Ukraine has gained the upper hand in its war with Russia, according to several retired senior U.S. military officials, as Kyiv reports continued territorial gains and increasing success in disrupting Russian operations.
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The assessment comes after Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrski, said Ukrainian forces have recaptured 600 square kilometres (about 232 square miles) from Russian control since the start of the year. He did not specify the locations of the advances but said the most intense fighting was taking place in the southeastern areas of Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole.
Retired Generals See Ukrainian Advantage
Retired Lieutenant General Robert Ashley, who previously led the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, said Ukraine was succeeding at the operational level by preventing Russia from achieving its objectives while preserving its own ability to conduct future operations.
Two other retired U.S. generals echoed that view, arguing that Ukrainian forces have been consistently outmanoeuvring their Russian counterparts on the battlefield.
However, they stressed that operational success does not necessarily translate into a decisive victory in the broader war.
Drone Warfare Reshapes the Battlefield
Military analysts point to Ukraine’s expanding drone capabilities as a key reason for its recent gains.
Since 2023, Ukraine has built a large fleet of first-person-view (FPV) drones, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said account for more than 90% of Russian battlefield casualties.
Ukraine has also expanded its use of long-range drones and cruise missiles. These weapons have been used to strike targets deep inside Russia, including military facilities near St. Petersburg, hundreds of miles from the Ukrainian border.
A major challenge had been striking targets located between roughly 30 and 60 miles behind the front line. Analysts now say Ukrainian forces have largely overcome that obstacle.
Pressure on Russian Logistics
Military analyst and former U.S. Marine officer Rob Lee said Ukrainian units are increasingly conducting regular strikes against command centres, ammunition depots, vehicle concentrations and logistics hubs located well behind Russian front-line positions.
According to Lee, these attacks are aimed at weakening the supply networks that sustain Russian offensives. Over time, such strikes could reduce the flow of personnel, equipment and ammunition reaching front-line troops.
The growing use of mid-range drones is particularly significant in what has become a prolonged war of attrition, with both sides seeking to exhaust the other's military and economic resources.
No Clear End in Sight
Despite the positive assessments of Ukraine’s recent performance, experts cautioned that the conflict remains highly uncertain.
Ashley described Ukraine’s gains as fragile and warned that the situation could change depending on how Russian President Vladimir Putin chooses to escalate the conflict.
Lee similarly argued that while conditions have improved for Ukraine, a major breakthrough remains unlikely.
Retired General Joseph Ralston said neither side could currently claim victory. He argued that Russia lacks the strength to seize all the territory it seeks, while Ukraine does not yet have the capability to recover all the land it has lost.
Even so, Ashley maintained that recent battlefield developments favour Kyiv. He said both Russia and Ukraine still believe they can achieve victory, making a ceasefire unlikely in the near future, while suggesting that time may not be working in Moscow’s favour.
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Adapted by ASEAN Now. Source 11 June 2026