FAQs on the homestretch of Yingluck’s trial

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OPINION

FAQs on the homestretch of Yingluck’s trial

By Tulsathit Taptim 
The Nation

 

When you enter an amusement park, the loud noises emanating from its most thrilling ride will stir feelings of excitement.

 

But you only begin to get really get excited when you line up for the ride, knowing that the shrieks and screams will very soon be yours. When you climb onto the ride and they fasten your seatbelt, you start to hold your breath.

 

This week we are at the queue stage, inching ever closer to the ride. The anxious wait for the rice-scheme trial’s conclusion is nearly over. When former premier Yingluck Shinawatra gives her closing statement next Tuesday, the seatbelt will be locked and the machine ready to go.

 

The verdict is expected on August 25. It will be delayed, but not by much, in case she doesn’t show up. The day of the ruling and its immediate aftermath will be the time the ride is in full swing. So, to spice up your excitement, here are some answers to the questions of the hour:

 

Why has Yingluck requested the opportunity to make her own closing statement?

Her camp and analysts think it’s a win-win move. The verbal statement doesn’t take away her right to submit a final defence statement in writing. Unless she messes up big time (like openly attacking the integrity of the judges) a “genuinely emotional” verbal closing statement may earn local and international sympathy.

 

What will she say?

She will most likely sum up the defence’s main arguments – that the rice pledging scheme was an election promise to voters her government was supposed to keep, and that proper measures were taken to prevent it from going seriously wrong. She is expected to produce a very important, soul-searching question for the judges and the public: How much should a government leader be held responsible for a state project that goes off-track here and there, even with a number of corruption cases reported?

 

Will she show up for the verdict on August 25?

Unless she delivers a bombshell during Tuesday’s closing statement – like she was unfairly treated or the trial is a joke from which she could never expect a fair ruling – she will appear in court on August 25. In the unlikely event she doesn’t, the court may issue an arrest warrant. And if she still doesn’t show up on the rescheduled verdict day, the ruling can be read in her absence.

 

What are the chances she will hit-and-run – in other words, slam the court and then disappear?

Yingluck has claimed the trial is unfair and should be held in the Constitution Court rather than the Supreme Court for political officeholders. This is why many people think she could use her closing statement to dramatise her plight and thus “justify” her escape. However, there are many ways such a tactic could backfire. She might complain about the trial on Tuesday, but doing that as a pretext to fleeing may turn out to be an unwise move. In short, she should be there on August 25.

 

The verdict in the trial of ex-commerce minister Boonsong Teriyapirom will be delivered the same day – is that bad news for Yingluck?

Boonsong has been on trial for failures in reselling rice “bought” from farmers. The cases are related so we shouldn’t read too much into the fact that Yingluck’s and Boonsong’s verdicts are both scheduled on August 25. Additionally, many judges have sat through both trials.

 

What will be the Yingluck verdict?

To be on the safe side and avoid contempt of court, we can only discuss the possibilities. There are three. The first is a guilty verdict with immediate punishment (most likely imprisonment without probation). The second is acquittal. And the third is a guilty verdict with suspended sentence. Politically, reaction to the third scenario will not be as strong as to the first and second possibilities. 

 

What will a guilty verdict with immediate punishment bring?

Definitely a social media uproar among her supporters. With key red-shirt leader Jatuporn Prompan now behind bars and the military in control, organising street protests will be tough. If convicted of dereliction of duty in overseeing the rice scheme leading to massive damage to the state, Yingluck could face up to 10 years in jail.

 

The opposite will happen with an acquittal. The other side of the political divide will make a lot of noise.

 

What if she is found guilty but gets a suspended sentence?

Many consider this the “compromise” outcome. Her supporters won’t be too happy but at least she won’t end up in jail. Meanwhile the other camp would likely settle for a guilty verdict and a ban from politics. A suspended sentence won’t bar her from politics, but Yingluck was previously impeached by the interim Parliament, which effectively prevents her from political involvement.

 

(Some have asked if an acquittal would lead to the parliamentary impeachment being reversed. That’s highly unlikely, if not entirely impossible. Court trials require clear-cut evidence whereas Parliament can make judgements based on scepticism alone.)

 

Will there be violence?

At the risk of being wrong, my money is on “No”.

 

Writer’s note: This article is based on analysis by NMG political editor Somroutai Sapsomboon and senior political reporter Opas Boonlom.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30321801

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2017-07-26

[klauskunkel]

Will there be tears?

Oh yes, one tear for every billion baht.

[williamgeorgeallen]

seems the general is really fearfull of what may happen and keeps saying the masses wont change the outcome. i suspect they will and the sentence will be suspended. wonder of the 1 billion dollar fine will be halved to apease the masses as well.

[petermik]

I am quite willing to offer comfort and support if she shows any signs of distress,a shoulder to cry on or a roof over her head

Edited July 26, 2017 by petermik

[Baerboxer]

1 hour ago, williamgeorgeallen said:

seems the general is really fearfull of what may happen and keeps saying the masses wont change the outcome. i suspect they will and the sentence will be suspended. wonder of the 1 billion dollar fine will be halved to apease the masses as well.

 

I don't think there was/is any chance she will actually be jailed. 

 

Negligence and mismanagement - no defense offered so far and hard to claim one when you never bothered attending or doing anything. But jail time - no way. Seizing assets, that she's had plenty of time to move off shore, transfer and hide, and a suspended sentence much more likely. All about making her and more importantly another Shin family member loose face. 

 

Several of her siblings have been convicted for various offences usually involving fraud. None jailed. Had Big Brother not fled and appealed I think he'd have gotten a suspended sentence too. But he was more worried about the other charges over cases like the Krungthai Bank fraud so ran.

 

But over the years, few of the HiSos elites ever do actual jail time. She won't.

 

Of course, that's all speculation and assuming she's found guilty. The Judges have been privy to much much more information than joe public to make their judgement.

Edited July 26, 2017 by Baerboxer

[hawker9000]

The "middle way outcome" is almost a given.

Edited August 14, 2017 by hawker9000