OnMyWay2

_{Most Thai people are unfortunately racist. They look down on people from Laos, Miramar and Cambodia and look down on people with dark skin. Were I black, I think Thailand is not a country where I would like to live or work.}

Thais in my experience are not racist not surprisingly since half of their own people have dark brown skin.

the whole market was down again today. as you can see tARW is pretty much trading with the market.

The political crisis is temporary but e strengthening of the dollar os something that will be going on for the next couple years. Thailand can try to stabilize their currency but I dont think it's in their interest for the baht to be strong relative to their peers who's currencies are declining,

Can I just point out that the Fed has tapered a further USD 10 bill. and THB hasn't moved very much at all, against GBP it's still sat where it was and all of this without intervention!

Not much movement but we've got 10 more months of tapering ahead of us. Lets see if it can hold up. Other EM's are tanking and Thailand needs to compete.

I agree that QE is sort of uncharted territory and mid 2013 was the turning point. The expectations is that there will be a fallout in emerging markets.

Also interesting that they just brought on Stan Fischer as US fed vice chair who was one of the key players in the 97 Asian financial crisis.

what's the deal with the guy taking the video? His vantage point was almost too good and he didn't even flinch when the shots were fired.

Agreed, though why what factors say to lean toward 34 instead of 30? I guess 30 because that is the average I have been able to budget on the past 3 years being here.

If you're trying to forecast, I would look at where the bhat was under a more normalized Us monetary policy.

You would need to before the financial crisis when the bhat was closer to 40.

That may be the natural rate the BOT will prop up the bhat to give businesses a chance to adjust , they can't do this indefinitely, I think we'll see 38 within the next 3 years.

Why is the baht so stable last few days should be the question. Baht should be dropping like a stone with USD appreciating across the board.

They can artificially prop up the bhat for some amount of time to avoid any kind of panic but gradual decline is almost inevitable.

Foriegn currency reserves have fallen by USD 1.5 bill. over the past five weeks, it's not proving to be very expensive at all.

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=94&language=ENG

That's why they can afford to let it fall over time instead of a quick correction like in the nineties. I dont think that a lower bhat isn't necessarily a bad thing for Thailand. it's just bad if it happens too quickly.

Why is the baht so stable last few days should be the question. Baht should be dropping like a stone with USD appreciating across the board.

They can artificially prop up the bhat for some amount of time to avoid any kind of panic but gradual decline is almost inevitable.

I went to visit View Talay 8 a few months back and the sales person accidentally told me that the building is only 50% sold after 5 years. The funny thing is I tried to make a low offer since I thought some money woule be better than no money and they still wouldn't budge.

I feel like I've mastered trading psychology as I easily have 10k hours

tracking individual stocks on a daily basis.

With stocks at least the psychology comes from learning who the players are in the game. The

news releases, who is credible and who's just trying to rattle the market.

I haven't traded Forex and My 10k hours really only applies to a few stocks so

going to Forex would probably be about like starting from square one with a new stock.

I was just looking at my numbers the other day

75% real estate

20% cash

5% stocks

I overweighted the appreciation assets early on so I could eventually sell them and move into more stable investments.

That plan seems to have worked out well so far.

also I do beleive in offering a fair price. Try to find out what the seller paid for it and use that as a starting point.

It's kind of a bad time to be buying real estate in Thailand the biggest factor is the bhat falling. Coming in close secong would be the massive overbuilding in Pattaya and huge number of properties on the market. And of course the protests, the current account deficits, and US fed tapering.

Thailand is about to cut interest rates so the bhat will fall even further. There's plenty of ammo on your side to negotiate what may seem like a fair price today but sellers who are aware of these facts may be trying to rip you off.

Keep this is mind unless you dont care what kind of deal you get and just plan to buy and not look back.

I'm thinking of buynig a condo looking just at the numbers I think renting is a better deal. It may also be impossible to sell so the value is reall just in the enjoyment I would get from it.

Thanks for the help I have aplace picked out already. I need to negotiate on the price and find an attorney. It's good to hear that it can all be done in a few days.

Im trying to plan how long I need to be in Thailand how long does the process take to buy a condo assuming Bangkok isnt shut down at the time.

I know the building already so I just need to open a bank ccount, do the money transfer, ...anything else?

Can someone explain this to me? So the average Thai from say Isaan. Are they red shirts or yellow shirts?

dont feel bad, I paid for an entire month in advance and the room was so bad I could only stay for 2 days. No refund.

Personally, I am hopping for the baht to go to 42 against the US dollar.

How long have you been hopping? Are you getting tired yet?

With the dollar at just over B31/$1.00 I am hoping you don't have to wait too long.

the usd will only be worth less and less. They're printing ever 80 million dollar new each month!!! That's about a trillion usd a year. the country there will collapse and pull many others down. the usd will not be the reserve standard for long anymore.

They're printing 80 billion each month and it's finding it's way into places like Thailand and India. That's why the rupee went into cardiac arrest at the mere mention that the US might stop with the easy money.

Personally, I am hopping for the baht to go to 42 against the US dollar.

Hang in there. I think we'll see 38 in the next year or so. I was talking to a Thai lady who is pretty savvy in finance and she thinks the bhat will go to 40.

Even if there's no housing bubble the way to clear the system from all of this over building and bad loans will be through bhat depreciation.

Whatever you do dont rent out your condo for 5 years so that it ends up looking like a used hotel room and expect to

get more than you paid for it when it was brand new.

I guess I always assumes that the flippers were farangs. Now Im learning that many of them are Thai people even real estate agents buying up the foreign quota and trying to flip them for a profit.

It's a good time to be a buyer. Thailand is in a recession, massive property overbuilding plus the bhat is expected to fall. If your buying now definitely consider this before paying full price for anything,

Where are these 1million bhat condos in Jomtien? I went looking the other day, The Gallery on soin8 wants 2.5m for a 40sqm shoebox.

might explain why the entire place looked empty with a for rent/sale sign on just about every window.