It's official - Thai real estate bubble pops.

[ExpatOilWorker]

24 minutes ago, Number 6 said:

So, what could potentially be the trigger to bring it all crashing down?

 

Chinese halt buying

 

USD (world) interest rates double

 

Can't possibly think anyone from EU, UK, US or Oz is buying with x rates being what they are.

 

In the end, many sellers simply must resigning themselves to living in their box for the remainder of their lonely, single lives. If the economy doesn't tank, and they lose their job, they can stay above water. Nothing changes.

 

The economy is weakening. I see it.

With even the Fed Chairman Yellen mystified with the consistent low inflation and sovereign states selling 100 years bonds at 2.1% , it is tough what big event could bring it all down. 

An Asian financial crises is way overdue, the last one was 20 years ago. I have a feeling that a slowdown in China could be the catalyst, but people have been saying that for the past 10 years.

[JohnLick]

Finance world is overheated ... there will be crisis, a massive one.

 

But nobody knows how long the ones in power will keep on holding it.

 

The longer they do, the harder the fall.

[funandsuninbangkok]

8 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

 

PACE stocks are not suspended, they are still trading at the SET.

Google Suspension mysteriously lifted on Pace but SET does not comment

 

 

[funandsuninbangkok]

Bust spreading. KL bad

 

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/27/property-market-expected-to-remain-flat-in-next-6-9-months/

 

[Senechal]

40 minutes ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

Bust spreading. KL bad

 

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/27/property-market-expected-to-remain-flat-in-next-6-9-months/

 

Heh... Which reminds me of the sequence of events leading up to the housing bust:

 

1) "Real estate always goes up"

2) "Growth may be slowing slightly, but the prospects are still excellent"

3) "We have arrived at a permanently high plateau" . (KL is here now)

4) "There has never been a nationwide housing bust, but there may be some softness in some areas"

5) "This is just a little 'retracement' over the near term before it trends back up"

6) HOLY SH*** RUN FOR THE HILLS

 

and 

 

7) "It's your moral obligation to pay off your mortgage even if you're under water!"

 

 

 

 

Edited September 23, 2017 by Senechal

[cheeryble]

I have been previously told by a friend who went there that the tall new block on the CM Superhwy near Central Festival was sold out.....nothing available for him.

I was surprised at so quick.

Yesterday I went past it, and sure enough quite a few of the blinds and balconies show signs of occupation.

Go figure.

Edited September 23, 2017 by cheeryble

[funandsuninbangkok]

20 minutes ago, cheeryble said:

I have been previously told by a friend who went there that the tall new block on the CM Superhwy near Central Festival was sold out.....nothing available for him.

I was surprised at so quick.

Yesterday I went past it, and sure enough quite a few of the blinds and balconies show signs of occupation.

Go figure.

CM small units are being bought by Chinese small investors.

 

They are mostly motivated to get thier money out of China.  

 

Investment return wise they will lose

[cheeryble]

1 minute ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

CM small units are being bought by Chinese small investors.

 

They are mostly motivated to get thier money out of China.  

 

Investment return wise they will lose

Maybe their priority is to simply get their money out......what returns are available for them elsewhere?..........and or/get their family out of the smog.

i have spoken to a very well informed educated Chinese lady and this is a real priority.

A bit of smog here for a month or two seems like small beer in comparison.

[ExpatOilWorker]

2 hours ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

Bust spreading. KL bad

 

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/27/property-market-expected-to-remain-flat-in-next-6-9-months/

 

KL just finished pouring the foundation for a couple of Megatalls (600+ m) buildings, and the city in general is in the mist of a building boom. 

Petronas Towers was completed in January 1997, the same year as the July tom-yam-gong Asian Financial crises. Maybe KL is a good canary in the coalmine.

There is also trouble in China:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-29/china-s-4th-biggest-builder-discloses-overdue-debt-in-first-half

[hugh mckee]

On 21/09/2017 at 12:53 PM, Number 6 said:

So, what could potentially be the trigger to bring it all crashing down?

 

Chinese halt buying

 

USD (world) interest rates double

 

Can't possibly think anyone from EU, UK, US or Oz is buying with x rates being what they are.

 

In the end, many sellers simply must resigning themselves to living in their box for the remainder of their lonely, single lives. If the economy doesn't tank, and they lose their job, they can stay above water. Nothing changes.

 

The economy is weakening. I see it.

if someone is planning to buy their "dream holiday home in the sun" is 10% or so fluctuaion in exchange rates going to stop them?

me personally (from UK) it didn't, it all depends on individual circumstances and the euro is not so weak and many rich Americans and Australians, if this is your dream you'll most probably still go for it regardless of exchange rates.

 

so many doom mongers on here, wishing for this crash so that others suffer, life is for living, me personally I'd rather have

a nice condo as opposed to having the money lying in a bank, none of us know what's ahead for us, sure buying a condo

is a gamble, sometimes you have to take a chance, waiting for a crash? 1year? 5 years? 25 years? no one knows

 

I think most of the people on here who criticse or mock condo buyers are not the type of people who'd buy a condo, either haven't got the cash or the balls or both and many of their comments/hopes are fuelled by jealousy

[ExpatOilWorker]

1 hour ago, hugh mckee said:

if someone is planning to buy their "dream holiday home in the sun" is 10% or so fluctuaion in exchange rates going to stop them?

me personally (from UK) it didn't, it all depends on individual circumstances and the euro is not so weak and many rich Americans and Australians, if this is your dream you'll most probably still go for it regardless of exchange rates.

 

so many doom mongers on here, wishing for this crash so that others suffer, life is for living, me personally I'd rather have

a nice condo as opposed to having the money lying in a bank, none of us know what's ahead for us, sure buying a condo

is a gamble, sometimes you have to take a chance, waiting for a crash? 1year? 5 years? 25 years? no one knows

 

I think most of the people on here who criticse or mock condo buyers are not the type of people who'd buy a condo, either haven't got the cash or the balls or both and many of their comments/hopes are fuelled by jealousy

Sure, both locals and foreigners are still buying properties in varies part of the country, the real-estate market has far from frozen over, but there is indications it is slowing down. People were also buying property the days before the American subprime mortgage crises started, but most lost their shirts.

The few active posters on this tread is merely observing that while developers have increased supply in recent years, the demand is starting to fall below the supply curve, maybe even way below and at some point something will have to give.

Rental yield are an early indication that asking prices are artificially high. Combine that with a lackluster growth in GDP 80% of GDP household debt, visa restrictions, etc and eventually natural market forces will take over and adjust sales prices.

This tread is not about wishing anything, but about understanding the market and spotting early trends.

Edited September 24, 2017 by ExpatOilWorker

[inThailand]

Hasn't the drop in the property and rental market been mirroring the tourist industry? And the near future at least doesn't look better.

[trogers]

2 hours ago, hugh mckee said:

if someone is planning to buy their "dream holiday home in the sun" is 10% or so fluctuaion in exchange rates going to stop them?

me personally (from UK) it didn't, it all depends on individual circumstances and the euro is not so weak and many rich Americans and Australians, if this is your dream you'll most probably still go for it regardless of exchange rates.

 

so many doom mongers on here, wishing for this crash so that others suffer, life is for living, me personally I'd rather have

a nice condo as opposed to having the money lying in a bank, none of us know what's ahead for us, sure buying a condo

is a gamble, sometimes you have to take a chance, waiting for a crash? 1year? 5 years? 25 years? no one knows

 

I think most of the people on here who criticse or mock condo buyers are not the type of people who'd buy a condo, either haven't got the cash or the balls or both and many of their comments/hopes are fuelled by jealousy

I haven't come across any instances in history where the rich coming into a popping bubble to try upholding the market. Whether it's stocks or real estate.

 

On the contrary, most of them hoard cash and buy their choice assets near the bottom of the cycle.

[funandsuninbangkok]

On 9/24/2017 at 5:43 PM, hugh mckee said:

if someone is planning to buy their "dream holiday home in the sun" is 10% or so fluctuaion in exchange rates going to stop them?

me personally (from UK) it didn't, it all depends on individual circumstances and the euro is not so weak and many rich Americans and Australians, if this is your dream you'll most probably still go for it regardless of exchange rates.

 

so many doom mongers on here, wishing for this crash so that others suffer, life is for living, me personally I'd rather have

a nice condo as opposed to having the money lying in a bank, none of us know what's ahead for us, sure buying a condo

is a gamble, sometimes you have to take a chance, waiting for a crash? 1year? 5 years? 25 years? no one knows

 

I think most of the people on here who criticse or mock condo buyers are not the type of people who'd buy a condo, either haven't got the cash or the balls or both and many of their comments/hopes are fuelled by jealousy

Look, you just showed up and tossed a huge wedge of your life savings on one of the worst possible investments a newbie could make. 

 

Live with it in quiet desperation like most.  Dont start saying we ain't got cash and / or man eggs. 

[hugh mckee]

14 hours ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

Look, you just showed up and tossed a huge wedge of your life savings on one of the worst possible investments a newbie could make. 

 

Live with it in quiet desperation like most.  Dont start saying we ain't got cash and / or man eggs. 

oh excuse me, I didn't realise you owned the forum? "quiet desperation like most" wow from your posts you are the guy who is desperate.

 

personally I spent less than 1/3 of my life's saving on a luxury condo as I don't want to rent and in my 50's don't want to be an old man or die with the cash in the bank, I'm not desperate, I'm relaxed, my last property purchase at home in uk was in 2007, it's worth 10k-15k less now in 2017 than it was when I bought it 10 years ago, I don't lose any sleep over this, sure it would be nicer if it had doubled in value but it hasn't and you just get on with your life, I did not buy my condo in my 50's as an investment, I bought it for pleasure, my pleasure and if it goes up in value I'd be happy but if it goes down I'll accept it just the same as I have when it has happened to me with property in the past, nothing anyone can do about this and I bought with this knowledge after reading this forum and others.

 

to use your words there is "desperation" for a crash from many of the posters on here and hope it never happens particularly to spite people like you, if there is a crash? I'll still have my holiday home and my UK home and enough in the bank to retire comfortably, would be pissed of about it but just get on with my life and won't stop me enjoying the UK winter months in my holiday home which I've been fortunate enough to be able to afford.

 

Thailand is a growing economy, I considered Florida, Tenerife and Cyprus for my holiday home, I choose Thailand and Pattaya for various reasons but one was I wanted an apartment right on the beach, in Pattaya I got one 50 yards from the beach for nowhere near what i'd have had to pay in the other countries, Pattaya is extremely cheap in comparison to other "popular" holiday home locations and is a growing and popular city in a growing and poular country, maybe your desperation for a crash will not happen and your dreams will not be fulfilled after all?....whatever happens I will enjoy my luxury holiday home by the beach regardless

Edited September 26, 2017 by hugh mckee

[funandsuninbangkok]

6 minutes ago, hugh mckee said:

oh excuse me, I didn't realise you owned the forum? "quiet desperation like most" wow from your posts you are the guy who is desperate.

 

personally I spent less than 1/3 of my life's saving on a luxury condo as I don't want to rent and in my 50's don't want to be an old man or die with the cash in the bank, I'm not desperate, I'm relaxed, my last property purchase at home in uk was in 2007, it's worth 10k-15k less now in 2017 than it was when I bought it 10 years ago, I don't lose any sleep over this, sure it would be nicer if it had doubled in value but it hasn't and you just get on with your life, I did not buy my condo in my 50's as an investment, I bought it for pleasure, my pleasure and if it goes up in value I'd be happy but if it goes down I'll accept it just as the same as i did when it has happened to me with property in the past, nothing anyone can do about this and I bought with this knowledge after reading this forum and others.

 

to use your words there is "desperation" for a crash from many of the posters on here and hope it never happens particularly to spite people like you, if there is a crash? I'll still have my holiday home and my UK home and enough in the bank to retire comfortably, would be pissed of about it but just get on with my life.

 

Thailand is a growing economy, I considered Florida, Tenerife and Cyprus for my holiday home, I choose Thailand and Pattaya for various reasons but one was I wanted an apartment right on the beach, in Pattaya I got one 50 yards from the beach for nowhere near what i'd have had to pay in the other countries, Pattaya is extremely cheap in comparison to other "popular" holiday home locations and is a growing and popular city in a growing and poular country, maybe your desperation for a crash will not happen and your dreams will not be fulfilled after all?....whatever happens I will enjoy my luxury holiday home by the beach regardless

Not desperate, big man eggs, lots of cash and investments, happily renting while making my money work for me in the equity markets.  Never claimed and not interested in owning this forum. 

Edited September 26, 2017 by funandsuninbangkok

[hugh mckee]

26 minutes ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

Not desperate, big man eggs, lots of cash and investments, happily renting while making my money work for me in the equity markets.  Never claimed and not interested in owning this forum. 

well some people like you are totally obsessed by money,  we are not all interested in investments and amassing as much money as humanly possible, I'm not and money is not the "be all and end all" as it obviously is with you, good luck with that but I personally am quite prepared to lose some money in my pursuit of a comfortable life and  knew this of course with my decision to buy my condo and live in my own home as opposed to renting and living in someone else's....each to their own.

 

as I said hope there's never a crash to spite greedy money obsessed people like you,  you can continue to dream that other people's misfortune can make you even more money, that level of greed is not my thing.

 

and the ironic thing about it is that there is every likeliehood that 5 years from now Pattaya and Thailand property will be even more expensive than it is today?....of course no one knows this but in the growing and strong developing economy of Thailand surely this has to be a strong possibility?

Edited September 26, 2017 by hugh mckee

[funandsuninbangkok]

18 minutes ago, hugh mckee said:

well some people like you are totally obsessed by money,  we are not all interested in investments and amassing as much money as humanly possible, I'm not and money is not the "be all and end all" as it obviously is with you, good luck with that but I personally am quite prepared to lose some money in my pursuit of a comfortable life and  knew this of course with my decision to buy my condo and live in my own home as opposed to renting and living in someone else's....each to their own.

 

as I said hope there's never a crash to spite greedy money obsessed people like you,  you can continue to dream that other people's misfortune can make you even more money, that level of greed is not my thing.

 

and the ironic thing about it is that there is every likeliehood that 5 years from now Pattaya and Thailand property will be even more expensive than it is today?....of course no one knows this but in the growing and strong developing economy of Thailand surely this has to be a strong possibility?

Just because I am not foolish enough to buy a condo in Pattaya, a place with infinite sleaze and thousands of empty condos, does not make me greedy.   

 

I think what you will find is that the developers in Thailand over promise and under deliver.  You will also have to contend with hoards of Chinese and Indian  day tourist in your building noisily boning lady boys.  

 

Enjoy

[hugh mckee]

2 minutes ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

Just because I am not foolish enough to buy a condo in Pattaya, a place with infinite sleaze and thousands of empty condos, does not make me greedy.   

 

I think what you will find is that the developers in Thailand over promise and under deliver.  You will also have to contend with hoards of Chinese and Indian  day tourist in your building noisily boning lady boys.  

 

Enjoy

no problem, you enjoy counting your money.

Edited September 26, 2017 by hugh mckee

[hugh mckee]

just went through this thread, "funandsuninbangkok", don't know why you've got "fun" in your username, I've never read

so many negative posts from one person, your fingers seem to be itching at your keyboard just waiting to put down

Thai real estate at every miniscule opportunity and you literally badmouth anything to support your argument/wishes

that Thai propery will collapse so as you can greedily take advantage and that others who unlike you who choose to buy will lose out and in some way justify your decision always to rent and never to buy.

 

you come across as a nasty, greedy, money obsessed know-it-all individual whose every waking thought seems to be about money, I personally would hate to live my life like that, maybe you should get out more and spend some of your money, you can't take it with you, instead it appears you sit around your pc all day, ever ready to respond to anyone who dares suggest that your dreams of a Thai property crash will not materialise.

 

I personally now would be gutted if there were such a crash, not just because I choose to buy my dream holiday home in the sun despite what I read on here, despite only getting 42 baht to the £ when I was getting 52 a year earlier, I bought because you only live once and not sitting around for years waiting for a crash, you started this thread with a report from dd property talking about a property crash, this report is now over 2 years old, funinthesuninbangkok you'll be posting similar posts 10 years from now if you're still here, you'll do it until you die, your money obsession will always dictate your life and you will die a very rich man, I hope there's no crash just so as you're wrong but even if you're eventually right, you'll quickly turn to badmouthing something else as you clearly thrive on negativity.

 

no more posts from me on this subject, as a buyer or a renter or just a 2 week holiday maker, I hope Thailand flourishes

and in years to come has an economy that eventually competes with Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, it's a country I've always enjoyed visiting, can't understand people like the OP who live here and then have so many negative things to say and wish and say so many bad things about the country they choose to live in, for funandsuninbangkok, it's totally to do with money and maybe he'd be better spending some of it on some therapy?.....have a read at some of your posts man! ..why don't you give up this money obsession and instead be true to your "name" and have some fun in the sun in Bangkok!

Edited September 26, 2017 by hugh mckee

[hugh mckee]

9 minutes ago, hugh mckee said:

 

Edited September 26, 2017 by hugh mckee

[cheeryble]

On 9/24/2017 at 8:03 PM, inThailand said:

Hasn't the drop in the property and rental market been mirroring the tourist industry? And the near future at least doesn't look better.

Haven’t I read just today that out of season tourism's booming?

Chimese everywhere for a start.

[inThailand]

4 hours ago, cheeryble said:

Haven’t I read just today that out of season tourism's booming?

Chimese everywhere for a start.

Chimese I don't know about. Chinese yes but they are not buying where they can't own. 

[anto]

6 hours ago, inThailand said:

Chimese I don't know about. Chinese yes but they are not buying where they can't own. 

They can own a Condo .

[inThailand]

12 minutes ago, anto said:

They can own a Condo .

Please show me one condo bought by a China man. They are not buying here! At least some Russians do.

[Destiny1990]

The Chimese are buying lots of seaweed  items in the 7/11's.

[anto]

1 hour ago, inThailand said:

Please show me one condo bought by a China man. They are not buying here! At least some Russians do.

There is Condos shooting up here in Chiang mai .Not sure who is buying .A Russian bought my Condo down in Jomtien 5 years ago ,before their currency export restrictions and Ruble devaluation .

[ExpatOilWorker]

14 hours ago, hugh mckee said:

just went through this thread, "funandsuninbangkok", don't know why you've got "fun" in your username, I've never read

so many negative posts from one person, your fingers seem to be itching at your keyboard just waiting to put down

Thai real estate at every miniscule opportunity and you literally badmouth anything to support your argument/wishes

that Thai propery will collapse so as you can greedily take advantage and that others who unlike you who choose to buy will lose out and in some way justify your decision always to rent and never to buy.

 

you come across as a nasty, greedy, money obsessed know-it-all individual whose every waking thought seems to be about money, I personally would hate to live my life like that, maybe you should get out more and spend some of your money, you can't take it with you, instead it appears you sit around your pc all day, ever ready to respond to anyone who dares suggest that your dreams of a Thai property crash will not materialise.

 

I personally now would be gutted if there were such a crash, not just because I choose to buy my dream holiday home in the sun despite what I read on here, despite only getting 42 baht to the £ when I was getting 52 a year earlier, I bought because you only live once and not sitting around for years waiting for a crash, you started this thread with a report from dd property talking about a property crash, this report is now over 2 years old, funinthesuninbangkok you'll be posting similar posts 10 years from now if you're still here, you'll do it until you die, your money obsession will always dictate your life and you will die a very rich man, I hope there's no crash just so as you're wrong but even if you're eventually right, you'll quickly turn to badmouthing something else as you clearly thrive on negativity.

 

no more posts from me on this subject, as a buyer or a renter or just a 2 week holiday maker, I hope Thailand flourishes

and in years to come has an economy that eventually competes with Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, it's a country I've always enjoyed visiting, can't understand people like the OP who live here and then have so many negative things to say and wish and say so many bad things about the country they choose to live in, for funandsuninbangkok, it's totally to do with money and maybe he'd be better spending some of it on some therapy?.....have a read at some of your posts man! ..why don't you give up this money obsession and instead be true to your "name" and have some fun in the sun in Bangkok!

 

You don't read much news, do you?

Thailand is slowly falling behind pretty much any country in the region.

 

Below is from the Post:

Despite revising its estimates for several Asean economies, Asian Development Bank (ADB) kept Thailand's economic growth forecast flat at 3.5% in 2017 because of a slowdown in public investment in the first half of the year.

ADB maintained its Thai forecast from its April projection. However, the bank raised its growth figures for Singapore from 2.2% to 2.7%, Malaysia from 4.4% to 5.5%, and the Philippines from 6.4% to 6.5%.

[JohnLick]

I'm just reading on bangkok post about TELA Thonglor

 

apparently 90% sold

- 63 to 210 million per unit

- 110 to 350 sq metre units

- 330k per sq m

 

 

Please explain me why, why would someone buy it? The building is nothing great... It doesn't even have a rooftop pool, almost even Lumpinis ghettos have it. The only pool is on 5th floor facing extremely busy road so full of fumes and noise. Ultimate luxury, yeah.

 

You basically pay this crazy cash just so someone else fits the unit with stuff you may not want/like. But actually the furnishing is likely not included in the price lol.

 

Why not buy older and fit EXACTLY the way you want. You could use freaking gold and Japanese female-like robots as servants and still probably save cash.

Edited September 27, 2017 by JohnLick

[hugh mckee]

6 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

 

You don't read much news, do you?

Thailand is slowly falling behind pretty much any country in the region.

 

Below is from the Post:

Despite revising its estimates for several Asean economies, Asian Development Bank (ADB) kept Thailand's economic growth forecast flat at 3.5% in 2017 because of a slowdown in public investment in the first half of the year.

ADB maintained its Thai forecast from its April projection. However, the bank raised its growth figures for Singapore from 2.2% to 2.7%, Malaysia from 4.4% to 5.5%, and the Philippines from 6.4% to 6.5%.

I read from people like you overly keen to put Thailand down, the 3rd most popular tourist destination in the world.

 

most countries would be happy to have 3.5% growth and not claiming to be some kind of economics professor, my quote

said I HOPED in the future Thailand can be like it's the more proseperous Asian neighbours, maybe expatoilworker you should read more?

 

I've read a good bit recently expatworker mainly because I read what funandsuninbangkok has been saying and was researching before I bought my pattaya condo in June this year, I came to the conclusion then and further reading confirms this, there is not going to be any major price correction for condos in Pattaya, if right this will disappoint some on here, Pattaya is a growing city with many major infrastructure improvements planned and even with European recessions has seen yearly double digit growth in tourism, these things will help safeguard property prices in the area against other negative factors and the likeliehood is that 5 years from now condos will be even more expensive than they are now, many negative factors have took place over the last few years, oversupply, collapse of currencies, yet as of now no crash, no correction, the prophets of doom on here have so far got it wrong but of course can always use "it's still to happen" argument, why don't people like funandsuninbangkok write honestly and admit he's got it wrong, he started this thread and his extremely negative predictions have not happened.

 

many local reports online about the property situation to be read online, from Bangkok Post and others, much reading expatworker, no crash, no major downward movement in prices, overall prices seem to be static to having decreased slightly but location being a major factor and in good locations things are still strong and prices still growing.

 

 

 

Edited September 27, 2017 by hugh mckee