GDP growth this year at 3.2-3.3%

 

 

BANGKOK: -- Commercial banks are confident of 3.2-3.3% growth this year.

 

Economic growth this year will stay around 3.2-3.3%, state and commercial  bank executives said.

 

Kasikorn bank president Kattiya Indaravijaya said overall projection for the economy in 2017 shows signs of experiencing similar levels of growth as 2016.

 

Hence, the 3.3% growth can be realistically expected driven primarily by the increase in investments from the government as well as the private sector, she said.

 

Furthermore the fact that tourism continues to enjoy an expansion of 4.8% and current export growth of 0.8%, although small, will no doubt contribute to next year’s growth.

 

But she warned that the global economic situation and domestic household debt must be kept under close monitoring.

 

Meanwhile Government Savings bank president and CEO Chatchai Payuhanaveechai said that the general outlook for Thailand’s economy for the remainder of the year is positive with expectations of growth of approximately 3.1%.

 

He attributed this to an increase in domestic purchasing power, tourism and government investments.

 

He said exports however remain sluggish but also stated that there were strong signs of improvement when compared to the earlier part of the year.

 

Full story: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/gdp-growth-this-year-at-3-2-3-3/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2016-11-30

Just another pick a number day. 

By regional comparisons, appalling.  However, I blame demographics as the principal cause.  This is an ageing country and economic growth follows population expansion and young workers.

Growth this year at 3.2-3.3  Percent  and the Central bank is gong to give each Thai citizen 

100,000 baht once it reached that growth target 

Madame bank president warns that  the global economic situation must be closely monitored. So the scene is set that if things go pear shaped then the the rest of the world can be blamed. International economic agencies put the Thai growth rate to be in the 2.9 - 3.1% range.

She forgets to proudly mention that Thailand's economic growth is about half that of most neighbouring countries. 

10 hours ago, webfact said:

and current export growth of 0.8%, although small, will no doubt contribute to next year’s growth.

 

And there was me reading just a few days ago that exports had declined in the first 10 months of the year.

 

But the private sector remains optimistic that exports for the whole year will contract less than 1%.

 

But exports figures for the first 10 month period however showed a drop of only 1% which is significantly better than the overall export statistic which fell by 4.1%.

Edited November 30, 20169 yr by Anthony5

I don't believe that the government will not allow any reported growth rate less than last year of 2.8%; otherwise all its economic stimulus for 2016 would have proven nonproductive and a waste of debt. In fact most of the government spending has been for infrastructure projects that will take several years to build and 10-20 years of operation to payout revenues - as such they contribute little to GDP growth.

 

So I expect a government announcement at year end of 3-3.2% to save face. Anything less, no matter how truthful it may be, will only damage the nation's (aka Junta's) economic creditability and smear the nation's reputation. So "good" reporting must prevail.

2 hours ago, Srikcir said:

I don't believe that the government will not allow any reported growth rate less than last year of 2.8%; otherwise all its economic stimulus for 2016 would have proven nonproductive and a waste of debt. In fact most of the government spending has been for infrastructure projects that will take several years to build and 10-20 years of operation to payout revenues - as such they contribute little to GDP growth.

 

So I expect a government announcement at year end of 3-3.2% to save face. Anything less, no matter how truthful it may be, will only damage the nation's (aka Junta's) economic creditability and smear the nation's reputation. So "good" reporting must prevail.

I think you are absolutely right. The government spending has boosted the economy but only in certain areas. If you observe people around you, the restaurants, bars, shopping malls etc they look very empty to me in most places. I know its not a scientific analysis but coupled with the continued misery I hear from business owners I would suggest the economy is not in good shape at all.

 

Nothing will improve until the apolitical situation is fixed and there is a real recognition of the situation.

 

Meanwhile the neighbouring economies keep on growing at rates of over double Thailand... and probably more....

It is well known that by using only selected statistics, you can prove almost anything. The main ability of this Government has been its ability to manipulate the figures in such a way as to spread a mirage of optimism and happiness throughout the country, so in that respect, if anyone falls for it, we can conclude that it has been successful.  There, just like all the Government announcements,  I have managed to end on a positive note.  Sort of!