No renegotiation on Brexit deal if parliament rejects it - minister

[Khun Han]

8 hours ago, SheungWan said:

 

Recommended if one is a bit light on the research front then throw in a word like 'huge' and wing it from there.

 

Again, you're trying to be witty for the sake of it and failing spectacularly (though I expect Grouse thinks you're great. But, then again, spelling errors set him off on the giggles).

[dick dasterdly]

On 2/10/2017 at 3:36 PM, Gary A said:

What kind of deal is this?

 

Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier set to demand UK pays £48bn EU divorce bill

I'm assuming that a UK negotiator wouldn't "demand" (before negotiations have started...) that the UK pay a 48bn sterling divorce bill.

 

If its true - we're all in a lot of trouble!

[dick dasterdly]

8 hours ago, chiang mai said:

I've not paid much attention at all to Brexit in recent times so I honestly don't know what the state of play is. But I do read reports frequently that point to the country's financial future not looking that great, the cost of borrowings (deficit/debt) and banks planning to move out seem to be the biggees.

 

So I was just wondering if everyone was still feeling comfortable that the right decision has been made and whether it is all worth it given the negative economic backdrop? Clearly many months ago certain people thought so, I wonder now if any have changed or tempered their views?

 

BTW what happened to that Brexit stalwart Sgt. Rock, I miss his Deutche Bank rants, I see their stock is doing stellar things these days, does that mean they're not going away!

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/10/deutsche-bank-strategist-becomes-biggest-bull-on-wall-street.html

A pointless question as the view of 'expats' is irrelevant to anyone other than us 'expats' - but from what I can make out, views are largely unchanged on this forum.

 

More interesting is the way 'bregret' was broadcast loudly in the media after the referendum - but they seem to have given up on this?

[dick dasterdly]

19 hours ago, SheungWan said:

There are a number of guys in Thailand who are on the run from failure to pay divorce maintenance and they would be just the sort of guy to push the no deal/no payments formula.

 

18 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

So you're equating an attempt by the EU to rip off the UK for a huge amount of money in return for letting us out of their clutches, with people avoiding paying divorce maintenance. I guess some people will say/write anything to come across as witty.

 

8 hours ago, SheungWan said:

 

Recommended if one is a bit light on the research front then throw in a word like 'huge' and wing it from there.

Let's remember the conversation you started by equating those who try to run away from "divorce maintenance" - by which I assume you mean child maintenance - with 'divorce payments' from the EU...

 

They're ENTIRELY different things.  Those who run away from paying for their children and the ex-wives who spent their lives raising them - are deplorable.

 

The EU is not a child, even though it behaves as such at times.

[chiang mai]

18 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

A pointless question as the view of 'expats' is irrelevant to anyone other than us 'expats' - but from what I can make out, views are largely unchanged on this forum.

 

More interesting is the way 'bregret' was broadcast loudly in the media after the referendum - but they seem to have given up on this?

Who gives you the right to determine that my question is pointless!

 

As an expat I'm interested in knowing what the other expat views are!!!

 

And judging from the lack of response I gather nobody wants to talk about it, not surprising really given the potentially dire state of financial accounting that's looming! The last thing I remember on this subject was some people saying it would be OK after about six months, everything would recover. Ha!

 

 

 

[Flustered]

A few facts about UK trade with the EU. And remember that the EU is not a country, just a political and economic block. Some countries within the EU will suffer badly if there is a hard Brexit as they depend on exporting to the UK and for UK citizens paying into their economy.

 

 

3.3 million EU citizens live in the UK and only 1.2 million UK citizens live in the EU.

 

 

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/Trade with the EU matters a lot, but less than it used to

 

 

 

 

Total exports.—£220 billion out of £510 billion-   About 44% of UK exports in goods and services went to other countries in the EU in 2015

. That share has been declining, because exports to other countries have been increasing at a faster rate.

 

 

 Over the next ten to 15 years, 90% of world demand will be generated outside Europe says the European Commission itself.

[jpinx]

12 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

Who gives you the right to determine that my question is pointless!

 

As an expat I'm interested in knowing what the other expat views are!!!

 

And judging from the lack of response I gather nobody wants to talk about it, not surprising really given the potentially dire state of financial accounting that's looming! The last thing I remember on this subject was some people saying it would be OK after about six months, everything would recover. Ha!

 

 

 

Start a poll and let all the remainers vote.  then subtract that number from the forum population and you will know how many are brexiters.  :)

[jpinx]

14 minutes ago, Flustered said:

A few facts about UK trade with the EU. And remember that the EU is not a country, just a political and economic block. Some countries within the EU will suffer badly if there is a hard Brexit as they depend on exporting to the UK and for UK citizens paying into their economy.

 

 

3.3 million EU citizens live in the UK and only 1.2 million UK citizens live in the EU.

 

 

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/Trade with the EU matters a lot, but less than it used to

 

 

 

 

Total exports.—£220 billion out of £510 billion-   About 44% of UK exports in goods and services went to other countries in the EU in 2015

. That share has been declining, because exports to other countries have been increasing at a faster rate.

 

 

 Over the next ten to 15 years, 90% of world demand will be generated outside Europe says the European Commission itself.

You'll need to provide three links to support each "fact" or the remainers will moan all next week

[dick dasterdly]

8 hours ago, chiang mai said:

I've not paid much attention at all to Brexit in recent times so I honestly don't know what the state of play is. But I do read reports frequently that point to the country's financial future not looking that great, the cost of borrowings (deficit/debt) and banks planning to move out seem to be the biggees.

 

So I was just wondering if everyone was still feeling comfortable that the right decision has been made and whether it is all worth it given the negative economic backdrop? Clearly many months ago certain people thought so, I wonder now if any have changed or tempered their views?

 

BTW what happened to that Brexit stalwart Sgt. Rock, I miss his Deutche Bank rants, I see their stock is doing stellar things these days, does that mean they're not going away!

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/10/deutsche-bank-strategist-becomes-biggest-bull-on-wall-street.html

 

28 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

A pointless question as the view of 'expats' is irrelevant to anyone other than us 'expats' - but from what I can make out, views are largely unchanged on this forum.

 

More interesting is the way 'bregret' was broadcast loudly in the media after the referendum - but they seem to have given up on this?

 

5 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

Who gives you the right to determine that my question is pointless!

 

As an expat I'm interested in knowing what the other expat views are!!!

 

And judging from the lack of response I gather nobody wants to talk about it, not surprising really given the potentially dire state of financial accounting that's looming! The last thing I remember on this subject was some people saying it would be OK after about six months, everything would recover. Ha!

 

 

 

You're right of course, and I apologise.

 

I've (mostly) followed these threads and as far as I can make out posters views are largely unchanged - except remainers are now moving their doomsday predictions to a later date...

 

Personally, I was unsure before the referendum (concerned that it would result in worse conditions for the poor/average employees if we left the EU), and I still feel the same way.

[SaintLouisBlues]

On 08/02/2017 at 1:48 PM, vogie said:

You said you do not trust the conservative government, so may I ask again, which government, other than the conservatives would you trust?

I don't trust any government. I tolerate them and look forward to booting them out at the next election if they do a poor job

[dick dasterdly]

Just now, SaintLouisBlues said:

I don't trust any government. I tolerate them and look forward to booting them out at the next election if they do a poor job

I'd change this to WHEN they do a poor job, and the opposition is coming out with policies that will make it even worse for the poor and average.

 

Which is why I stopped bothering to vote a few elections ago - they're all as bad as each other and only interested in their own wealth .

[chiang mai]

9 minutes ago, jpinx said:

Start a poll and let all the remainers vote.  then subtract that number from the forum population and you will know how many are brexiters.  :)

I don't give toss how many Brexiteers or Remainers there are, that wasn't my question!

 

A few months ago a bunch of you were beating your chests on TVF telling us how great it would all be and despite being told that things weren't good you told us it would all be OK in about six months. Today we see the Pound has gone down the pan, borrowings are hard to come by, inflation is creeping up, the banks are actively leaving and so on. I want to know if those people who were saying it would all be so great have tempered their views or not, not difficult!!!!

[Flustered]

The EU themselves have stated that the UK economy will grow more outside of the EU.

 

This will not be an amicable separation as the Liberal Elite are scared witless that others will see how well the UK are doing and will also jump form the Titanic.

 

The only thing they can do is to try and scare the UK and punish them. Wont work, never did and never will. Push the UK into a corner and it comes out fighting.

 

Germany (Frau Merkle) have a massive trade surplus against the UK. They will loose this and not be able to recover it from elsewhere as they are hamstrung by EU trade deals.

Spain rely on the UK for the export of fresh produce and the income from over 300,000 UK residents. Embargo us and Spain becomes a bankrupt country.

Poland has almost 1 million citizens living on the UK. If the EU do not agree a deal on them, Poland will have to pick up the cost of supporting them and finding them jobs.

 

i am afraid that the Liberal Elite in Brussels are in cloud cuckoo land as are the bremoaners.

 

As Tony Blair was so fond of saying "Let's wait and see".

[dick dasterdly]

5 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

I don't give toss how many Brexiteers or Remainers there are, that wasn't my question!

 

A few months ago a bunch of you were beating your chests on TVF telling us how great it would all be and despite being told that things weren't good you told us it would all be OK in about six months. Today we see the Pound has gone down the pan, borrowings are hard to come by, inflation is creeping up, the banks are actively leaving and so on. I want to know if those people who were saying it would all be so great have tempered their views or not, not difficult!!!!

On the other hand, all those predicting ("beating their chest) that the UK would immediately collapse were proven wrong, and have been busy moving their time-frame forward.

[Flustered]

16 minutes ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

 tolerate them and look forward to booting them out at the next election if they do a poor job

Hilarious. The best estimates are that Labour (if they ever return to Tory polices as under Blair) will not be able to get back into power until 2030 at the earliest.

 

One day, the SNP will realise that they are part of the UK government and not a second bite of the cherry for Scottish independence.

 

The Lib Dems....Great joke.

 

UKIP.  Maybe in another 20 years or so.

 

Greens. Yeh right, all 1 of them

 

You are stuck with the Tories for at least another two terms so get used to it.

[chiang mai]

5 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

On the other hand, all those predicting ("beating their chest) that the UK would immediately collapse were proven wrong, and have been busy moving their time-frame forward.

I don't believe that's at all true, I think most sensible objective viewers knew the fall would not come in one go.

 

Regardless, my question still stands to anyone willing to answer it, not many I would guess.

[Flustered]

19 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

I don't give toss how many Brexiteers or Remainers there are, that wasn't my question!

 

A few months ago a bunch of you were beating your chests on TVF telling us how great it would all be and despite being told that things weren't good you told us it would all be OK in about six months. Today we see the Pound has gone down the pan, borrowings are hard to come by, inflation is creeping up, the banks are actively leaving and so on. I want to know if those people who were saying it would all be so great have tempered their views or not, not difficult!!!!

Which parallel universe is this happening in?

 

The pound fluctuates as it is a stand alone currency. Best estimates from all of the major institutions are that it will retuen to mid 1.20s against the Euro in the next few years.

 

Inflation, what inflation? Inflation under the Tories has been the lowest for decades. Not like Clunking Gordon when the BoE could not meet his inflation targets.

 

Which banks are actively leaving? A few have said they will move a few wokers to Europe. That is just hedging their bets. last time I looked (yesterday), all of the banks were stil here and offering as much money as we could want. Credit card debt has soared...a sign of active borrowing.

 

So despite promises of WW3, triple bounce and Armageddon, life is looking very good from the UK point of view.

[chiang mai]

Just now, Flustered said:

Which parallel universe is this happening in?

 

The pound fluctuates as it is a stand alone currency. Best estimates from all of the major institutions are that it will retuen to mid 1.20s against the Euro in the next few years.

 

Inflation, what inflation? Inflation under the Tories has been the lowest for decades. Not like Clunking Gordon when the boE could not meet his inflation targets.

 

Which banks are actively leaving? A few have said they will move a few wokers to Europe. That is just hedging their bets. last time I looked (yesterday), all of the banks were stil here and offering as much money as we could want. Credit card debt has soared...a sign of active borrowing.

 

So despite promises of WW3, triple bounce and Armageddon, life is looking very good from the UK point of view.

Oh please!

 

The Pound has lost 15% of it's value against USD since the Referendum and there's more on the way, I'm not interested in what you or anyone else thinks could happen in a few years, nor for your definition of "a few", I just want my question answered!

 

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1Y

 

As for the banks, try reading the news:

 

http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/18/news/economy/brexit-banks-financial-services/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38663537

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-banks-london-paris-move-uk-france-exodus-french-regulator-a7462731.html

 

[dick dasterdly]

5 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

I don't believe that's at all true, I think most sensible objective viewers knew the fall would not come in one go.

 

Regardless, my question still stands to anyone willing to answer it, not many I would guess.

Feel free to believe that those supporting brexit have changed their minds  - in the same way that most of the British press came out with numerous articles stating that those voting that way now regretted it.

 

For some reason they've now given up on this approach - likely because its not true and those who voted 'leave' weren't buying their propaganda in the same way they didn't 'buy' the immediate collapse in the unlikely event of a brexit vote?

[dick dasterdly]

2 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

Oh please!

 

The Pound has lost 15% of it's value against USD since the Referendum and there's more on the way, I'm not interested in what you or anyone else thinks could happen in a few years, nor for your definition of "a few", I just want my question answered!

 

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1Y

 

As for the banks, try reading the news:

 

http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/18/news/economy/brexit-banks-financial-services/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38663537

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-banks-london-paris-move-uk-france-exodus-french-regulator-a7462731.html

 

Thank god!  Everyone else on these forum threads keeps quoting a 20% drop - but I also thought it to be a 15% drop (albeit against bht, not dollars), and couldn't be bothered to research it enough to prove the point.

[chiang mai]

Just now, dick dasterdly said:

Feel free to believe that those supporting brexit have changed their minds  - in the same way that most of the British press came out with numerous articles stating that those voting that way now regretted it.

 

For some reason they've now given up on this approach - likely because its not true and those who voted 'leave' weren't buying their propaganda in the same way they didn't 'buy' the immediate collapse in the unlikely event of a brexit vote?

Why would I believe those supporting Brexit have changed their minds, I asked the question of them and they haven't answered hence I don't know yet, or did I miss some posts where they said they haven't, or are you clairvoyant!

[chiang mai]

2 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Thank god!  Everyone else on these forum threads keeps quoting a 20% drop - but I also thought it to be a 15% drop, and couldn't be bothered to research it enough to prove the point.

There was in fact one point when the gap was within a whisker of 20%, but that represented the two extreme trading points and it's a not reasonable to use them as a norm.

[ajarngreg]

On 2/8/2017 at 10:40 AM, Gary A said:

I'm not a UK citizen but looking at it from the EU side, The UK needs to be punished to prevent other countries from jumping off the sinking EU ship. Those who think that the UK can negotiate a better exit deal are simply not thinking logically.

 

 

 + 1. They need to feel what their decision really means. What about a Gerxit, a Frenxit, and others?

 

           

[Flustered]

Confidence has never been higher in the UK.

 

Firms like Nissan and Google are pumping in billions of £s, Siemens are investing heavily, trade figures are up.

 

The only reason the pound fell against the Euro is Bremoaners running down the economy. Chief Bremoaner (and he's not even British)  Mark Carney has done more damage to the exchange rate with his negativity and forecasts (that have all turned out to be wrong.)

 

I agree with others that Bremoaners would rather see the country go down the tubes so that they can say "told you so" but to their great dismay it isn't happening.

 

The UK economy is in great shape and will get even better once we rid ourselves of the un-elected Brussels Elite and their control over our future. They only see the UK as a cash machine for their failed projects.

[chiang mai]

5 minutes ago, Flustered said:

Confidence has never been higher in the UK.

 

Firms like Nissan and Google are pumping in billions of £s, Siemens are investing heavily, trade figures are up.

 

The only reason the pound fell against the Euro is Bremoaners running down the economy. Chief Bremoaner (and he's not even British)  Mark Carney has done more damage to the exchange rate with his negativity and forecasts (that have all turned out to be wrong.)

 

I agree with others that Bremoaners would rather see the country go down the tubes so that they can say "told you so" but to their great dismay it isn't happening.

 

The UK economy is in great shape and will get even better once we rid ourselves of the un-elected Brussels Elite and their control over our future. They only see the UK as a cash machine for their failed projects.

"Confidence has never been higher in the UK"

 

Really?

"Key findings this quarter

• Business confidence remains subdued and in negative territory at -8.7, compared to - 9.8 in Q4 2016".

http://www.icaew.com/en/technical/economy/business-confidence-monitor/latest-business-confidence-monitor

 

 

[Flustered]

Really!!!!

 

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/746950/British-business-confidence-UK-Brexit-referendum

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37988095

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/27/nissan-to-make-new-qashqai-and-x-trail-models-in-britain

 

Yup, life is looking good.

 

Bremoaners in denial.

 

Why do you so want the UK to fail? Start being positive instead of negative. We are getting out of a union that costs us over £70 Billion a year in trade deficit because we are hamstrung by EU laws in how we trade with growing nations.

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, Flustered said:

Hilarious. The best estimates are that Labour (if they ever return to Tory polices as under Blair) will not be able to get back into power until 2030 at the earliest.

 

One day, the SNP will realise that they are part of the UK government and not a second bite of the cherry for Scottish independence.

 

The Lib Dems....Great joke.

 

UKIP.  Maybe in another 20 years or so.

 

Greens. Yeh right, all 1 of them

 

You are stuck with the Tories for at least another two terms so get used to it.

Why are the Lib Dems a great joke? They were the ones keeping the slavering Con Party on a leash! The sad thing is that most of those who wanted change or going to get exactly that; just not the change they had in mind!

 

Does it not give you pause that the many Tories who (like Thatcher) were pro EU, are now almost overnight rabidly pro leave? Has it not dawned on you that they are going to stuff the numpties?

 

Net disposable purchasing power will drop like a stone, trapped by weak Sterling, rising inflation and flat wages. No more cheap sun holidays on the Med.....

[chiang mai]

2 minutes ago, Flustered said:

Really!!!!

 

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/746950/British-business-confidence-UK-Brexit-referendum

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37988095

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/27/nissan-to-make-new-qashqai-and-x-trail-models-in-britain

 

Yup, life is looking good.

 

Bremoaners in denial.

 

Why do you so want the UK to fail? Start being positive instead of negative. We are getting out of a union that costs us over £70 Billion a year in trade deficit because we are hamstrung by EU laws in how we trade with growing nations.

So you post newspaper articles that are months old and take those as being more accurate than icaew business confidence report, really!

 

I have no interest in promoting or running anyone or anything down, it would however be good if people like you could deal objectively in fact rather than the wet dreams you've posted thus far. Business confidence has never been better, no, actually it's at -8, oh OK well here's some old newspaper articles - pathetic.

 

[Flustered]

Just now, Grouse said:

 

1 minute ago, Grouse said:

Why are the Lib Dems a great joke? They were the ones keeping the slavering Con Party on a leash! The sad thing is that most of those who wanted change or going to get exactly that; just not the change they had in mind!

 

Does it not give you pause that the many Tories who (like Thatcher) were pro EU, are now almost overnight rabidly pro leave? Has it not dawned on you that they are going to stuff the numpties?

 

Net disposable purchasing power will drop like a stone, trapped by weak Sterling, rising inflation and flat wages. No more cheap sun holidays on the Med.....

Why are the LibDems a joke? You have to ask that?

 

The old Common Market and EEC was a great idea, free trade etc. The EU is a Socialist dream and disaster. Only countries like Germany with it's strong industry and patriotism (something Brits are called racist for) and poor Eastern European States who get massive hand outs benefit from the EU.

 

Germany engineered the debt crisis in Greece and now calls all of the tunes regarding how Central Bank money is dished out.

 

We are so well out of this that it is a blessing.

 

Why do you keep on wishing the downfall of the UK?

[Khun Han]

6 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Why are the Lib Dems a great joke? They were the ones keeping the slavering Con Party on a leash! The sad thing is that most of those who wanted change or going to get exactly that; just not the change they had in mind!

 

Does it not give you pause that the many Tories who (like Thatcher) were pro EU, are now almost overnight rabidly pro leave? Has it not dawned on you that they are going to stuff the numpties?

 

Net disposable purchasing power will drop like a stone, trapped by weak Sterling, rising inflation and flat wages. No more cheap sun holidays on the Med.....

 

And on and on they go with their daft predictions, which keep on being moved further into the future due to some unexpected delay-or-other.