nazis won't know any better. They can't tell African Americans apart anyway.

[NovaBlue05]

The Philly skinheads would find it easier to take a page from Black Panther Party 2008 playbook and simply stand outside the polling stations with clubs menacing the voters

[Credo]

And the AP is reporting that Melania Trump was working in the US before she had a work visa.   I wonder if Donald will have her in a cell next to Hillary?

[Stargeezr]

I like listening to a cowboy in Arizona, who said that a person could hate

Donald Trump, but at least if he gets elected, he would do something.

  Hillary would not  get the cowboy vote  as she had the chances to do

lots, but did not.  Good Luck America, you could have had Bernie  for

one term  but you blew that.

Geezer

[Jingthing]

4 minutes ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

I like listening to a cowboy in Arizona, who said that a person could hate

Donald Trump, but at least if he gets elected, he would do something.

  Hillary would not  get the cowboy vote  as she had the chances to do

lots, but did not.  Good Luck America, you could have had Bernie  for

one term  but you blew that.

Geezer

Congrats on watching BBC.

He would do something alright. Something VILE. 

Like kick off over 20 million Americans off their health insurance.

Like pick supreme court justices that would make abortion and same sex marriage illegal.

Like build that stupid wall that Mexico most certainly won't pay for.

Like break up millions of Latino families with racist deportation policies reminiscent of Operation Wetback. 

Edited November 5, 2016 by Jingthing

[Opl]

" “We have three major voter suppression operations under way,” the unidentified senior official told Bloomberg, explaining that the efforts are targeting white liberals, young women and black voters."

- One tactic is aimed at “idealistic” liberals who supported Senator Bernie Sanders highlights Hillary Clinton‘s support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal, or TPP.

- Another focuses on the women who’ve come forward to accuse former president Bill Clinton of sexual assault — a tactic designed to suppress the female vote.

- In regards to black voters, the senior official said the GOP nominee and his campaign are highlighting Clinton’s 1996 comments referring to some young black criminals as “super predators.”

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-27/inside-the-trump-bunker-with-12-days-to-go

 

[Publicus]

 

Here's the tracking poll that after Comey's Coup letter to Republicans in the U.S. House had Trump up by 1 point...

 

 

Clinton Leads Trump By 4 Points In Washington Post: ABC News Poll

 

November 4, 2016

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 4 percentage points in a four-war race for the Nov. 8 election, according to a Washington Post-ABC News opinion poll of likely voters released on Friday.

 

Clinton had 47 percent support compared with Trump’s 43 percent in the poll conducted from Monday to Thursday, the Post said. It said Clinton’s lead was up from 3 points in the previous day’s poll but still “within the range of sampling error.”

 

http://www.oann.com/clinton-leads-trump-by-4-points-in-washington-post-abc-news-poll/

 

 

 

Comey's Coup is backfiring and exploding in the face of both he the Republican Party which Comey has attempted to promote and to assist in the final hours of this Potus election campaign.

 

 

 

Clinton maintains narrow lead over Trump in 4 battleground states

 

November 4, 2016,

 

Hillary Clinton maintained narrow leads over Donald Trump in four battleground states and overtook him in another, polls released Friday showed, as both nominees polished their closing arguments in mad dashes across the nation just four days before the election.

 

Clinton held her edges in New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and pulled ahead in Nevada, Public Policy Polling surveys in five key states showed.

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/clinton-maintains-narrow-lead-trump-battleground-states-article-1.2858576

 

 

 

Key state polling numbers released several hours ago are returning to their pre Comey Coup attempt leads by HRC or leads by Donald Trump, respectively, in each the Blue states and the Red states as presented....

 

 

Here are the latest state polls from the presidential race:

 

New Hampshire: Clinton 48%, Trump 43% (PPP)

Virginia: Clinton 45%, Trump 38%, Johnson 5% (Roanoke College)

 

Georgia: Trump 48%, Clinton 46%, Johnson 4% (Landmark)

 

Missouri: Trump 52%, Clinton 41% (PPP)

 

Iowa: Trump 44%, Clinton 41%, Johnson 5% (RABA Research)  

 

Nevada: Clinton 48%, Trump 45% (PPP)

 

Wisconsin: Clinton 48%, Trump 41% (PPP)

 

Pennsylvania: Clinton 48%, Trump 44% (PPP)

 

North Carolina: Clinton 49%, Trump 47% (PPP)

So -- as we were.

 

Edited November 5, 2016 by Publicus
Revise format and also text for precision.

[Jingthing]

Also encouraging is that Hillary's realclearpolitics lead is bigger in the 4 way race including the fools Stein and Johnson than the one on one. In reality it is a 4 way race.

 

But it's for real now. It's TURNOUT time!

 

Quote

Democratic insiders: Clinton's ground game will sink Trump

 

 

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/democratic-insiders-hillarys-ground-game-will-sink-trump-230718

 

[lannarebirth]

3 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Also encouraging is that Hillary's realclearpolitics lead is bigger in the 4 way race including the fools Stein and Johnson than the one on one. In reality it is a 4 way race.

 

But it's for real now. It's TURNOUT time!

 

 

 

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/democratic-insiders-hillarys-ground-game-will-sink-trump-230718

 

 

On election day, 5 points I think. Probably electoral blowout but that's a little bit in flux.

[Jingthing]

I really don't know for sure. 

If the republicans had run Kasich, it would be a Kasich landslide.

But they didn't. They ran the nutcase.

[Publicus]

4 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

I really don't know for sure. 

If the republicans had run Kasich, it would be a Kasich landslide.

But they didn't. They ran the nutcase.

 

Hillary and Kaine would have beat Kasich.

 

Kasich is a hard right conservative with a puppy dog face that softens his politics. Kasich would have won Ohio but Trump is going to win it anyway on the white male vote in the state overwhelming opposition voters. K in OH does not get minority voters, but he does attract hordes of white independent racists too.

 

Kasich as the R nominee would have had to take a right winger as his vp, such as Mike Huckabee or even, conceivably, Ben Carson, to satisfy the lunar and evangelical base of the 2016 Republican Party to which Kasich has zero appeal.

 

K might have been personally tempted to take Carly Fiorina to appear more centrist or phony liberal/moderate, however, the Party would never have allowed it anyway.

 

In this year of a Clinton on the November ballot, all the Republicans over there were losers from the day each of 'em announced way back in the middle of last year. 

[Jingthing]

We'll never know, will we?

Kasich is indeed a right winger, but he puts a friendly face on it and Americans tend to be fooled by that, especially considering the U.S. is a majority center RIGHT nation anyway.

The reason I think Kasich would have creamed Hillary is that Hillary does indeed have serious flaws that would have sunk any nominee in any NORMAL election year.

But look who she's running against.

That's the main reason she's still the favorite. 

[Chicog]

The end is in sight thankfully:

 

Quote

All the polls with the exception of Alaska will have closed by 4am, and in the 2012 election the Associated Press had called results for the vast majority of states by 5am.

 

Which is about the time I have my morning cuppa.

[CaptHaddock]

35 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

We'll never know, will we?

Kasich is indeed a right winger, but he puts a friendly face on it and Americans tend to be fooled by that, especially considering the U.S. is a majority center RIGHT nation anyway.

The reason I think Kasich would have creamed Hillary is that Hillary does indeed have serious flaws that would have sunk any nominee in any NORMAL election year.

But look who she's running against.

That's the main reason she's still the favorite. 

 

HRC would have beaten any of those putzes, because the Obama coalition is intact with the blue firewall, etc.  The problem that the Republican party has is finding a candidate with popular appeal who supports the policies of the billionaire donor class, which are, as it happens, opposed to the very same masses.  Sometimes they can pull it off with an Uncle Reagan or the you'd-like-have-a-beer-with-him Bush, but the fundamental contradiction between the two essential elements of a modern political party, the money people and the voters, is unsolvable.

 

Anyway, HRC will win on Tues. and the odds are the Dems will take the Senate also.  So, I'm happy although not as happy as I will be when it is over.

[elgordo38]

Thank God. I am trying to contact someone from one of my favorite shows Z Nation to come and "mercy me"

[Chicog]

Ooops I should have added that those are UK times so add 7 hours for Thailand.

[Publicus]

 

It's pretty much a wrap of state polling.

 

This is virtually the final set of polls as there isn't time enough now for pollsters to conduct and process poll findings between now and Tuesday. There might be another few state polls appearing, but only very few if any state polls.

 

There will almost exclusively be only the private in-campaign 24-7 continuous polling by each campaign, so we might look for the candidate with the real smile and the one with the smile pasted on.

 

So below is the polling week that was by the final dayze of Wednesday, Thursday, Friday to include releases on Friday night USA time.  

 

 

They are by day of release. Day by day tells us how the early part of the week Blue base states had begun to slip away from HRC, then how by Friday Democratic Party base states had come back to her again...

 

Here in one big gulp are the FINAL state polls from the campaign for President, 2016:

 

Released Wednesday:

 

 

Colorado: Clinton 45%, Trump 44%, Johnson 5% (Trafalgar)

Colorado: Clinton 39%, Trump 39%, Johnson 5% (University of Denver)

Colorado: Clinton 44%, Trump 34%, Johnson 9% (University of Colorado)

North Carolina: Trump 49%, Clinton 44%, Johnson 4% (Trafalgar)

New Hampshire: Trump 40%, Clinton 39%, Johnson 10% (WBUR)

New Hampshire: Clinton 44%, Trump 44%, Johnson 5% (UMass Lowell)

Iowa: Trump 44%, Clinton 41%, Johnson 5% (RABA Research)

Pennsylvania: Clinton 46%, Trump 46%, Johnson 2% (Harper)

Arizona: Trump 45%, Clinton 40%, Johnson 9% (NBC/WSJ/Marist) 

Arizona: Trump 47%, Clinton 39%, Johnson 4% (Data Orbital)

Georgia: Trump 49%, Clinton 45%, Johnson 6% (Opinion Savvy) 

Michigan: Clinton 44%, Trump 44%, Johnson 4% (Strategic National)

 

Released Thursday: 

 

New Hampshire: Trump 48%, Clinton 43% (American Research Group)

New Hampshire: Trump 42%, Clinton 42% (Boston Globe/Suffolk)

Michigan: Clinton 47%, Trump 44%, Johnson 4% (Mitchell) 

Michigan: Clinton 42%, Trump 38% (EPIC-MRA)

Utah: Trump 37%, Clinton 31%, McMullin 24% (Monmouth)

Utah: Trump 42%, Clinton 31%, McMullin 21% (Rasmussen) 

Missouri: Trump 52%, Clinton 41% (PPP)

Iowa: Trump 44%, Clinton 41%, Johnson 4% (Emerson)

 

Released Friday:

 

New Hampshire: Clinton 48%, Trump 43% (PPP)

Nevada: Clinton 48%, Trump 45% (PPP) 

Wisconsin: Clinton 44%, Trump 38%, Johnson 7% (Loras College)

Wisconsin: Clinton 48%, Trump 41% (PPP)

Pennsylvania: Clinton 48%, Trump 44% (PPP)

North Carolina: Clinton 49%, Trump 47% (PPP) 

Virginia: Clinton 45%, Trump 38%, Johnson 5% (Roanoke College) 

Virginia: Clinton 48%, Trump 43%, Johnson 1% (PPP)

Georgia: Trump 48%, Clinton 46%, Johnson 4% (Landmark)

New Mexico: Clinton 46%, Trump 43%, Johnson 7% (Zia Poll) 

Michigan: Clinton 46%, Trump 41%, Johnson 5% (PPP) 

Colorado: Clinton 48%, Trump 43%, Johnson 4% (PPP) 

Arizona: Clinton 45%, Trump 44%, Johnson 7% (Saguaro Strategies)

Georgia: Trump 45%, Clinton 44%, Johnson 8% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)

Texas: Trump 49%, Clinton 40%, Johnson 6% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)

 

Btw, some people think that on Tuesday night as the tallies roll in, we all might get bored....

 

Playbook: “Here’s one theory bouncing around the reporter and political campaign consultant world: Despite the recent tightening of the race, election night could be super boring.

 

If Nevada political guru Jon Ralston is right — and he usually is — Hillary Clinton has all but won that state. If she takes Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Virginia — all states where she seems to have a lead, or is building one through early voting — Donald Trump can win Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire and still lose.”

 

 

Thing is, any ordinary genius would know HRC will win in Blue Wisconsin, that she's regained a solid lead in Blue Colorado and also in Blue New Hampshire. Yes, Purple Ohio is going for Trump but Purple Florida remains in the air. Trump loses FL he definitely loses the election then and there. Bet your life on the FL consequence to each campaign. HRC can afford to lose FL but Trump cannot afford to lose FL. Again, FL remains unknown at this moment so HRC could still win it. 

Edited November 5, 2016 by Publicus
Spacing

[dunroaming]

Nearly there and no silver lining in sight.  I know we have chewed this over many times but it is worth saying one more time.

 

Let's forget about the character of the candidate and focus on what they will likely do.  With Clinton it will be pretty much the same as Obama and let's be sensible, she will not start world war three and nor will Putin.  With Trump then it is all unknown.  He is certainly volatile which in itself is worrying but when it comes to it will he be all hot air and bluster.  Will he build the wall? Will he pull out of Nato? Will he pull the USA out of the climate change agreements?  Will he ban abortions and start deporting Latinos?  Will he turn his back on trade deals as he has said? 

 

With Trump it is all questions at the moment as nobody knows what he will really, actually do.  Words are easy and will whip up the mob but that is very different from doing it.  Will he follow the republican rule book and stick to their policies?

[freebyrd]

Thanks Christ this circus will soon be leaving town, unfortunately that means the real nonsense will start. Personally, I'm resigned to at least 4 years of changing channels and looking for the nearest pile of sand to bury my head in whoever wins. They are both despicable people, only her experience makes her slightly more acceptable than the clapping clown who will be Duterte x 10, and for the most powerful office that's a frightening prospect.

[Publicus]

 

It would be a mistake to think the Clinton constituency of this election is indifferent or disinterested in voting.
 

 

James Hohmann: “Our fresh Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll, which has Hillary Clinton ahead by [4] points among all likely voters nationally, finds that Donald Trump is losing college-educated white women by 27 points.”

 

“If the Republican nominee was anywhere close to Romney’s 52 percent support level among this traditionally Republican-leaning constituency, he would likely win the election. But drilling into the crosstabs of our polling and reviewing credible, state-level data demonstrates how highly unlikely it is that this constituency will waver in the final days. It is one of the reasons that, even though the race has tightened pretty dramatically, Clinton retains a significant structural advantage.”

 

 

It is also the case that in a big difference election which is exactly what this one is, people want to vote. They want to cast their vote to be personally expressive and candidate supportive.

 

The bigger the issues and the difference between the candidates the bigger the vote. It's virtually a rule. 

 

Which includes voting against an ignoramus wildman radical. 

[Boon Mee]

 DON’T COUNT THE VAMPIRE DEAD UNTIL YOU’VE PUT A STAKE THROUGH ITS HEART AND CUT OFF ITS HEAD: Hillary won’t survive another WikiLeaks dump.

[Publicus]

 

Since 1900 in the contest for Potus, the winner in every election is also the winner of the two-party vote.

 

Here is the projection of the Tuesday voting result based on the two-party vote. Hillary Clinton is projected the winner of the two-party only vote. Clinton is therefore projected to win the election Tuesday.

 

As of November 5, 2016, the PollyVote predicts Clinton to garner 52.9% of the two-party popular vote (Trump: 47.1%).

 

52.9

Clinton

47.1

Trump

 

http://pollyvote.com/en/category/forecasting-method/pollyvote/

 

 

The two-party vote formula includes only Republican voters and Democratic voters. Independents do not matter in the statistic. Not ever since 1900, and not now either.

 

An example of the two-party vote is the early voting in Florida. SmartTarget  pollster in partnership with NBC News found that 28% of early voting Republican women voted for HRC. This gives Hillary Clinton a greater share/percentage of the two party vote in Florida. (Subtract from Trump 28% of the vote by Republican women, in Florida. Add it to the Democrat Clinton.)

 

Project the data nationwide in actual voting, and we have the candidate who gets the greater share of the two-party vote. HRC is projected at almost 53% of it. (The range since 1900 is 55% - 45%.) 

 

In 2012 OB won 52.0% of the two-party only vote. In 2008 OB won 53.7% of the two-party vote. The winning course dates back to, as has been noted, every election of the Potus since 1900. 

 

It is an 'inside baseball' stat.

[dunroaming]

As predicted because there is no more news on the email front Hillary is edging ahead again.   Surely the best outcome is elect her and then impeach her.  That way you get rid of both of them and then hang on for Michelle in four years time

[Jingthing]

As predicted because there is no more news on the email front Hillary is edging ahead again.   Surely the best outcome is elect her and then impeach her.  That way you get rid of both of them and then hang on for Michelle in four years time

Michelle has shown no such interest. Forget about it.

[dunroaming]

30 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Michelle has shown no such interest. Forget about it.

 

Not yet but as sure as eggs is eggs...

[JHolmesJr]

1 hour ago, Boon Mee said:

 DON’T COUNT THE VAMPIRE DEAD UNTIL YOU’VE PUT A STAKE THROUGH ITS HEART AND CUT OFF ITS HEAD: Hillary won’t survive another WikiLeaks dump.

 

.... you cant help but feel that julian is saving the best for last. 

Edited November 5, 2016 by JHolmesJr

[Jingthing]

21 minutes ago, JHolmesJr said:

 

.... you cant help but feel that julian is saving the best for last. 

It's really late and history shows surprises this late do NOT change elections. So I'm guessing he's smart enough to know that and does NOT have the goods.

[Jingthing]

41 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

 

Not yet but as sure as eggs is eggs...

I'll take that bet. I think she'll do something public but not political office. 

[dunroaming]

1 minute ago, Jingthing said:

I'll take that bet. I think she'll do something public but not political office. 

 

Look Jingthing, I have already said I will eat my hat if Trump wins.  I figured it was a safe bet at the time but now every time I look at it, it looks a lot bigger than I thought!  Let's get Tuesday out of the way and then I will consider it.