Analysis - Chance of smooth Brexit fades after British election chaos

[melvinmelvin]

In UK media I see now and then that some advocate that the path forward should be leave the EU but stay in the EEA.

 

(I am not sure they would still want that if they knew the EEA treaty in detail. That treaty is one of the most complicated treaties ever written (if not the most complicated). Very few people fully grasp all the possible legal aspects of the EEA treaty.)

 

For UK to enter EEA in a clean/standard procedural way;

a) leave the EU

enter EFTA

c) enter EEA

 

note that step a) will make UK leave EEA

 

not at all sure that UK would be welcome in EFTA, several reasons for that; it would shift the power centre in EFTA,

the EFTA/EEA way of working is OK with few hitches today, those in this legal framework have long experience now,

and they are reasonably laidback countries, UK is not what I would call a laidback country

 

note that UK entering EEA as a EFTA party constitutes a treaty change that needs ratification by every single EU state.

ain't gonna happen over night

'

interesting times ahead

 

 

[bkkcanuck8]

1 hour ago, melvinmelvin said:

In UK media I see now and then that some advocate that the path forward should be leave the EU but stay in the EEA.

 

(I am not sure they would still want that if they knew the EEA treaty in detail. That treaty is one of the most complicated treaties ever written (if not the most complicated). Very few people fully grasp all the possible legal aspects of the EEA treaty.)

 

For UK to enter EEA in a clean/standard procedural way;

a) leave the EU

enter EFTA

c) enter EEA

 

note that step a) will make UK leave EEA

 

not at all sure that UK would be welcome in EFTA, several reasons for that; it would shift the power centre in EFTA,

the EFTA/EEA way of working is OK with few hitches today, those in this legal framework have long experience now,

and they are reasonably laidback countries, UK is not what I would call a laidback country

 

note that UK entering EEA as a EFTA party constitutes a treaty change that needs ratification by every single EU state.

ain't gonna happen over night

'

interesting times ahead

 

 

The movement to EEA requires unanimous agreement of all EEA members I believe.  (aka the Norway option pushed earlier). 

 

This does give them access to the common market -- which has free movement of peoples (and labour) as a requirement.  The people dreaming that they can take all the good parts of the agreement and walk away from core parts like free movement of labour - are dreaming in technicolour....  Either UK is as it is now, or EEA which is basically the same thing but without any voice - or it is out and some pillars of the economy will have to restructure and move/shrink (London / Financial Industry). Before May was pushing hard brexit which was out, now I don't think they could put through the votes in parliament and the government would likely fall if it tried to go in that direction.  On the bright note for the hard brexiters, if the cause the government to fall and succeed at going to the polls just before the finalization - the default of out in 2 years might give them what they wanted (even if UK will pay for that economically for years following).

 

Some members (current) would not like to be dwarfed by UK entering the going back to the EA and might extract further concessions.

Edited June 13, 2017 by bkkcanuck8