Bandersnatch

Japan says China’s EV boom in Thailand is a huge threat to its auto market

What’s with you guys! Why does nobody post any evidence to support their statements? Do you expect everyone to just believe what you say as fact? “So far, the typical EV battery has been proven to last about 200,000 miles, nearly 20 years. Tesla is rumored to be developing an EV battery that will last 1,000,000 miles, much longer than the average vehicle, currently 11.9 years” https://www.lifewire.com/do-evs-last-as-long-as-gasoline-cars-5202392

Based upon your extensive experience owning EVs over the past few decades? or is that just your uniformed opinion?

For me it wasn’t a gamble, I knew I had excess solar power in the middle of the day and could charge 2 EVs for free. Buying my second EV with bi-directional charging, meant I had enough backup power to dump my PEA meter. No fuel bills and no electricity bills didn’t sound like much of a gamble to me. Charging my EVs for free:

American are unhappy with their EVs, that’s understandable they can’t buy Chinese EVs

I bought a second one and then an electric motor bike. Damn, I keep forgetting I don’t like them.

The problem for EV owners trying to have discussions with EV haters is that they have to spend the whole time fact checking the unsubstantiated rubbish that’s posted. Case in point, your post. Your opinion was based upon owning how many EVs? Ok, so how many have you actually driven? Have you even sat in one then? Not exactly an expert witness then are you.

Many of the replies here clearly failed to read the title. This is about Premium EV sales and sources quoted are from BMW. Many replies assume all EV sales are down in Thailand when in fact comparing the first 6 months of 2023 and 2024, EV sales are up. ICE sales are down particularly pickups “Pickups and pickup passenger vehicles took a big hit. In March, pure pickup sales dropped by 45.2%, and pickup passenger vehicles by 46.6%” https://thethaiger.com/guides/automotive/thailand-automotive-sales-in-2024

I had deep cycle gel batteries in my first solar setup 7 years ago and they still have some life in them. If you want to hear more about their story and why I now have LFP instead watch this video

I would recommend buying a BYD domestic solar battery that comes with a warranty and should cost a reasonable ฿5-10k per kWh There are definitely no “old” EV batteries available in Thailand only crash damaged recovered ones. The standard warranty on EV batteries is 8 years with a minimum of 70% capacity remaining. The oldest EVs in Thailand are only 6 years old.

To avoid confusion The formula for ROI is: (profit minus cost) / cost, expensed as a percentage. The formula for Payback is: initial investment / annual savings, expressed in years In your circumstances, having a small electric bill and not being at home much makes solar a marginal decision at best but I still dispute the 15 years payback as any solar system can be scaled to match the load.

My solar system has LFP batteries, which are the same chemistry as my BYD Seal. I imported them from China, but in recent years you can now buy similar batteries in Thailand. Regarding using old EV batteries for home use, in Thailand there are just not enough of them available yet. Thailand only started ramping up EV sales in 2019 If you are able to find one you have 2 choices currently, either dismantle the battery to gain access to the individual cells to make a new battery or find a way to communicate with the battery as a pack, bearing in mind many of the components you will need are probably still in the donor car Many of these problems have already been solved for older cars like the Nissan Leaf (which didn’t sell well in Thailand)

This is my setup:

The Nissan Leaf, one of the first EVs that you could buy in Thailand is being phased out resulting in some in some excellent deals as Nissan trys to clear stock. Case in point, you can lease an Nissan Leaf in the US for $20/month So I popped over to the Nissan Thailand website to see what was on offer here. First for some context, Nissan launched the 40kWh Leaf in Thailand for ฿2m back in 2018, when it didn’t sell the price was cut in half I was thinking maybe Nissan Thailand would drop the price to ฿500,000 but with CHAdeMO and no active thermal battery management, you could argue that the 40kWh Neta V would still be a better choice. Turns out Nissan Thailand have actually put the price up

Seal tire repair. Living in Thailand this is the sort of the job I will never do myself ever again.

Still waiting for a breakdown of your calculations for 15 year payback for solar You claim to have an EV, but no details offered as to which one. Let me help you with your calculations I make a saving on my previous PEA bill and powering my EVs of ฿8k a month let’s assume you save half that ฿4k x 180 months = ฿720,000 So your solar system would have to cost you ฿720,000! Let’s assume you get a quote for a 10:10:10 system Main Components would cost 10,000 Watts of PV @ ฿5/W = ฿50,000 10kWh Batteries @ ฿5k/kWh = ฿50,000 10kW of Inversion @ ฿5k/kW = ฿50,000 Total = ฿150,000 to which you have to add ancillary items like cables, rails, clamps, breakers, combiner boxes plus fitting A supply and fit quote would include mark up on your components as well but even so we are nowhere near ฿720,000 I’m calling bs on your 15 years payback

My car’s battery is designed to push a 2 tonne car at over 100km/hr for 160,000km and after that it is warrantied to still have over 70% capacity left. By comparison when I use it for my home backup I am drawing only a few hundred watts. How is that going to significantly shorten the battery lifespan compared to driving it? I can power my house all night and only use the equivalent of 50km or range. You have to crunch the numbers before making sweeping statements like "reducing the life time of your car battery"

Nice setup. I have found that my BYD Seal is much more efficient at providing backup power than my home solar setup.

The anti EV/PV brigade like to criticize long payback times for solar, but always fail to acknowledge that Payback ignores savings made after payback has been achieved and with solar panels having a working life of 20-25 years they are ignoring a lot of savings. The next line of attack is to criticize payback for not taking into account inflation claiming that future savings are worth less but again failing to acknowledge that electricity costs tend to rise faster than inflation. Case in point we are looking at a potential 44% increase in electricity costs this year. Those of us shifting from ICE to EVs and Solar are looking at increased savings as fuel prices also rise faster than inflation. Currently the Oil Fuel Fund has accumulated losses of over 100 billion baht after subsidizing diesel, gasohol and gasoline prices a situation that is not sustainable. Being an accountant I tend to be 'conservative" (with a small c) and use historic figures so as not to overstate the savings for solar and EVs

Payback and Net Present Value are separate investment appraisal techniques.

Did you read any of the earlier posts before posting? Thailand makes too much power at night that's why they sell it at half price. Most EV owners either have solar or a TOU meter. You clearly don't understand levelized cost of electricity by source. If you did, then you would know that Solar and Wind are the cheapest. Crying for "Coal /Gas / Oil/ Nuclear" will put everyone's bill up. "Solar isn't going to cut it" in the tropics? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source

In addition: self consumption will always provide better value than selling back to the grid unless Thailand changes it’s feed-in rates to allow arbitrage like in the UK Unfortunately this is unlikely as the current flat rate ฿2.2 feed-in scheme has been closed to new customers apparently due to lack of money!

Can you provide a breakdown of your calculation or did you just guesstimate it? My setup: Main Components (at todays prices) 20,000 Watts of PV @ ฿5/W = ฿100,000 36kWh Batteries @ ฿5k/kWh = ฿180,000 20kW of Inversion @ ฿5k/kW = ฿100,000 Total = ฿380,000 Savings: PEA saving (no meter) ฿4,000/month based on my bills from a few years ago (prices might have gone up) Fuel saving for 2 drivers and 2 vehicles and 1 motorbike ฿4,000/month (based on Previous usage using ICE from a few years ago) = ฿96,000/Year saving Payback = 4 Years Based on what I actually paid a few years ago my payback is closer to 6 years

Due to low demand for electricity at night in Thailand many EV owners have TOU meters to charge their EVs with half price electricity. I use my home solar to charge my 2 EVs and an electric motorbike. I don’t have a meter.

BYD Chargers ฿4/kWh