Thai baht set to weaken

[Naam]

32 minutes ago, teddog said:

2 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

No I don't not see what you mean, nor do I understand why you are unable to answer the question!

 

Thailand is considered to be quite strong In economic terms, some of the reasons for this include:

 

Large available workforce;

Low external debt and low core inflation;

Minimal social welfare overheads;

Substantial foreign currency reserves;

Low tax burdens;

Multiple sources of income from exports and tourism.

 

 

 

...at the point of a gun. For Gawds sake the country is under military rule,what else would you expect?

the listed facts existed before the "gun". Thailand's economy is since years in a much better shape than the economies of most other countries and the Farangs who start and end the day with a prayer wishing that the economy and with it the currency fall into an abyss are wishful thinkers.

[teddog]

Just now, Naam said:

the listed facts existed before the "gun". Thailand's economy is since years in a much better shape than the economies of most other countries and the Farangs who start and end the day with a prayer wishing that the economy and with it the currency fall into an abyss are wishful thinkers.

With 3 submarines and a load of tanks to add to collection I'm sure the Thai baht is as safe as....

[Naam]

the ignore button is a brilliant invention

[Naam]

1 minute ago, teddog said:

With 3 submarines and a load of tanks to add to collection I'm sure the Thai baht is as safe as....

take a look!

 

[teddog]

Just now, Naam said:

take a look!

 

personally I would not believe a word that was spouted,especially from the likes of an indvidual that thinks the Thai language will become the de-facto language of the world

[Naam]

1 minute ago, teddog said:

personally I would not believe a word that was spouted,especially from the likes of an indvidual that thinks the Thai language will become the de-facto language of the world

this "individual" is not the publisher of forex reserves. the discussion is getting now ridiculous.

[janclaes47]

8 minutes ago, Naam said:

take a look!

 

What I can see from that chart is trhat UK foreign reserves have increased by some 40% since 2014, While Thailand that is much more dependant on foreign reserves, has had an increasde of some 5% in the same period.

 

But look what happened in the same period. Ever heard about digging a hole to fill another?

 

 

 

[anon4546543]

It looks like Thailand is doing very well. No wonder it can afford subs and tanks 

[simoh1490]

8 hours ago, janclaes47 said:

What I can see from that chart is trhat UK foreign reserves have increased by some 40% since 2014, While Thailand that is much more dependant on foreign reserves, has had an increasde of some 5% in the same period.

 

But look what happened in the same period. Ever heard about digging a hole to fill another?

 

 

 

You appear to not understand much about economics, comparing the growth rate of FX reserves of the UK and Thailand is utterly pointless. Of course the UK's FX reserves have grown faster than Thailand's, what else would you expect when the UK has effectively devalued their currency by 20% and opened the flood gates to foreign buyers of everything!

 

And your quote about Treasury Reserves being down 85% since the coup refers not to FX reserves but to the value of the Treasury Reserve Account (TRA), a fine piece of misreported news if ever there was one!  The TRA follows a cyclical pattern every year that is shown in the budget report, it fills up as tax receipts are received (four times per year) and it is emptied as disbursements are made in line with the annual budget. The news report tried to compare the peak value of the TRA at one point in time with the lowest value at another point, the reality being that the levels and patterns of expenditure from the TRA were entirely normal. Having said all that, the governement did decide, well in advance, to reduce the base level of the TRA by 85% because it represented costly uninvested funds. The story on this is here:

 

As for THB vs USD values of exports: You seem passionate to prove that Thai exports are down in every way during recent years, regardless of which currency is used to measure them. Since exports are typically measured and denominated in USD it becomes difficult to measure their true value in THB because of daily exchange rate fluctuations, that having been said you haven't proved that the THB value of exports has fallen and you saying it has doesn't make it so hence you'll need to prove the point before it gets accepted as fact! It's worth also remembering that only 65% of Thai exports are settled in USD currently, the remainder are settled in other currencies, including THB, some of which result from regional currency swaps, particularly RMB and you'll need to factor those values in also.

 

Finally, as mentioned elsewhere, your arguments seem less focussed on economics and are more semantics and personal in nature and that's not helpful to a wider audience that is interested in economics - heads up, nobody's really that interested in your personal vendetta's so why not drop it and move on!!!

Edited April 9, 2017 by simoh1490

[simoh1490]

8 hours ago, teddog said:

With 3 submarines and a load of tanks to add to collection I'm sure the Thai baht is as safe as....

Thailand's military spending is 2% of budget and only 1.5% of GDP, lower than most other countries in the region.

FWIW military governments, civil unrest, coups, changes in leadership and other such things historically have had almost zero impact on the value of THB over the short term and absolutely zero over the longer term. The strength of THB is determined by capital inflows (SET and bond market) exports that are paid for in USD (and later sold for THB), tourism receipts (also involving the purchase of THB) and not by which flavour of governement is in power currently.

[teddog]

3 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

 

Finally, as mentioned elsewhere, your arguments seem less focussed on economics and are more semantics and personal in nature and that's not helpful to a wider audience that is interested in economics - heads up, nobody's really that interested in your personal vendetta's so why not drop it and move on!!!

  Move onto what exactly?  Figures straight from the juntas mouthpiece,can build anything into anything,charts figures,all likely to be believed just as the justice system.  Contrast Thailand to a country bursting with energy,just a little over 2 hours away,totally opposite

  Said before Im untouchable as far as B to £ are concerned,but am concerned as friends,neighbours colleagues up stakes,another (next door actually) looks as yet another once 8 to 10 mil house about to be abandoned, the B can go all the way to heaven,and hope it does,all it does is strangle itself.

  No freedom of expression,or freedom of speech,zombie like,backward country rapidly going into reverse, the one thing in their lives about to burst onto the yearly  scene,must admit though I do like a leg over more than now and again and yes but for my 4 mutts I may think along diff lines(not the leg over)

 

  Like to know though why Trumps on Thailands case as a currency manipulator just what his intentions are?     and just as I posted more good (or bad news) another 1.3 of population unemployed,,,get them down to two hundred baht a day for work that will do the jobs market a power of good

Edited April 10, 2017 by teddog

[simoh1490]

4 hours ago, teddog said:

  Move onto what exactly?  Figures straight from the juntas mouthpiece,can build anything into anything,charts figures,all likely to be believed just as the justice system.  Contrast Thailand to a country bursting with energy,just a little over 2 hours away,totally opposite

  Said before Im untouchable as far as B to £ are concerned,but am concerned as friends,neighbours colleagues up stakes,another (next door actually) looks as yet another once 8 to 10 mil house about to be abandoned, the B can go all the way to heaven,and hope it does,all it does is strangle itself.

  No freedom of expression,or freedom of speech,zombie like,backward country rapidly going into reverse, the one thing in their lives about to burst onto the yearly  scene,must admit though I do like a leg over more than now and again and yes but for my 4 mutts I may think along diff lines(not the leg over)

 

  Like to know though why Trumps on Thailands case as a currency manipulator just what his intentions are?     and just as I posted more good (or bad news) another 1.3 of population unemployed,,,get them down to two hundred baht a day for work that will do the jobs market a power of good

Three things:

 

Firstly, figures discussed in this thread thus far are BOT numbers, not really much to do with the junta.

 

Second, the unemployment rate is 1.3%, NOT "another 1.3%".

 

 Thirdly re. Trump and currency manipulation: https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-06/bank-of-thailand-head-denies-baht-manipulation-in-trump-rebuttal

 

 

[overherebc]

Re £ to baht I reckon we Brits are just hanging on waiting and hoping the £ will 'bounce' back when Brexit is completed. I don't see the baht crashing very soon.

[teddog]

11 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Three things:

 

Firstly, figures discussed in this thread thus far are BOT numbers, not really much to do with the junta.

 

Second, the unemployment rate is 1.3%, NOT "another 1.3%".

 

 Thirdly re. Trump and currency manipulation: https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-06/bank-of-thailand-head-denies-baht-manipulation-in-trump-rebuttal

 

 

"close to half a million people were unemployed last month, up 99,000 or 1.3% in the same period last year, which is spurring the government to offer skills training for jobless workers. A total of 496,000..."

 

   BOT = Junta.

     That 1.3 or however you like to describe it will be magnified many times over,before its over, thats for sure

 

[simoh1490]

44 minutes ago, teddog said:

"close to half a million people were unemployed last month, up 99,000 or 1.3% in the same period last year, which is spurring the government to offer skills training for jobless workers. A total of 496,000..."

 

   BOT = Junta.

     That 1.3 or however you like to describe it will be magnified many times over,before its over, thats for sure

 

To be crystal on this point, the unemployment rate is 1/3%.

 

The forecast is for 1.50% by 2020. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/unemployment-rate/forecast

 

And BOT does not equal junta,  historically BOT independence has been ensured by a higher authority.

 

But we get it, you don't like Thailand or anything Thai and prefer neighbouring countries. Your choice of course, don't let the door ..........!

Edited April 10, 2017 by simoh1490

[stats9]

Well it hasn't happened yet and it's not lucking likely.

Sent from my Alba 10" using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[teddog]

2 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

To be crystal on this point, the unemployment rate is 1/3%.

 

The forecast is for 1.50% by 2020. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/unemployment-rate/forecast

 

And BOT does not equal junta,  historically BOT independence has been ensured by a higher authority.

 

But we get it, you don't like Thailand or anything Thai and prefer neighbouring countries. Your choice of course, don't let the door ..........!

"close to half a million people were unemployed last month, up 99,000 or 1.3% in the same period last year, which is spurring the government to offer skills training for jobless workers. A total of 496,000..."

   BP today

[simoh1490]

22 minutes ago, teddog said:

"close to half a million people were unemployed last month, up 99,000 or 1.3% in the same period last year, which is spurring the government to offer skills training for jobless workers. A total of 496,000..."

   BP today

You're clearly having a problem with simple English, the employment rate IS 1.3%, it's NOT UP by 1.3%, regardless of however it was reported!

[Naam]

[janclaes47]

5 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Thirdly re. Trump and currency manipulation: https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-06/bank-of-thailand-head-denies-baht-manipulation-in-trump-rebuttal

 

If a TVF member would air his suspicions of currency manipulation I wold take it with a large grain of salt, even all the signs are there for quite some time.

 

When the largest economy in the world, and which has actually little trade with Thailand, starts investigating the matter I tend to think that there is fire where there is smoke.

 

[simoh1490]

We're done, look elsewhere for your entertainment and education in economics.

[janclaes47]

54 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

We're done, look elsewhere for your entertainment and education in economics.

Oh, only you opinion is valued?

 

You must be Naam's dog

[teddog]

3 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

You're clearly having a problem with simple English, the employment rate IS 1.3%, it's NOT UP by 1.3%, regardless of however it was reported!

Sorry,  would rather rely on BP than you

[Elkski]

Not sure how you guys got personal over financial predictions?   You have ruined a good thread.  Bye.  

[janclaes47]

2 minutes ago, Elkski said:

Not sure how you guys got personal over financial predictions?   You have ruined a good thread.  Bye.  

Predictions are for fortune tellers, TVF is for facts, but some on this thread live in denial.

[Rc2702]

11 minutes ago, janclaes47 said:

Predictions are for fortune tellers, TVF is for facts, but some on this thread live in denial.

Sverige tell me when the <removed> baht will weaken please?

Edited April 10, 2017 by CharlieH
Language removed

[simoh1490]

It's anyone's guess what the exchange rate might be in a week or a years time, but you may find it helpful to read what some of the more professional views are of the future economy: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/forecast

 

Because Thailand is primarily an exporting country its economy (and the strength of THB) is dependent on the global economy, tourism also has the same dependency but to a much lesser degree. The above analysis sees exports and FDI being lower in the fourth quarter but also sees a sharp rise in inflation and food prices plus a weakening of THB and an increase in interest rates by the end of the year to 36 - interestingly it then forecasts a pickup on virtually all fronts in the following year but then critically shows THB being at 41 by 2020! Make of that what you will since so much of the equation depends on what happens in the US and to global trade and global unrest. The picture from a GBP perspective becomes even more murky since GBP strength will be determined by the outcome of Brexit.

[teddog]

58 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

It's anyone's guess what the exchange rate might be in a week or a years time, but you may find it helpful to read what some of the more professional views are of the future economy: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/forecast

 

Because Thailand is primarily an exporting country its economy (and the strength of THB) is dependent on the global economy, tourism also has the same dependency but to a much lesser degree. The above analysis sees exports and FDI being lower in the fourth quarter but also sees a sharp rise in inflation and food prices plus a weakening of THB and an increase in interest rates by the end of the year to 36 - interestingly it then forecasts a pickup on virtually all fronts in the following year but then critically shows THB being at 41 by 2020! Make of that what you will since so much of the equation depends on what happens in the US and to global trade and global unrest. The picture from a GBP perspective becomes even more murky since GBP strength will be determined by the outcome of Brexit.

In a country that does not know what its doing in the next half hour or so , Id say these are brave predictions

 But yes is exporting country,rice rubber,bolt together cars from Japan,but I would say rice the staple export and more precisely the first off, perfumed rice, has the opulent smell of a  load of horseshit,that 1.9% unemployment figure will be more like 91% this harvest

   Yes is good at churning out figures that have utterly no meaning exepting at going up one notch in the "happiness league" I would add to that YaBa use must be definately on higher usage than first thought,and in a country that I personally would not trust my own shadow in ,it all comes together like a dogs dinner ...anyway as stated earlier I like a leg over now and again,nothing finer than here,has tried exporting the stuff too,but no success

 

  As for all those predictions of yours,one word..Trump will skittle the lot, China is in for a bad time raising capital in US,that will stop dead

[Naam]

4 minutes ago, teddog said:

China is in for a bad time raising capital in US,that will stop dead

it can hardly get better than this keyboard soaked with coffee 

[teddog]

Just now, Naam said:

it can hardly get better than this keyboard soaked with coffee 

I would take care Naam,that 1.2 billion baht triple  bypassed heart c/w heart and lung whatever,might put a graph up at life expectency on that lot