Strained by these factors, the Russian economy is approaching its moment of truth,” Åslund wrote.
"Inflation will continue to rise in 2025, and people will get even angrier over higher food prices.
"Major bankruptcies are looming, and the Russian state cannot afford large bailouts.
"Business leaders are fiercely objecting to high interest rates, and the shortage of labor – and soldiers – is reaching a crisis stage."
The war in Ukraine is causing both soaring prices and labour shortages.
At the same time the Kremlin is struggling to raise funds for its ballooning defence budget through taxes and bond offerings.
Putin is increasingly having to dip into Russia's National Wealth Fund, whose reserves have plummeted almost 74% from £94 billion to just £25 billion, since the beginning of the war.
A further problem for the Kremlin is the rouble's plunge in value, which is adding to inflationary pressure.
Western sanctions are also hindering the ability of Russian companies to continue producing vital goods.