Tsunami Warning System

[chuchok]

What are our thoughts? Should a system been in place already. I read on one web site, that to set up a system would be approx US$10 mill and would take a year.

Do we blame somebody? If so who? The Thai,Indo or the Indian governments etc...

Edited December 27, 2004 by chuchok

[lukamar]

Do we blame somebody?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The simple answer is "NO". Although it's easy to want to lay blame.

We have to remember that even if a warning system was in place like in the Pacific some of the countries effected would not have it high on the priority list of things that their countries need. The cost is not the initial setup but the cost of monitoring and then disseminating the information from it.

If we use Thailand as an example the wave hit approximately 30 minutes after the quake. With resort areas drawing hundreds of tourists from all over the world how would you report the imminent danger to them, in maybe 10 major languages. On TV or radio or with sirens? The cost of sirens would be incredible. And most Tourist's don't watch Thai TV continuously. It's a lot bigger project and more costly than it first appears.

If this is a once in a lifetime disaster ... is the cost even worth it to some of these countries? I think most of the developing countries would find better sanitation, health care and electricity a much higher priority than Tsunami warning systems.

[bmanly]

There is a team of seismologists based in Hawaii and they knew there were going to be tsunamis but they did not know who to tell. This was reported on Australian TV. It is a ###### disgrace that they knew but failed to get the message out. How hard would it have been to phone up the Thai Government and get a warning out at Phuket?

[mandl]

How hard would it have been to phone up the Thai Government and get a warning out at Phuket?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Phone up the Thai government? On a Sunday?

Not until lines of communication are established with specific agencies to be notified and contact information. (e.g., emergency centers and that sort of thing that are manned 24/7). Without having that information available for every country that could be affected, there's no one to call.

[lukamar]

How hard would it have been to phone up the Thai Government and get a warning out at Phuket?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It would have been easier to call CNN ( I know lots don't like the service ) but it is one of the Satelite stations available to Thailand and other Asian countries.

Sri Lanka, India and Somalia did have an early warning system, in a sence, the wave hit Thailand some hours before but no one noticed or got the news out to their citizens.

[GuestHouse]

Warning against what?!

Tsunami are very rare events, areas of the world with the highest incidence are subjected to one event in hundreds of years other parts of the globe are threatened on a time scale that runs into hundreds of thousands of years.

So what have we, a system set up to watch and warn of something that might happen in the next 'x' years.

As for the seismologist on Hawaii being able to predict a tsunami resulting from the earth quake - Yes they would be able too, Earth Quakes are one of the two reasons why Tsunami occur, the other is a combination of tides and winds.

But let's asume they could get the message out, how long before it got to the people who need to hear the warning and how long for them to react?

The problem is not simply getting the warning out - A warning could almost be imediate, but what would it mean to the people who hear it. Locals might be trained to understand the meaning of an alarm, but what about visitors? Reports in the news inidate people who heard others screaming and running thought it was another Bali Bombing, there instinct was to hide - Not run up a hill side.

Terrible as this event is, it has had such devastating results, not because people were not prepared for it, but because of when and where it happened and because of the fragility of coastal life - Modern coastal recreationb has added to the numbers.

I doubt very much if sirens and warning would help at all, they might very well have dragged people out onto the streets where they would be more vulnerable.

Precisley like the first 'Bang' of the Bali Bombs.

[TizMe]

The government would be better spending the money on prevention of the thousands of road deaths that occur EVERY year than trying to prevent a thousand deaths that may not recur for another 100 years.

[jasonc]

The simple answer is "YES"

Certainly the Thai government is not to blame for the disaster nor the deaths yet some forethought and action could easily have saved many lives. All the conditions were present for a scientific wild ass guess that there would be tsunamis. The USGS based in Golden, Colorado's School of Mines had information about the first quake on their web site within 20 minutes. Before the land waves reached Bangkok. I pulled up the site minutes after my building stopped swaying. My point is that Thailand had plenty of time to warn. The tsunamis hit the beaches hours after the initial quake, not 30 minutes!

Why should they create a warning system? Thailand IS part of the ring of fire. The economy depends on the tourists perception of safety and value. A simple $10M investment is one day of revenue for that region. It will take years to rebuild the infrastructure but people's fears and distrust may hurt the economy for much longer.

If we use Thailand as an example the wave hit approximately 30 minutes after the quake. With resort areas drawing hundreds of tourists from all over the world how would you report the imminent danger to them, in maybe 10 major languages. On TV or radio or with sirens? The cost of sirens would be incredible. And most Tourist's don't watch Thai TV continuously. It's a lot bigger project and more costly than it first appears.

If language was the hinderance at the resorts then businesses couldn't prosper. The common language spoken at all establishments is ENGLISH. Warning systems can be in English and Thai and that will be sufficient. The system would comprise of signs on the beaches and warning speakers or a siren. Simple education is all that is needed. We are NOT suggesting visitors watch Thai TV on the beach..

If this is a once in a lifetime disaster ... is the cost even worth it to some of these countries?

The whole point of an Earthquake is that they are completely unpredictable. Therefore no one can say it's once in a lifetime. The aftershocks over the next few weeks are big enough to produce more of the same. It is also impossible to assess a cost to the 866 humans who lost their life. We will know from an economic standpoint in a year. Will people still visit?

Tsunami's are very rare events, impossible to accurately predict however the residents of Phuket will obey and forgive countless false warnings in exchange for a warning on a real occurrence.

[Insight]

The government would be better spending the money on prevention of the thousands of road deaths that occur EVERY year than trying to prevent a thousand deaths that may not recur for another 100 years.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It'd wouldn't just be the Thai government though - it'd be a venture by several countries who would now probably be more than willing to chip in for such a system.

Don't know where all the figures for cost are coming from. From what I can imagine, it'd be a single, reliable round-the-clock point of contact for each country should be enough, with that person then alerting the authorities to let them know there's a possible disaster on the way...

Apparently seismologists in the US knew this was about to go off after the quake, yet didn't have that valuable point-of-contact to alert...

[chuchok]

Warning rejected to protect tourism

Published on December 28, 2004

Minutes after the earthquake hit northern Sumatra at 7.58am on Sunday, officials of the Meteo-rological Department, who were at a seminar in Cha-am, convened an emergency meeting chaired by Supharerk Tansrirat-tanawong, director-general.

They had just learned that the Bangkok office had reported a quake measuring at 8.1 on the Richter scale, which was much lower than the

level officially recorded later.

“We didn’t think there would be subsequent seismic waves, because a similar quake of 7.6 on the Richter scale, which hit Sumatra on November 2, 2002, did not affect Thailand,” said a member of the department who asked not to be named.

Moreover, the quake this time hit west of Sumatra and officials thought the island might offer a natural shelter, preventing any waves from breaking towards Phuket and its vicinity, he said.

With slightly less than one hour before the waves came ashore, Supharerk said, the department officials did not expect a tsunami. There are just four people on the department’s 900-person staff who are earthquake experts, he said. Also, a tsunami had not hit Thailand in more than 300 years.

But sources said they did discuss the likelihood that a tsunami could hit Thailand’s Andaman Sea coastal towns. This was also played down.

“The very important factor in making the decision was that it’s high [tourist] season and hotel rooms were nearly 100-per-cent full. If we issued a warning, which would have led to evacuation, [and if nothing happened], what would happen then? Business would be instantaneously affected. It would be beyond the Meteorological Department’s ability to handle. We could go under, if [the tsunami] didn’t come,” said a source who attended the meeting.

“We hesitated for a while whether we should issue a warning or not. It was discussed but we didn’t have a chance to do it.”

Supharerk denied that tourism factored into the discussion at the 11th hour. “I think we have done our best,” he said.

Precisely at 9am that Sunday, waves as high as 3 to 10 metres hit the main southern coastal provinces of Phuket, Phang Nga, Krabi and Ranong.

Pravit Rojanaphruk

The Nation

[scratt]

This 10M$ figure is just noonsense!

This is a symptom of the bureaucratic world we suffer today.

The system needs to be a few agencies agreeing to keep in touch and have an emergency line of cummunication 24/7.

As has already been said. It is very simple to know when these Tsunamis are going to come.

Vertical movement on a large fault line at the bottom of the Sea..

As has also already been pointed out there were people in Hawaii with 'noone to call'.

I am not sure how the reaction would have been on the beach areas at the announcement of impending doom, or if anybody would have listened. Perhaps this is why the warnings did not get out... Panic can cause as many deaths as the actual problem itself...

But $10M just sounds like some scientists getting some toys and some government officials pocketing some more money...

Phones, people, common sense do not cost that kind of money! duh!

[The_Eye_Of_Sauron]

“The very important factor in making the decision was that it’s high [tourist] season and hotel rooms were nearly 100-per-cent full. If we issued a warning, which would have led to evacuation, [and if nothing happened], what would happen then?"

This is a revealing quote.

To speculate on his rhetorical question, ............I daresay that everyone would have gone to a safe place......possibly missed their 11.00 am coffee and biscuits and gone back in the afternoon. (Doesn't seem so bad does it - compared to the alternative).

[Ajarn]

When was the last Tsunami here in Thailand? 600 years ago or so??

Even in Japan, when they have tidal wave warnings, tons of people flock to beaches to watch- and this can be witnessed on tv during most any program on 'videos of the world's stupidest people' or something of that sort, watching scores of them getting washed away....

Of course they should set up a warning system now, but placing blame for such a freak tragedy is really pointless, in my view.

Edited December 28, 2004 by Ajarn

[The_Eye_Of_Sauron]

God and Mother Nature are to 'blame' but this man Supharerk Tansrirat-Tanawong will have to bear responsibility for his decision.

Its about responsibility, not blame.

[jasonc]

Many of you are correct. Trying to point blame is positively incredulous. The same people who search for blame in every situation are the same people who are quick to pose unwarranted lawsuits in thwart of self blame or mother nature.

But, wouldn't it be nice for the defending Thai government to be able to say they were on top of this and did everything they could have to prevent these deaths. Perhaps the warnings would go unnoticed. Maybe it would have killed as many people, maybe a different kind of person like the ones who would rush to the beach to watch.

I am not saying the Thai government should be held responsible for every death that occurred. I just think that a warning with at least 5-10 minutes of time with a siren and a flashing light on a sign about tsunamis . Maybe even an announcement that the biggest quake of 40 years occurred 1 hour ago and possible waves MIGHT be expected. My guess is most intelligent people would have collected their belongings and walked away. Maybe one block, maybe 2, maybe to safety. Anything would have helped.

[chuchok]

Many of you are correct. Trying to point blame is positively incredulous. The same people who search for blame in every situation are the same people who are quick to pose unwarranted lawsuits in thwart of self blame or mother nature.

But, wouldn't it be nice for the defending Thai government to be able to say they were on top of this and did everything they could have to prevent these deaths. Perhaps the warnings would go unnoticed. Maybe it would have killed as many people, maybe a different kind of person like the ones who would rush to the beach to watch.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I tend to agree.I have no doubt that after a few false warnings the "mai pen rai" attitude would be very prevalent here. Ajarn mentioned on a previous thread, that at one time many people in the USA went down to have a look , after a warning.

[kasi]

I really don't the think the reactionary knee jerk find someone to blame attitude it appropriate here.

THIS IS A VERY RARE EVENT!

research it!.

If your first inclination is to blame someone then I think you are .....

Offensive remark removed

Edited December 28, 2004 by Darknight

[chuchok]

I really don't the think the reactionary knee jerk find someone to blame attitude it appropriate here.

THIS IS A VERY RARE EVENT!

research it!.

If your first inclination is to blame someone then I think you are the arse hole! so fock you.

BTW moderators do not edit my post.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Kasi,

The thread was started to get comments out of the main news thread.

best you do some research before you point blame. I do agree with you in main tho.

BTW, personal mesage me if you wish to abuse.

[The_Moog]

Agreed.

Ultimately those who had the information - and had to make the choice to disseminate it or not - may well in fairness be exonerated, though we now know they made the wrong call.

It was a very tough task for them - but that's what they got paid to do.

Shrieking that the matter is not to be discussed reeks of Board Totalitarianism.

I know people who are probably at the bottom of the ocean today. Something needs to be learned from this disaster.

[davethailand]

I really don't the think the reactionary knee jerk find someone to blame attitude it appropriate here.

THIS IS A VERY RARE EVENT!

research it!.

If your first inclination is to blame someone then I think you are the arse hole! so fock you.

BTW moderators do not edit my post.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Agreed, this is'nt time to blame or debate about whether there should of been one or not.It was an extremely rare event.

[ThaiLover1]

In a tidal wave emergency, all it would take is a phone call to the Chief of Police in Phuket - or the officer in charge - about the incoming tidal wave. The police would clean out the Patpong bars in no time at all.

The police in Phuket are very efficient at closing down bars at 1 am, so why could they not clean out the bars and streets in day time?! I am sure a multi-channel broadcast on the Phuket police radio system would save a few lives. Sirens and expensive alarm system may not be as effective as the local police.

The problem is the Thailand government did not get notified on the incoming disaster - although I feel sorry for the geologists that knew but did not call anyone. Read this article from Nation for more information:

Warning rejected to protect tourism

The fact that a tidal wave is a rare event is no excuse. We have had tidal waves warnings systems in the USA for years. Also, when the Word Trade building in New York was attacked we did not say it is such a rare event that we do not need to do anything. Lets find a better excuse for not building alert systems for tidal waves.

After the death of the King's grandson in Phuket - the most VIP family in Thailand with bodyguards and radio-phones, I know the Thailand government did not know the incoming disaster.

It is all very sad, and I feel for the people and the royal family.

Edited December 28, 2004 by ThaiLover1

[phuketrichard]

Hey; it hit later than 9 am more lile 9:45 1 hour and 45 minutes after the quake.

How to warn the tourist?? easy I hear constant noise here in Kamala calling me to prayer 4 times/day. How hard to have someone say in english GET AWAY from the beach waves coming???

Plus the turcks that drive around annocncing the latest movie/thai boxing event.

If they knew they should have tried>>>

2 years ago they were worng and got sdome egg on their face this time they decided not to alarm anyone and got 2,000 people dead.

Which is better.. to be wrong and laughed at or right and be thanked??

In fact all would it take his for 5 thais to go to the beach and yell and scream and tun away and everyone would ask whats up and possible follow.

Here in Phuket, after the first wave people actaully went BACK to the beach!! plus the thais hit the shops for freebies.

When the water recedded in Lam sign many went out to look at the fish floping on the sand and then...

EDUCATION. when waters suddenly go out RUN!!!

[ronz28]

It doesn't take two cents for a warning system. It takes current government oceanographers, other scientists, military or broadcasteres in many countries paid to watch seismographs who see a 9.0 earthquake to immediately call CNN, BBC and other broadcasters in the area to beg them if necessary to warn coastal areas that a tidal wave may be coming and to get away from the beaches. Don't throw millions of dollars at those that had the knowledge and didn't act on it to warn those that didn't know. I believe we should hold those that knew but didn't warn others accountable. I heard an oceanographer on PBS yesterday say that Oceanographers knew a Tsunami was likely but no one asked him.

Edited December 28, 2004 by ronz28

[kat]

There is a team of seismologists based in Hawaii and they knew there were going to be tsunamis but they did not know who to tell. This was reported on Australian TV. It is a ###### disgrace that they knew but failed to get the message out. How hard would it have been to phone up the Thai Government and get a warning out at Phuket?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Please read the ###### newspapers, before you start another blind rant about how this is all America's fault:

"Warnings too little, too late" The Nation, December 28th:

"Said Charles McCreery, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's centre in Honolulu: 'It took an hour and a half for the wave to get from the earthquake to Sri Lanka and an hour for it to get ... to the west coast of Thailand and Malaysia. You can walk inland for 15 minutes to get to a safe area ...

US officials who detected the earthquake tried frantically to warn the wall of water was coming ... Within moments of detecting the quake, Mcreery and his staff were on the phone to Australia ... They were unable to reach the thousands in the countries most severely affected - because none had a tsunami-warning mechanism or tidal gauges to alert people, he said."

Please read the other article entitled "Warnings rejected to protect tourism" as well as the editorial of today's Nation, you moron.

another quote:

I tend to agree.I have no doubt that after a few false warnings the "mai pen rai" attitude would be very prevalent here. Ajarn mentioned on a previous thread, that at one time many people in the USA went down to have a look , after a warning.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Let me see, Ajarn makes one subjective comment about how Americans behave during a tsunami, and it is now used as some kind of factual standard? Well, I was born in the S.E. Bronx, very far away from tsunamis, and I bloody-well know to run if I see a sudden and immediate recession of the tide. Oh dear, what does that do to your reasoning now?

I really don't the think the reactionary knee jerk find someone to blame attitude it appropriate here.

THIS IS A VERY RARE EVENT!

research it!.

If your first inclination is to blame someone then I think you are .....

Offensive remark removed

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If you don't like discussion, then don't join the thread.

I understand and can sympathize with sensitivities right now, but I have to agree with another poster that made the comment about board totalitarinaism. If we are only allowed one kind of discussion, then perhaps the whole rest of the forum should be shut down and we should close all bars and recreational venues (according to that rationale).

Edited December 28, 2004 by kat

[ThaiLover1]

Animation of Indonesia tsunami (Credit: NOAA)

It shows the tsunami waves coming from a stretch of islands - not behind and West of Sumatra, as originally assumed.

from 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake

[chuchok]

There is a team of seismologists based in Hawaii and they knew there were going to be tsunamis but they did not know who to tell. This was reported on Australian TV. It is a ###### disgrace that they knew but failed to get the message out. How hard would it have been to phone up the Thai Government and get a warning out at Phuket?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Please read the ###### newspapers, before you start another blind rant about how this is all America's fault:

"Warnings too little, too late" The Nation, December 28th:

"Said Charles McCreery, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's centre in Honolulu: 'It took an hour and a half for the wave to get from the earthquake to Sri Lanka and an hour for it to get ... to the west coast of Thailand and Malaysia. You can walk inland for 15 minutes to get to a safe area ...

US officials who detected the earthquake tried frantically to warn the wall of water was coming ... Within moments of detecting the quake, Mcreery and his staff were on the phone to Australia ... They were unable to reach the thousands in the countries most severely affected - because none had a tsunami-warning mechanism or tidal gauges to alert people, he said."

Please read the other article entitled "Warnings rejected to protect tourism" as well as the editorial of today's Nation, you moron.

another quote:

I tend to agree.I have no doubt that after a few false warnings the "mai pen rai" attitude would be very prevalent here. Ajarn mentioned on a previous thread, that at one time many people in the USA went down to have a look , after a warning.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Let me see, Ajarn makes one subjective comment about how Americans behave during a tsunami, and it is now used as some kind of factual standard? Well, I was born in the S.E. Bronx, very far away from tsunamis, and I bloody-well know to run if I see a sudden and immediate recession of the tide. Oh dear, what does that do to your reasoning now?

I really don't the think the reactionary knee jerk find someone to blame attitude it appropriate here.

THIS IS A VERY RARE EVENT!

research it!.

If your first inclination is to blame someone then I think you are .....

Offensive remark removed

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If you don't like discussion, then don't join the thread.

I understand and can sympathize with sensitivities right now, but I have to agree with another poster that made the comment about board totalitarinaism. If we are only allowed one kind of discussion, then perhaps the whole rest of the forum should be shut down and we should close all bars and recreational venues (according to that rationale).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Kat, the reason why people were given a hard time, was because there was only one or two threads and people wanted real time information about the disaster etc and not on who was too blame. Now we can pick and choose.I for one wanted this so I started this thread.

As for Ajarns comments, while you may not have run, many people did flock to the beaches to have a look(They were from CAL after all!!). The same thing has happened in Hawaii.

/fixed quotes

Edited December 28, 2004 by Darknight

[kat]

There are all kinds of people in Cali, including those that would go to watch a tsunami come in. But the difference is - they know; and therefore know when to run.

Of course, there are idiots or fanatics - word choice is subjective - in Oahu, Hawaii that would grab a surfboard at the sign of a tsunami, but surely these types exist wherever there is ocean.

[gburns57au]

How did the Hawaii agency know a tsunami was coming ???...there was no monitoring systems in place....they had a suspicion only, based on the quakes strength....I am sure that they would have contact numbers for other quake agencies in the world...

But .....not laying blame anywhere....This situation is of a magnitude far greater than has ever been heard of...or imagined.....Could anyone have known or even suspected that so many places would be affected so tragically. The effects of this earthquake and resulting waves has been dectected across the globe....There has been 6 quakes in the last week of over 5.0 magnitude...3 of them over 7.0....and 4 of them in the same area. I am not sure but this could be unusual in itself.

[chuchok]

How did the Hawaii agency know a tsunami was coming ???...there was no monitoring systems in place....they had a suspicion only, based on the quakes strength....I am sure that they would have contact numbers for other quake agencies in the world...

But .....not laying blame anywhere....This situation is of a magnitude far greater than has ever been heard of...or imagined.....Could anyone have known or even suspected that so many places would be affected so tragically. The effects of this earthquake and resulting waves has been dectected across the globe....There has been 6 quakes in the last week of over 5.0 magnitude...3 of them over 7.0....and 4 of them in the same area. I am not sure but this could be unusual in itself.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hawaii does have an Earthquake/Tsunami monitoring agency and has for quite a few years. Same thing happened to them as happened here, except not to the same extent. I can't remember the dates, but think it was around 10-15 years ago.

[Darknight]

UN: Warning Systems Vital to Slash Disaster Tolls

By Robert Evans

GENEVA (Reuters) - Governments around the world must work together to build early warning systems that can cut death tolls from natural disasters like the Indian Ocean tsunami that killed nearly 40,000, United Nations experts said on Tuesday.

And investment in broad education programs is also vital so that ordinary people -- especially in coastal areas where catastrophe often hits hardest -- know what to do when alerted that calamity is on the way, they warn.

"The international community has to move ahead and build global systems to avoid a repeat of what has happened in Asia this week," Reid Basher of the U.N.'s Platform for the Promotion of Early Warning (PPEW) in Bonn told Reuters.

He said that would now be a key topic at a long-planned World Conference on Disaster Reduction on January 18-22 in Kobe, Japan site of a massive earthquake in January 1995 which killed more than 6,400 people.

Latest official figures put deaths at 38,957, and climbing, in the tidal waves that hit up to a dozen countries and island states around the Indian Ocean and east Africa after an undersea earthquake off Indonesia on Sunday.

The tsunami killed poor local fishermen and their families in coastal communities as well as hundreds, perhaps thousands, of foreign tourists underlining to global aspect of the tragedy.

"The catastrophe will certainly concentrate minds in Kobe on what needs to be done now," said John Harding, an oceanographer and tsunami specialist with the U.N.'s disaster reduction agency ISDR in Geneva.

"Effective information programs and communications networks, like that in place in the Pacific region, can save many thousands of lives in these situations."

QUANTUM LEAP IN COMMITMENT

The conference "is expected to prompt a quantum leap in learning and commitment for improving prevention, risk assessment and early warning systems," a statement from the ISDR secretariat in Geneva said.

U.N. officials say that where funds are short, richer countries must be more ready to help out the poorer to develop such systems even against what may appear to be regional low-risk catastrophes like the Indian Ocean tsunami.

"Money comes in rapidly when disasters happen. It needs to be there beforehand," said one relief coordinator in Geneva who asked to remain anonymous.

International radio stations say they have been bombarded with messages complaining that countries around the region had no system in place to warn that the tsunami was on the way.

But Basher and Harding said such recriminations were unfair. "It is easy to be wise after the event, but we must remember that the Indian Ocean has not had a major tsunami for over a century," said Basher, in a telephone interview.

"It is not entirely surprising that the governments there had no warning system in place. They had many other priorities."

In the Pacific, where undersea quakes and the tidal surges they cause are common, a wide-ranging program has been developed over four decades with rapid alerts on tsunamis and long-term public information about them.

Schoolchildren are taught to clear beaches when one is on the way and head inland quickly. Local media educate older people and foreign tourists arriving in hotels are given instructions on how to react, Harding said.