jas007

I didn't "pull out" of anything. I take every penny I can get my hands on and double down. I just bought more stocks a few days ago. Whatever nonsense is going on in the market is only temporary. Otherwise, I just paid some bills and transferred some money to Thailand, leaving me with a grand total of cash in the US bank account of about $50. I don't need any more than that there, and I certainly am doing OK here in Thailand. I think I also have some small amount in a few other banks accounts there, but nothing much that matters. And in the middle of the month, I'll get a Social Security payment. I'll use that to pay off a credit card that I've used in the meantime to buy junk here. Groceries and so on, along with payment for a few streaming services. No interest due, so long as I do that. Any remaining money - into more stocks.

I have to agree with dinsdale. You don't seem to know what you're talking about or refuse to answer questions you don't like. You have yet to respond to my question about the DNA sequence patented by Moderna in 2016. And while you're thinking about that, maybe you should look up which US government department or agencies bought and paid for Moderna's gain of function research beginning in 2011. There's currently some ongoing litigation about the ownership of the patents, but rest assured, the research was bought and paid for by the US government. I could go on all day about that, but I think it would be over your head.

I don't disagree, and. over the longer term, in a static world, US firms would begin to feel the pinch, along with the economy as a whole. But, over time, the world adjusts and tariff wars come and go. This one will be over long before the situation becomes critical.

Not too many people have a crystal ball, and certainly not me. In understand all about the complexity of supply chains and the difficulties involved in undoing what was assembled over a period of decades. I guess my main point is that China is on a short fuse. The propaganda would have us believe otherwise, but I don't think they can outlast the US Fed, and, so long as Trump doesn't reverse course, he's on a winning path.

Both countries? Ukraine and Russia. And as I understood Trump's initial thinking, the idea was for the USA and Russia to take and mine the mineral deposits spanning both countries and share in the proceeds. Russia gets a cut and the US take's its share as repayment for the money invested in the war effort. The situation reminds me of the scene in The Godfather where Sollozo meets with the Godfather in a bid to finance his drug business. In exchange for the Godfather's support, Sollozo says he'll "take care of the Tattaglias out of his end." The same kind of deal is suggested here. Ruthless and transactional. In the process, Ukraine loses. It may not be fair, but where is it written that the world is a fair place? I apologize if I haven't kept up with the latest news. In my mind, this war ended long ago.

So, who do you pay for all this "information"? Do you have a Bloomberg Terminal? Having access to both sides of the story is great, if you can actually get it. I wouldn't be so proud, though, of not having an X account. What are you afraid of? That you might encounter a little bit of the truth now and then? X accounts are free. If you have such an open mind, why not read what people have to say? Or, if you want, you can only read what people you "follow" have to say. Pretty simple. You can both have an X account and insulate yourself from reading anything from anyone who might not agree with you.

It's called the CPI for a reason. And the C stands for "consumer." And in the US economy, consumers don't shop for a billion items. They shop for food, housing, gasoline, and they pay their monthly bills, including bills for various types of insurance and for energy. They don't have much choice. It's that, or a tent on the sidewalk somewhere. Prices in the grocery stores are not increasing by a rate of only 3.1%. Try adding 20 points to that number and you'd be in the right ballpark. As for housing? LOL Did you know that the CPI does not include actual housing costs? Instead, the BLS uses a figure called "Owner Equivalent Rent" which is derived, in part, by asking owners what they think it would cost to rent their property. And typically, owners underestimate the cost, so the results aren't too accurate. Anyway you slice it, it's a scam to exclude real long term housing costs. But it sure does help hide the reality faced by consumers on a day-to-day basis. Look here, don't look there. Nothing to see here. Move along. That's the game they play. "Look, we shopped for a billion items, and we conclude inflation is under control." Something like that, right? And let's not forget health insurance and property insurance, both of which are through the roof at present and show no signs of slowing down. Different reasons for increases in each, but a big part of every consumer's budget, for sure. Except for the people who are uninsured and just don't care. Maybe they're the real winners? Lots of people are just partying on, as if they don't have a care in the world. Credit card balances increase every month, and people are buying groceries on a "buy now pay later" plan. Even for food they have delivered, they can do that. Want a pizza delivered? No problem. Just four easy payments. No problem if you pay on time, but if you don't check the interest rate. So, pretend, if you want, that the government isn't, at a minimum, distorting the truth. Just don't tell Joe Six Pack everything is fine.

He doesn't understand. He's got some numbers that he thinks prove his case, but fails to realize the numbers don't really tell the whole story. Was the testing even valid? How were the deaths counted? And that's just the beginning. He want's to talk about people "recovering" from COVID? But what does that mean, really? Maybe their "long COVID" is simply an immune system destroyed by the jabs? Anyway, without knowing who was really infected and who wasn't, it's all just conjecture. Pick some numbers that correlate with your theory and tell everyone to "connect the dots."

As I understand it, the mineral deposits are in both countries and it's Trump's plan to jointly exploit those resources with Russia. I'm not sure Zelenskyy will have much to say about it when all is said and done.

Currently, I'm not using any kind of margin, so I don't have much to worry about in terms of short term fluctuations. Nerve-wracking? I really don't worry, at this point. I guess WWIII could upset my plans, but if that happens, it won't matter anyway. Unless the USD loses 90% of its value against the Thai baht, I can do without any of my investment money, so I'm thinking I'm OK there. The bottom line for me: it's not very likely that I lose money in the market, long term. I might make some adjustments along the way, but just as to the proper mix of stocks. And yes, I could be wrong about everything.

You're welcome. Just watch and wait. Time travel is possible, by the way. Not that I've been there, but I can think for myself and I can read.

The futures are now higher still. S&P. 500 is at 5645.050, the Dow is 41,009, and NASDAQ 19.948. Meta and Microsoft had good earnings, So I guess that helped. Also, the USDX is trending higher and oil is dropping. Anyway, the market is always a leading indicator, so maybe it's clear sailing for Trump, at least for the time being. I remain fully invested, but for the money I have in a Thai bank.

Some people think it's already happening. Publicly, they maintain that they won't back down, and yet privately they've established a large list of items that are exempt from tariffs. This list is widely circulated in China.

First, anyone in the US will tell you that government CPI numbers are BS. All a person has to do is go shopping once in a while. So it's not as if the government isn't capable of distorting reality. They have a lot of experience doing just that. Will that practice continue under Trump? Probably. It makes his life easier, I'm sure, not having to pay retirees fairly. The system is already bankrupt and they're trying to save it, if possible. As for other government statistics? Unless I was hallucinating, I do think I've heard news stories about recent revisions to government data oriiginally released during the Biden administration. To be sure, that kind of thing can occasionally be required, but in these cases, it was characterized as more of a systemic thing based on a past pattern or practice where the Biden administration wished to portray things in a good light. As for Trump's understanding of the trade balance in the context of the World Reserve Currency? You keep bringing that up as if repeating the same nonsense over and over somehow makes it true. It's common knowledge how it all works and is now part and parcel of economic theory. No "proof" is necessary. It's called the Triffin Dilemma. Trump knows, his advisors know, everyone knows. There are even formulas and frameworks published for understanding the dilemma and why it's considered part and parcel of having the world reserve currency. If I may use some AI to assist here (emphasis mine). Or, if this gets deleted, go to Grok or Perplexity and ask it to explain why the Triffin dilemma is part and parcel of having the world reserve currency. The Triffin Dilemma, identified by economist Robert Triffin in the 1960s, highlights a fundamental conflict for a country whose currency serves as the global reserve currency. This conflict arises between domestic economic stability and international obligations to provide liquidity. Below, I’ll explain the dilemma, outline proposed "formulas" (solutions or strategies) to address it, and clarify why it’s an inherent issue for the world reserve currency issuer. Note that the term "formulas" in this context refers to proposed solutions or frameworks, as there are no literal mathematical equations for resolving the dilemma. -- The Triffin Dilemma emerges when a national currency, like the U.S. dollar, is the global reserve currency, meaning it’s widely held by foreign governments and central banks for international trade, debt settlement, and reserves. To meet global demand for this currency, the issuing country must supply enough of it, typically by running trade or balance of payments deficits (spending more abroad than it earns). However, persistent deficits can erode confidence in the currency’s value, leading to economic instability both domestically and globally. This creates a paradox: 1. **International Obligation**: The reserve currency country must provide sufficient liquidity (its currency) to support global trade and economic growth. This often requires running trade deficits, as dollars flow abroad through imports or investments. 2. **Domestic Stability**: Persistent deficits increase the country’s debt and can weaken the currency’s value, causing inflation or loss of confidence, which conflicts with domestic goals like price stability and economic competitiveness. The dilemma was particularly evident under the Bretton Woods system (1944–1971), where the U.S. dollar was pegged to gold, and other currencies were pegged to the dollar. The U.S. had to supply dollars to meet global demand, but this led to a "dollar glut" that strained its gold reserves, culminating in the Nixon Shock of 1971, when the U.S. suspended dollar-to-gold convertibility. Even today, in a fiat currency system, the dilemma persists as the U.S. runs chronic trade deficits to supply dollars, raising concerns about debt sustainability.[] ### Why the Triffin Dilemma is Part and Parcel of Having the World Reserve Currency The Triffin Dilemma is inherent to the role of a global reserve currency because of the dual role the currency plays: 1. **Global Public Good**: A reserve currency acts as an international public good, facilitating trade, investment, and reserve accumulation worldwide. The issuing country must supply enough currency to meet this demand, which often exceeds domestic needs. This supply typically comes through trade deficits, as the country imports more than it exports, sending currency abroad. 2. **Domestic Constraints**: Running persistent deficits to supply the world with currency can undermine the issuing country’s economic health. It may lead to: - **Debt Accumulation**: Chronic deficits increase external debt, as seen with the U.S., where foreign-held federal debt exceeds $7.6 trillion as of Q3 2023 - **Loss of Confidence**: If deficits grow too large, foreign holders may doubt the currency’s stability, potentially triggering a currency crisis 3. **No Escape from the Trade-Off**: The issuing country cannot simultaneously maintain a strong currency (for domestic stability) and provide unlimited liquidity (for global needs) without risking imbalances. If it reduces deficits to stabilize its economy, global liquidity shrinks, potentially slowing world trade and growth. If it continues deficits, it risks devaluing its currency and losing reserve status. This tension was historically evident in the Bretton Woods collapse and remains relevant today, as the U.S. dollar’s dominance (about 60% of global currency reserves) requires ongoing deficits, contributing to a debt-to-GDP ratio projected to hit 150% by 2040. The dilemma is "part and parcel" because any country issuing the global reserve currency faces this conflict, regardless of the monetary system --- Conclusion: The Triffin Dilemma is an inherent challenge for any country issuing the global reserve currency, as it must balance domestic stability against the international need for liquidity. This conflict, rooted in the need to run deficits to supply currency, risks debt accumulation, inflation, and loss of confidence. Proposed solutions—global currency, multi-currency system, gold standard, digital currency, or enhanced coordination—offer ways to mitigate the dilemma but come with significant challenges. The U.S. dollar’s continued dominance underscores the dilemma’s relevance, but its persistence suggests a need for systemic reform to ensure long-term global economic stability.

Either to you or to another poster, I explained why this issue doesn't much matter. China produces machine tools that are only suitable for work not requiring great precision. For that, even the Chinese know better than to use their own equipment. They use CNC machines from Europe, Japan, and the USA. As for the machines purchased from China by manufacturers in the USA? Surely you must realize that this type of machine doesn't wear out and need replacement every other week. They can last for years. So, if certain manufacturers can't get their hands on replacements for the time being, so what? And if some factories want to relocate and need new machinery, they'll have to just wait or find another source. The US economy will not grind to a halt. Not by a long shot, and in any event, China and the USA will have a deal by then, I believe. So the entire "issue" exists only in your head, not in reality.

The last time I looked, there was a work-around available by way of the Sarawak MM2H program. The requirements for that are the same as they always were, and once approved, you can travel and live anywhere in Malaysia, although I think you're supposed to maintain a residence in Sarawak. Maybe that has now changed?

It's good to hear there's a poster here who recognizes that government statistics are nothing more than fiction. It's not just inflation, though, although that's what consumers notice. Imagine the damage that has been done, over the years, to retirees with Social Security and pension payments that are indexed to the official inflation rate. For example, the government might say that the CPI rose 3.1% last year and that's the increase you get. And yet that amounts to a loss in purchasing power over the year, considering the real inflation rate. Year after year of the same nonsense and pretty soon retirees in America have a real problem. I retired in 2006 and I'm living in Thailand, so I'm not as much affected as I could be. I also have other sources of income, in any event. Still, not everyone is so lucky. Had I stayed in the USA, I'd be much worse off today than I was in 2006, in terms of just my pension and Social Security. I should probably go back and do a comparison of USA costs. Then vs. now. I was in Thailand as of late 2006, but I don't really remember what things cost back then. I know Baht Buses were only 10 baht, like now. Street food was 29 baht in places. Now it's 50. Rents were more or less the same, although it's hard to tell in a tourist area. Over the years, I've been back and forth.

Normally, I make a real effort to eat healthy, but once in a while, I order a pizza for delivery. I know it's not healthy. If I had an oven and wanted to fool around, I could probably made some good sauce from scratch. No sugar. And I could probably make healthy dough for the crust. Maybe someday I'll be back in a place with a real kitchen.

As a medical doctor who "happily" administered the COVID-19 jabs to patients, was this before or after it was found that there was a genetic sequence in the SARS-CoV-2 virus that exactly matched a a 3,300-nucleotide genetic segment patented by Moderna in February of 2016? The sequence in question is a 19-nucleotide RNA sequence found in the virus’s furin cleavage site (FCS). This feature of the virus enhances its ability to infect human cells. So, before we even reach the issue of whether a "lab leak" was involved or not, perhaps you should consider the very real possibility of a genetically engineered virus? And just maybe, the possibility that this virus was released accidentally on purpose? An international team of researchers estimated the probability of this viral sequence arising by natural evolution as something on the order of 1 in 3 trillion, although some argue that this could be just a coincidence. That would be quite the coincidence, I think. So, what do we have, really? Behind door A, a genetically engineered virus containing a sequence patented by Moderna in 2016 that would occur naturally in only one of every three trillion rolls of the dice. Or, behind Door B, we have a mere fluke. A mere coincidence. Moderna patents a viral sequence in 2016, and yet, through a very very lucky roll of the cosmic dice, that same sequence shows up in the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Nothing to see here. Move along. I think I'll go with what's behind Door A.

I know more about it than you would possibly believe.

She may be a bit looney, but I'd feel more comfortable with her as President than I would with Harris. What's the rumored ticket? Sanders/AOC or AOC/Sanders? I'm pretty sure Hillary will be out of any future race for President, so Sanders may have a chance.

That's nice, but sort of beside the point. For purposes of this supposed stand-off between Xi and Trump, what matters is staying power. And in my mind, the Fed can and will keep printing money for as long as it takes for China to come to the table with some real concessions. Actually, that's what Trump seems to want, in any event, right? More money printing. A lower dollar. A competitive edge for US exporters. All Trump has to do is stay the course. The supposed stand-off between Trump and Powell is a sideshow. The Fed Put is always there. That's policy. At some point, printing more and more money is counterproductive, but I think Xi will be in trouble long before that happens. China already has trouble in its manufacturing sector, and its real estate market has crashed. Mortgage lenders are either on life support out have been nationalized. And whatever is going on, the US markets are now supposedly reflecting an easing of trade tensions, especially in the aftermarket today. I didn't see any specific news, but the markets always seem to sniff things out.

I think you have a selective memory problem and do not understand how money printing and inflation go hand in hand, how inflation develops, and the relationship between bank reserves, credit expansion or contraction, and inflation or deflation in the economy. And you certainly have a problem with taking phony government statistics at face value. In any event, there's usually a time lag involved as the new dollars leave the banking system and bleed into the consumer and business economy. As so, the trillions of new dollars that came into existence during Biden's term are, to this day, affecting prices. Inflation can be "sticky," as they say. Prices go up, but merchants are often reluctant to lower them for any number of reasons. I could go into that, but you can look it up. And I think I explained to you the other day about Chinese-made machine tools. Assuming that we're talking about high precision CNC machines tools, there is no "big chunk" of them that come from China into the USA. Even in China, only 6% of the CNC machine tools they use there are made in China. They don't even use their own machines, for the most part, as the ones they manufacture are not known for precision or accuracy. Instead, they primarily use CNC machine tools manufactured in Germany, Switzerland, Japan, and the USA. They use Chinese-made CNC machines to manufacture low and middle grade parts where precision and accuracy are not so important. But according to you, even though China knows better than to use the CNC equipment they manufacture, for some reason US manufacturers are clamoring to get their hand of a a supposedly "big chunk" of Chinese machine tools? LOL And even if you're talking about manufacturers in the USA who routinely use low-end Chinese machine tools, the immediate need for a "big chunk" of those is questionable. They're not the kind of thing that you use once and then throw it away. They can last for years before needing replacement. This trade war stand-off will be over long before US manufacturers are hurt by a shortage of low-end Chinese machine tools.

First of all, before Trump took over, the Biden Administration was issuing phony statistics on just about everything. They wanted everyone to think everything was "fine." That's why the phony numbers mow need revision, after the fact. The lies are being corrected. If you don't know that, you should.

Well, it's not that far fetched to blame Biden. Trump hasn't been around long enough to cause too much trouble. Anyway, the issue isn't who caused the problem, the issue is that some people didn't even know there was a problem. Of course the economy is in trouble. All you have to do is look at the news every day. It's not rocket science.