AussieBob18

18 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

You can look at them for free!

And think about the Ozzie alternative - or better don't...

Stop it - enough guys !! 

I am stuck here for another few years waiting for the pension - the above 'girls' are everywhere here.

Hey is that my ex wife in the background - the outline and size looks right.

2 minutes ago, RotBenz8888 said:

And at the next desk, the compulsory insurance. Or which comes first.....

Insurance first - 10K Baht minimum per week staying.

Test OK - on your way - enjoy and spend.

Test positive - stay in isolation - no refunds.

Thanks for coming 

5 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Most travellers would just choose another country to visit.

Thailand ain't that special any more.

If I wasn't already here, I wouldn't be coming.

Not if they all do it - come one mate - money money money

That is what tourists are for obviously (quoting TAT there).

1 minute ago, BritManToo said:

Ban smoking to stop lung cancer (hard in Chiang Mai as we're all smoking 24/7)

Ban drinking to stop liver disease.

Ban sugar to stop diabetes.

Force everyone to exercise 1 hr /day to stop heart disease.

Why pick on smokers, get the idea?

Dont stop there mate - there are so many more.

Ban fast foods causing fat people 

Ban cars and bikes - they kill millions - Govt buses/taxis only

Ban TV - people get stupid ideas - only Govt channels and infomercials (spend money)

I hour exercise - not enough - 2 hours per day minimum - Govt run companies only (nephew own those ones)

Mate - you are on to something - we can all be looked after better - they know best - yes sir no sir 3 bags full sir.

Why not let Govt run things - 1984 - better late than never - the State knows best - Metropolis - when was that? 1929??! 

58 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Offer a free PCR test for all arrivals. After negative results let free. If denying to be tested, 14 day enforced quarantine.

And the tourist pays for it - price stated up front when buy their ticket.

Big money maker for Swampy - millions a day paying 1000 Baht? for a test.

TAT will be all over this idea of yours - it will save the economy ????

40 million tourists times 1000 Baht - oh goody - lots of money - lets do it.

1 hour ago, yuyiinthesky said:

May be due to the tax income from selling cigarettes. More tax seems to be more important than avoiding lung cancer, at least as long as nobody complains about it.

True.  And that is the reality of this madness.  

2 hours ago, smutcakes said:

How do we know that the spread has been vastly reduced from the social distancing measures and the reasons other countries have not done a China, SK, Italy etc is because of those measures taken. Surely the fact that everyone is ramping down is a strong sign that lock downs are working, and if not implemented the situation could very rapidly spiral out of control like Spain and Italy.

 

Heard immunity is a good idea in principle but its based on the knowledge that to get their you would need enormous amounts of people to get sick, huge numbers would die and i dont think anyone was willing for that to be the case as you would flood vital services. Also not sure about your suggestion on selective areas of herd immunity, how in practice would that work, and would you essentially not be saying some people lives are more important than others as many would die.

 

I agree on the massive financial impact this could/will have, so i am sure Governments are looking for a way out, no doubt advised by the worlds best. Not sure if you have any background in this type of situation or medical background, but for me the majority of experts seem to be roughly in agreement that lock downs is the best way to go, so i am personally inclined to trust them.

OK - so you havent read previous posts. Italy and Spain had lockdowns - didnt work.

Not a fact that the lockdowns reduced the numbers that much - speculation.

The herd idea is to do the Sweden model - I detailed that earlier - 20s to 50s deal with it - 70 plus isolated.

Vast majority of deaths are over 80s.  In Aust we have had one under 60 die - 50 year old with medical problems.

Make the old ones safe - let the young ones catch and develop immunities - virus dies out.

That is because the evidence shows the mortality rate under 50 is same as seasonal flu.

11 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

Bob,

I think the main reason countries have shut down is due to the deep concern with the speed and severity of how the virus appeared to be spreading. The way it went through Spain and Italy particularly had countries worried that if they did not take drastic measures the sheer volume needing critical care at any one time would completely overwhelm health care systems throughout the countries. If the virus was left to run its course and infect huge numbers of people with even 5-10% needing hospitalization, then there is very good fear a complete breakdown of society. Healthcare officials walking out, people dying in the streets, civil unrest etc

I am not sure if you have put forward your solution to how these problems could have been avoided, or what you think would of been the best way to navigate the crisis.

Just to correct a point - the restrictions started being discussed and partially implemented in late-February and at that time the 'bad' numbers were only evident in China and Korea - but the WHO models were horrendous. The stock markets started to crash at the same time - 24th Feb.  Once things progressed quickly in other other countries (Italy and Iran), the restrictions were starting to be upgraded - the Govts all followed each other (notable exceptions like Thailand).  Initial evidence in Feb indicated that the early models were correct, and when surges happened in Italy, Spain things were ramped up. Since then the modelling numbers are being ramped down - 100K in Aust became 60K became 40K became 20K - we are at at 61.   

Has the social distancing done that? Reduced it by 100s of millions worldwide?  Really?  Or is it like H1N1 (Swine Flu) and the initial model numbers were over estimated - by a large factor.  They over reacted for the right reasons - but they over reacted.  In some places they should have shut down completely - in others gradually.  Next time they will know - but to deny we are in lockdown unecessarily for something that has killed 100K, when TB etc. kills millions each year, is what I am against accepting.

If you read my posts you will see that I have offered lots of solutions - number 1 is that the lockdowns should be gradually released  and herd immunity developed in places that are clearly showing this would be OK to do (eg. not New York). Covid aint going away - it will be back - there will be no vaccine for a long time if ever - keeping people 'safe' just makes it worse next time - herd immunity is the only answer.  Unless you are happy to be locked down for 6-9 months and come out of it with the world economy destroyed and billions with no means to live - Govts cannot keep giving support for 6-9 months - billions  cannot all go back to the farm and grow rice and chickens.

12 minutes ago, tomazbodner said:

I know that's chart based on official data, but - nobody knows how many people are really infected. You can't say it's 1.49% fatality rate against infections. Only against confirmed infections, which is by itself a load of nonsense. It's kind of like polls. Out of 1000 people (from 66,560,000), 23% said that... But at least here you have one number fixed, the percentage of people polled, in case of COVID you have no idea what percentage of population is infected, nor how many percent of these were confirmed, nor how many have actually died of it, as only deaths of confirmed COVID patients are counted, and even there you don't know which way they mark things - if a guy has COVID and has a heart failure - is that considered COVID or heart failure related? As such, as nice as these numbers look, they mean nothing. And that's not only for Thailand.

Mate you are talking total sense and logic - many others cant seem to find that perspective.  The experts only learn the real numbers after the viral infection has dissipated - that has been the same for all previous viral outbreaks.  And just like many before Covid, this was has been blown up out of all proportion - but this time they got things shut down.

QUOTE:  A major contributing factor to some of the criticisms of the management of the H1N1 pandemic was that its mortality impact was considerably less than had been predicted. Pre-pandemic global estimates of death were often in the millions while the ultimate death toll has been reported in the thousands. The large discrepancy in the predicted and reported death tolls suggests that there is a potential problem in how influenza deaths are estimated, counted and compared.

The above is from the European Journal of Public Health - Oxford Press - 2012

https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article/22/1/7/489927

13 minutes ago, sucit said:

Trump can do whatever he needs to do to win. Joe Biden is an invalid. 

Agree.  And I love your signature - so true.  

12 minutes ago, chessman said:

So if the experts/sources don't agree doesn't it make sense to take the most cautious approach?

Get an opinion and try to justify it - until then stay away from forums where people share their opinions.

59 minutes ago, simple1 said:

OK, but again I ask you what exactly has trump achieved with the South China Sea issue?

You will not find it on CNN or MSNBC that is for sure. Read my earlier statements - Trump has done way more than Obuma (nothing) - you even listed some of them yourself in your links (eg. Taiwan Travel Act).  Lets just agree that Trump has done some things and Obima did nothing much.

23 minutes ago, simple1 said:

What exactly has trump achieved with the South China Sea issue?

 

The Trump administration wants to build a rules-based and democracy-led regional order but seems to have no idea how. And instead of trying to figure that out, it has placed strategic issues on the back burner—for example, it downgraded its participation in the recent Asia–Pacific summits in Bangkok—and focused on bilateral trade deals. Not surprisingly, this approach has done nothing to curb China’s territorial revisionism,

 

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/americas-feeble-indo-pacific-strategy/

I wrote a really good reply to this ???? - but the idiot at MSoft who developed keyboard 'smart keys'  and did not allow them to be deactivated, yet again failed to realise old men are clumsy when typing - somehow I pressed the 2-3 wrong keys and Chrome completely shut down and I lost everything.

Shorter version.  The Institute is a pro-Defence supporting organisation. They want more US involvement in SEAsia which of course leads to more business for them - they are still hurting after Obama cut back things so much. 

One example of their 'agenda' - they claim US did not do enough after passing Taiwan Travel Act. But look at what that Act was - from Wikipedia:  The law is considered a substantial upgrade to Taiwan–United States relations, making them official though still sub-diplomatic. As such, the law was harshly criticized by the government of the People's Republic of China in Beijing (which had formally protested the bill through ambassador Cui Tiankai, demanding it not pass) for violating the One-China principle, which holds that Taiwan is an inalienable sovereign part of China.

Same for a lot of other stuff in the report - they want more involvement of US in SEAsia - good for business.

30 minutes ago, abrahamzvi said:

I wonder where you get such definite information from. Maybe you can inform us?

Another one !!!   My expert/source versus your expert/source.

Form an opinion mate and give it to us with some reasons why you have that opinion. 

That is what a forum is about - an exchange of optinions and ideas and thoughts - it is not a fight between who has the best expert/source.

8 minutes ago, nickmondo said:

i think this topic is ridiculous!

while there are still new cases every day, to open now would be ridiculous.

for me to expand more on this is a waste of my time.

 

Then go away

13 minutes ago, Tropposurfer said:

Where is your proof Italy and Spain are reporting deaths attributed to Covid19 where they aren't due to Covid 19?

Are you suggesting that the nearly 14% death rate (today's figures from Sky News) said as being from Covid in Italy is untrue?

That the hospitals, doctors, hospital administrators, mayors, national health rep's, W.H.O., the world media, news reporters on the ground, are lying about the death toll from this virus? Why would folks do that .... are you suggesting for some underhand reasons?

My next question to ALL is why would countries like Spain and Italy, as tabled examples, place such hard national containment processes with such huge economic, social ramifications on their people unless they were very, very scared/worried of worst scenario's befalling their nations? I'd suggest the death toll at present is just that! 

Are you suggesting something nefarious in these numbers reported by Western nations, some conspiratorial, self-aggrandizing undercurrent (ex Thailand and what you say is Thai propensity, nay, habitual need to over-inflate/tell porky pies for ego and power/control reasons)? 

I said it is not a high percentage of the deaths - such as deaths by suicide - and I said google it mate - fact but not that high a percentage.  And they are not lying as such - they are over reporting (Italy) or under reporting (Thailand).

You can decide you do not to agree with my opinions and provide some information/opinion as to what you believe.

But demanding I prove my opinion to you is the fall back of the 'opinion deficient' unthinker - just as it would be for me to state that you have to show me proof that any opinion of yours is correct.

EG- In my opinion it will rain tomorrow - and you want proof??  

6 hours ago, simple1 said:

Usual one sided arguments. As an example of a more balanced comprehension...

Obama and Trump lost the South China Sea.

https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/pROZEkOqkt7KurDNk13ECJ/Barack-Obama-and-Donald-Trump-lost-the-South-China-Sea.html

Good article - but a little bit light on Obama's role in the disaster.  It was written in June 2018 and Trump was in Office for 1.5 years - and yet he is blamed in the article as much as Obama who did nothing for 8 years.  Since then Trump has played hardball a lot more than Obama ever did - but the article is right in that Trump has put China's role about Trade, Nth Korea and Iran (Isreal) above the China sea problem. And all of those issues are more important - but Trump Defence Admin regularly sends warships through and warplanes over the areas claimed by China and has made it very clear in the UN and elsewhere that USA will nebver support China's claims and will veto any such resolution.  Remember, China has spent 3 decades buying 'influence' inside many international bodies - they are playing the 'long game'.  Meanwhile we in the west are struggling with the media highlighting the here and now issues and 3-4 year election cycles - we have a lot of catching up to do. 

1 hour ago, heybuz said:

Media,left wing has Murdoch changed his spots most of the media on oz is controlled by Murdoch and is definitely not left wing.

Mate things have changed somewhat. Come election time last year they were somewhat neutral - not much positive - that is why it was surprising he won. Not quite as bad as when Trump won when most of the media was pro Clinton, but definitely very surprising.  And as you prtobably know the media TV is very much dominated by ABC who are relentless left wing supporters - and many lazy journos follow their stories.  But overall I would have to say that Murdoch's ownership of newspapers and his influence through them has declined with their readership decline - a lot.

13 hours ago, chessman said:

and if you cannot see how that analogy is apt then I'm not sure you're thinking logically. Or you could back up your claims and show the WHO prediction that with extreme social distancing measures 200 million people would die. Or did you just make that up?

It is easy to find examples of experts who are wrong. But most of them are right, most of the time. Look at the amazing leaps forward our civilization has taken in the last few hundred years, the leaps forward in healthcare, education, technology. That way of thinking has got us where we are, it's not a time to ignore that at a time of crisis. We are standing on the shoulder of giants.

You have again missed the points that Thomas Powell made - experts are often wrong and experts are not always right - and some people think anyone that disagrees with an expert is  bad or wrong.  And I have given you enough examples of incorrect experts - especially those who said Einstein and Darwin were wrong.

So rather than me give you all the proof you need from a certified accredited PHD so you can think or do anything in your life correctly, let me ask you to provide one 'expert' on the Covid19 virus and how to deal with it.

You cannot - from virologists to health authorities - they are all new to this unique once in a lifetime occurence - what you do have is the opinions of 'experts' in related fields - there are not PHDs in Covid19 - there are not Degrees in Covid19 - they will come years from now, when they study the evidence - the real hindsighted proven evidence. Right now it is opinions - and many experts in related fields who are non-aligned (can speak out and not lose job/grant) are saying that the lockdowns should be eased soon - others are saying they should never have been 'all in' as herd immunity was the best solution. You are 'hearing' the loud ones - the WHO and CDC 'aligned' ones - just watch when things reveal thermselves to be not as bad and lockdowns can be eased - they will suddenly quickly echo the official - and year/s from now when they realsie herd immunity was the best solution watch them change their position.

3 minutes ago, chessman said:

This argument is like a man riding a motorbike at 100mph everywhere and one day his friend sees him and tells him he should slow down because he will kill himself. So the man slows down but is really inconvenienced because he has less time and is often late to meet his girlfriend. Then one day his girlfriend snaps at the friend and says "you're an idiot, you said he would die but look, he's still alive!"

If you can, please try to answer my question above about that expert. I'm genuinely curious.

 

If that is your logic - a stupid person speeding on a motorbike analogy, compared to a Govt mandated shutdown for a virus that is killing less people than the seasonal flu (so far) then you have a logic gap that I cannot bridge - and I certainly will not try any further. 

But let me leave you with this:  What can we be certain of from history? That experts have been wrong innumerable times, by vast amounts, and with catastrophic results. Yet today there are still people who think that anyone who disagrees with them must be either bad or not know what he is talking about.   Thomas Powell

And this:  Einstein was wrong - from 1905 until 1919 when his theory was proven to be correct by Eddlestone, the vast majority of experts (educated in Newton's Laws) stated emphatically that Einstein was wrong - and it was obvious that a patent clerk could not be correct against Professors and such like educated experts.  The same thing was said by the experts about Darwin.

Mate - become more of a skeptic - the experts only know that they have been taught - they cannot see outside their limited scope of education - many refuse to even try - and none of them have been forced out of a job in 2020 ????

42 minutes ago, KhaoNiaw said:

Would it not be easier for people with genuine interest to simply post a few links to the experts whose views you are presenting? 

So you want to play my expert versus your expert eh?

I dont play that game - skeptics like me form their own views from many inputs.

What is Skepticism?
Skepticism is a dynamic attitude to the world around us. It is not a dogmatic approach restricted by “accepted wisdom”, but a serious and sincere appraisal of claims of how the world works.

The mantra of skepticism is - show me the evidence.

And there is no evidence that Covid is going to kill up to 200 million people as predicted by WHO and was the main basis upon which the shutdowns were implemented worldwide.

51 minutes ago, chessman said:

This is true, but they have a better record than random people posting on the internet!

You dont seem to realise that in this case you are the random.

Take a look - plenty of experts out there posting claims the covid shutdown is unwarranted.