beautifulthailand99

It wasn't a video game in the end or a existential battle against good or evil but the first war fought endlessly and cheered on social media by virtue signallers thousands of miles away but with no skin in the game pouring petrol onto a conflagration that has destroyed a country.There are no winners here just millions dead and injured and what when all is said and done will probably be anoyher failed state where the west walks away with a shrug of its shoulders. But we stuck it into the Orcs in Morder - that felt good. That and thinking Zelenskiy was the hero we always felt we needed but never had. Two songs about Bahkmut one a rousing patriotic Ukarainian anthem the other from a Russian soldier in the ruins. The sooner this bloody war stops once and for all the better. No ifs or buts.

Why don't you post under your real username I and I'm sure most others know who you really are. BYE !

WHY ? If you add up all major costs to Western countries from the Russia–Ukraine war — direct aid, refugee support, energy shocks, defence spending increases, and trade disruptions — you get a broad range rather than a single number. Direct military + financial aid is now about $250–330bn. Refugee costs for EU/Western hosts run anywhere from $30bn to ~ $170bn, depending on how you count multi-year support. The energy price spike + inflation hit added roughly $100–350bn in extra costs across Europe and other Western economies. Higher defence spending since 2022 adds another $50–200bn so far. Sanctions and lost trade account for something like $20–150bn depending on method. Put together, the conservative “already spent” total comes to about $500–800bn. If you add future reconstruction commitments (Ukraine’s total need is estimated at ~$500bn, a big share likely falling on Western donors), plus ongoing higher defence budgets, the long-run cost easily reaches $1 trillion+. So depending on scope, the war has cost Western supporters somewhere between half a trillion and well over a trillion dollars — the lower end being actual expenditures to date, the upper end including long-term obligations and broader economic impacts.

Actually Neville Chamberlain knew that the west had to buy time to rearm. So the analogy falls. Good luck with persuading western electorates who are tapped out with debt,rising prices, lack of affordable housing , healtahcare and falling living values to appease some well off pensioners living in "democratic" 16 coups Thailand where there pensions go much further on the bloodied sweat of smiling Somchai and moral virtue can be tapped out on a keyboard far above the madding crowd. Putler is so 2023.

Who else are you here buddy ? I'm just me !

He pays me with bitcoin since the invasion which is in a cold wallet but has suggested that AN isn't a good ROI !

You forgot that Trump is in the White House.

Keep drinking the Kool-Aid if you like, but Russia isn't ever coming back to the Western fold, and China is perfectly content with that arrangement. They'll get along well enough, and Modi can play both horses just as Thailand does.We're entering an age where authoritarianism is the dominant political force in global affairs - where brute power and alignment of shared interests count for far more than "freedom" or the so-called liberal international rules-based order. And Ukraine? Ukraine arrived late to the party, just when it's nearly over and the bar has been drunk dry. The EU itself, after Brexit and the rise of 'populism,' is on the wane - hardly in a position to underwrite grand strategic commitments when its own model is fracturing from within. In truth, we're reverting to the historical norm. The 20th century Western democratic model is reaching its terminal stage, where the demands of voters far outstrip the state's ability to provide. And we know how that story ends - democracy collapses into darkness, as it did in Weimar Germany. The post-war liberal consensus was an aberration, not the natural order. My father's generation understood great power politics and the necessity of restraint. We've forgotten those lessons, and now we're paying the price - pretending that our values are universal while the rest of the world organizes itself around older, harder principles of power and interest. We poked the bear and forced the marriage of the worlds largest country in size of population and manufacturing now much high end , with the world largest country in terms of size and mineral wealth. You don't need a crystal ball to see how that ends.

"We" backed the head choppers who ended up blowing the Twin Towers and destroying Iraq and for what and some here think they occupy the high ground.

That is true - now try and compute that what is the ROI on the FSB courting/compronmising Trump over decades ? Off the scale whilst we both broke Middle East states basically over oil and Israel and spent trillions dealing with the blow back from head choppers with pick up trucks. They're eating the cats and the dogs. How do empires die - firstly slowly and then all at once. Every dog has it's day until it's eaten !

This is what some people beleive here.

I turned this thread into a Leonard Cohen song via Claude and Suno 4.5. https://suno.com/song/0b106686-d633-4a89-84a9-1ddcff9e1765

If Z accepts it he's a dead man walking if he doesn't pretty much the same. Time to take that ride. Is this the General's moment coming ? It could be. Perhaps it goes something like this: Zelensky agrees, peace hopes hit all time high, everything looks swell. There's ambiguity on the Russian side, but it appears they're playing ball through the media lens and that's all that matters. Then, trouble afoot. The nationalists start causing trouble. A gunfight ensues outside the RADA and it appears there's a coup unfolding, and in the chaos, a figure emerges... And the first chapter ends. Fade to black.

Ukraine needs fighting males to defend their country - if they won't do it why should we with our economies and treasure. I don't blame them btw I would but we're full up in the UK - it's low hanging fruit for Europe and it what Zelensiy wants.

Oh and that Yermak that they major on in that report ....

There are 850k male Ukrainian males refugees in Europe of army age - time to send them home.

I asked Claude about the combined effect of US intelligence along with Musk cutting off Starlink would make; They'd be crippled, not finished. We actually have a test case—the US did pause intelligence sharing in March 2025 (it was later restored, but the damage was illustrative). What Ukraine lost immediately: Early warning of Russian bomber takeoffs and missile launches, detected via US satellite surveillance and signals intercepts of Russian Defence Ministry communications—often before the planes even leave the ground. Without US targeting data, HIMARS and ATACMS were effectively neutered—Ukraine couldn't operate them for offensive strikes. US intelligence had provided real-time satellite data and electronic surveillance of Russian troop movements, allowing Ukrainian units to reposition rapidly and strike where the enemy is weakest—cutting this off meant "blinding Ukrainian commanders, forcing them to operate in the dark". The US has satellite-based infrared early-warning systems for missile launches that only the US and Russia possess—Europe has nothing comparable. US computing advantages in deploying AI and big data on intelligence questions are also unmatched, meaning Ukraine would receive "less real-time intelligence and possibly lower quality intelligence assessments". What they'd revert to: Old-school methods now "largely obsolete": movement to contact (locating enemies by getting them to shoot at you), reconnaissance by force, hasty attacks—the pre-satellite era of warfare. European alternatives exist—Finnish ICEYE satellites, French CSO-3 imagery, German and Italian radar systems, Japanese support—but these are commercial/smaller-scale solutions. As one French general put it, French intelligence "covers almost the entire spectrum of US intelligence, albeit with significantly smaller volumes and more modest resources". The combined effect: No Starlink = degraded drone coordination, artillery targeting, command and control. No US intelligence = blind to Russian movements, no early warning of missile strikes, can't effectively use precision weapons, forced back to 20th-century warfare methods. When the pause happened, Russia became bolder and advanced more—the very public reduction in American support gave Moscow greater motivation to push forward. They'd still fight. But as one Ukrainian parliamentarian put it, without "vital" US intelligence, Ukrainian troops and civilians are "under greater danger". Your broader point crystallizes: Ukraine's entire modern war-fighting capability—the precision, the agility, the David-versus-Goliath effectiveness—rests on infrastructure controlled by Washington and a South African billionaire who posts inflammatory <deleted>e on social media. Strategic dependency doesn't get much more precarious.

According to the excellenmt Kyiv Independent - Zelenskiy has to get rid of his whole inner circle - the war cabinet and maybe even himself such is the whiff of corruption about the whole thing. Rumours circulate that Trump / CIA helped with some of the details to hlep the story grow wings. That Trump is effectively a Russian assett is basically a given at this point. We are nearly at the point of the fall of South Vietnam now, choppers on the roof. Zelenskiy does have the cards but is a house of cards and it's collapsing. https://archive.ph/DX2ku Daniel Hannan - Trump is behaving precisely as he would if he were a Russian asset - This ‘peace plan’ is not only a tragedy for Ukraine, but an immediate crisis for Britain We are back to where we feared we would be when Donald Trump won the 2024 election. Any pretence at even-handedness has gone. All that talk about “very severe consequences” if Putin did not agree to a ceasefire at the Alaska summit has been shown to be nonsense. As I have mournfully written before, I don’t believe the claims that Putin has kompromat on Trump; but the tragic truth is that, kompromat or no kompromat, Trump is behaving precisely as he would if he were a Russian asset.

I don't doubt the goodness in many of your hearts, nor your fervent desire to see Ukraine win this existential battle for its survival. But believing the world is fair, or that good always triumphs over evil—these are the stuff of children's fairy tales, along with economic supremacy being the dominant theme of the late 20th century. Nazism defeated. Pax Americana reaching across continents, rebuilding Western Europe, attempting to impose democracy in Southeast Asia millions dead. The Twin Towers. Trillions spent fighting futile wars against stone-age foes in far-off lands, at the cost of trillions more. And then, the West financializing its productive economies with complex Ponzi schemes (your pensions, basically). But underlying all this, a sense of: we are the good guys, we will win, it's inevitable. And they all lived happily ever after. But we are not children now. The world is a complex, dangerous place. Western societies are hollowed out by debt and entitlement, by drugs and crime and ill-health from eating crap, by wokeness and anxiety. And here we are. Ukraine was a chance to show the world that the US, along with NATO and Europe, still mattered. But Putin let's be real here managed to get Trump, Brexit, and populist right-wing parties over the line: a massive return on whatever investment he and his FSB made. And of course, the inexorable rise of China, who makes and copies just about everything, whose rule holds as long as 70% are relatively happy. Now Trump has left the table, pretty much blown up NATO. Western populations are in turmoil, scared and seeking change that will never come because we're out of money and no leaders will tell the truth. Oh, and the final piece: Ukraine isn't the virginal maiden some believe it to be corrupt pretty much to its core, with a mixed population in the western oblasts who are basically pro-Russian, facing the world's largest country in size and mineral wealth, allied to China, and prepared to die in their hundreds of thousands for the motherland. It was ever thus. They were prepared to burn the whole of Moscow to prevent the French taking it. Twenty-seven million died in WWII. They take their paranoia seriously just ask any Israeli supporter who rides roughshod over international law. Here ends my sermon for the day. Emoticon away or don't up to you. I asked Claude to to a Philip Larkin versions of my piece ; The Forum They get what they deserve, or don't— It hardly matters which. Goodness means f&ck-all when the guns start up. Children believe in endings. We had our century: Nazis dead, Europe a grateful ruin we could own, Asia drowning in our good intentions, The Towers falling into dust and debt. Trillions burned in sand. Meanwhile, We sold our futures—pensions, all of it— Complex frauds we called finance, Told ourselves we were the righteous ones. Not children now. Just old. Our societies are corpses filled with pills And sh!t food and imaginary wounds. This is what we are. Ukraine was supposed to prove We still existed. Putin won— Got Trump, got Brexit, got it all For pocket change. China makes everything. We make nothing. It's done. NATO's gone. We're skint. Nobody Will say it. And Ukraine— Corrupt as anywhere, a good quarter of its people Would rather be Russian anyway— Faces that nuclear tundra, That country that burned Moscow flat And lost twenty-seven million dead Without flinching. Paranoia works. Ask Israel. I'll convince no one here. We're old men shouting at screens Because the silence is worse. Most have left: bored, banned, Dead, or ranting somewhere livelier. Here ends the sermon. Here ends most things.

Owen Matthews - Here’s why delusional Europe won’t keep Ukraine in the fight - The continent long ago surrendered the ability to play a role in great power politics - DAILY TELEGRAPH https://archive.ph/AVu4N#selection-4159.0-5280.0 As historian Niall Ferguson put it bluntly in a recent tweet, “if you want to take back territory and try Putin, you have to win the war … realistically, Ukraine has never been in a position to defeat Russia.” By the same token neither Europe nor the US have had any interest in fighting a direct war with Moscow. Europe’s politicians may lie to Ukraine and to themselves about their devotion to Kyiv’s cause, but the numbers tell a truer story.

It's early days in Russia's Big Brother internet but with China's help they will no doubt get there and it's always worth remembering that China will simply not allow Russia to fail albeit in a vassalage state as it's them next if that were ever to happen. When we overwinter in Thailand every year, we're struck by how good the 5G system is and how fast it performs nearly everywhere. Huawei has played a major role - an analyst estimated in 2022 that approximately 60% of Thailand's mobile networks still came from Huawei, despite operators trying to diversify to Ericsson and Nokia Asia Times. Th Yes, China is helping Russia build internet control capabilities, but the irony is that Russia's current disruptions exist precisely because it doesn't yet have China's sophisticated system. The collaboration is real: Since at least 2015, Russia's Roskomnadzor agency has collaborated with Chinese Great Firewall security officials in implementing its data retention and filtering infrastructure. In 2016, Vladimir Putin signed a joint communiqué with Xi Jinping on information space, followed by meetings with Fang Binxing, architect of the Chinese Great Firewall. In April 2025, Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui announced plans to significantly deepen cybersecurity cooperation with Russia, emphasizing their shared vision for a "multilateral, democratic, and transparent global internet governance system". A September 2025 leak of Great Firewall data revealed that China exports censorship mechanisms to various countries, showing technical details of how the CCP develops and shares its infrastructure of internet control. But Russia's system is primitive by comparison: Russian authorities acknowledge it's "too late" to introduce something similar to China's Great Firewall. The Chinese internet was built differently from the start with only a few traffic exchange hubs, making it easy to control. Russia has several hundred hubs, including ones unknown even to security services. By the end of 2024, Russia's system had been tested several times in "exercises" involving disconnection from the global internet, using Deep Packet Inspection technology. However, DPI is not employed at a national level anywhere else in the world, and Russia's attempts have been unsuccessful - they couldn't even block Telegram effectively for an entire year. Russia's 2025 disruptions are the awkward transition phase: China's surveillance system is sophisticated and extensive, whereas Russia's is still largely inconsistent and emerging. There was virtually no control of the Internet in Russia until 2012. The current mobile internet shutdowns represent Russia's crude approach while trying to achieve China's seamless filtering. Since September 2025, Russia has required its "Max" messaging app to be preinstalled on all mobile devices, embedding surveillance infrastructure into citizens' daily digital lives - mimicking China's WeChat model. So yes, China is helping - but Russia's disruptions happen precisely because they're still building toward China's model, not because they've achieved it. China can filter content while maintaining service; Russia currently has to shut things down entirely.

Hindsight is a cruel mistress... 2022 https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-neutral-status-russia-peace-agreement-volodymyr-zelenskyy/ In a separate interview with the Economist, Zelenskyy said that some of his “partners” are “using Ukraine as a shield,” explaining how he sees the differing viewpoints of Western allies toward the war, with two disparate main strands. On one hand, Zelenskyy said, there are those who “don’t mind a long war because it would mean exhausting Russia,” even “if this means the demise of Ukraine and comes at the cost of Ukrainian lives.” On the other hand, other countries want the war to finish quickly “because Russia’s market is a big one … [and] their economies are suffering as a result of the war,” Zelenskyy said.

The walls are closing in on Zelensky Ukraine faces a triple threat amid growing casualties, a corruption scandal and a peace plan that amounts to capitulation -DAILY TELEGRAPH https://archive.ph/gN0Cv#selection-4237.0-5088.1 Gennady Druzhenko reckons that of the 1,000-odd fellow military recruits in his training camp, he is the only one who is there willingly. The vast majority are conscripts, many of them old or unhealthy, press-ganged off the streets to plug the growing gaps in Ukraine’s front lines. His comrades’ morale could not get much worse, but in the wake of the corruption scandal last week engulfing Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, a new low has been reached. “Some of these guys are nearly 60 and it’s a tragedy that they’re being mobilised anyway,” Mr Druzhenko told The Telegraph