mfd101

11 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Norway, Denmark and Austria are already announcing plans to ease restrictions, but now to the interesting part. Denmark hit the apex using only about 15% of their ICU bed capacity. They are now debating that the spread was too slow, so it seems the end game is to create a controlled herd immunity. 

Elderly will still have to stay isolated until a effective vaccine is rolled out.

Similar discussion beginning in Australia, as the number of new infections is turning downwards.

The idea is that, as you emerge from the peak period, you allow a lower level of infection to spread slowly thru the population thru controlled deconfinements - not overwhelming medical/hospital resources, but effectively immunizing the population as a whole over time, with vulnerable groups (those with the risk health factors - blood pressure, diabetes, obesity, heart & lung problems) remaining in semi-confinement until vaccines are available.

In Western countries other than Usofa those with the risk health factors tend to be those over 60.

7 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

Have you repented ??

 

I am innocent so I cannot repent.

When my forthcoming trial comes up (for being a heroin-addicted Muslim rapist & terrorist) I'm hoping the jurors on my case will be at least half-rational.

Of course I'm trying to avoid publicity too, so there won't be too many concerned citizens outside the courtroom shouting Kill'em Hang'em Death's too good forem!

Astonishing how many highly qualified lawyers there are here on TV. Very experienced in the criminal law of the English-speaking countries and with full understanding of the concept of proof of guilt 'beyond a reasonable doubt'.

And of course, if you can't get him on one accusation, given who he is & what he represents, well you might as well get him on another.

Perhaps they should offer their services to the Thai government. Their skills would be greatly appreciated here.

31 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

He was not acquitted, it was found the decision of the jury was unsound, and the Appeals Court (Vic) was unsound.

Had he been "acquitted" he would not have been convicted in the first case

 

Here is the relevant extract from the High Court's announcement today (not the full judgment which is not yet available as far as I am aware).

H I G H C O U R T O F A U S T R A L I APlease direct enquiries to Ben Wickham, Senior Executive Deputy RegistrarTelephone: (02) 6270 6893Fax: (02) 6270 6868 Email: enquiries@hcourt.gov.auWebsite: www.hcourt.gov.au PELLv THE QUEEN[2020] HCA 12Today, the High Courtgranted special leave to appealagainst a decision of the Court of Appeal of the Supreme Court of Victoriaandunanimouslyallowed the appeal. The High Courtfound that the jury, acting rationallyon the whole of the evidence, ought to have entertained a doubt astothe applicant's guilt with respect to each of the offencesfor which he was convicted,andordered that the convictions be quashed and that verdicts of acquittal be entered in their place.

Not a bad idea really. A permanent and enforced curfew from, say, 2100 to 0500 could raise life expectancy at birth by several years ... But then, why not just make it 24 hrs a day? Could make a world of difference.

8 hours ago, bristolboy said:

Actually, age is the overriding factor in deaths. But that risk is compounded by various pre-existing conditions and lessened by the lack of them:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

I think you have cause & effect round the wrong way.

When it's over, I plan to turn over in my grave.

3 hours ago, ChipButty said:

I'll be looking a bit like that my wife has some relatives in the army and he recommended the one they use they are in certain regiment where they have to do it every 2 weeks

My b/f when a conscript had the duty of running the sheers over the heads of all the conscripts within reach. Now we're getting close - another week, I think - & I'll be putting him to the test for the first time.

1 hour ago, parafareno said:

what about if somebody coughs* like that bus driver who died after somebody coughed at him

The R0 number is an average, across thousands or millions of cases ...

Short of vaccines the only thing that works is the clean hands and, above all, social distancing which reduces the R0 number to less than 1. If you can achieve that, the virus dies out quite quickly. As long as the number is above 1, then it continues to spread.

People could always try living inside their own head. Or would that be too radical a change?

1 hour ago, anto said:

Hope its more interesting than her usual Christmas day ,sleep inducing message.

I'm wondering whether I should have a shave and put on some clothes for the occasion.

Here at the end of the road in darkest south Surin, not much change really.

We were doing brunch take-aways at the nearest PTT instead of the usual sit-down but they seem to have closed entirely now.

B/F has learned to wash his hands about 3 times a day (as opposed to practically never). Wears a mask reluctantly when out. Family - 2 adults & assorted children & adolescents - arrives every day from the farm 40km away to do current 'works' around the place (new khlong along the back & new chook house & yard) but no masks, no washing, just low-productivity labour and lots of eating their way thru my budget ... Life goes on and the plowman homeward plods his weary way.

7 hours ago, Asquith Production said:

I would urge everyone to check their bank balances. Last Wednesday 25th March  when I used the ATM of a well known bank it said it was unable to communicate. Eventually after trying about 4 times throughout the day  at different ATMs I went into the bank only to find that when my bank book was updated 5000thb had been deducted from my balance on one of my attempts of getting money from an ATM. Its taken a week but they have reimbursed me. The point being if I had not gone into the bank and made the bank book up I wouldnt have noticed.

We had the same experience here in Surin. Reimbursement requested at counter an hour later, repaid several days later.

Even 'clean-looking' people can be infected! If you're going to have her come to your place, even if it's only once a week, you need to be sure she knows the rules re hand washing (before, during & after) & you need to supervise and ENFORCE them.

Otherwise dismissed for the duration.

Hard not to wonder how some members of H. sapiens manage to live long enough to reproduce.

The mortality rate is deaths/total infected.

Given that most people recover from the disease, but recovery takes up to 2 or 3 weeks, then - as new infections start to flatten out because of prevention measures - recoveries will keep on increasing and eventually far outrun infections. Thus the 'fatality rate' as measured today is mostly just a statistical artifact of time: early on you have many infections & few recoveries. Mostly now the fatality rate will improve steadily, whatever further we do

An article from The Times in today's Australian says that analysis of the Wuhan experience shows the following pre-existing risk factors for contracting a SERIOUS dose of coronavirus requiring hospitalization. They are IN ORDER: high blood pressure, diabetes, heart disease, lung problems, overweight (BMI 30+), being male (ie lower antiviral immune responses). 

In most countries in which we are interested 'age' appears as a factor, but that's mostly because many people (but not all) collect one or more of these risk factors as they get older. Which implies that age itself is not a risk factor. It's the underlying ill health that's the problem.

The principal & fascinating exception - but which rather proves the point - is the 'exceptional nation', Usofa, where 40% of those hospitalized to date have been aged 20-54. I guess Usofan life expectancy - lower than any other 'Western' country - is not so surprising after all ...