US Intelligence Says Iran Can Close Hormuz at Will

Iran's southern coastline is approx 2050 km .. if they decide to FA then they they should FO

the entire southern coast line and all ports should be totally decimated, and that would include all the speedboats and launchers

Good . They will certainly need the leverage in the future.

Iran have proved they can do it effectively, they have blocked the Strait of Hormuz for 3 months causing crude oil and a host of other things to spike in price.

The US can't keep warships in the region on a long term basis, the only effective way to solve this problem, would be to build overland 'pipes' to transport the oil?

By physically tying the oil fields to alternative, deep-water ocean ports outside the Persian Gulf, the West can gradually bleed away Iran’s leverage

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Recent US intelligence assessments conclude that Iran can effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz whenever it chooses, giving Tehran a powerful tool to disrupt global trade and energy markets after the recent conflict, according to sources familiar with the findings.

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The assessments suggest Iran demonstrated its ability to block access to the strategic waterway during the war and could repeat the tactic in future crises, even if a framework agreement expected to be signed on Friday succeeds in reopening the route and launching new nuclear negotiations.

Iran's Strait Leverage Raises New US Concerns

One source familiar with the intelligence findings said the conflict had fundamentally changed Iran's calculations, describing control of the strait as a strategic asset with far-reaching economic consequences.

Military Capabilities Remain Intact

US officials believe Iran retains a substantial portion of its military arsenal, including missiles, drones, launch systems and hundreds of fast attack boats capable of harassing shipping or deploying naval mines.

According to sources, intelligence agencies have also observed Iran rebuilding parts of its military-industrial base faster than expected and restarting drone production.

The assessments further conclude that Iran learned it could use strikes against Gulf energy infrastructure as an effective asymmetric weapon, adding another source of leverage beyond direct military confrontation.

Although discussions have taken place about possible allied efforts to help secure the waterway after it reopens, officials remain uncertain about how such arrangements would operate.

Agreement Tied to Reopening the Waterway

A senior US official told CNN that Iran will receive no benefits from the framework agreement unless it keeps the strait open and complies with other commitments. The official said the United States would ease its blockade in proportion to Iran's restoration of maritime traffic.

Another source familiar with the negotiations said Iran's disruption of shipping had strained relations with China and Gulf states, highlighting the economic costs Tehran faces when interfering with global energy flows.

Even if the agreement is implemented, shipping experts and industry officials expect uncertainty to limit traffic through the chokepoint for weeks or months.

Concerns Over Wider Regional Disruption

US intelligence officials are also examining the possibility that Iran could seek to pressure global markets through another key trade route, the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.

Sources said Tehran has considered using the Houthis in Yemen to disrupt traffic through the Red Sea gateway if negotiations with Washington collapse. Closing both Bab-el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz would have severe consequences for global trade and energy supplies.

While officials noted the Houthis have so far refrained from broad attacks on Western shipping, expanding operations beyond Israeli-linked vessels would represent a major escalation.

Questions Over US Strategy

The assessments have renewed scrutiny of President Donald Trump's decision to launch military operations against Iran. Sources said the administration underestimated Tehran's willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz, partly because officials believed such a move would inflict greater harm on Iran than on the United States.

US officials also expected China to use its influence to discourage Tehran from taking that step.

Instead, intelligence agencies now believe Iran was emboldened by its ability to disrupt shipping and target regional energy infrastructure without exhausting significant military resources.

Some officials assess that Tehran is now more likely to consider closing the strait in future confrontations, particularly after demonstrating both the intent and capability to do so.

Trump said this week that the strait is already partially reopened and should be fully open by Friday when Washington and Tehran are expected to sign a memorandum of understanding. However, questions remain about how any agreement would prevent Iran from using the same tactic again in the future.

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Adapted by ASEAN Now. Source 17 June 2026

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No news at all. Amazing that US intelligence Service did find out. Amazingly intelligence 😂

19 minutes ago, newbee2022 said:

No news at all. Amazing that US intelligence Service did find out. Amazingly intelligence 😂

It’s amazing they still exist donald doesent like people that deal In reality and facts..that is unless it supports donalds latest scheme.

51 minutes ago, Luuk Chaai said:

Iran's southern coastline is approx 2050 km .. if they decide to FA then they they should FO

the entire southern coast line and all ports should be totally decimated, and that would include all the speedboats and launchers

Wow great solution tough guy😂😂😂 They tried but failed miserably. It shows you can talk all you like but what matters is substance. Time to pack their bags and go back to where they belong leaving other parts of the world alone.

I just read the MOU and it reads good. 14pt

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Recent US intelligence assessments conclude that Iran can effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz whenever it chooses,

So what you're really saying here is that the whole American war/police action/thing is a failure as it hasn't succeeded in its objective?

1 hour ago, newbee2022 said:

No news at all. Amazing that US intelligence Service did find out. Amazingly intelligence 😂

Amazing the current US "Intelligence" Service even knew where Iran was located.

3 minutes ago, wombat said:

So what you're really saying here is that the whole American war/police action/thing is a failure as it hasn't succeeded in its objective?

What Objectives !! trump changes his mind Daily !! this "American war/police action/thing" is an utter failure, you Yanks are going to pay with your tax dollars

1 hour ago, Smokey and the Bandit said:

Iran have proved they can do it effectively, they have blocked the Strait of Hormuz for 3 months causing crude oil and a host of other things to spike in price.

The US can't keep warships in the region on a long term basis, the only effective way to solve this problem, would be to build overland 'pipes' to transport the oil?

By physically tying the oil fields to alternative, deep-water ocean ports outside the Persian Gulf, the West can gradually bleed away Iran’s leverage

Would not work !!

Land-based pipelines traversing hundreds of miles are inherently vulnerable to military strikes, drones, or sabotage, meaning they do not necessarily eliminate the security risks associated with maritime chokepoints.

Replicating the massive volume of the Strait of Hormuz using pipelines would require hundreds of billions of dollars. Because much of Iran's oil revenue is restricted, funding such monumental projects is nearly impossible.

For international transport across oceans, maritime shipping remains vastly cheaper than overland transport because Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) offer immense economies of scale

The Strait of Hormuz has been opened since 1979 when the Islamic Republic was established. It will be rather naive to think that Iran just found out the important in leverage closing Hormuz, US Intelligence has been warning of the closing of Hormuz as a weapon for years. This just summed up the stupidity of Trump to follow Netanyahu's lead to attack Iran. Past POTUS realized the folly of such an unwarranted attack but not Trump. Closing Hormuz is a last resort for Iran as it also hurt their economy and hurt their relationship with the Gulf nations and anger the world community. But this time, they have the moral high ground.

17 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

The Strait of Hormuz has been opened since 1979 when the Islamic Republic was established. It will be rather naive to think that Iran just found out the important in leverage closing Hormuz, US Intelligence has been warning of the closing of Hormuz as a weapon for years. This just summed up the stupidity of Trump to follow Netanyahu's lead to attack Iran. Past POTUS realized the folly of such an unwarranted attack but not Trump. Closing Hormuz is a last resort for Iran as it also hurt their economy and hurt their relationship with the Gulf nations and anger the world community. But this time, they have the moral high ground.

This war Arabs and Jews has been going on since around the 1920s They hate each other ! the only way this will end is if one or the other are gone ! so there is NO MoU Deal will ever stop this Trump may want to stop but Bibi will not !!

8 minutes ago, MikeandDow said:

Would not work !!

Land-based pipelines traversing hundreds of miles are inherently vulnerable to military strikes, drones, or sabotage, meaning they do not necessarily eliminate the security risks associated with maritime chokepoints.

Replicating the massive volume of the Strait of Hormuz using pipelines would require hundreds of billions of dollars. Because much of Iran's oil revenue is restricted, funding such monumental projects is nearly impossible.

For international transport across oceans, maritime shipping remains vastly cheaper than overland transport because Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) offer immense economies of scale

While pipelines are static targets, they are basically "repair zones" rather than maritime "kill zones."

If an Iranian drone strikes a pipeline on sovereign Saudi soil, engineers can patch the steel and restore throughput within days, that actually happened.

If a drone strikes a 300,000-ton supertanker inside the narrow Strait of Hormuz, the vessel is lost, the waterway is littered with mines, and global insurers instantly freeze the entire maritime market.

Wealthy Gulf neighbors like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have already built and utilized the infrastructure— networks like the Petroline and Habshan systems successfully move nearly half of the Gulf’s daily volume entirely outside Iran's immediate strike envelope.

The baseline cost of overland transport to ocean-going vessels is a peacetime calculation that ignores wartime math.

The economies of scale offered by Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) vanish the moment war-risk insurance premiums skyrocket by 1,000% or underwriters refuse to cover hulls entering an active combat zone.

Pipelines do not replace ocean transport; they simply shift the loading zone.

By pumping crude overland to deep-water ports on the Red Sea or the Gulf of Oman, the exact same massive tankers can still be loaded to maximum capacity.

This allows the global energy supply chain to bypass the dynamic missile and fast-boat threat entirely, neutralizing the Strait of Hormuz as a tool for asymmetric blackmail.

8 minutes ago, Smokey and the Bandit said:

While pipelines are static targets, they are basically "repair zones" rather than maritime "kill zones."

If an Iranian drone strikes a pipeline on sovereign Saudi soil, engineers can patch the steel and restore throughput within days, that actually happened.

If a drone strikes a 300,000-ton supertanker inside the narrow Strait of Hormuz, the vessel is lost, the waterway is littered with mines, and global insurers instantly freeze the entire maritime market.

Wealthy Gulf neighbors like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have already built and utilized the infrastructure— networks like the Petroline and Habshan systems successfully move nearly half of the Gulf’s daily volume entirely outside Iran's immediate strike envelope.

The baseline cost of overland transport to ocean-going vessels is a peacetime calculation that ignores wartime math.

The economies of scale offered by Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) vanish the moment war-risk insurance premiums skyrocket by 1,000% or underwriters refuse to cover hulls entering an active combat zone.

Pipelines do not replace ocean transport; they simply shift the loading zone.

By pumping crude overland to deep-water ports on the Red Sea or the Gulf of Oman, the exact same massive tankers can still be loaded to maximum capacity.

This allows the global energy supply chain to bypass the dynamic missile and fast-boat threat entirely, neutralizing the Strait of Hormuz as a tool for asymmetric blackmail.

The primary reason pipelines cannot serve as the sole solution is a massive deficit in volumetric capacity

Historically, approximately 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and refined products transit the Strait of Hormuz.

Even with high-utilization contingency infrastructure, the combined maximum capacity of all active bypass pipelines in the Middle East maxes out at only 8 to 9 million bpd. This leaves a shortfall of over 10 million bpd that cannot be moved overland

Rerouting oil via pipeline to alternative coastlines often just moves the vulnerability elsewhere. For instance, oil pumped to Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast must still pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, exposing tankers to regional maritime threats like Houthi drone strikes.

Pipelines built for crude oil cannot transport Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Major gas exporters, like Qatar, remain entirely dependent on maritime shipping lines because rebuilding equivalent LNG pipeline networks across borders is economically and physically unfeasible.

Constructing new transnational networks—such as proposed routes from Iraq through Saudi Arabia to Omani ports—carries a price tag upwards of $55 billion and requires 7to 10yrs to build

Pipelines remain an essential "Plan B" to keep partial volumes of oil flowing during geopolitical crises, but global energy markets still fundamentally rely on keeping open maritime sea lanes.

if you bomb a pipeline you would not just bomb one spot but several areas If multiple pump stations, refineries, or complex processing units were bombed alongside the pipeline network, repairs to the broader infrastructure can take anywhere from several months to two years not easy in a war zone

How many problems was the world having with the Strait of Hormuz prior to this unbelievably ridiculous and poorly timed war of choice, by America's sorry, pathetic, dumb, non visionary, incoherent, feeble, street trash president?

This was a huge level of sabotage inflicted upon the world, at a time when a lot of people are having a hard time getting by to begin with. What were the reasons America went to war and was anything meaningful achieved on any level? Other than the grand diminishment of American influence? And nearly total and complete humiliation for the idiot president?

3 hours ago, Tug said:

It’s amazing they still exist donald doesent like people that deal In reality and facts..that is unless it supports donalds latest scheme.

Quite true.

Most of the Iran and counterproliferation experts were fired by Ratcliffe, via Trump's insistence, because their opinions differed from Trump's "gut feel".

Trump was told exactly what would happen if the US attacked Iran, rather than try to negotiate The experts were 100% correct, as if they could see the future. Even back in Trump 1.0, before he quashed the JCPOA, Trump was told of exactly where the Iran nuke program was (100% ended), as well as what would happen if the US attacked. Still, Trump nixxed the JCPOA, and Iran immediately began enrichment again.

Under the JCPOA, Iran's high speed centrifuges were destroyed---at least the ones remaining after Obama unleashed the Stuxnet virus. The companies that make HSC are minimal, and most are in the EU and easy to monitor. Iran had been buying from a company in Malaysia. The agency closed that down and shut off any Iranian access to the gear they would need (I thought this was still classified, but I saw it recently in an open source material). Another way the agency monitored compliance is by noting the power systems near any govt facility, as HSC need an exact and precise energy delivery system, lest they wobble and self-destruct.

The agency also monitored the commo of nuke experts, such as the late AQ Khan, who had been advising Iran prior to the JCPOA.

As far as nukes and enriched material beyond 3%, Iran was 100% done. Obama achieved that without the Strait closing, without inflation, without senseless slaughter, without killing 168 elementary schoolgirls, without spending more than $100 billion, without losing allies and friends, without causing any associated damage to Gulf oil and gas production facilities, and without the loss of any American lives.

So along comes the clown who has Obama living rent free in his addled brain. He quashed the JCPOA, had all experts fired, and embarked on his war of choice that Iran has won.

Oh, and save for Milley and Esper in Trump 1.0, Trump wanted to attack Iran BEFORE the 2020 election he lost, figuring he might be able to declare a national emergency and stay in power.

Trump is Born to Lose. He showed the world that again caving---taco-ing----to the mullahs.

4 hours ago, AustinRacing said:

Wow great solution tough guy😂😂😂 They tried but failed miserably. It shows you can talk all you like but what matters is substance. Time to pack their bags and go back to where they belong leaving other parts of the world alone.

WOW, copy EU policies?

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

How many problems was the world having with the Strait of Hormuz prior to this unbelievably ridiculous and poorly timed war of choice, by America's sorry, pathetic, dumb, non visionary, incoherent, feeble, street trash president?

This was a huge level of sabotage inflicted upon the world, at a time when a lot of people are having a hard time getting by to begin with. What were the reasons America went to war and was anything meaningful achieved on any level? Other than the grand diminishment of American influence? And nearly total and complete humiliation for the idiot president?

Spider, take your mule blinders off so you can see the Whole picture.

2 hours ago, MikeandDow said:

The primary reason pipelines cannot serve as the sole solution is a massive deficit in volumetric capacity

Historically, approximately 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and refined products transit the Strait of Hormuz.

Even with high-utilization contingency infrastructure, the combined maximum capacity of all active bypass pipelines in the Middle East maxes out at only 8 to 9 million bpd. This leaves a shortfall of over 10 million bpd that cannot be moved overland

Rerouting oil via pipeline to alternative coastlines often just moves the vulnerability elsewhere. For instance, oil pumped to Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast must still pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, exposing tankers to regional maritime threats like Houthi drone strikes.

Pipelines built for crude oil cannot transport Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Major gas exporters, like Qatar, remain entirely dependent on maritime shipping lines because rebuilding equivalent LNG pipeline networks across borders is economically and physically unfeasible.

Constructing new transnational networks—such as proposed routes from Iraq through Saudi Arabia to Omani ports—carries a price tag upwards of $55 billion and requires 7to 10yrs to build

Pipelines remain an essential "Plan B" to keep partial volumes of oil flowing during geopolitical crises, but global energy markets still fundamentally rely on keeping open maritime sea lanes.

if you bomb a pipeline you would not just bomb one spot but several areas If multiple pump stations, refineries, or complex processing units were bombed alongside the pipeline network, repairs to the broader infrastructure can take anywhere from several months to two years not easy in a war zone

So Mike, what is Your plan to resolve this Choke Point? The commenters here will critique your plan after you share it with the group.

3 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

The Strait of Hormuz has been opened since 1979 when the Islamic Republic was established. It will be rather naive to think that Iran just found out the important in leverage closing Hormuz, US Intelligence has been warning of the closing of Hormuz as a weapon for years. This just summed up the stupidity of Trump to follow Netanyahu's lead to attack Iran. Past POTUS realized the folly of such an unwarranted attack but not Trump. Closing Hormuz is a last resort for Iran as it also hurt their economy and hurt their relationship with the Gulf nations and anger the world community. But this time, they have the moral high ground.

Besides all of the hurt the Strait causes the world, of citizens dying and buildings demolished, how would a terrorist regime that's killed thousands of it's own citizens for talking, along with others from many nations in terror attacks, be taking the moral high ground?

Don't you think something needed to be done to the regime, even if this wasn't the right approach?

A lot complain, but I see no one telling what could have been done to stop Iran from it's past history, which would certainly have continued. Hopefully it doesn't, which would surely show it wasn't done right, or not enough.

11 minutes ago, cdulaney said:

So Mike, what is Your plan to resolve this Choke Point? The commenters here will critique your plan after you share it with the group.

Get rid of Trump for a start !!!!

6 hours ago, Luuk Chaai said:

Iran's southern coastline is approx 2050 km .. if they decide to FA then they they should FO

the entire southern coast line and all ports should be totally decimated, and that would include all the speedboats and launchers

Ah, you mean the Southern coast adjacent to the Gulf of Trump!

3 hours ago, Smokey and the Bandit said:

While pipelines are static targets, they are basically "repair zones" rather than maritime "kill zones."

If an Iranian drone strikes a pipeline on sovereign Saudi soil, engineers can patch the steel and restore throughput within days, that actually happened.

If a drone strikes a 300,000-ton supertanker inside the narrow Strait of Hormuz, the vessel is lost, the waterway is littered with mines, and global insurers instantly freeze the entire maritime market.

Wealthy Gulf neighbors like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have already built and utilized the infrastructure— networks like the Petroline and Habshan systems successfully move nearly half of the Gulf’s daily volume entirely outside Iran's immediate strike envelope.

The baseline cost of overland transport to ocean-going vessels is a peacetime calculation that ignores wartime math.

The economies of scale offered by Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) vanish the moment war-risk insurance premiums skyrocket by 1,000% or underwriters refuse to cover hulls entering an active combat zone.

Pipelines do not replace ocean transport; they simply shift the loading zone.

By pumping crude overland to deep-water ports on the Red Sea or the Gulf of Oman, the exact same massive tankers can still be loaded to maximum capacity.

This allows the global energy supply chain to bypass the dynamic missile and fast-boat threat entirely, neutralizing the Strait of Hormuz as a tool for asymmetric blackmail.

While pipeline can be repaired fairly quickly, once the break is discovered, you are failing to include the environmental consequences. Of course, human beings will be living there. It's a complete myth that the Middle East is an endless sea of desert. It's quite possible to break such a pipeline in multiple locations, making repair far longer and with far more environmental damage.

20 minutes ago, fredwiggy said:

Besides all of the hurt the Strait causes the world, of citizens dying and buildings demolished, how would a terrorist regime that's killed thousands of it's own citizens for talking, along with others from many nations in terror attacks, be taking the moral high ground?

Don't you think something needed to be done to the regime, even if this wasn't the right approach?

A lot complain, but I see no one telling what could have been done to stop Iran from it's past history, which would certainly have continued. Hopefully it doesn't, which would surely show it wasn't done right, or not enough.

Iran's past history? What about US past history, interfering globally in sovereign affairs. Let Iran govern itself. The US has not attempted to intervene in other dictatorships, presumably beneficial to their interests.

Nope, this was Bibi's war. Israel should be paying the reparations. Tough titty!

27 minutes ago, fredwiggy said:

Besides all of the hurt the Strait causes the world, of citizens dying and buildings demolished, how would a terrorist regime that's killed thousands of it's own citizens for talking, along with others from many nations in terror attacks, be taking the moral high ground?

Don't you think something needed to be done to the regime, even if this wasn't the right approach?

A lot complain, but I see no one telling what could have been done to stop Iran from it's past history, which would certainly have continued. Hopefully it doesn't, which would surely show it wasn't done right, or not enough.

Iran needs to decide, none of any other countries' business.

5 minutes ago, unblocktheplanet said:

Iran's past history? What about US past history, interfering globally in sovereign affairs. Let Iran govern itself. The US has not attempted to intervene in other dictatorships, presumably beneficial to their interests.

Nope, this was Bibi's war. Israel should be paying the reparations. Tough titty!

So, let Iran continue to slaughter it's citizens, along with terrorist attacks on other nations? Nah, eliminate all terrorists, which leaves us peace. The US will continue to intervene when innocents are targeted, and you can't blame them, as not many others are trying. Iran's citizens are tired of what's been going on, most of them, the others who supported a terrorist regime aren't helping the rest.

5 hours ago, wombat said:

So what you're really saying here is that the whole American war/police action/thing is a failure as it hasn't succeeded in its objective?

Stop making sense. You heard Donald say the US won weeks ago. What more do you want?

6 hours ago, Smokey and the Bandit said:

Iran have proved they can do it effectively, they have blocked the Strait of Hormuz for 3 months causing crude oil and a host of other things to spike in price.

The US can't keep warships in the region on a long term basis, the only effective way to solve this problem, would be to build overland 'pipes' to transport the oil?

By physically tying the oil fields to alternative, deep-water ocean ports outside the Persian Gulf, the West can gradually bleed away Iran’s leverage

The Wall Street Journal has reported that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are already planning to augment their existing pipelines. However, pipelines are vulnerable to drone attack, and the Houthis could also block the Bab el Mandeb at the south end of the Red Sea. This would stop Saudi oil from getting to East Asia from their pipeline terminus.

1 hour ago, fredwiggy said:

Besides all of the hurt the Strait causes the world, of citizens dying and buildings demolished, how would a terrorist regime that's killed thousands of it's own citizens for talking, along with others from many nations in terror attacks, be taking the moral high ground?

Don't you think something needed to be done to the regime, even if this wasn't the right approach?

A lot complain, but I see no one telling what could have been done to stop Iran from it's past history, which would certainly have continued. Hopefully it doesn't, which would surely show it wasn't done right, or not enough.

US violated the UN Charter to attack the sovereignity of Iran. Iran will utilize every defence mechanism to prevent their country from capitulation. That is the moral high ground.

Killings of own citizens whether in the Streets of Tehran or in Minnesota should be condemned. Trump has admitted that the United States covertly attempted to arm Iranian dissidents and protesters is an act of terrorism. Guns were smuggled into the country. Iranians have the right to determine their future without US interference.

Past history of Iran is marked by decades of US interference as far back as 1953 when the CIA orchestrated a coup to overthrowed the democratically elected government to arming Iraq in their war with Iran. US excessive interference in the Middle-East for decades has de-stablized the region.