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Bombings in Bangkok & CMai - opinions


ajarnmark

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Not sure why people are saying we shouldn't speculate - isn't this a discussion board??? Thought thats why people come on here. If they want facts, they might consider watching the news or reading a paper (although its debatable you'll get "facts" there either), but for discussion and sharing of ideas and thoughts, isn't that what an online forum is for?

Dangerous to speculate? Dangerous for who???

I'm going with unsettling tactics by factions opposing the current interim government. There, pure speculation!

:o

I think there is a simple solution to all this. Since we are living in a country where people are not willing to die for their causes (thankfully) like in some other parts of the world, simply offer a 10M Baht reward to anyone who leads the authorities to the successful capture of the people who planted the bombs.

We also happen to be living in a society where corruption is rife and many will do just about anything for the baht. If 10mil was on the table, some poor nobody would get the needle for the pay-off. :D

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All this could be the work of a single person - some sick puppy - for any reason that makes sense in a demented mind.

It is easily plausible for some person to drive to all of these places in Bangkok earlier in the day, planting the devices with timers synchronized.

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I've been trying to find some answers on net. Nation and Bkk Post say the official versions, what Surayudh says. the rest of the wolrd is too busy with NY celebrations and perhaps their own issues, like fuss about Saddam....

wikipedia, usually quite fast, isn't even updated yet about these latest events.

I did Google (Bangkok bombing "who is behind") here is what I thought more or less comprehensive and relevent for this thread:

The Day After the Bangkok Bombs

Monday, January 01, 2007

this guy analyses all the available reports from all Thai and other whatever sources (TV, newspapers). he quotes speculations by some Thai academics on this matter :

According to Channel 3, there are 2 theories on who is behind the violence from different academics from southern Thailand.

One view is that it is more likely to be undercurrents because the nature of explosions was not very strong (i.e the number of deaths was not great). Two, because the southern terrorists are not acquainted with Bangkok and it would be difficult for them to stage the attacks.

Another view is that it is most likely the southern terrorists. First, the kind of explosive used with a timer, the shrapnel of 1 cm nail and timing of the events on the evening of 31 Decembers was to cause maximum damage. Says that it is unusual for political movements to use such violence (i.e normally just 1 or 2 small grenades to kill a specific person or go to after a target). Second, the coordinated nature of the bombs also suggests the southern terrorists. Suggested 2 groups of persons involved (one for Victory Monument, Saphan Kwai etc; second, for Klong Toei and other targets on Rama IV road) . Says this would match the modus operandi of the southern terrorists.

However, both groups said that no conclusions should be drawn on who was behind it and the authorities should not rule any group out.

there are few worth reading comments too, like this one:

ScandAsia's Gregers Moller has removed his analysis after his site was taken offline (censored?):

"The website was temporarily taken off the air, and I believe it was because the rationale offered. It is now deleted and the website is now again available."

What is the junta suppressing?

Anyone investigating a crime has to ask for the motives. What does the old power clique have to gain from killing innocent civilians? Nothing but self-destruct ion. It looks more like a nihilistic act of wanton terrorism, the hallmark of the southern "insurgents".

The criminal investigation should not take long as several bombs were defused and it should be possible to trace the materials used. Then again, the investigation is handled by the Thai police and the military...

I tend to agree with underlined sentence - that IF it is indeed "old power clique" (as government, particularly Surayudh, are so fast to blame them), then this is quite stupid, because once they are exposed, they'll loose whatever remains of their credibility.

Sonthi-2 (civilian, Thaksin's ex-buddy) was the first to openly name Thaksin as perpetrator. too fast I think.

another comment :

It's official: Surayud has exonerated the Southern insurgents and is laying the blame on the "old power clique." He didn't cite any evidence though.

Interesting to note that after meeting with ISOC the previous evening, Surayud admitted he had no idea who was behind the bombings

that is another strange thing. I mean - even government itself is SPECULATING, not giving any solid evidences. as ew members like ColPyat has mentioned this here already.

this is sort of Chronology of the events:

Bombs in Bangkok

Edited by aaaaaa
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Mmmmm.......

I think of 9-11 resulting on more control by the government.

(Nobody has been found guilty of that)

I think of the London bombings resulting in more control.

(Nobody has been found guilty of that)

Think of this.

Martial law is still not lifted by the current leaders despite heavy critisism from the press and some political groups/people.

Recently it was announced that a secret police force will be set up (again heavy critic).

What if the current people in charge want to make sure they keep in charge?

How could they do that?

Alex

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there is a VERY big chance that we'll never know that - who's behind it all.

as it has been for years already with al lthose bombings and killings in S. Thailand; as so far no any clear result was given about investigation of attempted bomb of Thaksin before the coup....

here is other articles discussing this point (although a bit old):

A Conspiracy of Silence: Who is Behind the Escalating Insurgency in Southern Thailand?

.... the fact that still very little is known about who is behind the insurgency. Statements range from the Prime Minister's assertions that they are merely "criminal gangs" to policy makers who assert that "separatists with possible links to foreign Muslim extremists" are to blame. Making things more confusing is the fact that no group has taken any responsibility for any of the attacks in 2004-2005, nor has any other organization publicly stated their goals or platform. The Patani United Liberation Organization (PULO), which was active in the 1970s and 1980s, but had disbanded by the 1990s, has taken a degree of responsibility through its web site postings warning foreigners to stay away, but few believe that PULO has revived.

Terror in Thailand: 'Ghosts' and jihadis

Apr 3, 2004

BANGKOK - Thais are fighting "ghosts" in the Muslim south. That's how some police and soldiers dub the elusive perpetrators of a remotely detonated bomb that recently broke up the revelry of Malaysian tourists in "girlie bars" in the Yala province ....The actions of these "ghosts" have thrown Thai officials into shock and sent injured Malaysian tourists hurrying back across the border. The Thai government is in crisis mode. A campaign of bombings, shootings, and arms thefts starting in January and initially called the work of "bandits" is now largely being blamed on "separatists" and is emerging as Thailand's most serious security threat since the communist insurgency in the early 1980s.

.... whoever these "ghosts" are and whatever their motives, Thailand looks set for a long haul.

indeed - since it is 2007 already, and the same thing goes on and on - "ghosts" keep throwing official into shock and turmoil....

Thai bombs expose dangerous new divide

By Shawn W Crispin

Jan 2, 2007

BANGKOK –Who is responsible for the coordinated bomb attacks that rocked Thailand's capital on New Year's Eve... ?

Speculation in the mainstream Thai and foreign media has variously pointed to either [1] Muslim militants who have waged a violent insurgency against the government in the country's southernmost regions, or [2] disenfranchised politicians and soldiers still loyal to former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted by the CNS in a bloodless military coup on September 19.

Yet a thorough and independent investigation into the bombings should also include a probe into the possibility that [3] renegade elements inside the CNS itself may have masterminded the crude attacks to discredit new Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont and provide Byzantine justification for a counter coup action that ousts Surayud's interim civilian administration and ushers in a period of total military control.

Nobody has claimed responsibility for the attacks... Significantly, the bombs were positioned in places and ways that aimed to minimize civilian injuries and casualties, and appeared to avoid venues were foreign casualties would compel foreign embassies to launch their own independent investigations into the attacks.

There is no evidence yet that the bombings were part of a planned counter coup action by Thaksin supporters in the military, many of whom were sidelined by the CNS soon after the September coup. Nor is it readily apparent how Thaksin's grass-roots camp, which insists that the ousted premier is still the country's rightful democratically elected leader, would stand to gain politically by attacking the general population they still profess to represent.

Apportioning blame, even obliquely, on Thaksin and his associates for the attacks would, however, potentially rejuvenate now flagging support for the CNS among sections of the Bangkok elite and middle class. That support has been tested by the CNS's sustained heavy-handed policies on the media and political groups, and was hit hard on December 19 by an unexpected capital controls policy that badly undermined foreign confidence in the government's management and led to the largest single-day drop ever on the Stock Exchange of Thailand.

Significantly, the bombings come against the backdrop of rising tensions between military officials attached to the CNS, led by coup leader General Sonthi Boonyaratklin, and the interim civilian-led administration it later appointed, led by Surayud, a former army commander and close advisor to His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

The New Year's Eve bombings will also provide strong new justification for the establishment of the CNS's 14,000-strong "Special Operations Force", a new secretive security force comprised of army and police officials aimed nominally at maintaining peace, law and order across the country, but which critics fear will be mobilized to ferret out and crush political dissent against military rule. Notably, the 556 million baht (US$15.3 million) earmarked last week by the cabinet for the controversial new security force came under strong media criticism just days before the bombings.

As investigations into the bombings commence and Thailand's interim government wobbles in the chaotic aftermath, it is quite possible that the smoke may never clear on exactly who was responsible for the unprecedented attacks. What is clear from the outset is that elements inside the Thai military itself had as much - if not more – political motivation than other potential actors for launching the crude and deadly attacks. And in the chaotic aftermath, the prospects for the CNS honoring its previous pledge to return the country to a democratic course later this year have grown considerably dimmer.

that's exactly what I think - that most probably it will NEVER be known.

since this thread allows speculations - let's start a poll, huh? :o

and here is the good news: the Man of the Year Mr. Sonthi is back in Bkk, just now gave an interview on TV. he confirmed same thing which I pointed out above - that it is NOT sure who did it. now, teh "good" news is that army started to pull back towards Bkk, and he said that "we have enough troops" to handle the situation.

another report shows that there were same signs left on each and every sight of bombing: "I R K" whatever that means....

Edited by aaaaaa
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Sonthi is back in Bkk, just now gave an interview on TV. he confirmed same thing which I pointed out above - that it is NOT sure who did it.

On the contrary, he said something very interesting... That allow us to better judge his intellectual capacities (or his ability to think that people are really stupid).

Ready ?

"The militants are in trouble, even in Yala. I don't think they would come here as they could get lost in Bangkok," Sonthi told reporters....

Or another translation : "If southerners came up here to Bangkok they would get lost and wouldn't have been able to escape," said Sonthi.

Not bad, huh ? :o !!!!

Indeed. He is the man of the year.

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I see 3 options:

1. an unknown group of fanatics, thinking that they are doing something political, while they actually only express their personal frustration and will only achieve the opposite of their goals.

2. a criminal organization with large funds in Baht, who want to make the Baht drop and are acting pure for the profit they can take from it, nothing political, just typical mafia kind of stuff.

3. the junta itself, remember what the King addressed as the biggest problem in the country, being the floods and who's responsible for that, not Thaksin, but the democrats and the army !! The junta has most to gain from this !!

the only option I really can't see is Thaksin supporters, they're too smart to do something this stupid, they have nothing to gain from it.

my guess ...

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Indeed. He is the man of the year.

yeah, right - I have no any doubt that he IS !

now, Nation has added up to the main trend of this thread's speculations, namely that NOTHING IS CERTAIN regarding who's behind these bombings:

Who set the bombs?

The mystery can only deepen

Tue, January 2, 2007 0:10 am

..........

Police General Ajiravid Subarnbhesaj said all eight bombs were placed in 3x5-inch boxes and detonated by digital alarm clock. The most interesting part was that traces of M4 high explosive booster were found in all of the bombs.

The fact that M4, officially a controlled item, was found to have been used lent weight to the theory that the bomb attacks may have been an inside job - either rogue military or a police clique looking to discredit the junta and the current administration.

For the time being, nothing has been totally ruled out. The "undercurrent" theory is quickly gaining momentum. And if this turns out to be the case, Bangkok could become a battle ground for power.

although the phrasing of second part of this article's title is more like Nation's than official government's opinion, I think it will be exactly as it says: that it will be kept in the shroud of mystery (IRK-alien style symbols hastily connected to so Afgani-trained group.....) and that with further and further investigations this mystery will only deepen and deepen.

so, most likely we'll have a lot of opinions and speculation versions here ! :o

yet I still wonder - will the "mystery" be dispelled and culprits, or rather criminals, exposed and punished? or "silence" approach will continue ?

Edited by aaaaaa
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Sonthi is back in Bkk, just now gave an interview on TV. he confirmed same thing which I pointed out above - that it is NOT sure who did it.

On the contrary, he said something very interesting... That allow us to better judge his intellectual capacities (or his ability to think that people are really stupid).

Ready ?

"The militants are in trouble, even in Yala. I don't think they would come here as they could get lost in Bangkok," Sonthi told reporters....

Or another translation : "If southerners came up here to Bangkok they would get lost and wouldn't have been able to escape," said Sonthi.

Not bad, huh ? :o !!!!

Indeed. He is the man of the year.

Lets wait and see what his astrologer tells him.

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Well, it was really sad to hear about all these bombings in Bangkok. Once a peaceful city is now something under terror and fear. When I first heard of the bombings, I was shocked and I wonder who did all these. So following came to my mind:

1. Some so-called Muslims who were angry due to execution of Saddam on the Eid day. However, this seems remote as none of such factions have ever been reported to be in operation here in Thailand. (Please correct me if I am wrong.)

2. Some so-called Muslims from the south to prove that they are not weak and they can still control and get what they want. However, this Muslim story does not click in my mind, unless I am in a mood of putting the blame on Muslims. (Only the time will tell.)

3. Some factions who are angry with the current government and want to take a revenge. However, this was beyond the reasonable thought that they should do it so early. We have just recently got the new government installed. However, some doubts could go to them.

4. Someone powerful to put the blame of any scapegoat. So far seems to be the most likely, as people started blaming a certain personality. Remember the car bombing plot, where everyone was of the view that it was preplanned, however, I was of the view that it cannot be and the time and new government proved that, it was not. So, I believe that this will also be proven that such bombing are done by someone angry or its just some stunt.

5. Some other powerful countries, who may try to do it everywhere in the world to show that this is the result of Saddam's execution. I just read the news that there was a bomb in the Madrid Airport parking area. Please check this news on google or other sources.

Well, I suspect number 4 and 5 more relevant as compare to any other alternative. I would also like to add that some posters said that its Muslims, which is a kind of fashion nowadays that put all the blames on Muslims. I am not in favor of such Muslims who do these things, however, so far no strong evidence was found for their involvement. Maybe I will be proven wrong and the so-called Muslims maybe involved behind all these.

Another strange thing is that almost all the blasts occurred near farang hangout areas. Which maybe an attempt to chase them away from Thailand. Thai Baht is getting very strong, so one way to control it to chase the tourists away so the Baht demand will go down and everything would be fine.

Comments are welcome from everyone including trolls. :o

Why is this thread 's title "bomings in Bangkok AND CHIANG MAI". What evidence is there of a bomb in Chiang Mai??

oops! According to another thread there has been a bomb in Chiang Mai. I have seen nothing in the press

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BREAKING NEWS (2-1-2007)

Grenade thrown at Chiang Mai mosque

Chiang Mai (BangkokPost.com)

A grenade apparently thrown by two teenagers on a motorcycle has wounded a man at a mosque in Chiang Mai.

Police said the injured man, a Burmese nation who is caretaker of the Chang Klan mosque, was hit by shrapnel from the grenade thrown by the two males on the motorcycle.

Chiang Mai is tense after the double wave of bombings in Bangkok, and cancelled all public New Year's Eve festivals in the nothern city.

The commander of Provincial Police Region 5 in Chiang Mai, Pol Gen Kittithat Ruenthip, inspected the mosque and vowed thatpolice will find the bombers and take legal actions against them.

The province governor has ordered security officials to closely monitor important places, and operate checkpoints 24 hours a day through the holidays, particularly at tourist sites.

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BREAKING NEWS (2-1-2007)

Grenade thrown at Chiang Mai mosque

Chiang Mai (BangkokPost.com)

A grenade apparently thrown by two teenagers on a motorcycle has wounded a man at a mosque in Chiang Mai.

Police said the injured man, a Burmese nation who is caretaker of the Chang Klan mosque, was hit by shrapnel from the grenade thrown by the two males on the motorcycle.

Chiang Mai is tense after the double wave of bombings in Bangkok, and cancelled all public New Year's Eve festivals in the nothern city.

The commander of Provincial Police Region 5 in Chiang Mai, Pol Gen Kittithat Ruenthip, inspected the mosque and vowed thatpolice will find the bombers and take legal actions against them.

The province governor has ordered security officials to closely monitor important places, and operate checkpoints 24 hours a day through the holidays, particularly at tourist sites.

About a day late, that news is well broken.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=99273

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if it wasnt southern muslim insurgents , then my guess would be it was the work of a rogue army or police faction loyal to the trt and seeking to discredit the junta. doubt if thaksin himself had any prior knowledge.

How about my hair brained theory.....It was all perpetrated by the current goverment to rally support behind them. Could this be the work of their recently created secret squads?

The govt. was very quick to point fingers....with no proof whatsoever. They have obviously been worried about "unrest"......they created special squads to quell it.

Is it crazy to think that some of these military squads are covert?....It's what military intelligence organizations do.

Just some food for thought......I hope its just some angry TRT members.....they would be caught immediately (a quick payoff and someone would sing) But the longer we dont see something absolutely definitive....the more sure we coud be that the new saviours are behind it all.

Edited by pumpuiman
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Mmmmm.......

I think of 9-11 resulting on more control by the government.

(Nobody has been found guilty of that)

I think of the London bombings resulting in more control.

(Nobody has been found guilty of that)

Think of this.

Martial law is still not lifted by the current leaders despite heavy critisism from the press and some political groups/people.

Recently it was announced that a secret police force will be set up (again heavy critic).

What if the current people in charge want to make sure they keep in charge?

How could they do that?

Alex

I think your on the right track Alex.

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Military may seize Thaksin's assets following bomb attacks

BANGKOK: -- The Council for National Security (CNS) of Thailand may order the seizure of assets of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to cut money supply for financing disturbance in the country after a series of bombs exploded in Bangkok, a security source was quoted by Thailand's news group The Nation as saying.

The source told The Nation that the CNS believed Thaksin was behind the series of bomb attacks in Bangkok Sunday evening.

At least six bombs rocked downtown Bangkok on Sunday evening, killing two persons and injuring about 40 others. The explosions took place as Bangkokians were celebrating the upcoming New Year.

However, the state-run Thai News Agency said that it was not immediately clear if the bombs had anything to do with the military coup of September 19 that ousted premier Thaksin, or with continuing insurgency violence in the Muslim-predominant southern border region which has claimed more than 1,900 people's lives since 2004.

Now we see why the CNS was behind the bombings. Corrupt murdering a@@holes.

Edited by pumpuiman
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for what its worth,

i asked around, the consensus was pretty firmly from parties associated with the ex.

don't know if they were acting under orders or off their own bat.

nasty development, condolences & sympthies to those affected

That is what most Thai people seem to think. Still we should await the outcome.

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Hi all,

I think it is beyond what we think looking at developements in SE Asia.

For example the US did not send in any major help after the Tsunami unless the Phuket air base was handed over to the US.

Significant oil and gas fields were discovered at Andaman sea and Myanmar.

Who is the biggest shareholder of Siam commercial bank?

Which banks were used in the Temasek deal?

What influence did the police got while Thaksin came on board and how did Thaksin infiltrated the army?

I think the current junta wants to get back in total power and have full control.

Alex

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You think I am crazy Ulysess?

Do some online research.

:o

Also some of the police heads do not like it at all that the army is gaining more and more control.

Edited by AlexLah
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for what its worth,

i asked around, the consensus was pretty firmly from parties associated with the ex.

don't know if they were acting under orders or off their own bat.

nasty development, condolences & sympthies to those affected

That is what most Thai people seem to think. Still we should await the outcome.

No surely not.Wait the outcome? Isn't it much better to fire off an opinion based on existing prejudices? It's Thaksin, his followers, the Muslims, the Junta, the police, Al-Quaeda, criminal gangs...whatever.The situation remains very unclear and Surayud's pronouncements have been vague to the point of being misleading.But the fact is I don't know who was responsible and the rest of the posters don't know either.

And by the way I'm sick and tired of farang telling us what Thai people think especially as in most cases they have no obvious qualifying knowledge.The general standard of comment on this forum has been lamentable since the bombings, and I can only assume the wiser heads have been on holiday.I'm not talking about a particular viewpoint.I would be interested to hear an intelligent explanation from a number of viewpoints.So far the discussion and the parallel discussion in News has been uninformative.

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I'm still waiting for one of the usual suspects to show up on this thread blaming either Americans or Zionists.

Yup, definitely the Hollywood Zionists behind this one.

:o

Cha Cha Jing Jing

I consider this thread to be a troll in the worst possible taste

Yes the looniies will find it irresistable

And the "experts" both in weaponry and Thai politics.

They do not need to be provoked or encouraged

:D

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the US did not send in any major help after the Tsunami unless the Phuket air base was handed over to the US.

Alex

Total B.S.

Both Bubba Bill Clinton and George Bush (the elder) were in Phuket with millions of $ of donations from your average 'Joe six-pak' right after the flood.

Take your own advice and do some research... :o

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nope, US are busy as well as much more interested elsewhere to be invovled in petty politics in such a country without oil as Thailand - they have nothing to do with these bombings. unless Thai kamikazes would have hijacked a couple of other airplanes and hit Capitole and White House of course... then full rage of Thomahawks will be unlished upon Thailand - they won't simply cowardly plant few little bombs here and there ! :D so, yanks are out of question.

zionists - unless they are planning something against that evil Malaysia, which still doesn't let their citizens in even as a tourists. but terror acts against Thailand itself? :o I seriously doubt it !

however Thaksin said he didn't do it either - his letter has been read by fellow TRT buddy. he said he is ready and willing to come back for a trial if there are real evidences against him.

another interesting thing he said: bombings and killngs continue to go on in S. Thailand, and somehow Army can't neither figure it out who are those "shadow warriors" they are chasing, nor stop the violence there (even though new Chief Commander now is their fellow muslim).

so, the point is: how come so easily and so fast authorities puzzled it all out who are behind these Bkk bombings?

I think I agree: too easy and too fast. may be even can say : too EAGERLY and enthusiastically.

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And by the way I'm sick and tired of farang telling us what Thai people think especially as in most cases they have no obvious qualifying knowledge.

The general standard of comment on this forum has been lamentable since the bombings, and I can only assume the wiser heads have been on holiday.I'm not talking about a particular viewpoint.I would be interested to hear an intelligent explanation from a number of viewpoints.So far the discussion and the parallel discussion in News has been uninformative.

Well you should speak clearly : which comments do you judge "lamentable" ?

You're writing like... thai officials.

Do you know why all the posts are, mostly, uninformatives ? It's because the whole story is "uninformative".

I've said it before : the ongoing investigation is a total joke. That matches perfectly the way people are thinking in Thailand : total chaos. Remember the episode monday of the "graffiti" on ITV, and commented by some officials... Monthy Python couldn't have done better.

And how can you qualify a guy like Sonthi who, just as he went back from the Hadj, said to "journalists" : "The militants are in trouble, even in Yala. I don't think they would come here as they could get lost in Bangkok," Sonthi told reporters....

Or another translation : "If southerners came up here to Bangkok they would get lost and wouldn't have been able to escape," said Sonthi.

Not a translation issue : 2 differents sources.

At that point, 2 solutions, and only 2 are possible :

-the man is totally stupid

-or the man thinks, or knows, that he's talking to a totally stupid people...

Wich solution do you prefer ? He's the boss of the Army... He's supposed to be a top gun... Leader of CNS.

So, you are sick of farangs who are talking too much. Personaly, I'm sick of thai people who can't think by themselves with an ounce of common sense, and meanwhile who permanently use the old trick of "you farang can not understand".

There is one thing that I understand very well in this country (and other) : plain stupidity and lack of common sense.

It's universal.

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