jas007

I'm not making any moral judgments about right and wrong. I'm just explaining how the world works. The USA is as guilty of this type of behavior as any other country. And in this case, Trump realizes the futility of trying to be the world's policeman. As for who "started" the Ukraine war? We all know that story. The Neocons, Victoria Nuland, the 2014 overthrow of a democratically elected government by way of Neocon meddling, etc. That's their typical mode of operation. Do you need a list? I don't like it any more than you do, but I'm not the one in charge. I haven't been running the show for the past 75 years.

Theoretically, you shouldn't be eating anything for at least a few hours before bed. It's hard to say, though, what you're going through and why. Are you addicted to sugar? Have you tried cutting it out altogether, along with processed food, ultra-processed food, high fructose corn syrup, seed oils, and so on? Have you ever tried a carnivore diet? They say if you're used to sugar and then cut it out, the "hunger" you experience the next few days is just your body craving the sugar it's addicted to. But after a few days, the cravings diminish.

I'll skip all the details, but one time I went to KBank to update my bankbook and get the letter for immigration, and the girl at the bank somehow didn't notice that the bank's computer still had the day before's date. So when they updated my bankbook, it didn't show that day's date. Any, apparently, immigration wanted a copy of the bankbook updated that very day, so I had to go back to the bank and get it fixed. I spent way too much time going back and forth that day.

The "final analysis" of how the world and its countries came to be. In case you haven't noticed, that's the way it works. How many examples do you need? Practically no country on earth wasn't formed by way of some conflict. That's history.

How do you know he won't? Once a war gets started in earnest, there's no telling what will happen. And surely, you must understand why Russia needs a buffer zone. Part of its strategic defense system lies within easy striking distance of any missiles placed in Eastern Ukraine. Hence the sensitivity over NATO, especially after the cancellation of the intermediate range missile nuclear forces (INF) treaty by Trump during his first term. He got some bad advice on that, obviously, but it's all now history. Ukraine is in Russia's back yard and within the Russian sphere of influence. No different than if Russia or China would amass missiles and armies in Tijuana or Juarez, Mexico. The USA wouldn't put up with that for more than a few minutes. It wouldn't even be allowed to happen. So, telling me to "grow some" is telling me that I shouldn't care about the future of humanity. I do, and Im sure about 8 billion other people would agree with me. Crimea is now part of Russia, once again. And parts of the Donbas are now also part of Russia. Territorial nation states have been at war just about forever. That's the way territories are gained and lost. That's the way existing countries have been formed. That's reality. International law is all well and good, but in the final analysis, it doesn't much matter.

How do you know he won't? Once a war gets started in earnest, there's no telling what will happen. And surely, you must understand why Russia needs a buffer zone. Part of its strategic defense system lies within easy striking distance of any missiles placed in Eastern Ukraine. Hence the sensitivity over NATO, especially after the cancellation of the intermediate range missile nuclear forces (INF) treaty by Trump during his first term. He got some bad advice on that, obviously, but it's all now history. Ukraine is in Russia's back yard and within the Russian sphere of influence. No different than if Russia or China would amass missiles and armies in Tijuana or Juarez, Mexico. The USA wouldn't put up with that for more than a few minutes. It wouldn't even be allowed to happen. So, telling me to "grow some" is telling me that I shouldn't care about the future of humanity. I do, and Im sure about 8 billion other people would agree with me. Crimea is now part of Russia, once again. And parts of the Donbas are now also part of Russia. Territorial nation states have been at war just about forever. That's the way territories are gained and lost. That's the way existing countries have been formed. That's reality. International law is all well and good, but in the final analysis, it doesn't much matter.

Maybe you should look at a little history. Look at the history of the region. It's not as if the country of Ukraine has existed forever within borders etched in stone. One upon a time, what is now Kiev was the capital of Kievan Rus’, a slavic state and the ancestor of what is now Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. More recently, Ukraine was a creation of Russia, over the years, but that occurred in stages beginning in 1919, based on a number of factors. That's how Ukraine came to be. Russia drew the map and created the borders. Its existence as a separate country was recognized in 1991, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The history of Crimea is even more convoluted, but was recognized, internationally, as part of Ukraine after the breakup of the Soviet Union. So we have a part of the world in flux, over the years. Now Crimea is back in Russia's hands. Nothing new. I'm pretty sure starting WW III over Crimea would be a dumb thing to do. I also think that about 8 billion people (or whatever the world population is these days) would agree with me.

Maybe you should look at a little history. Look at the history of the region. It's not as if the country of Ukraine has existed forever within borders etched in stone. One upon a time, what is now Kiev was the capital of Kievan Rus’, a slavic state and the ancestor of what is now Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. More recently, Ukraine was a creation of Russia, over the years, but that occurred in stages beginning in 1919, based on a number of factors. That's how Ukraine came to be. Russia drew the map and created the borders. Its existence as a separate country was recognized in 1991, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The history of Crimea is even more convoluted, but was recognized, internationally, as part of Ukraine after the breakup of the Soviet Union. So we have a part of the world in flux, over the years. Now Crimea is back in Russia's hands. Nothing new. I'm pretty sure starting WW III over Crimea would be a dumb thing to do. I also think that about 8 billion people (or whatever the world population is these days) would agree with me.

You really don't understand, and that's something I can't fix. As the saying goes, "You can't fix stupid." I'm sure if 1000 economists somehow joined this forum and posted here, they'd tell you the same thing I've been saying. You can't have the world reserve currency without running a trade deficit. Everyone knows that, and I'm sure Trump does as well.

I'm sure many Ukrainians think they're in a fight for their "motherland." Hence the problem. However, starting WWIII over Crimea is beyond silly. Like it or not, Crimea and much of there Donbas have now been annexed by Russia. That's the reality. Returning it to Ukraine isn't going to happen. As for Zelenskyy? The moment the war ends, he's no longer a dictator. Elections must be held and he'll be out. Anyone looking for Zelenskyy's motivation should consider that simple fact.

If that makes you happy, so be it. Just be aware that all you're doing is making yourself look silly.

I sometimes feel sad when I see people opening business that are obviously doomed to failure. Wishful thinking? Stupidity? Failure to do basic market research? Or, maybe they just don't care and they want to run money through a business, with or without customers.

It's basic stuff. Sort of like the air we breathe containing oxygen. Trump knows. How can he not know? What concerns Trump, as I've said, is the excessively large trade deficit with China. Business as usual didn't work for a number of reasons. Corruption, currency manipulation, the Chinese government support of entire industries, and so on. The system was broken. And if you look up Navarro, the tariff idea was obviously his. He's studied the matter extensively and he's, written books. He's long advocated for tariffs as a means of dealing with China. One of Navarro's books, Death by China, co-authored by Navarro and published in 2011, is supposedly one of Trump's favorite books on the China trade problem. So, well before he was even inaugurated for his first term, Trump must have known how things work. Trump bought into the idea and here we are. You can argue all day as to whether or not tariffs are good idea, but that's beside the point.

You're embarrassing yourself. Repeating the same nonsense over and over doesn't prove your case. Even if we assume, arguendo, that Trump at one time in his life may have believed otherwise, you can be sure that he has now been instructed and knows how it works. Anyone who knows anything about how world trade and the financial markets work knows full well that you cannott have both the world reserve currency and no trade deficit at the same time. It's a fundamental truth and no explanation is necessary. No evidence is necessary. It's part and parcel of the system. Navarro has a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard, and is now a Professor Emeritus at the University of California, Irvine. No one gets to the levels in the academic world without understanding how things work. In fact, no one gets through an entry level course in macroeconomics without knowing how things work. You'd get an "F." And you can pretty much assume every single member of Trump's Cabinet knows how things work. So go ahead, continue to make yourself look silly. I assume you never had a job in the financial world? And if you have any kind of money in the market, I hope you're smart enough to let someone else manage it for you.

I'm currently using the money in the bank method, and the money is actually in a Thai bank. The increase seems like a lot. Will the prior requirements be grandfathered? I'm sure that's what they've done before. If not, I guess I put another million baht in the bank. I could start sending in an increased monthly amount every month, but there's no way I spend that much every month in Thailand. Maybe they're planning on a plunge in the value of the dollar? I wouldn't spend any time worrying about any of this until it actually happens. They'd end up with very few expat retirees.

Despite what some people see to think, the USA and Israel cannot be assured of any success in destroying Iran's nuclear program. The sites are well protected and are scattered all over Iran. And it's unrealistic to assume that Russia and China won't be dragged into the conflict. What happens then is anyone's guess. According to some analysts, the US now has some low yield nukes specifically designed to attack the types of targets that would have to be hit in Iran. And Trump may well use those weapons. A big mistake. Once that genie is out of the bottle, what then? In short, it might be better for the world if this war was avoided.

I'm back on Apple TV+ the last few nights. "Ghosted." OK. Worth watching for the cute girl. "Killers of the Flower Moon." Excellent. Scorsese directed. De Niro and DiCaprio as two of the main characters. It's a long movie. Over three hours, so set aside some time to watch.

Another suspicious suicide?

Using propaganda is one thing. Being a Marxist is something else again. In any event, propaganda works and is a powerful tool. People are brainwashed. There's plenty of evidence of that right in this forum.

You really are embarrassing yourself and you really should just stop. Now you're trying to pretend you didn't say what you said? "Trump may not want that but he doesn't betray much understanding of how the trade works. For instance, he has the crazy notion that if your trade balance runs a deficit, that means you're losing and it's the fault of tariffs." Moreover, a discussion of the world reserve currency is absolutely relevant, regardless of what you seem to think. "And it's not even clear that you understand this issue. What has the US being the world's reserve currency got to do with the basic economic fact of currency flows?" The world reserve currency is central to any discussion of world currency flows and cannot be divorced from the tariff issue or the current negotiations with China and other countries. In short, it isn't simply a question of tariffs and who has a trade deficit, it's a question of the extent to which the trade deficits are out of line with actual trade levels and patterns. Everyone knows or should know that having the world reserve currency goes hand in hand with running a trade deficit. It's called the "Triffin dilemma." It's nothing new in the world of finance and economics and was noted by an economist named Robert Triffifn in the 1960s. So, it's not that the US has a trade deficit with China or any other country. That goes without saying, depending on trade patterns. What matters to Trump and what matters to his advisors is that the extent to which the trade deficit, particularly with China, reflects something more than just the balance of trade. Currency manipulation, for example. Or, governments subsidizing entire industries. Or the theft of intellectual property and the effects of political corruption. In other words, Trump is trying to achieve a level playing field and wants to use tariffs as a tool to accomplish just that. Many economists will tell you that tariffs are a stupid way to proceed, but maybe not. If the system were not broken, it might be worth a shot at trying to make adjustments through more traditional means. If there were no corruption and no continual theft of intellectual property as a business model, traditional diplomacy might work. But none of that has worked in the past and Trump wants to use tariffs. Navarro's idea? Anyway, that's what's happening and that's why we discuss the world reserve currency. Mods edit: Corrected formatting so post can be read.

Katz Deli is down on Houston Street. I think I've been there.That's sort of the neighborhood for that stuff. When I lived there, I could walk down there from Bleecker Street and once in a while, I did. Wander through Little Italy and Chinatown while I was out. Anyway, if you want to spend a fortune on a pastrami sandwich, the place to go is the Carnegie Deli, near Carnegie Hall. It's sort of a tourist trap, but it's an experience. Edit: They say the original Carnegie Deli across from Carnegie Hall closed in 2016, although there's now a Deli with that name in the Madison Square Garden area. I haven't kept up with all the changes. I remember it from the mid 70s. Maybe this link will work. Pastrami sandwich kit: $109.00 https://carnegiedeli.com/collections/pastrami/products/pastrami-sandwich-kit

I don't spend much money to live n the LOS, but then again, I'm a simple case. Without trying to skimp on anything, I think my typical "budget" is around 50K baht, maybe 60K baht, depending. So, not much, and I have lots and lots of money left over every month. You might say I'm here as a political refugee. I won't go into that. Anyway, anyone on a tight budget would be silly to try to live in the USA right now, at least from what I see in the news. Even the so-called "cheap" areas of the country can be a challenge. Can you survive there? Sure. Lots of people do, but that's all you'd be doing on a limited budget. And the weather could be terrible. I've thought about moving to places in Western Europe. Even Eastern Europe would be fine. But all of Europe seems to be in flux right now with a migrant problem, and there are warmongers seemingly itching for a war with Russia. That would end badly for anyone in the vicinity. Maybe it's better to stay in Thailand for the time being. No one bothers me here and I'm hardly suffering. I'm in an oceanfront condo on a tropical beach. A lot of people dream about having that. And there's also Central America and South America. Plenty of places there to retire and sit around for not much money.

Yes, the Japanese market really did take years to reach its old all time high after the high in 1989, but that was an outlier. Today it's a different world. Such a scenario is unlikely. I think the typical length of a US bear market is about 10 months? Something like that. And the typical time from the end of a bear market to a new all time high is perhaps three years in the US? Given the pace of the world these days, I'd say the recovery time will be decreasing, not increasing, for any number of reasons, not the least of which is the advent of AI and the corresponding speed at which financial information is processed and digested by the system.

I don't know anything about Harrisfan, but surely you must realize it's not that big of a deal to make $5000 an hour trading if that's all you want to do every day. It depends on what size bets you're making. Anyway, trading is easy if you can follow simple rules and totally divorce yourself from fear and greed. And that's easier said than done.

Of course other countries run trade deficits. The US isn't the only country on Earth, and it's not necessary to have the world reserve currency to run a trade deficit. Do you even understand that much? It's a simple concept. If I made a list of countries with trade deficits, it would be a long list. Maybe you should look it up. As for "economic models"? What, exactly, does they have to do with whatever point you're trying to make? Economic models are a dime a dozen. Unless you're trying to give me a hard time, you should probably stop. All you're doing is embarrassing yourself. Anyone schooled in economics or finance understands how everything works, at least on a basic level. I'm sure all of Trump's advisors understand, even Navarro. Especially Navarro. He may just have been politically naive to think it would be easy to upend the world order with tariffs.