beautifulthailand99

Thank God for Trump and Putin for keeping the woke gremlins at bay.

The Pentagon's think tank the Rand Corporation maps out a potential road to peace. If the US wills it then I can't see it not happening. They always sneak these out with little fanfare to help shape and inform the mainstream narrative. This follows on from another paper back in February that also talked about an armistice. The days of "by any means necessary" have long gone - neither side can win but both can cause enormous suffering on each other. The problem is at 4 times the size and with ammo, material and men running out Ukraine is majorly disadvantaged in an attritional war. https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2023/12/elements-of-an-eventual-russia-ukraine-armistice-and.html This guy Zelenskiy's previous advisor is positioning himself for a pole position in a post-Zelenskiy world. It is doubtful that with Z at the helm, a peace deal could be agreed and it remains to be seen if extreme nationalists will accept anything but continual war. There can be no doubt when the end comes it will be a vicious struggle for power in the post-war world. https://inews.co.uk/news/world/zelensky-ex-spokesman-russia-president-2796641 But the prospective candidate says that he is challenging Zelensky as a patriot, accusing him of authoritarianism and mismanagement of the war. “Zelensky tried to create a regime of ‘small-Putinism’,” Arestovych said. “He liked to play the role of hero in parliaments around the world. That time is over now… but he became a hostage of his own propaganda. “This has become a big problem because he thinks not about the national interest but about his own position.” The ex-spokesman is not alone in that assessment. Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Kyiv and former heavyweight boxing champion, recently warned: “At some point we will no longer be any different from Russia, where everything depends on the whim of one man.” Ukrainian MP Oleksii Goncharenko told i that he agreed. “You shouldn’t forget that Zelensky was an actor and he wants to be the only actor on the stage,” he said. Critics point to the treatment of General Valery Zaluzhny, the popular commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, who gave an interview stating that the war had reached a stalemate. He was slapped down by Zelensky. Members of the president’s party called for his resignation. The general has reportedly been named as a witness in a probe into wartime failures that some analysts have interpreted as a warning.

True end of Empire stuff the modern-day equivalent of Roman emperor marrying their horse. So long America we'll never see the likes of you again. Now it's Asias' time to screw everything up.

This is probably one of the best takes I've read on the social media war. Mainstream media with carefully curated narratives have led to this disconnect between expectation/hope and reality. As well as reading a wide range of serious publications I also took time to study Twitter and Redditt groups and detailed analysis by YouTube pundits ( something which is banned here) which allowed the viewing of real-time battle footage and pretty early on it was easy to see that the tired old tropes of shovels/washing machines and a Russian army in complete meltdown were largely propaganda and dangerous takes in understanding the nature of the beast. In any case, a dirty peace where Ukraine gets to re-group, re-arm and see which way the future holds in terms of international support which is vital to victory if that is any longer achievable will prevent any further terrible suffering on both sides. Zelesniy has always hoped for unconditional support/NATO boots on the ground but is starkly apparent to even the most unseasoned observer that this is simply never going to happen. The promised war-winning Western increase in munitions production simply has not materialised and Russia has transitioned to a war economy, and its seizing of Western companies in response to a sanctions regime whose effects have proved the opposite to those intended, has granted Russia both renewed offensive potential and an economic boom to pay for it. "Russia is never as strong as she looks; Russia is never as weak as she looks." (Attributed to multiple individuals, including Winston Churchill.) https://unherd.com/thepost/did-social-media-activism-hurt-the-ukrainian-cause/ As a result of the internet attention economy, much of the discourse around the Ukraine war turned into reckless boosterism. Voices urging Ukrainian caution as the Kyiv government’s war aims escalated were shouted down as defeatists or pro-Russian propagandists. An unhealthy dynamic was created, where the most accurate analysis either retreated into closed discussion spaces or was carefully hedged into vapidity to avoid trolling by Ukraine’s online army of foreign cheerleaders. Most dangerously, to even broach the idea that Russia retained vast and underused military potential would bring accusations of closet Putinism. As only the most optimistic Kyiv claims were shared, it created, according to the former Ukrainian defence minister Oleksiy Reznikov’s head of communications Iryna Zolotar, “a confusing narrative where ‘expectations are overstated and do not correspond to the real state of affairs.’” And as Zolotar remarks, “the current strategy had left audiences in the West asking why they should contribute their taxpayers’ money if Ukraine was always ‘about to win.’”

It is often said from a global security view Putin is the least bad option Nikolai Patrushev is often talked about as the most likely successor and is widely thought to be worse. It is a gangster state with nuclear weapons, a vicious security apparatus and a relatively compliant population inured to death and misery on the world's largest country with vast mineral wealth. It has never had a democratic, civilised society that we in the West would recognise. Ukaraine's misfortune was to be located next door. An unchangeable fact of geography. https://time.com/6284209/after-vladimir-putins-rule-in-russia/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Patrushev

Ahem. Natfali Bennett the actual Israeli PM on camera saying it - nah "according to him" to be replaced with "but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead with his military campaign, according to three people close to the Russian leadership." As John McEnroe was won't to say- "you cannot be serious !"

By that logic, we may as well hang up our boots and stick to figuring out where the best pizza is to be had. I have no reason to doubt his first-hand experiences and recollections. My point is that Zelenskiy is no fool and a wise man who has been monstrously played ultimately by his Western sponsors. He does live next door to a much bigger bully with a shared history and a past record of destroying cities with whom it would have been better to have some sort of compromise. Instead, the worst possible scenario has unfolded - Russia has pivoted to a devilish axis and destroyed much of Ukraine which increasingly looks as if it will be abandoned by those who cheered them into the fight. This is not a rerun of WW2 or we would be all in and what it has exposed is Russia's vulnerability they would never and could never take on a NATO adversary and they are not foolish enough to do so.

Here you go - hopefully, this doesn't fall foul of any rules. According to Bennett, during his mediation efforts Zelenskiy agreed to give up the idea that Ukraine would join Nato, and Putin dropped a vow to seek Ukraine’s disarmament in order to end the war. “Everything I did was coordinated with the US, Germany and France,” he said. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/05/putin-promised-me-he-would-not-kill-zelenskiy-says-former-israeli-pm-naftali-bennett

Unfortunately, most social media forums have become echo chambers of those with sufficient time and energy to reflect on their own confirmation biases in selecting and curating stories. I noticed that you didn't comment on any other sources I provided such as the RAND report or the Meloni comment widely reported by Western mainstream media. My premise being that sadly Ukraine is losing the war and will most certainly do if and when the US and Europe withdraw substantial indefinite support - which many,many commentators are now saying. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/12/28/ukraine-is-losing-but-the-uk-must-stand-by-it/

We won't know for certain what could have happened at that juncture and the other link said that UK/USA demands were the fall of the Putin regime. We were fed a lot of disinfo at the start of the war, Putin has only months to live, has cancer, will be removed in a coup , sanctions will collapse the economy- none of which have transpired. Indeed he looks stronger than ever which is what this missile strike was intended to brutally project. Since the collective West is unwilling or unable to further this senseless bloody war it's time to explore avenues for a dirty peace.

As PM Meloni let slip in that call with Russian pranksters as far as Europe is concerned it's a done deal they want out add to that US direction of travel and a 'dirty' peace deal is on the cards. Ukrainian politicians such as Davyd Arakhamiia and Arestovich are already jockeying for positions and questioning Zelenkiy's leadership as does General Valerii Zaluzhny who is getting the blame for the failure of the counter-offensive. I suspect an election would be the best way forward to help clear the air for their future. https://news.yahoo.com/head-ukraines-leading-party-claims-205150773.html https://www.politico.eu/article/giorgia-meloni-ukraine-fatigue-prank-call-russia-war/ https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-russia-talks/ https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/12/28/in-ukraine-general-zaluzhnyi-holds-president-zelensky-to-his-responsibilities_6382631_4.html European leaders are “tired” of the war in Ukraine, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told two Russian pranksters in a call — thinking she was speaking with officials with the African Union. Meloni informed the pair that “fatigue” with the war was coming to a head. “I see that there is a lot of fatigue, I have to say the truth, from all the sides,” she said. “We [are] near the moment in which everybody understands that we need a way out.”

Well, Xi has kicked off the New Year by saying Taiwan belongs to China, and Israel is flinging all it's inventory at Gaza. No doubt getting ready for new fronts opening with Hezbollah, Iran and Yemen and Western stockpiles of kit are all out and the shadow of Putin stooge, President Trump looms over the year like the spectre at the feast. Thankfully the Pentagon Think Tank the Rand Corporation snuck out a think piece earlier in the year mapping out potential ends to the war. To the last Ukrainian maximalists will not like their conclusions nor will Zelenkiy. Sadly, that appears Zelenskiy was on the cusp of a peace deal in March 2022 and Boris was sent in to say don't take it we've got your back. As Lindsey Graham likes to say it's the best value war the US has ever fought and now withholds aid unless border deals have been done. Like Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan before it 2024 will probably be the year of the latest great betrayal. https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html Our analysis suggests that this debate is too narrowly focused on one dimension of the war's trajectory. Territorial control, although immensely important to Ukraine, is not the most important dimension of the war's future for the United States. We conclude that, in addition to averting possible escalation to a Russia-NATO war or Russian nuclear use, avoiding a long war is also a higher priority for the United States than facilitating significantly more Ukrainian territorial control. Furthermore, the U.S. ability to micromanage where the line is ultimately drawn is highly constrained since the U.S. military is not directly involved in the fighting. Enabling Ukraine's territorial control is also far from the only instrument available to the United States to affect the trajectory of the war. We have highlighted several other tools—potentially more potent ones—that Washington can use to steer the war toward a trajectory that better promotes U.S. interests. Whereas the United States cannot determine the territorial outcome of the war directly, it will have direct control over these policies. A dramatic, overnight shift in U.S. policy is politically impossible—both domestically and with allies—and would be unwise in any case. But developing these instruments now and socializing them with Ukraine and with U.S. allies might help catalyze the eventual start of a process that could bring this war to a negotiated end in a time frame that would serve U.S. interests. The alternative is a long war that poses major challenges for the United States, Ukraine, and the rest of the world.

My new favourite in a cost/ambience/quality and variety category. https://www.facebook.com/copperspoonpattaya/

I love my wife so much that I even got her name wrong. It's Asean - even though it's Thai Visa Forum.

I use a 0.5 ml of 1% solution to treat fox mange back in the UK and pay royally for it. Any idea what strength these tablets are and how much I will stock up on it for my return.

Well said that man and in the Jewish Chronicle of all places not known for pulling their punches. https://www.thejc.com/lets-talk/israel-is-losing-the-propaganda-war-to-hamas-unxjrttx Those of us whose family members were Holocaust victims see Israel as a most important country, the legal, permanent and legitimate homeland for Jews. But I am sure that I speak for my late parents in expressing extreme concern about the harrowing loss of innocent life and also of secure homes and freedoms in Gaza, when strategic and tactical alternatives are available. The Americans made many mistakes after 9/11, some of which are being repeated by Israel. International Law supports Israel’s right to self-defence for its people and borders. The test of proportionality is complex and challenging. Israel might be broadly correct in its approach to the law. But it is not carrying public opinion in the countries with which it enjoys precious alliances. The propaganda war is not falling well for Mr Netanyahu, and many who wish to make sympathetic arguments for Israel look forward to him being replaced soon by somebody with a more serious and palliative view of the future. Palestine and Palestinians will not disappear, nor will their sense of injustice if there is not an urgent new sense of a different realism for the future. When asked “what comes next?” we need to see some vision for repair and conciliation. At present all we can do is look down at our feet in embarrassment.

And you pointing that out - it's like a hall of mirrors- I guess that's why pointless was invented as a word - that's the work they are not doing! That's a great website by the way. Should we do an actual job or just be photoed pointing at things.

Need a media team and an army of finger pointers to be photographed pointing at things.

She's plain evil and a member of an extremist Buddhist cult that was founded by a pervert no less. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/15/new-attorney-general-suella-braverman-in-controversial-buddhist-sect

Sorry to hear of your predicament. I'm in Thailand until late February if you are still logging on when I get back, I would be happy to get in touch and help you out with stuff I may have. Got lots of spare sh!t such as tents, stoves, sleeping bags, clothes and the like as I'm a veteran recycler at Glastonbury so I have picked up loads of stuff over the years left behind. You seem like a cheerful, lucid and well-educated person by your postings. I have a mate who owns a fair few properties in Hastings and rents them out in bulk to the YMCA and the council. Good luck - do get in touch come the time if you want to.

This is the cost of uplifting the frozen pension - 4.5 billion over 5 years. Let's say for argument's sake 5% is fraudulently claimed then that's a potential loss of 250 million. The cost to amend the system effectively peanuts - ROI for the civil servant that recommends it to the minister is off the scale. Data doesn't live in dusty silos anymore. You may or may not get away with it but I wouldn't bet on it. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/estimated-cost-of-uprating-uk-state-pensions-in-frozen-rate-countries-2024-to-2028/estimated-costs-of-uprating-state-pension-in-frozen-rate-countries-2024-to-2028

Bragging on an open forum about committing pension fraud isn't as clever as you think it is. Defrauding the UK state pension, or engaging in pension fraud, is considered a serious offense. The penalties for such fraudulent activities can include both criminal and civil consequences. As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, here are potential penalties for defrauding the UK state pension: Criminal Charges: Individuals involved in defrauding the state pension may face criminal charges. If convicted, they could be subject to fines and imprisonment. The severity of the penalties may depend on the nature and extent of the fraud. Civil Penalties: The UK government has mechanisms in place to impose civil penalties for pension fraud. The Pensions Regulator has the authority to take action against individuals or organizations that breach pension law. Civil penalties may involve financial sanctions. Repayment of Illegally Obtained Benefits: Individuals found guilty of pension fraud may be required to repay any state pension benefits obtained through fraudulent means. This could include a requirement to return the funds received improperly. It's important to note that laws and penalties can change, and new developments may have occurred since my last update in January 2022. If you have concerns or suspicions about pension fraud, it is advisable to report them to the relevant authorities. In the UK, this may include reporting the matter to the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) or other law enforcement agencies.

Chat GPT As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, there wasn't a direct integration between the UK Border Force's computer system and the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) database. However, both agencies play distinct roles, and there are information-sharing mechanisms in place to ensure that immigration and welfare policies are enforced effectively. The UK Border Force is responsible for securing the UK border, enforcing immigration and customs regulations, and preventing illegal immigration. They use various systems and databases to verify the identity and immigration status of individuals entering or leaving the country. On the other hand, the Department for Work and Pensions manages social welfare and benefits programs in the UK. This department administers a range of benefits, including pensions, unemployment benefits, and disability benefits. While these agencies may share information through government networks and databases, the specifics of their data integration and sharing processes are subject to legal and privacy considerations. The UK government has data protection laws and regulations in place to safeguard individuals' personal information. It's important to note that developments in government systems and policies can change, and there may have been updates or changes since my last knowledge update in January 2022. For the most current and accurate information, I recommend checking with official government sources or contacting the relevant agencies directly.

The police may well not have access to the Border Force data on a regular basis but they probably easily could if they had to. A computer somewhere knows who you are and when you entered and exited the country. The DWP has details of your pension and eligibility. It would not be difficult to join up those 2 data sets and indeed would be surprised if they didn't at some point. The reason Thai authorities are going after overseas remittances is probably that they can now that the tech and processor power required to crunch that data is now here.

Border Force - entry and exits - all the data is on there if and when they choose to see it and has been for some years and you have to ask yourself why they wouldn't use that it's low-hanging fruit and easy to code for a potentially big return. They could back date it as well and apply penalties. Exit checks came in 2015.