jas007

Maybe you should look at a little history. Look at the history of the region. It's not as if the country of Ukraine has existed forever within borders etched in stone. One upon a time, what is now Kiev was the capital of Kievan Rus’, a slavic state and the ancestor of what is now Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. More recently, Ukraine was a creation of Russia, over the years, but that occurred in stages beginning in 1919, based on a number of factors. That's how Ukraine came to be. Russia drew the map and created the borders. Its existence as a separate country was recognized in 1991, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The history of Crimea is even more convoluted, but was recognized, internationally, as part of Ukraine after the breakup of the Soviet Union. So we have a part of the world in flux, over the years. Now Crimea is back in Russia's hands. Nothing new. I'm pretty sure starting WW III over Crimea would be a dumb thing to do. I also think that about 8 billion people (or whatever the world population is these days) would agree with me.

You really don't understand, and that's something I can't fix. As the saying goes, "You can't fix stupid." I'm sure if 1000 economists somehow joined this forum and posted here, they'd tell you the same thing I've been saying. You can't have the world reserve currency without running a trade deficit. Everyone knows that, and I'm sure Trump does as well.

I'm sure many Ukrainians think they're in a fight for their "motherland." Hence the problem. However, starting WWIII over Crimea is beyond silly. Like it or not, Crimea and much of there Donbas have now been annexed by Russia. That's the reality. Returning it to Ukraine isn't going to happen. As for Zelenskyy? The moment the war ends, he's no longer a dictator. Elections must be held and he'll be out. Anyone looking for Zelenskyy's motivation should consider that simple fact.

If that makes you happy, so be it. Just be aware that all you're doing is making yourself look silly.

I sometimes feel sad when I see people opening business that are obviously doomed to failure. Wishful thinking? Stupidity? Failure to do basic market research? Or, maybe they just don't care and they want to run money through a business, with or without customers.

It's basic stuff. Sort of like the air we breathe containing oxygen. Trump knows. How can he not know? What concerns Trump, as I've said, is the excessively large trade deficit with China. Business as usual didn't work for a number of reasons. Corruption, currency manipulation, the Chinese government support of entire industries, and so on. The system was broken. And if you look up Navarro, the tariff idea was obviously his. He's studied the matter extensively and he's, written books. He's long advocated for tariffs as a means of dealing with China. One of Navarro's books, Death by China, co-authored by Navarro and published in 2011, is supposedly one of Trump's favorite books on the China trade problem. So, well before he was even inaugurated for his first term, Trump must have known how things work. Trump bought into the idea and here we are. You can argue all day as to whether or not tariffs are good idea, but that's beside the point.

You're embarrassing yourself. Repeating the same nonsense over and over doesn't prove your case. Even if we assume, arguendo, that Trump at one time in his life may have believed otherwise, you can be sure that he has now been instructed and knows how it works. Anyone who knows anything about how world trade and the financial markets work knows full well that you cannott have both the world reserve currency and no trade deficit at the same time. It's a fundamental truth and no explanation is necessary. No evidence is necessary. It's part and parcel of the system. Navarro has a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard, and is now a Professor Emeritus at the University of California, Irvine. No one gets to the levels in the academic world without understanding how things work. In fact, no one gets through an entry level course in macroeconomics without knowing how things work. You'd get an "F." And you can pretty much assume every single member of Trump's Cabinet knows how things work. So go ahead, continue to make yourself look silly. I assume you never had a job in the financial world? And if you have any kind of money in the market, I hope you're smart enough to let someone else manage it for you.

I'm currently using the money in the bank method, and the money is actually in a Thai bank. The increase seems like a lot. Will the prior requirements be grandfathered? I'm sure that's what they've done before. If not, I guess I put another million baht in the bank. I could start sending in an increased monthly amount every month, but there's no way I spend that much every month in Thailand. Maybe they're planning on a plunge in the value of the dollar? I wouldn't spend any time worrying about any of this until it actually happens. They'd end up with very few expat retirees.

Despite what some people see to think, the USA and Israel cannot be assured of any success in destroying Iran's nuclear program. The sites are well protected and are scattered all over Iran. And it's unrealistic to assume that Russia and China won't be dragged into the conflict. What happens then is anyone's guess. According to some analysts, the US now has some low yield nukes specifically designed to attack the types of targets that would have to be hit in Iran. And Trump may well use those weapons. A big mistake. Once that genie is out of the bottle, what then? In short, it might be better for the world if this war was avoided.

I'm back on Apple TV+ the last few nights. "Ghosted." OK. Worth watching for the cute girl. "Killers of the Flower Moon." Excellent. Scorsese directed. De Niro and DiCaprio as two of the main characters. It's a long movie. Over three hours, so set aside some time to watch.

Another suspicious suicide?

Using propaganda is one thing. Being a Marxist is something else again. In any event, propaganda works and is a powerful tool. People are brainwashed. There's plenty of evidence of that right in this forum.

You really are embarrassing yourself and you really should just stop. Now you're trying to pretend you didn't say what you said? "Trump may not want that but he doesn't betray much understanding of how the trade works. For instance, he has the crazy notion that if your trade balance runs a deficit, that means you're losing and it's the fault of tariffs." Moreover, a discussion of the world reserve currency is absolutely relevant, regardless of what you seem to think. "And it's not even clear that you understand this issue. What has the US being the world's reserve currency got to do with the basic economic fact of currency flows?" The world reserve currency is central to any discussion of world currency flows and cannot be divorced from the tariff issue or the current negotiations with China and other countries. In short, it isn't simply a question of tariffs and who has a trade deficit, it's a question of the extent to which the trade deficits are out of line with actual trade levels and patterns. Everyone knows or should know that having the world reserve currency goes hand in hand with running a trade deficit. It's called the "Triffin dilemma." It's nothing new in the world of finance and economics and was noted by an economist named Robert Triffifn in the 1960s. So, it's not that the US has a trade deficit with China or any other country. That goes without saying, depending on trade patterns. What matters to Trump and what matters to his advisors is that the extent to which the trade deficit, particularly with China, reflects something more than just the balance of trade. Currency manipulation, for example. Or, governments subsidizing entire industries. Or the theft of intellectual property and the effects of political corruption. In other words, Trump is trying to achieve a level playing field and wants to use tariffs as a tool to accomplish just that. Many economists will tell you that tariffs are a stupid way to proceed, but maybe not. If the system were not broken, it might be worth a shot at trying to make adjustments through more traditional means. If there were no corruption and no continual theft of intellectual property as a business model, traditional diplomacy might work. But none of that has worked in the past and Trump wants to use tariffs. Navarro's idea? Anyway, that's what's happening and that's why we discuss the world reserve currency. Mods edit: Corrected formatting so post can be read.

Katz Deli is down on Houston Street. I think I've been there.That's sort of the neighborhood for that stuff. When I lived there, I could walk down there from Bleecker Street and once in a while, I did. Wander through Little Italy and Chinatown while I was out. Anyway, if you want to spend a fortune on a pastrami sandwich, the place to go is the Carnegie Deli, near Carnegie Hall. It's sort of a tourist trap, but it's an experience. Edit: They say the original Carnegie Deli across from Carnegie Hall closed in 2016, although there's now a Deli with that name in the Madison Square Garden area. I haven't kept up with all the changes. I remember it from the mid 70s. Maybe this link will work. Pastrami sandwich kit: $109.00 https://carnegiedeli.com/collections/pastrami/products/pastrami-sandwich-kit

I don't spend much money to live n the LOS, but then again, I'm a simple case. Without trying to skimp on anything, I think my typical "budget" is around 50K baht, maybe 60K baht, depending. So, not much, and I have lots and lots of money left over every month. You might say I'm here as a political refugee. I won't go into that. Anyway, anyone on a tight budget would be silly to try to live in the USA right now, at least from what I see in the news. Even the so-called "cheap" areas of the country can be a challenge. Can you survive there? Sure. Lots of people do, but that's all you'd be doing on a limited budget. And the weather could be terrible. I've thought about moving to places in Western Europe. Even Eastern Europe would be fine. But all of Europe seems to be in flux right now with a migrant problem, and there are warmongers seemingly itching for a war with Russia. That would end badly for anyone in the vicinity. Maybe it's better to stay in Thailand for the time being. No one bothers me here and I'm hardly suffering. I'm in an oceanfront condo on a tropical beach. A lot of people dream about having that. And there's also Central America and South America. Plenty of places there to retire and sit around for not much money.

Yes, the Japanese market really did take years to reach its old all time high after the high in 1989, but that was an outlier. Today it's a different world. Such a scenario is unlikely. I think the typical length of a US bear market is about 10 months? Something like that. And the typical time from the end of a bear market to a new all time high is perhaps three years in the US? Given the pace of the world these days, I'd say the recovery time will be decreasing, not increasing, for any number of reasons, not the least of which is the advent of AI and the corresponding speed at which financial information is processed and digested by the system.

I don't know anything about Harrisfan, but surely you must realize it's not that big of a deal to make $5000 an hour trading if that's all you want to do every day. It depends on what size bets you're making. Anyway, trading is easy if you can follow simple rules and totally divorce yourself from fear and greed. And that's easier said than done.

Of course other countries run trade deficits. The US isn't the only country on Earth, and it's not necessary to have the world reserve currency to run a trade deficit. Do you even understand that much? It's a simple concept. If I made a list of countries with trade deficits, it would be a long list. Maybe you should look it up. As for "economic models"? What, exactly, does they have to do with whatever point you're trying to make? Economic models are a dime a dozen. Unless you're trying to give me a hard time, you should probably stop. All you're doing is embarrassing yourself. Anyone schooled in economics or finance understands how everything works, at least on a basic level. I'm sure all of Trump's advisors understand, even Navarro. Especially Navarro. He may just have been politically naive to think it would be easy to upend the world order with tariffs.

For what it's worth, I'm pretty sure you're the one who doesn't understand the "system." You keep using the same mindset, thinking that the system is not dynamic and that you can point to a single issue as "proof" of some point your'e trying to make. And the issue you're trying to point to here couldn't be further off the mark. If you understood anything, you'd know that. The world's reserve currency has just about everything to do with currency flows. Do you even understand the concept of a "world reserve currency"? Such a status for the US dollar means investors around the world need dollars for a variety of reasons. International trade is conducted in dollars. Oil, for example, until recently. Long term contracts are denominated in dollars, and countries often hold US dollar bonds as one of their reserves. Even currencies are trades with the US dollar as the delivery vehicle. Hence a continuing demand for US dollars. Money flows into the US financial markets. Even the stock market is affected as overseas investors park money there. Without the world reserve currency, this flow of money would dry up. That's sort of what's beginning to happen, but the process can take years. Look at the British Pound. It stopped being the World Reserve Currency by way of the Bretton Woods treaty in 1944, but its use persisted around the world for years. Today, it's just 4% or 5% or reservers held around the world. All that money flowing into the US allows people in the US to buy junk made overseas. The US sends out dollars printed by the Fed out of thin air and accumulates a trade deficit in the process. The people in the US get junk made in China or wherever. That's a pretty good deal for some people, until the system breaks down. Eventually, money printing and the resultant interest rate increases eventually cause hyperinflation or very high inflation to the point where it's to longer politically feasible to continue. There are other factors as well, but I'll stop here. Actually, maybe you're just giving me a hard time? Everyone involved in the markets and in the financial system should know this. It goes without saying. Seriously.

Whatever works for you. Maybe you'll get lucky and be able to get back into the market at much lower levels. That's always a distinct possibility. As for having "enough time"? I'm going to be 74 in a few short months, although I still feel fine and don't worry about it too much. For all I know, I'll still be running around in 15 or 20 years. And if I'm not? What does it matter?

That's been my philosophy for the last 2 1/2 years. Every time I get extra cash, it's immediately invested. And it stays that way, regardless. People trying to time the market will likely lose. And when you miss out on big up days, you tend to do much worse than if you just stayed invested in the first place. Just look at the past week or so. People thought the world was about to end. Many sold stocks to "be on the safe side." And now, they're sitting there hoping they can get back in at some point. Maybe they can, or maybe not. And let's not forget the tax complications. Everyone knows where the dollar is headed. The Fed has no real choice, regardless of their public pronouncements.

Mostly wishful thinking on the part of the Wall Street Journal, at least insofar as it pertains to Trump and China. Trump will not fold on China, although I think on both sides there will be some compromise. That's how it has to happen. A total trade embargo is not sustainable, either for China or the USA. If something can't happen, it won't.

I'm not sure where he got the "Marxist" idea, unless he was suggesting that Trump used tactics similar to Hitler's Nazi party during its rise to power by courting working-class, rural voters who felt abandoned. And it worked. Trump is no Marxist, however.

Well, the USDX was dropping for a few days, but it looks like it wants to hang around the 99 range for the time being. Here's a six month chart. Lower than when Trump took office, but maybe it'll stabilize here for a while. Long term, Trump wants a cheaper dollar and he'll probably get it, but vs.. the Thai baht, I'm not too worried.

It's all political theater. Propaganda? Marxist? Everywhere you look these days, the mainstream media is all about propaganda. If it's all over the news around the world, that's because the people who run the mainstream media organizations want it to be there. They placed it there for a reason, and they certainly won't publish anything that's contrary to the narrative. But fortunately, their monopoly is fading away with the rise of small independent journalists. As for Trump? I'm well aware of all the criticisms. That he shoots from the hip. That he's wishy washy. That he has no plan. That his proposed tariffs are counterproductive and not an answer to the complex problems that exist. Even the normally "crazy" talking heads think he's crazy and ill-informed. Still, right now, he's the President and I think it's relevant to focus on what comes next. How will it all play out? That's the more interesting way to approach it all. I also think that, for various reasons, "business as usual" failed. It wasn't working. Too many corrupt politicians? That's part of it, for sure. Anyway, the failed system left itself wide open for Trump or someone like him to come along and win. The voters wanted a fix and he promised one. And so, he's now President.