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Arkady

Thai Visas Forum Expert
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Posts posted by Arkady

  1. 1 hour ago, Neeranam said:

    I couldn't find it. Just repeat words after the SB officer. There were some long words I didn't know and just mumbled them, no biggie. 

    I mumbled it but was made to repeat some because the officer didn't feel I had articulated it clearly enough.  I think I asked him to read it out a bit slower because he was gabbling it too fast for me to follow. I tried to get the text beforehand to practice but they wouldn't send it, as they said it was very easy and nothing to worry about. They give you a choice of 3 different oaths: Buddhist, Christian or Muslim.  Mrs Arkady immediately replied without a moment's hesitation that I wanted the Buddhist one and I accepted that, as it made no difference to me, even though I am not a Buddhist.  I think they are very similar with only a few words changed anyway. No provision is made for people of other religions or atheists and agnostics.  

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  2. On 7/15/2021 at 5:39 PM, themike1080 said:

    If I start my job in August, would the tax submitted for that year count? Or does it have to meet a minimum for applying via Thai spouse?

    You need three years' of tax receipts.  I am not sure if it would count in the sense you mean. So if you apply in September after working for exactly three full years, you would technicallly be qualified but your tax receipt for the first year would only be for five months and you would not be able to get a certified tax receipt Jan-Aug in the year you applied to make three full years of tax receipts. This is the sort of question that can only be answered with any degree of certainty by SB.  I think it more likely that they would say they want three full years.  However, they look most closely at the last year's tax receipt and compare it with your salary letter to check they are consistent, which according to their logic means that the monthly salary in the letter should be exactly 1/12th of the income you paid tax on the year before.  (I had to get my letter redone as my salary had changed.)  So I think it would worth a try. 

     

    If you go to see them in Bangkok, take all your documents with you and note the name and line ID of the officer you talk to, as they like to handle the applications when enquiries are converted to applications. If you ready to apply, you just contact that officer (unless you really didn't like them) to ask if they are still working there and if it is OK to come to start your application.  I didn't understand this system and just plonked myself down in front of the first desk I came to when I was ready to apply.  This caused problems because the officer I had talked to two years earlier remembered me and was upset that I didn't go to him  I didn't imagine they would remember people like that.  Luckily I got to deal with him for a while later when my officer was transferred to Immigration for a stint and we became friends.

  3. 7 hours ago, yankee99 said:

    I didnt need a physical salary slip but my tax returns needed the minimum amount and had to be certified 

    That's right. They only verify salary from your salary letter and certified tax receipts.  They don't look at pay slips or check the money coming into your account like the nasty farang embassies do with Thais applying for visas or Thai banks do when applying for credit cards. 

     

    I wouldn't say it is absolutely not worth FarangFB applying, if he has the time and inclination and accepts that his case is not without certain weak points to be overcome. If he has all the required documents, it is not a fraud but they are entitled to reject, if they don't like something because it is legally up to the minister's discretion.

    • Like 2
  4. 5 hours ago, sas_cars said:

    suspicion plus if possible, milking of foreigners as much as possible. lol.

    The worst that ever happened to me with Immigration was that I was forced to pay around B40k in tax when I applied for my first NON-B to get a WP.  They saw from my passport that I had made a number of trips to Thailand, about one a month for a few days each for about a year, as I was in HK and could hop over, and they accused me of working illegally in Thailand and made an arbitrary assessment of what they thought my salary might be and charged me tax on it on the spot. The calculation was made in about 5 minutes on the back of an envelope.  When I objected that I had not been in Thailand for 180 days in the tax year and that I had paid tax on my overseas salary and the UK and Thailand had a double tax treaty, they just said made some threatening comments about how I could go and argue the case with the Revenue Dept, if I might end up criminally prosecuted by the Labour Ministry for working without WP, and have to pay anyway without getting the NON-B and WP.  I did get a receipt but in retrospect I thought it was a scam, as I am sure they have no authority to make arbitrary assessments of tax on behalf of the Revenue Dept and collect it too.  Plus they had absolutely no evidence other than my visits to Thailand.  I wanted to take it up with a lawyer but my office manager advised paying and moving on, as we were setting up an office and hiring staff and didn't need this type of hassle.  Luckily I had a receipt, even though it was probably bogus as far as the Revenue Dept was concerned and my boss was sympathetic and allowed me to claim it as an expense from the company.  B40K was a lot of money in those days at 25 to the $.

     

    I was shaken by that experience of gangster type extortion in plain sight in the Immigration office at Soi Suan Plu and it made me for ever wary of them.  I guess they knew I was new to Thailand and thought it worth a try that could easily be denied as a misunderstanding, if I complained, or that my signed acknowledgement was tantamount to a confession of working with WP or something that would get me into trouble, if I did complain.

     

    Sadly I hear some stories that suggest things have not been improving under the current government.   

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  5. 7 hours ago, mortenaa said:


    My plan is to keep my current citizenship, as Norway accept dual now. Did the ask you to renounce your US one??  

     

    It is an odd situation, as Joe said. Like many Thai laws the Nationality Act is ambivalent on this point.  There are provisions allowing for revocation of Thai nationality from naturalised Thais under certain circumstances including making use of or taking an active interest in original nationality but there is no specific provision to require renunciation.  Until 2009 they seemed perfectly happy to allow people to retain their other nationality and said things at the MoI interview like,"Does your country allow you to keep your citizenship after you become Thai? Oh good. That's nice for you."  Then in 2009 came the bombshell.  An extra para appeared in the MoI guidelines which are not from a ministerial regulation published in the Royal Gazette and therefore do not have the force of law. This para required applicants to submit an affidavit witnessed at the applicant's embassy expressing intent to renounce original nationality after getting Thai nationality. At first Special Branch was confused about the new guideline introduced, as they pointed out, without any amendment to the Act or ministerial regulation and informally recommended applicants to either ignore or follow it, as they liked.  But soon all the pleasanteries about retaining another citizenship ceased and SB and the MoI were on the same page in telling people they had to renounce former nationality. 

     

    What was the reason for this chance of stance?  The most likely explanation is that the MoI felt felt very threatened by the amendment to the Nationality Act in 2008 forced through parliament by a lady Democrat MP in support of Thai women's  rights. This amendment allowed foreign husband's of Thai women to apply for citizenship without getting PR first to put Thai women closer to parity with Thai men who could easily get citizenship for their foreign wives. There is documentary evidence that the legal department of the MoI vigorously resisted the amendment, which they portrayed as a threat to national security without making clear in the document the precise nature of the threat from foreign husbands vs foreign wives.  Anyway they succeeded in watering down the amendment but not blocking it.  So it seems quite possible that, having failed to change the law as much as they wanted, they settled for making changes to the guidelines that they hoped would stem the flow of naturalisations, without going through the legal process. At any rate, when you consider that roughly the majority of applicants are Chinese and Indian, the new guideline, which includes writing to embassies to inform them of naturalisations of their citizens, should mean that embassies will revoke their citizenships and do the MoI's work for them.  

     

    Now 13 years on from the amendment it doesn't seem as if the MoI's obvious fears of a torrent of naturalisations of men with Thai wives threatening national security has taken place.  Many of those applying with Thai wives would have got PR and become Thai anyway 5 years later and the Chinese and Indian applicants tend to have wives from their own country. One other objection to dual nationality from the MoI was that having another nationality facilitates criminal activities.  But this seems a bit far fetched in the case of naturalisation to Thai, given the detailed scrutiny, the lengthy process and the sheer hassle.  There are plenty of countries in the Caribbean where criminals can easily buy citizenship without even travelling there.

  6. 3 hours ago, GarryP said:

     

    I have paid in Baht 214,594, so I believe it would make more sense drawing the pension than cashing out,  assuming that they will continue to pay the pension after that sum has already been used.  It will pay me a pension of Baht5,500 for 39 months or 3 years and 5 months. Any payments after that period will be out of the government pocket, and I do not plan kicking the bucket until I'm into my eighties, so they will end up having to pay me considerably more. If I live until I am 80, they will have to pay me an additional 1,122,000 Baht, which is pretty good. 

     

    Now having said that, I will probably find out that they will cut me off once my portion has been paid out.  

     

    Yes, it is a good deal, unless you can identify a stellar investment for the lump sum like Neeranam did.  That's why I was hacked off to be kicked out of SS. 

     

    In the UK it is similar with the voluntary contributions to the state pension even though it is frozen, if you live in Thailand.  Paying several years of voluntary contributions worked out at a similar pay back period of about 3 years.  Of course you need to have enough contributions already to qualify and they only let you pay four years past contribution at a time.

     

    • Like 1
  7. 30 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

    I didn't know you could get that much. I thought the maximum salary was 15,000 baht. 

    One of my friends just applied and was told as he has worked over 15 years, he can't get the cash out lump sum, like I did. However, he got them to agree to his wife getting the amount when he dies. He was only quoted about 1500 a month. 

    Last year, I turned 55 and got 160,000 baht; I bought a bitcoin fire the future. . 

     

    Good  call to cash out and put into bitcoin last year.  I thought it was 40% of maximum salary of the last few years, i.e. 6,000 a month but I haven't looked into it since I got kicked out. 

    • Like 1
  8. 2 hours ago, onthemoon said:

    Thanks for the links, I have downloaded the PDFs and will read through them.

     

    I have had no problems with Social Security. I have even received a return when I overpaid due to having two jobs (each with a work permit). 

     

    Due to aging populations, it will be difficult to pay pensions, but that is the same the world over.

     

    I think the best efforts have been made by countries like Singapore and New Zealand that have properly vested contributory national pension schemes.  The worst models are countries like the UK where there is no connection between the contributions and the pensions.  The contributions just go into current national revenues and the pensions are paid out of current expenses with no attempt to make one fund the other or to provide for better outcomes than absolutely basic for the pensioners.  The Thai SS in concept was supposed to be vested but has obviously failed in this already only a few years into its pension payments. It also only provides for the only most basic and inadequate outcome possible for the pensioners with increases based not on inflation but on government whim.  Large swathes of he population who work in the informal or agriculture sectors are excluded from the scheme.  It is better than what they had before, which was nothing, but only just.

     

    One of the biggest problems I see in social security and healthcare provision is that there are two or three tier systems.  In pensions there is the generous government pension scheme for civil servants and state enterprise employees largely funded by the taxpayer.  In healthcare, there are three schemes: civil service, SS and gold card.  Since civil servants and their families are well taken care of on both counts, there is no incentive for senior mandarins to propose better schemes for the despised hoi polloi.  If there was only one government pension scheme and one healthcare scheme for everyone civil servants would be pushing like hell to improve the systems.   

    • Like 1
  9. 1 hour ago, onthemoon said:

     

    I'm not 60 yet, but getting there. I understand the pension I receive for having paid the maximum contribution into Social Security since it was introduced is in the range of THB 6,000/month.

     

    I think you are talking about something else here. Anybody (who has paid in) can get THB 600/month? Even if still working? Does that have any influence on the pension? - If you have a link where I can read this up (in Thai is OK), that would be great. Thanks.

     

    It is not Social Security.  It is เบี้ยยังชีพผู้สูงอายุ an old age living allowance which is on a par with the disability allowance and is was introduced by the Abhisit government in 2009 for all Thai citizens over 60.  Here are some relevant documents in Thai. The first is the original RG announcement showing the qualifications which are still the same but the original amount was 500 baht for all.  The second shows the current levels which are 600 over 60, 700 over 70, 800 over 80 and 1,000 over 90. 

     

    https://www.dop.go.th/download/laws/regulation_th_20160712093327_1.pdf

     

    http://www.oic.go.th/FILEWEB/CABINFOCENTER18/DRAWER089/GENERAL/DATA0000/00000216.PDF

     

    I forgot to mention a slight wrinkle in the application process which has a window of only 1-30 November to apply in the year before your are 60 and you got paid starting not on the actual date of 60th birthday but in October the following year. If you miss the window, you have to wait till the following year.  I am not sure, if the window is still the same.  Applications for Bkk are at district offices but in the provinces you have to apply at local thesabans or Or Bor Tors.  You only need to re-register if you change address but, if you don't, it probably continues to get paid into your bank account.

     

    Ironically when it was introduced with Abhisit as PM and signatory of the announcement there was a wonderful old British lady who had had Thai nationality for over 50 years as she was married to one of Abhisit's uncles or a great uncle and had the Vejjajiva surname, who applied in Lampang, but was turned down by a nasty racist local official (probably a red shirt) on the basis she was not a real Thai due to her white face.  She was really upset and had a letter published in the Bkk Post about it.  I am sure Abhisit must have choked on his toast that morning and I expect he sorted it out for her but there was no follow up report. 

     

    Re Social Security, one of the reasons I was adamant about applying for this was because I was kicked out of Social Security in a way I thought was very unfair to Thais and non-Thais alike.  In the earlier years of Social Security I was excluded at first because the company had less than 50 employees and then because I was a director.  Finally I worked as a grunt and joined the scheme but because I changed jobs at 60 I was not allowed to remain in the scheme at my new job, although they said it would have been no problem, if I had stayed at the old job. So I was prevented from contributing the full 15 years to be eligible for the SS pension and had to hassle them to get my contributions returned without interest. There is no logic to this other than the government's desire to avoid paying the SS pensions, despite the fact that they are a material source of income to the majority of Thais that are lucky enough to receive them and many people may have only been allowed to join late like me but continue working over 60 and need to change jobs. 

     

    SS from the get go was always going to be a burden on  government finances once at some point after the first pensions became payable a couple of years ago. Due to the incompetence with which the contributions have been invested plus, of course, huge corruption, they were never going to efficiently match assets with liabilities.  COVID has accelerated the arrival of that day and now it is already a huge burden on government finances, the extent of which has yet to be revealed.  Contributions have been drastically reduced by mass unemployment and temporary reductions in monthly reductions while the SS has been burdened with the special unemployment benefits due to COVID.  It is now clearly already technically insolvent and surviving on government debt.  Nevertheless, I believe it is extremely unlikely that the government will ever let SS default on its pension liabilities.  That would create an unsurvivable backlash. However, I equally don't see the government, particularly this one that prefers means tested hand outs, rushing to increase SS pensions and benefits.     

     

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  10. 5 hours ago, GarryP said:

    Would you still get that if you were drawing a social security pension?

     

    I think so.  The rules make you ineligible if you have a government pension or stipend, like the old lady who had to repay the allawance because she had a military  stipend because her son was blown up by accident while in the army.  I checked the rules some time back and didn't see Social Security in the list of disqualifications and think this is logical because it is not income paid directly by the government.  It is income derived from the contributions paid by yourself and your employer. And anyway, a salary is not a disqualification as long as it is not government income.  It is not a lot but hey it's free and easy to get for the cost of a trip to your local DO.  After the coup the government mooted the idea of scrapping it and introducing a means tested allowance instead.  Then they offered certificates of gratitude for people who volunteered not to claim it, which would probably be more complicated to get than the allowance.   I don't agree with means tested allowances as they make beggars of people and the means testing for government hand outs is, in my opinion, done in a disgusting way usually by haughty BAAC officers who make abitrary decisions based on oral evidence about some poor sod who has spent half a day queueing outside the branch in the sun and gets turned down on a whlm.  I have seen them queuing up in the street.  Claiming the allowance is my small protest against means testing and the small minded attempts to abolish the allowance.  Anyway I have paid enough tax in Thailand and don't it as freeloading.

    • Like 2
  11. 1 hour ago, Neeranam said:

    The whole process probably cost me about 50,000 baht but that was for the following

     

     - 5,000 baht fee

    - 7,000 baht charity

    - 40,000 for flights to Bkk, hotels, translation, getting stuff legalized in the Uk, etc

     

    Costs of the Thai wife are considerably more ????

     

     

    Another 1,000 baht for the naturalisation certificate.  Still pretty good value.  I was paying 5,400 baht a year just to endorse my PR books with the hassle of the trips to CW to get it done, not to mention work permit renewals.  If you apply for the old age allowance when you hit 60, which only takes a few minutes at the district office, you recover the fees in 10 months at the current rate of 600 baht a month.  You don't even have to be retired or unemployed to collect it and it just comes in every month without doing anything. 

    • Like 1
  12. 1 hour ago, sinthavee said:

    Thank you for sharing your experiences, Arkady bro.

     I had my meeting with the big committee at Lam Lukka office on 21st Sep, 2020(2 years & 3 months after applying). After all the requisite processing & signatures by the ministries /ministers, the list has been approved & signed by HMK (approximately 9 months from big committee mtg) a few days ago.

     

    My query is how long it could take for getting the call for oath  & if there will be any letter from SB/MOI calling for the oath. Looking forward to hear & learn from recent experiences.
     

    Thanks.

     

    I can't say how long it will take them to get you over for the oath but I guess it won't be too long, since they have informed you that HMK has already signed.  I think the letter I received advising that HMK had signed also told me to report to SB for the oath.  What I recall was that a copy was sent to me by my case officer on LINE and she made an appointment for the oath at the same time.  The only formal letter I received at my home was the one inviting me to the MoI for interview and that arrived two days after the interview but luckily I had received a photograph on LINE a couple of days before the interview.  I also got a colour photocopy of the letter signed by HMK several months after I got my ID card by special arrangement with my case officer who said they were not really supposed to give them out. I understand the letters are now done in batches but mine was an individual one.  Something to treasure.

    • Like 1
  13. 44 minutes ago, sinthavee said:

    Hi Bros,

    I have found this forum  very informative. Thanks to all the contributors. I have a query.

    I understand that the September 2020 final interview passed applicant list has been signed a few days ago. How long it could take for getting a call for the Oath? Also, will there be any letter to the approved applicants from MOI/SB, calling for Oath?

     Thanks.

     

    You have to be passed by the big committee (no interview) and then the minister has to sign and HMK has to countersign.  My timeline was like this.

     

    6 months after MoI interview. Received a letter from SB saying the minister had approved.

     

     9 months after interview.  HMK countersigned application.

     

    14 months after interview. Received a letter from SB advising that HMK had signed.  Was asked to come for oath about a week later.

     

    21 months after interview. Announced in RG.

     

    23 months after interview. Received naturalisation certificate and went to get my ID card.

     

    I don't know if they are still sending the same letters today.  Details like that seem to change frequently.  I think I was fairly lucky in that the minister signed 6 months after my interview and HMK signed 3 months after that. But it seemed odd that it took 5 months for me to be informed that HMK had signed.  Since the 2014 coup many people have got through the process in 3 years.  Before that it generally took longer.  It took me 5 years (waited 3 years for my interview) and 5 to 8 years was considered normal at that time.  

     

     

    • Like 2
  14. 2 hours ago, Neeranam said:
    I think it's normal for us to want to pull our 'Pu Yai' out of the woodwork to gain an edge in/speed up our Citizenship process. However, I think it is often detrimental in the smoothness of the process nowadays for the following reason.
    All Thai government officials, including police, have their own jurisdiction, which many think of as their own little kingdom. After being brought up in the Thai hierarchical social culture, they don't like it, resent it, or feel threatened when the leader of another kingdom comes to 'ask' for a favour, or show their importance in being a rung or two higher on the ladder than the officer. The whole กบุญคุณ  philosophy is a part of Thai society, but isn't appreciated in the Citizenship process, IMHO. Unless the ผู้ใหญ่ is extremely high, govt. minister and above, it could delay the process considerably. 
    I thought of asking a person in a very high social position to come as a witness in the early stages(as I thought it might help) but luckily never. When my 'normal' friends went, they had a great rapport with my officer and even exchanged phone numbers/business cards. Then, I thought how different it would have been taking the big guns there.  
    It reminds me of when I worked at a university in Khon Kaen. I had to go to immigration in Nong Kai in those days and when I went, my boss said I go take a ride in their minivan(going to a funeral). So when it dropped me off at the immigration, all the people decide to come in with my, including the number one at the uni. They were all dressed in the white uniforms and the immigration officer was fuming. He ordered them to go away and spoke to me alone, saying to come back the next month. The next time, he smiled and said, "come back next month". this went on for nearly a year, which was very inconvenient for me, until I was taught my lesson. There was absolutely no real reason for only getting 1 months extensions to my visa.

     

    The simple rules cited through the thread are don't bother your pooyai connections to be witnesses or write testimonials.  Pooyai as witnesses don't make any difference and the pooyai could be caused some inconvenience.  Testimonial letters are accepted by Immigration for PR application (or were in my time) but they are not in the check list for citizenship and SB doesn't want them or didn't when I applied, as I asked them.  I think they could complicate things because that might be something else that needs to be verified or might raise suspicions that the applicant is paying bribes.  I remember being told by one of the officers that a farang came saying he was a friend of Anutin, who was serving his political ban at the time but his father was interior minister.  He thought his connection would get him in the door without complete qualifications but it didn't, probably because too many people review the files and can see instantly if someone, for example, has only one year of PR instead of five or has not been married to a Thai long enough. 

     

    Where your high level connections can be useful is working the phones with the Interior Ministry behind the scenes to speed things up.  There is no doubt that this has been done successfully by some applicants. But the connections have to be very senior to make a difference, preferably with a way in to the interior minister himself.  

     

    • Like 1
  15. 13 minutes ago, Marcati said:

    Good news today.  I was informed by the SB that my application has been completely processed by them and sent to the MOI for next steps.  There were a total of 51 names submitted, which includes a lot of Indian, Chinese and Taiwanese families in groups.

     

    Now let's see how long before we get called by the small committee for the next interview.....

    Congrats.

  16. 21 minutes ago, ALLSEEINGEYE said:

    Studies out of Canada are showing that especially for older people that waiting for 12 weeks to get second round of AZ provides ultimate protection.

     

    Although since that study came out the Canadian govt. is now recommending that anyone that got AZ as their first shot should try to get a Mrna shot for their 2nd dose instead of another AZ. 

     

    I just got my first AZ a couple days ago here in Bkk(sore arm after about 14 hours, mildly sore body but not too bad after a day). My next shot is scheduled for exactly 12 weeks. I am registered at multiple hospitals for Mrna shots but I don't expect to get that before Oct (I hope that changes as I would prefer to have my 2nd shot be Mrna).

     

    I registered for Moderna with THG Hospital group through their website.  They are now saying they expect their batch of Moderna to be valid until end Jan 2022 and say that you need to wait six months after second shot of another vaccine before getting Moderna as a one shot booster and shouldn't confirm order with them, if your second shot will be later than sometime in July which would rule out anyone getting second shots via Mor Prom that started on 7 June. They are saying more research is awaited before saying anything about giving Moderna to someone who has had one shot of AZ or Sinovac.

     

    On that basis I think I would want to have one shot of Moderna in January about 5 months after second AZ shot, assuming I get that 8 weeks after first one.  I don't know if they will allow that.  I have already filled in the details of my first AZ shot.  I suppose you could just pretend you have not had any other vaccine and they will let you book for any date you want. 

     

    Not sure how doses of Moderna private hospitals will get.  They tried to order 10 million but were cut to 5 million for some reason and forced to donate 2 million to the Red Cross. So they will have only 3 million between them and there will be a complete muddle over who should get Moderna and when.  Nearly all the Thais who can avoid a private shot will have have been able to get government shots by the time it arrives.  Also Pfizer and Moderna are working on updated boosters and Thailand will of course not be at the front of the queue for these.

    • Like 1
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  17. 3 hours ago, petedk said:

    So, yet another cock up.

    All those who were vaccinated and used the Mor Prom app were automatically given a new appointment in 16 weeks time.

    When they reduced the time span to 12 weeks the date was also automatically updated.

     

    Now with the latest update to 8 weeks, it seems that the appointments for the 2nd jab have been cancelled and it is up to you to make a new appointment.

    My Mor Prom app doesn't work anymore on my Android, so I can't check.

     

    That has been my experience with Mor Prom too.  Got a second appointment for 16 weeks later.  This morning I found a new appointment in the app for exactly 12 weeks after the first one. Now the app is non-functional.  It just flickers and goes off.  This happened before but I fixed it by downloading the app again. This time that doesn't help. Hopefully it will be up and running again soon and we will find new appointments with an 8 week gap. 

     

    Before Mor Prom went down I noticed something worrying.  It has a page to show vaccination progress across the country and yesterday there were only 118,000 jabs, way short of Prayut's earlier target for the roll out  that was tantamount to at least 300,000 shots a day.  Previously I saw around 190,000 day.  Now with a shorter gap for AZ and the likelihood that all the Chinese vaccines will have to be redone to provide protection against beta and delta variants, they probably need to be doing more like 450,00 a day.

  18. 7 hours ago, Moonfire said:

    Daily cases of Covid increasing. 

     

    Doctors are going on the record against opening and continued lockdown.

     

    The India killer Delta variant Covid has been found in Thailand:

    The variant, first identified in India, is the most contagious yet and, among those not yet vaccinated, may trigger serious illness in more people than other variants do, say scientists tracking the spread of infection.

     

    https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40002327

    The fast-spreading Delta variant will become the dominant strain of Covid-19 in Thailand within four months, a leading virologist warned on Tuesday.

     

    Thailand is about to open up.

     

    The perfect storm!

     

     

    Four months sounds highly optimistic for delta to become the predominate strain.  It happened faster than that in the UK against a much higher level of vaccination and no Chinese vaccines and cases ramped up from 2,000 a day to 7,700 within a few weeks.  Thailand is half way there already.

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