Currency Forcasts For 2006

[Ricardo]

The monk at my local wat assures me that, when global-meltdown happens & the seas rise to flood most world-cities (being coastal) , my money will be totally secure in Baht in a Thai bank-account. Because Thailand is mostly above sea-level. I guess it's a point-of-view.

He seemed surprised at my lack-of-confidence in a Bangkok-based banks' computers' ability to survive total immersion, but still thinks the Baht is a good bet for 2006.

I don't believe everything I'm told, sadly although I'm usually willing to listen politely.

What do TV-members think the Baht will do , this year , and why ? The rate against the US$ and £Stg is of particular interest - in my own case.

[bdenner]

If I had the foresight to know the answer I'd be a rich man. IMO People the likes of financial advisors would not be if they knew how to play the game with 100% positive results -- why do it for others if they could do it for themselves???

Just an observation:- Over the past few weeks the USD has strenghtened against all major currencies, but the xrate between USD - THB has hardly moved. You figure it because I can't.

[Thaipwriter]

Pound to strenghen against the Baht, possibly as high as 77 -78.

Baht is punching above it's weight I reckon. Too much consumer debt, and Tsumani fallout here for Baht to hold its own againt the big guns much longer

[Chivas]

Pound to strenghen against the Baht, possibly as high as 77 -78.

Baht is punching above it's weight I reckon. Too much consumer debt, and Tsumani fallout here for Baht to hold its own againt the big guns much longer

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Opening post got it right IMHO.

Baht is stable at around 41 interbank re the dollar, but sterling is dropping against the dollar but should stabilise at around 1.65 giving an exchange rate of 68 or thereabouts.

Far better than just 26 Baht/STERLING which it was was in 1985 when sterling/dollar were on a par !!

[The Philosopher]

Pound to strenghen against the Baht, possibly as high as 77 -78.

Baht is punching above it's weight I reckon. Too much consumer debt, and Tsumani fallout here for Baht to hold its own againt the big guns much longer

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Could not agree more rising fuel prices will also soon hit - underpriced in Thailand at present. The whole shooting match could easily foster some political unrest baht will weaken this year.

[dr_Pat_Pong]

The monk at my local wat assures me that, when global-meltdown happens & the seas rise to flood most world-cities (being coastal) , my money will be totally secure in Baht in a Thai bank-account.  Because Thailand is mostly above sea-level.  I guess it's a point-of-view.

He seemed surprised at my lack-of-confidence in a Bangkok-based banks' computers' ability to survive total immersion,  but still thinks the Baht is a good bet for 2006.

I don't believe everything I'm told, sadly  although I'm usually willing to listen politely.

What do TV-members think the Baht will do , this year , and why ?  The rate against the US$ and £Stg is of particular interest  -  in my own case. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Does this Monk reckon that Bangkok is above sea level

[LaoPo]

The monk at my local wat assures me that, when global-meltdown happens & the seas rise to flood most world-cities (being coastal) , my money will be totally secure in Baht in a Thai bank-account.  Because Thailand is mostly above sea-level.  I guess it's a point-of-view.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This is a bit odd.

A global meltdown will not happen overnight but slowly. If there is a GLOBAL disaster (any kind) it will effect all countries Globally. We do not live any longer in a certain country but are dependent on each other.

SO, it will effect the Thai baht also, including all other currencies.

LaoPo

[Firefan]

I have no clue what the Baht will do so I diversify my investments as well as my currencies to avoid that one currency dropping (against the others, or even against gold/commodities) will not wipe me out. (a flood wave might though! ). Cheers!

[Ricardo]

The monk at my local wat assures me that, when global-meltdown happens & the seas rise to flood most world-cities (being coastal) , my money will be totally secure in Baht in a Thai bank-account.  Because Thailand is mostly above sea-level.  I guess it's a point-of-view.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This is a bit odd.

A global meltdown will not happen overnight but slowly. If there is a GLOBAL disaster (any kind) it will effect all countries Globally. We do not live any longer in a certain country but are dependent on each other.

SO, it will effect the Thai baht also, including all other currencies.

LaoPo

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

He says it will happen very rapidly, over perhaps several months, with severe dislocation to the world economy. (No kidding ? ! ) I agree with Dr.P that, last time I looked, Bangkok is close to sea-level, hence my view that the banks' computers will be under water, and Thai-Baht on a computer-record worth less than sfa.

On the other hand, if most of the food-producing areas of Thailand remain above the new sea-level, then the country can still feed itself, and some sort of economy might continue.

The monk story is really an interesting 'hook' to hang the question on currency-rates.

Then again, I've heard all the usual senarios, about how global-warming may jump when the annual polar ice-cap melt-down reaches 100%. The 'Economist - World in 2006' was discussing this as a serious possibility. And I personally take their reporting with a much smaller pinch-of-salt, than the monk's views.

[Mr_Dave]

The monk at my local wat assures me that, when global-meltdown happens ...[snip] ... my money will be totally secure in Baht in a Thai bank-account. ...[snip]...  thinks the Baht is a good bet for 2006.

Ricardo, excellent topic.

Your bank account may be safe, but the purchasing power will be washed away on the tide.

The polite word is "inflation".

A more accurate concept is, as you indicated, "global, melt-down".

All fiat currencies - not gold or silver - are headed for very stormy times.

The details are beyond the scope of this forum, but a Google search will reveal many sources.

As for your friend, the monk, money would seem of little concern to any monk, would it not?

But we can easily observe that Buddah images in the wats are covered in thick layers of gold, not baht paper.

Hmmmm...

[LaoPo]

The monk at my local wat assures me that, when global-meltdown happens ...[snip] ... my money will be totally secure in Baht in a Thai bank-account. ...[snip]...  thinks the Baht is a good bet for 2006.

Ricardo, excellent topic.

Your bank account may be safe, but the purchasing power will be washed away on the tide.

The polite word is "inflation".

A more accurate concept is, as you indicated, "global, melt-down".

All fiat currencies - not gold or silver - are headed for very stormy times.

The details are beyond the scope of this forum, but a Google search will reveal many sources.

As for your friend, the monk, money would seem of little concern to any monk, would it not?

But we can easily observe that Buddah images in the wats are covered in thick layers of gold, not baht paper.

Hmmmm...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Right....Clever Monks!

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

The monk at my local wat assures me that, when global-meltdown happens & the seas rise to flood most world-cities (being coastal) , my money will be totally secure in Baht in a Thai bank-account.  Because Thailand is mostly above sea-level.  I guess it's a point-of-view.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This is a bit odd.

A global meltdown will not happen overnight but slowly. If there is a GLOBAL disaster (any kind) it will effect all countries Globally. We do not live any longer in a certain country but are dependent on each other.

SO, it will effect the Thai baht also, including all other currencies.

LaoPo

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

He says it will happen very rapidly, over perhaps several months, with severe dislocation to the world economy. (No kidding ? ! )

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I hope 'your' Monk is wrong but Nostradamus also predicted worldwide disasters, including a most horrorfying Tsunami (due to sea/earthquakes) in California in the late '90's....

Now, that hasn't become true, as of yet, but we all know...it can happen any day in the near future...maybe 'your' Monk sees a 'meltdown' as a kind of Tsunami....very frightening indeed!

We had a tsunami just 1 year ago, didn't we?...And we know the results.

LaoPo

[britmaveric]

Bht will be about the same or lower - def wont see a strong bht.

Edited January 2, 2006 by britmaveric

[Buff-horns]

depends on the outcome of Russia shutting off supllies to Ukraine/Europe and the fallout to global energy supplies ,which could become more pricy and unstable .

Its known that BKK is sinking every year into the sludge its built on .

[thaistick]

One word-Switzerland.

Swiss francs-one of the world's hardest currencies and regarded as a safe currency in turbulent times and one of the few actually backed by gold in Swiss vaults.

Swiss banks and government known for stability.

A high altitude country with many mountains far above sea level.

[Khun Bob]

Has the baht stayed relatively stable against the dollar because the basket of thai currencies holds alot of dollars ?

Come to that does anyone know what is in the thai currency basket ?

If I had the foresight to know the answer I'd be a rich man. IMO People the likes of financial advisors would not be if they knew how to play the game with 100% positive results -- why do it for others if they could do it for themselves???

Just an observation:- Over the past few weeks the USD has strenghtened against all major currencies, but the xrate between USD - THB has hardly moved. You figure it because I can't.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Tywais]

Has the baht stayed relatively stable against the dollar because the basket of thai currencies holds alot of dollars ?

Come to that does anyone know what is in the thai currency basket ?

Don't know how old this is but:

http://www.sawadeethailand.com/travelinfo/...ngingmoney.html

Also another interesting item on pegging and baskets.

http://www.iie.com/publications/papers/pap...?researchid=280

[samran]

Has the baht stayed relatively stable against the dollar because the basket of thai currencies holds alot of dollars ?

Come to that does anyone know what is in the thai currency basket ?

If I had the foresight to know the answer I'd be a rich man. IMO People the likes of financial advisors would not be if they knew how to play the game with 100% positive results -- why do it for others if they could do it for themselves???

Just an observation:- Over the past few weeks the USD has strenghtened against all major currencies, but the xrate between USD - THB has hardly moved. You figure it because I can't.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It is the worst kept secret that the Baht is more or less tied to the US dollar. A little fluctuation here and there, but, at the end of the day, not much of a change.

[expatinasia]

"If there is a GLOBAL disaster (any kind) it will effect all countries Globally."

Thanks for the insight, It's hard to argue with that...

[Carmine6]

Has the baht stayed relatively stable against the dollar because the basket of thai currencies holds alot of dollars ?

Come to that does anyone know what is in the thai currency basket ?

If I had the foresight to know the answer I'd be a rich man. IMO People the likes of financial advisors would not be if they knew how to play the game with 100% positive results -- why do it for others if they could do it for themselves???

Just an observation:- Over the past few weeks the USD has strenghtened against all major currencies, but the xrate between USD - THB has hardly moved. You figure it because I can't.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It is the worst kept secret that the Baht is more or less tied to the US dollar. A little fluctuation here and there, but, at the end of the day, not much of a change.

Looks like it's tied to the dollar until there's too much pressure, then it snaps. Of those 2 links from tywais, one was before the '97 crisis and one is after. So even though both say the dollar is over 80% of the currency basket, one says it hasn't varied much from 26 Baht per $ and the other says it's stable around 40 Baht per $.

[Fore Man]

Does anybody have a clue as to why the USD to THB rate nosedived since New Years? It is now 39.92 for wire transfers and in early December it was a nice 41.32 at its high at the end of 2005. Has anyone seen any projections for the THB-USD exchange rate in the near term (next 6 months or so?). Americans lose spending power in Thailand when the exchange rate drops and in my case I am preparing to build a house. The drop in the exchange rate is of vital importance and should be to any American with income derived in the USA but converted to THB and transferred here.

[strabel23]

Does anybody have a clue as to why the USD to THB rate nosedived since New Years? It is now 39.92 for wire transfers and in early December it was a nice 41.32 at its high at the end of 2005. Has anyone seen any projections for the THB-USD exchange rate in the near term (next 6 months or so?). Americans lose spending power in Thailand when the exchange rate drops and in my case I am preparing to build a house. The drop in the exchange rate is of vital importance and should be to any American with income derived in the USA but converted to THB and transferred here.

The Thai Bht has appreciated because of the foreign fund inflow into the thai capital market as well as an improving domestic economy. Hope this helps.

[lmponder]

Does anybody have a clue as to why the USD to THB rate nosedived since New Years? It is now 39.92 for wire transfers and in early December it was a nice 41.32 at its high at the end of 2005. Has anyone seen any projections for the THB-USD exchange rate in the near term (next 6 months or so?). Americans lose spending power in Thailand when the exchange rate drops and in my case I am preparing to build a house. The drop in the exchange rate is of vital importance and should be to any American with income derived in the USA but converted to THB and transferred here.

I am in similar situation. However, I already know which way the Baht will go. UP.

Did not read any of the garbage on here about the Baht going down (vs USD). Thailand is in much better shape than the U.S and thus the Baht will appreciate against the U.S this year. I have been transferring as much money as I can from USD to Thai Baht as humanly possible (Most of my money I switched from USD to CAN dollars, which is way up vs the USD).

If your expecting the baht to stay at 41, you'll be crying when it hits 35.

Mark my words, Put Thai Baht " at least 35" on your calendar for June 2006.

Don't take currency advice from anyone who doesn't have a finance/economics degree and knowledge of both US and Thai economics.

As for Gold/Silver, I've made good money on it, It will probably go up as inflation hits Asia but then again deflation has been hitting the USD (offsetting the housing/stock asset inflation). Expect gold to explode if the USD falls rapidly. DISCLAIMER (I sold my gold position last week hoping to buy in again on a correction, I might miss the boat by playing the volatility but I will still make money on the USD falling)

[TRIPxCORE]

Bht will be about the same or lower - def wont see a strong bht.

Once again I have to disagree with my good friend BritMav here. We have been in disagreement about this for about a year now and thus far he has been correct (in the short term). Ah, but slowly and surely the tide is changing in my direction for the mid to long term. USD depreciates is the call.

Did not read any of the garbage on here about the Baht going down (vs USD). Thailand is in much better shape than the U.S and thus the Baht will appreciate against the U.S this year.

DISCLAIMER (I sold my gold position last week hoping to buy in again on a correction, I might miss the boat by playing the volatility but I will still make money on the USD falling)

Finally, someone who knows! Personally I do not have my money in THB but rather in JPY. With the Chinese finally broadening the range of the Yuan, most Asian currencies should follow suit and the Japanese economy is really turning around. The U.S. economy, well, is not doing so hot like people think it is. Listen to this:

The U.S. Jobs Jamboree was really a disappointment on Friday with regard to the number of jobs created in December... The forecast was for 200K, and the actual was 108K... But really, as I've asked over and over again through the years... Does it really matter how many jobs are created when we don't know what types of jobs they are? Instead, as many of you know, I prefer to look at the AVG Hourly Earnings and Hours worked, as an indication of inflation, and here things looked normal... What the "media" jumped all over was the announcement that the "unemployment rate" had "fallen" to 4.9%... We've been all through this before, the "unemployment rate" does NOT count people that are unemployed who's unemployment benefits have run out... According to the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) these people just fall off the books, they don't exist, etc. Sounds like a good way to figure your unemployment rate, eh? NOT!

Well... Anyway, the currencies all had a nice rally after the Jobs Jamboree numbers were printed, as the markets took the Jobs Jamboree outcome as an indication that there will be no further wage pressures and the Fed will end the rate hike cycle ahead of schedule... First of all, I think that a rally is great... But I just can't get my arms around placing bets on the outcome of the Jobs Jamboree... The books there are so cooked, and skewered... I wouldn't be surprised if the 108K figure isn't revised up quite a bit next month, then what?

The good news is that whether or not the Fed does stop early, doesn't matter at this point... The general thought in the marketplace is that the Fed is near the end, and that's all that matters... Bloomberg is reporting this morning that 44% of 50 traders, strategists and investors surveyed last Friday from Sydney to New York advised selling the dollar VS the euro... This 44% is up VS 28% the previous week... The numbers for selling the dollar VS the yen fall in the same general range.

Well... Japanese yen is really beginning to get some legs underneath it as it rebounds VS the dollar... This morning, yen is attempting to trade below the 114 handle for the first time in 3 months, a 2.9% gain just last week... And the good news is that Japanese Finance Minister, Tanigaki, has been quoted as saying that he's comfortable with the move, and that it is in line with fundamentals... You bet it is Mr. Fin Min! We've got a long way to go still, to get yen where I believe it should be trading, and that is less than 100... For new readers, or anyone new to currency pricing... There are two pricing conventions in currencies... There's the American Style. Oh, wait, American Style pricing is priced like dollars, and the higher the number the greater return in dollars to the investors... Then there's European Style, which is the mirror image of American Style... Here you are counting how many of the foreign unit you get for a dollar, so... As the currency price goes down, it returns more value to you in dollars... Hope that's a good explanation for you...

George Soros is expecting a recession for the U.S. economy in 2007, based on his thoughts that the Fed will overshoot rate hikes, and thus cool the housing sector, which has been a major component to economic growth in the U.S. You know... This falls right in line with what I've been saying for over a year now...

[LaoPo]

[George Soros is expecting a recession for the U.S. economy in 2007, based on his thoughts that the Fed will overshoot rate hikes, and thus cool the housing sector, which has been a major component to economic growth in the U.S. You know... This falls right in line with what I've been saying for over a year now...[/color]

Read this:

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Tuesday January 10, 12:17 AM

Soros says global economy may slow in 2007 due to cooling US housing market

SINGAPORE: Billionaire investor George Soros says the global economy is likely to see a slowdown in 2007 due to a cooling in the US housing market.

Mr Soros, who is in Singapore for a visit, says he expects the US Federal Reserve to raise the Fed funds rate by another 50 basis points to 4.75 percent before it pauses on its rate hikes.

There is a growing imbalance in the global economy, with the US having a large and growing current account deficit.

But according to Mr Soros, that is not the real problem.

He says that's because Asian countries, especially China, are financing the deficit with their purchase of Treasury bills and bonds.

But what's of concern to him is the current US housing boom, with value of houses rising at double digits.

Mr Soros, the chairman of the Soros Fund Management, said: "I think the bubble has reached its maximum extent and in the process of being deflated.

"That will force consumers to consume less and the American consumption has been the main motor of global economy and is so big that at the moment, nothing can take its place.

"That's why I expect, in 2007, there is going to be a global slowdown, the extent of which cannot be predicted."

Mr Soros believes the US Federal Reserve will try to engineer a soft landing for its economy.

But that will mean the Fed has to "overshoot" in the tightening of monetary policy.

Mr Soros said: "You have to overshoot because only when you have overshot, will you know that you have done enough. I think they are very sensitive to that and they will try to keep the overshooting as narrow as possible."

Mr Soros expects the Fed funds rate to peak at 4.75 percent, 50 basis points higher than where it currently is.

But he warns that if the housing market continues to cool even after the Fed pauses, then the US economy may potentially face a hard landing instead of a soft one.

That's the reason he is expecting a recession to happen in 2007.

Mr Soros says the reason why the global economy didn't slow down despite rising energy prices is because of the US housing boom, which has outweighed the negative impact of rising oil prices.

Going forward, he says he can't predict the direction of oil prices but expects to see a tight market continuing in 2006.

Even though the European economy has been doing well, Mr Soros doesn't think it has the potential to counterbalance a possible hard landing in the US.

He says the hard landing will probably be associated with a decline in the US dollar, which will then hurt European economies.

source: Yahoo News

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Note: there is also a EU housing boom in many countries, already for many years now; people accept(ed) and pay/paid prices way out of order and common sense.

Whatever other people say and think about house/villa-prices in Thailand.....they are way TOO HIGH too!

Time will tell

LaoPo

[expatinasia]

"That's why I expect, in 2007, there is going to be a global slowdown, the extent of which cannot be predicted."

George thought that Gore would be Bush handily, and provided several tens of million of dollars to Gore. Opps! At least George said something intelligent - an inability to predict the economy in two years. Looking at how the TV posters are switching sides faster than a spinning weather vane, I'd have to extend the local ability to predict the US (or Thai economy) to one year. Or 6 months. Or a week, when several posters were crowing that the USD to THB would be in the mid-40's. Now, it's a scramble to see how low the USD will go. The DJI has reached a 5 year high, and several of the posters now predict the collapse of the US economy. What a hoot!