The Met Office has warned that the El Niño weather pattern developing over the Pacific Ocean is likely to be the strongest in living memory, with implications for global temperatures and the risk of extreme weather.
El Niño events can push up average temperatures worldwide and can alter rainfall and wind patterns across the globe. The Met Office said the effects of human-driven climate change, alongside El Niño, make it “very likely” that 2027 will be the warmest year on record.
There is already evidence that the changing climate patterns associated with El Niño are taking hold, including below-average monsoon rainfall in India and lower hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
The Met Office also warned that the UK could face a higher chance of a wet and stormy autumn as the event develops.
What Met Office Forecasts Suggest
The Met Office said sea-surface temperature anomalies across a key region of the Pacific are currently well above normal, with measurements showing levels more than 2C higher than average. Forecasts indicate the anomalies could rise beyond 3C later this year as El Niño approaches its peak.
The Met Office’s forecasts suggest this would be unprecedented in temperature records dating back to 1950, and could be the most intense event since the 19th century.
The warning comes as warmer conditions deeper in the ocean may add to the strength of the episode. In some places, temperatures at around 100m (330ft) in the Pacific are about 8C above average, providing additional heat that can help reinforce the event.
Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, said the signal in forecasts has been exceptionally strong, adding: “I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts.”
How El Niño Works
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that typically appears every two to seven years and lasts for around a year. It is linked to changes in Pacific trade winds, which usually blow from east to west.
During El Niño, these winds can weaken or reverse, allowing warm surface water to spread eastwards. As heat is released from the ocean into the atmosphere, global temperatures rise and rainfall patterns shift.
Scientists identify an El Niño when sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific are at least 0.5C above average. Current measurements are well beyond that threshold, according to the Met Office.
In comments reported by the Met Office, Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, said the ongoing development over coming months has increased confidence the event could be record-setting. Other climate groups have projected an even stronger outcome, potentially reaching around 4C above average.
Hausfather said it is possible, though not certain, that the event could be among the most intense El Niños for centuries, adding that evidence for such comparisons becomes increasingly difficult further back in time.
Impacts Seen Around the World
El Niño does not affect every region in the same way, and impacts can differ from one event to the next. However, the Met Office said there are signs that influences are already being felt.
It pointed to suppressed southwest monsoon rainfall in South Asia, with 2026 running well below normal. It also said shifts in wind patterns in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic can reduce hurricane activity, with only three named storms recorded so far this season.
In areas near the tropical Pacific, the Met Office said El Niño can contribute to drought and bushfire risk in Australia, while also increasing the threat of flooding in parts of Peru, Ecuador and the southern United States.
What It Could Mean for the UK
The Met Office said El Niño is not thought to be a major driver of the record-breaking heatwaves seen this summer. It suggested the pattern could have greater influence on weather later in the year.
It said the risk of wetter and stormier conditions could increase across north-west Europe during autumn and early winter, including the UK. It also noted that El Niño can affect the odds of cold weather later in winter, although the link is described as less clear.
2027 “Very Likely” Hottest Year
During El Niño, heat released from the ocean into the atmosphere can raise global average temperatures, particularly in the calendar year following the winter peak of the event. Dr Nick Dunstone, a climate scientist at the Met Office, said this makes 2027 “very likely” to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record.
Earlier this month, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization warned that El Niño could threaten tens of millions of people in at-risk countries with crisis-level acute food insecurity.
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21 August 2026
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