Early assessment suggests US strikes didn’t destroy Iran’s nuclear sites

[BLMFem]

Well, well, well, what have we here. So the sites weren't obliterated anyway? Wonder who'll take the fall for this.

 

 

Early assessment suggests US strikes didn’t destroy Iran’s nuclear sites

 

"The US military strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities last weekend did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely only set it back by months, according to an early US intelligence assessment that was described by seven people briefed on it.

The assessment, which has not been previously reported, was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s intelligence arm. It is based on a battle damage assessment conducted by US Central Command in the aftermath of the US strikes, one of the sources said."

 

 

[Purdey]

Looks like the Fat Man sang too soon. Obi Wan says: "The need to boast is strong in this one."

Mind you, Bush was no better with his Mission Accomplished announcement.

[Jingthing]

Trump will just continue to lie that it was an enormous success.

[Purdey]

31 minutes ago, BLMFem said:

Wonder who'll take the fall for this

It was Obama.

😁

[BLMFem]

If these assessments are correct it puts Trump (and by extension Netanyahu) in a very difficult situation. He's been adamant that all must respect the declared ceasefire, but if the Iranians can have the enrichment plants up and running in a fairly short time then what does he do? Bomb again? The first bombing was already very unpopular with most Americans.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/video/cnn-poll-us-strikes-iran-poll-americans-digvid

 

"According to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, President Donald Trump’s decision to launch airstrikes against Iran is broadly unpopular with Americans, with 56% to 44% disapproving of the strikes."

[BLMFem]

Here is another article about the bombing damage assessment. The next few days are going to be very interesting, indeed.

 

Trump Hit By Devastating Intel Leak of Iran Bombing ‘Flop’

 

"The assessment was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency within the Defense Department and is based on an assessment of battle damage by U.S. Central Command conducted after the strikes, one of the sources told CNN.

The assessment found that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was not destroyed, two of the people familiar said, and one of the sources said the centrifuges were largely intact.

The New York Times citing officials familiar with the assessment also reported that the preliminary findings found the bombings sealed off the entrances to two of the facilities but did not collapse their underground buildings."

[lou norman]

President Trump would do himself a great favor by simply taking the win. The raid was well executed. His attempts to gaslight the results before anyone has had a chance to analyze the data might resonate with his base, but to many of us who’ve learned to be skeptical of administrations, it comes across as amateurish. Think: Iraqi WMDs.

 

[BLMFem]

6 minutes ago, lou norman said:

President Trump would do himself a great favor by simply taking the win. The raid was well executed. His attempts to gaslight the results before anyone has had a chance to analyze the data might resonate with his base, but to many of us who’ve learned to be skeptical of administrations, it comes across as amateurish. Think: Iraqi WMDs.

 

Too late for that, really. Too much chest thumping and flag waving already done. If these estimates turn out to be broadly correct then Trump's between a rock and a hard place.

Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't

[MalcolmB]

51 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Trump will just continue to lie that it was an enormous success.

Trump was claiming they had set it back years, possibly forever.

Why do Americans big note so much?

[Jingthing]

10 minutes ago, lou norman said:

President Trump would do himself a great favor by simply taking the win. The raid was well executed. His attempts to gaslight the results before anyone has had a chance to analyze the data might resonate with his base, but to many of us who’ve learned to be skeptical of administrations, it comes across as amateurish. Think: Iraqi WMDs.

 

It's not a win if it actually accellerates Iran's nuclear goals. How? Increased chance of help from allies like North Korea. 

[Jingthing]

1 minute ago, MalcolmB said:

Trump was claiming they had set it back years, possibly forever.

Why do Americans big note so much?

He lies constantly  That's a given. 

[3NUMBAS]

The entrances can be mined to stop em from being used 

[BLMFem]

7 minutes ago, MalcolmB said:

Trump was claiming they had set it back years, possibly forever.

Why do Americans big note so much?

Have a look at the people he surrounds himself with. He made those claims as soon as the operation was over and who do you think will step up and contradict him? Tulsi Gabbard (on thin ice since you know what) or Pete Hegseth (in the doghouse since Signal)?

[MalcolmB]

1 minute ago, Jingthing said:

He lies constantly  That's a given. 

But the American people voted for him knowing that.

Twice.

What is wrong with you people?

[Jingthing]

Just now, MalcolmB said:

But the American people voted for him knowing that.

Twice.

What is wrong with you people?

Creeping fascism.

[BLMFem]

5 minutes ago, 3NUMBAS said:

The entrances can be mined to stop em from being used 

That will require military action, which will be the same as admitting he was talking out of his butt when stating the plants were totally destroyed. Hughe loss of face and not something Trump will tolerate. At the very least high profile heads will roll. 

This will, of course, vindicate dissenting MAGA voices like Carlson and Bannon. The trouble in paradise continues.

[carlyai]

39 minutes ago, BLMFem said:

Here is another article about the bombing damage assessment. The next few days are going to be very interesting, indeed.

 

Trump Hit By Devastating Intel Leak of Iran Bombing ‘Flop’

 

"The assessment was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency within the Defense Department and is based on an assessment of battle damage by U.S. Central Command conducted after the strikes, one of the sources told CNN.

The assessment found that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was not destroyed, two of the people familiar said, and one of the sources said the centrifuges were largely intact.

The New York Times citing officials familiar with the assessment also reported that the preliminary findings found the bombings sealed off the entrances to two of the facilities but did not collapse their underground buildings."

How can we believe anything?

Those bombs must have created huge underground collapses....but .....

[dinsdale]

1 hour ago, BLMFem said:

Well, well, well, what have we here. So the sites weren't obliterated anyway? Wonder who'll take the fall for this.

 

 

Early assessment suggests US strikes didn’t destroy Iran’s nuclear sites

 

"The US military strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities last weekend did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely only set it back by months, according to an early US intelligence assessment that was described by seven people briefed on it.

The assessment, which has not been previously reported, was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s intelligence arm. It is based on a battle damage assessment conducted by US Central Command in the aftermath of the US strikes, one of the sources said."

 

 

Trump made his feelings about CNN and their assessment quite clear and this leaked report has been refuted as incorrect. It's impossible to to tell until actual battle damage assessment is done on the ground IMO. My assessment is two bombs were dropped down the vents. Looking at the pic there are 6 penetrating holes and this is said be be into vents. 12 mops were dropped. Initial hit was 6 but how far they actually penetrated is speculative. After the initial 6 went in this was followed by another six one more each into each of the now penetrated sites. Amazing stuff. I can't think of any other scenario. 12 bombs six holes. That's 2 bombs per hole with the second one penetrating further down. The circled holes are the only hits I've heard talked about on the strike on Fordow.

[short-Timer]

All that bluster from Trump, but now the US is looking pretty impotent. Dropped 14 of those big old 30,000 lb bombs, but hardly did any damage. Russia and China are taking notice. Not a good look for America. 

[Wingate]

A major key that backs up that assessment is:

 

Radiation

 

US satellites can detect radiation, just as they do when the DPRK conducts an underground nuke test.

 

If the bunker buster bombs had actually penetrated the chamber, there would be a radiation signature. There is none.

 

The other possibility is that Iran suspected the strike would come and moved all their U-235 beforehand.

 

It certainly seems all the 60% enriched U-235 Iran had last week, they still have.

 

Mission NOT Accomplished.

[BLMFem]

1 hour ago, Purdey said:

It was Obama.

😁

 

Hillary, and, of course, The Laptop!

[Summerinsiam]

Even Vance is admitting that they do not know where the highly enriched uranium is. I am glad that they have reached a tentative ceasefire, but in light of this, the bombing has to be seen as a strategic failure that will likely spur nuclear proliferation in the region, and consequently the wider world.

[Trippy]

57 minutes ago, MalcolmB said:

But the American people voted for him knowing that.

Twice.

What is wrong with you people?

Did you listen to his opponent? 

[MalcolmB]

Just now, Trippy said:

Did you listen to his opponent? 

Yes, another big noting liar.

They are all the same.

[Wingate]

55 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Trump made his feelings about CNN and their assessment quite clear and this leaked report has been refuted as incorrect. It's impossible to to tell until actual battle damage assessment is done on the ground IMO. My assessment is two bombs were dropped down the vents. Looking at the pic there are 6 penetrating holes and this is said be be into vents. 12 mops were dropped. Initial hit was 6 but how far they actually penetrated is speculative. After the initial 6 went in this was followed by another six one more each into each of the now penetrated sites. Amazing stuff. I can't think of any other scenario. 12 bombs six holes. That's 2 bombs per hole with the second one penetrating further down. The circled holes are the only hits I've heard talked about on the strike on Fordow.

No radiation signature.

 

THAT is the key to intel assessments, suggesting it either failed or Iran had already moved its U-235.

[Cameroni]

What a shock. A large line of trucks carted away the enriched uranium and equipment two days before the raids.

 

So the setback, due to the loss of facilities is 3 to 6 months.

 

Much ado about nothing. Except now Iran will not be under any oversight by anyone as regards their nuclear programme.

 

Stilll, at least Israel once again dragged the world into war, a nice success for Israel.

 

Peace in our time, surely? Lol.

[Wingate]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

It's not a win if it actually accellerates Iran's nuclear goals. How? Increased chance of help from allies like North Korea. 

It isn't just nations like North Korea.

 

AQ Khan might be dead, but the world is full of other "mentors" like him, some available for a price, some because of philosophical leanings and ideologies.

 

There are plenty of Russian nuke experts trying to survive on meager pensions, who may be available.

 

The strike is likely to embolden the mullahs. They have a lot more data now about US capabilities, and also lots of data on the special cement Iranian material scientists have developed.

 

The strike was a measure the US could not afford to lose, but it appears they did. The gamble did not pay off, and will likely come back to haunt us. Iran may play coy for a while, pretending they support the truce, keeping their proxies away from any sort of retaliation, but all the while they will be moving faster toward their goal.

 

If the bunker was not actually penetrated, Iran is also going to be selling a lot of their special cement to China, Russia, Hamas tunnel makers, etc.

[bannork]

4 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

What a shock. A large line of trucks carted away the enriched uranium and equipment two days before the raids.

 

So the setback, due to the loss of facilities is 3 to 6 months.

 

Much ado about nothing. Except now Iran will not be under any oversight by anyone as regards their nuclear programme.

 

Stilll, at least Israel once again dragged the world into war, a nice success for Israel.

 

Peace in our time, surely? Lol.

Trump was played by Netanyahu, as he has been by Putin for years.

A fool, desperate for acclaim, he's so obvious!

I imagine Trump as the British PM, having to face questions from the Opposition leader and other MPs weekly in Prime Minister's Question Time. 

He wouldn't last two minutes with all the lies he tells.

The US system certainly seems to protect him.

[spidermike007]

Multiple assessments are stating that the almighty bunker bomb destroyed the entrance of the tunnel and didn't come anywhere near the vital equipment, many additional experts are saying that it's very likely that the enriched uranium was removed long in advance, after all why would they keep them in a facility that was being targeted? 

 

So is Trump may have started a Forever War, one which he promised he would not start during the campaign, for absolutely nothing in return. 

[Wingate]

Even if Iran's high speed centrifuges were destroyed (maybe, maybe not), they still needed better and faster centrifuges to get beyond the 60% enrichment their machines could reach. To make a bomb they need 93% enrichment. Russia, North Korea and China could supply those centrifuges.

 

They needed to upgrade regardless of the strike, so the strike probably didn't actually set them back at all. They did not have the capability to go from 60% to 93% anyway, which is why Gabbard made the statement about "3 years", which she subsequently pulled back.

 

The intel signature a competent intel community should look for is an extremely efficient power plant, because at the speed the centrifuges spin, even a minor fluctuation in the current causes them to wobble and self-destruct. I would assume Mossad is competent enough to monitor power construction and upgrades, but I don't think the US still retains that level of competence.