beautifulthailand99

Covid and a messianic sense of destiny got to him. He thought they would be welcomed in the home of the Kyivan Rus as liberators. How wrong he was. Nevertheless a post-colonial slavic civil war that the west should have left well alone. If you have a stronger and bigger psycopathic neighbour doff your cap whilst cursing under your breath.

T-90M and T-14 are the only tanks that have been produced from new recently with T-90M being the only one in 'mass' production.Though the T-14 has never been used in Ukraine to date. Although there was some talks of restarting production for T-80BVM.There's not any need tbh because Russia has thousands of T-72s and T-80s in storage, it's far easier to simply resurface and fix the shell then upgrade the electronics and add modern composite add one with ERA than building from new. So almost everything is refurb or made with scavenged parts. You probably need to add to that the feasability of tanks as an essential part of the inventory in the drone-era. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-90 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-14_Armata https://wiki.warthunder.com/T-80BVM

Apparently they have found ways round this. That and China has advanced in leaps and bounds and has no scruples about supplying anything for a price. https://theins.ru/en/society/274083 Electronics distribution experts explained to The Insider that the only point at which a sanctions violation can be intercepted is when a general or national distributor sells the goods — after that, no further control can be exercised by the manufacturing company. As long as major distributors take the buyers' word for it — i.e., so long as sellers fail to conduct in-person visits to verify that the circuits are installed in the declared equipment, such as a university computer for calculating Dedekind numbers — sanctions violations will persist. https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/How-China-s-ad-hoc-tech-pipeline-fuels-Russia-s-Ukraine-war-efforts The demand from Russia, Hank said, has been incredible. Cut off from Western suppliers, the country needed access to vital computer hardware. Hank was well set up to fill the gap, using the relationships and networks he had built up over years of working in China. Soon, Hank was making three times the margin in Russia that he was in his home market. "We had always had a steady flow of customers," Hank said. "For the first four or five months, our gross profit was higher than when we sold on Chinese platforms, so we were very motivated." Hank no longer sells on Ozon, he said, preferring to sell directly through distributors in Russia to save on commissions.

For data wonks that want a deep dive into the Russian MIC. Here's a newly released report ESD is a Mittler Report Verlag (MRV) publication, with history dating back to 1789. Since January 2015 ESD has evolved into a top-quality, global bimonthly print publication. Supplemented fortnightly by ESD Spotlight, the on-line Security and Defence newsletter, distribution tripled in 2015 and both ESD and ESD Spotlight continue to be the fastest-growing publications in the international Defence & Security field. https://euro-sd.com/2024/09/articles/40149/inside-russias-2024-military-industrial-complex/ It is worth noting is that the modern Russian MIC was built on the remnants of the Soviet military industry, which was designed to operate under pressure and produce huge volumes of equipment in a protracted conflict with NATO. While much of this was either unused, neglected or lost in the 1990s and early 2000s, the 2010s saw significant recapitalisation of this dormant potential. While output figures are in key sectors such as new-build tank production are still far below Soviet levels, nonetheless, this still leaves Russia with fairly high output for many key systems compared to many other countries. This relative advantage over Ukraine has most evidently been leveraged through Russia’s adoption of an attritional warfare strategy in Ukraine.

Nor can he in military terms lose when Ukraine runs out of manpower and weapons before Russia does. We are at a classic deadly stalemate but Russia probably having a narrow edge. https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html In short, both sides believe that their relative power, and thus ability to prevail, will improve over time. The centrality of Western assistance to Ukraine's war effort, and the uncertainty about the future of that assistance, has led Moscow and Kyiv to different conclusions about which of the two will gain the upper hand over time. The conflict is therefore not resolving the information problem in the way that the literature leads us to expect; both sides have grounds for optimism about the possibility of making gains by continuing to fight. Historically this kind of mutual optimism has made wars difficult to end.[49]

As long as he can keep the Silovik happy - estimated to be around 5 million then his security state will hold. Mynamar and DPRK are utter basket cases yet the leadership maintains their iron grip. The rest of Russia will muddle along with their dirt allotments and baked in mother Russia nationalism and misery. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silovik

Your link leads to one of those articles that I normally qoute sowing seeds of doubt in the mainstream narrative and he also likes Elon Musk. But thanks for the heads up and it shows I read everything and consider it.

Quite a piece of work - tldr we must get ready to fight China as they are far to successfull at keeping their heads down and making stuff (like the cheap tech we are writing this on ) and because US must always have an existential threat to keep the militray indistrial complex humming. Pax Americana - oops we just destroyed a country with the best intentions ! Besides which the China wars you mention are skirmishes and border disputes in their backyard whatever the rights and wrongs of them they are utterly dwarfed by US adventurism. I despair for humanity - the world is boiling yet bright minds want more weapons. Oh and the Korean War is historic irelevant when arguing about modern China.

https://archive.is/Jq8cP Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has triggered doubts among Russian elite, spy chiefs say Tucked away in this article is an interesting implied aside about prorities. The western view will be we need to get Ukraine "finished" not "as long as it takes". Despite the threat posed by Russia and the risk of conflagration in the Middle East, both Burns and Moore stressed that their biggest challenge was China’s rise. Burns said the funds that the CIA devoted to China had tripled over the past three years to 20 per cent of the agency’s budget, and that he had travelled twice to China over the past year for talks to “avoid unnecessary misunderstandings”. Moore described regular contact with his Chinese counterparts as “essential”.

I'm sorry I don't cheerlead for this war to continue and see it as binary good vs evil that started on 24th February 2022. But there we are, I make my own mind up , I am beholden to no-one or no source and read widely and comprehensively. Indeed I watch RT on average once a year since the invasion to see how ludicrous it is as a source of propaganda. If that makes me a Putin shill in the minds of some here so be it. I avoid baiting and name calling as well I should and if there is one lesson I have learned in my life ,so far if you must waste time on internet forums , don't get angry or annoyed - it's just random people you don't know hammering away on keyboards most probably because they have nothing better to do. War is the greatest evil: Russia was baited into this crime — but that's no excuse https://www.salon.com/2022/03/01/is-the-greatest-evil-was-baited-into-this--but-thats-no-excuse/ This provocation, which includes establishing a NATO missile base 100 miles from Russia's border, was foolish and highly irresponsible. It never made geopolitical sense. This does not, however, excuse the invasion of Ukraine. Yes, the Russians were baited. But they reacted by pulling the trigger. This is a crime. Their crime. Let us pray for a ceasefire. Let us work for a return to diplomacy and sanity, a moratorium on arms shipments to Ukraine and the withdrawal of Russian troops from the country. Let us hope for an end to war before we stumble into a nuclear holocaust that devours us all.

Absolutely true and bad for Ukraine and bad for Europe as well. And let's add the world, all wars are bad even the so called good ones. They are no glorious dead just dead and we as humans should sytrech every sinew to prevent them or bring them to an end. Irish TV allows a rare prime time debate beween two opposing voices.

If you can please keep posting I am very interested in your contributions which are more than welcome as we I'm afraid are just a tired battalion of armchair generals of various sorts. I follow the X account of a Ukarainian man who runs a charity and appears to have done good things to help the Ukrainian side. He has recently been called up and he looks terrified in recent posts. Wheras you seem to have conqured your fear of death which gets us all in the end. Keep safe.

You did ask and as I have a recently broken ankle and need to rest up I have time to do more research and respond in detail. So, in short most probably and these also provide baubies to his tame oligarchs who are denied acess to their western assetss that they loved so much. For those who don't understand what this is about. There are two mechanisms of protection against withdrawal of capital from the country by Western companies: The first is the mechanism of introducing temporary management of foreign assets in Russia, which allows companies registered in NATO countries to be transferred under the management of Rosimushchestvo (a state-owned company that manages Russian property). The owner in this case remains the same, but is deprived of the right to influence the company in any way. Also, if these companies want to sell them, the sale price is limited to 50% of the stock exchange value. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Agency_for_State_Property_Management The second decree on Economically Significant Companies (EZO), these are companies that are important for the security of the country, for example, large car manufacturers or large agricultural firms, if in the structure of their owners there are companies from NATO countries or offshore zones, the remaining shareholders can deprive them of their corporate rights through the court. https://denuo.legal/en/insights/news/240305/

Tit for tat is in full swing. Moscow takes control over assets of Western companies https://www.reuters.com/business/moscow-takes-control-over-assets-western-companies-2023-07-27/

One can only imagine what levels of suffering that would entail if it continues as a hot war. I suspect it will soon be a tacit ceasfire, a frozen conflict and a 10 year European rearnament policy and some 21st century Maginot line on the Europe/Russia border. What it won't be is NATO boots on the ground that has been made perfectly clear. And that assumes stability in Europe re populism and the state's ability to keep extensive welfare states and housing needs supported by declining budgets where defence spending won't be a vote winner.

The Spectator's redoubtable award winning Ukrainian journalist sheds some light on the "business as usual" extendive changes at the top. https://archive.is/9wqJv Inside Zelensky’s not-so-fresh reshuffle Zelensky’s government has been running on fumes after five years in power. It is desperate for fresh staff. But with elections forbidden by the Constitution during martial law, the President is left recycling the same names, moving them from the cabinet to the presidential office and back again. Parliament only comes into play when the President needs a vote. His inner circle, led by the influential Andriy Yermak, no longer bothers to share strategy with MPs, who are increasingly feeling sidelined. Martial law has handed Zelensky power no previous president had, and this reshuffle is about making sure the system runs on his command.

As Harry Hill would say often after the Badger Parade "fight!". In the 90s the U.S. was truly the king of the world, no one was even close. Russia was in shambles, Japan was yesterday’s news, China was no where near what it would become.They even had a few budget surpluses, seems unthinkable now. This is the new world order for better or worse. https://kyivindependent.com/iranian-missile-transfer-to-russia-dramatic-escalation-in-war-us-official-says/ Iran's transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia constitutes a "dramatic escalation" in Tehran's support for Moscow's full-scale war against Ukraine, White House National Security Council Spokesperson Sean Savett said on Sept. 6. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Sept. 6 that Iran has sent an unspecified number of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. The U.S. is "alarmed" by reports of the transfer, Savett said in a statement issued to Reuters and other media outlets. "Any transfer of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia would represent a dramatic escalation in Iran's support for Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine," he said. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-chief-urges-china-stop-supporting-russias-war-ukraine-2024-09-06/ "China has become a decisive enabler of Russia's war against Ukraine," Stoltenberg told reporters in Oslo. "China is the one that enables production of many of the weapons that Russia uses." Stoltenberg warned that Beijing's continuous fuelling of the war in Ukraine could adversely impact its interests and reputation. "I call on China to stop supporting Russia's illegal war," he said.

The "fight until victory" crowd if they truly beleive that scare me almost as much as Putin's feral cunning and cruelty. Both positions embrace huge amounts of more suffering which at this stage of this tragic conflict benefits no-one except perversely US interests. The RAND Corporation in their excellent report Avoding a Long War explicitly laid this out way back when and it remains truer now then ever before. Particuarly so as western inventories are bascially empty and Russia has survived an epochal pivot away from the west and gone on a near total war footing. These are known knowns now as Iraqi friend Donald Rumsfeld said as he was selling chemical weapons to Saddam way back when degrading Iran was a prime foreign policy consideration. https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html A long war would also maintain pressure on European governments to continue to reduce energy dependence on Russia and spend more on their defense, possibly lessening the U.S. defense burden in Europe over the long run. Here too, however, it is likely that European countries will maintain these policies regardless of how much longer the war lasts. Yet there are significant downsides of a long war for U.S. interests (Table 4). A longer war will lead to further loss of life, displacement, and suffering for Ukrainian civilians; minimizing these humanitarian consequences for Ukraine is a U.S. interest. Continued conflict also leaves open the possibility that Russia will reverse Ukrainian battlefield gains made in fall 2022. Moscow's mobilization might stabilize the lines as of December 2022 and allow Russia to launch offensives in 2023. The intensity of the military assistance effort could also become unsustainable after a certain period. Already, European and some U.S. stocks of weapons are reportedly running low.[23] There is thus reason to question whether a longer war will lead to further Ukrainian gains—losses are possible too.

This. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68273449.amp Europe will need 10 years before it is fully ready to defend itself, the boss of Germany's biggest defence firm, Rheinmetall, told the BBC. Armin Papperger said that ammunition stocks are currently "empty".

It's a tragic stuck record but as I point out above "we are successfully exploiting Russia’s national security concerns by using dripfeed equipment to batter the Russian armed forces." and besides which the cupboards are bare.You cannot give what you don't have or wish to keep for yourself. Speaking at a Nato weapons talk, the Ukrainian president said western allies had begun to show a shortage of weapons and cooperation https://archive.is/Dxsy1#selection-2493.4-2497.139 Volodymyr Zelensky accused Britain of slowing down deliveries of long-range missiles during key Nato weapons talks. The Ukrainian president said Britain and other allies were showing a “shortage of missiles and cooperation” with fresh shipments of Storm Shadows and other ammunition. He pleaded with London and Washington to loosen restrictions on the weapons to strike deep inside Russia as he seeks to turn the tide of Moscow’s invasion in Kyiv’s favour.

IMO the west has sold to Ukraine a serious miscalculation with regard to Putin; we the public, like Ukraine, seem to be under the impression Putin will stop if the war becomes too costly- I think this is wrong. It’s not, as some would argue, a war motivated by Putin’s ideology. It’s not, as others would argue, a war motivated by resources or money.The Kremlin has made a strategic decision to fight the war until it wins, at any cost. They view the war as a national security necessity. Putin is and has always been a national security hawk. He sees things through the eyes of a KGB agent- he is incredibly calculating - an evil genous as it were. And, the west actually understands this. There is no miscalculation in western capitals; they know what Putin is doing and why he is doing it. And so we are successfully exploiting Russia’s national security concerns by using dripfed equipment to batter the Russian armed forces. If the Russian army wins (which I suspect it will), it will be at far lesser strength than before the war. This weakens Russia and allows the US in particular to focus all of its efforts on the real threat to a free society which is of course the sleeping giant - China. My Kissinger point as it were explained in context. Ukraine’s gamble against Russia risks becoming a blunder https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4862260-ukraine-advance-kursk-scrutiny/ George Beebe, director of grand strategy at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said the Kursk operation was still in its early stages but “looks like it’s heading toward a failure.” “The Russians have not diverted significant numbers of forces from the front lines in Ukraine. If anything, they’ve stepped on the accelerator pedal,” he said. “There seems to be a great deal of skepticism about what this incursion is going to accomplish, and I think growing concerns that it was a blunder.” Russia appears to have accepted the reality of Ukrainian troops in Kursk for now. The Institute for the Study of War assessed this week that “Putin is attempting to preserve the Russian drive on Pokrovsk at the expense of delaying the clearing of Kursk.”

It really is starting to look to the last Ukrainian and Putin won't fall anytime soon. That boat has long since sailed. Putin thinks he can still win a war of attrition in Ukraine - Fighting will drag on while the prospects for diplomacy remain slim FT https://archive.is/qS6MH#selection-1671.0-1675.67 Moreover, in the regions along the border that have witnessed Ukrainian retaliation, support for the Russian war effort is 10-15 per cent higher than the national average of roughly 60 per cent. These are the same regions where, before the war, thousands of people used to visit their Ukrainian relatives and friends across the border. The growth of pro-war sentiment isn’t necessarily resulting in more army recruits, but it makes the government’s job of persuading the Russian people to tolerate an open-ended fight with their neighbours easier.

All the more reason then not to repeat the same mistakes of the Russians. Someone in command has made a major mistake here in allowing Russia a tactical win in a critical area.

It is well known that Ukraine is riddled with Russian spies and citizens that are being turned with honeypots, money and the like. The point remains that a key army resource has been hit when common sense says you don't concentrate large numbers of important personel in a place that can be easily hit.