jas007

Remember George from Seinfeld? https://youtu.be/1Y_6fZGSOQI?si=cC_4j--ObDE9-4yZ

Correct.

You think Krugman and Yellen actually know what they're talking about? They'r'e both biased in the extreme. People who think like they do are part of the problem, not part of any viable solution.

My guess is that you'e significantly underestimating the effect of US business on Chinese manufacturing and the Chinese economy as a whole. Even if China "blacklists" every US company, that doesn't tell you much that's useful. What about the indirect effect of the USA as a customer through the international supply chains? Lots of the jobs in China rely on the USA as a customer, even if not a direct customer. To make up an example, assume a US company relies on parts supplied by a distributor in Mexico. Will China also blacklist the Mexican distributor just because one of its customers is a US company? If China started doing that, pretty soon most of the Chinese factories would be out of business. Face it: for China, global supply chains are both a blessing and a curse. Retaliation isn't as simple as you seem to think. Don't forget, China is already on the brink. Unless, of course, you believe all the propaganda generated by the Globalists. One by one, Trump will slowly line up countries that are willing to negotiate about tariffs. To believe that the entire world will somehow abandon the USA and somehow get along without it and the world's reserve currency is delusional.

It's something to keep an eye on for sure, as there are limits to what the markets will tolerate, over the short term. On the other hand, the US dollar does not exist in a vacuum. Around the world, central banks are all playing the same debt-based game, to a degree. I see that Thailand is now preparing a "stimulus package" to deal with the effects of the trade war. On the whole, I'm not too worried about the Thai/US Dollar exchange rate, going forward, at least for the next year or two. Can exchange rates fluctuate? Sure. But so what? That happens on a regular basis. Just never think that the Thai baht can't also be affected by the effects of money printing.

Your body needs an adequate amount of the right kind of sleep, for sure. But if you're looking for a "healer," look into fasting. As for sleep? It's possible that you're not getting the right kind of sleep, even if you "sleep" all night. For example, people with sleep apnea never get a good night's sleep. That's why they have to wear special equipment when they sleep. Maybe you need some sort of device for tracking your sleep. Not only the duration of the sleep, but the type of sleep. I have a watch that tracks sleep and a couple of apps on my phone that analyze the data. You might be surprised at how thorough it is. And how much they can tell about the quality of your sleep and your overall health.

I'm fairly certain I never wrote any of that matter you seem to think I wrote. Can you point me to the specific post or posts?

For purposes of the West's Central Banking System, where fiat currencies are all debt based, the bond market always rules. Unless, of course, a person is intent on destroying the US dollar and the Western world. Either you know that, or you don't. That's what's so surprising to me. People seemed to think otherwise. People seemed to think Trump would willingly destroy the system, and with it the US dollar. No way.

Let's assume you're correct, for the purpose of discussion. So what? At this point, the election is over, Trump is the President of the USA, and the people on the left, the media propaganda machine, and many people on this board seem to think that arguing that tariffs are stupid will "fix" the world's problems. These same people offer no solutions. Unless "Trump is an idiot" is some sort of solution. I think not. But it does serve the purpose of those whose only agenda is to "get Trump." If that's not sophomoric, I'm not sure what is.

But that's the kind of thing Trump would always say, right? That's his mindset. A new beginning for America. "Liberation day" when the tariffs were announced. Everything is great or will be soon.

That's the problem Trump rrecently addressed, in a nutshell. He was asked by the press about the tariffs and the pause, and he said that "someone had to do it." Years and years of "business s usual," which is what you seem to be suggesting, got the country into the mess it's in today. The budget deficit and the national debt are never really addressed. Instead, people talk about a lot, but end up doing nothing. No one acts. Well, Trump acted. Will it work? Who knows? But I think there's some chance. Business as usual is no longer an option.

As an investor, if you're not cool, like a little Fonzi, that's what happens to you, much of the time. They don't shoot you though, they just take all your money and there you are, broke and trying to figure out who to blame.

Most people, including most people posting on this thread, can't see the forrest for the trees primarily because they've been well and truly brainwashed by the mainstream media/propaganda machine or, they're simply not too bright and they don't understand how the stock market works. To make matters worse for them, they have no experience whatsoever in thinking for themselves. And so they're confused. In their mind, the only thing that they can come up with is "Trump is an idiot." That's what the media machine is telling them, and so that's what they think. The situation is still unfolding and nobody knows haw it will all turn out. In any event, I feel sorry for anyone who fell victim to the fear mongers spreading fear and hate in the financial markets. It's all part of a mainstream media propaganda campaign to "get Trump." Many investors lost money over the last few days because they were convinced the sky was falling and Trump's tariffs would result in catastrophe. They lost money they might never recover. Did they sell at the bottom, only to miss the next leg up in an ongoing bull market? No one knows, but what's important to realize that Wall Street operates on fear and greed and they fell for the fear campaign. Did Trump cause their losses? Hardly. Do I think Trump is an "idiot"? Trump isn't the issue.Tariffs are not the issue. They never were. The real issue is debt. Unsustainable US debt. The bond market has been telling everyone that for weeks, and in the investing world, the bond market dwarfs the stock market and is the only thing that really matters, at the end of the day. I'm not here to give financial advice, but I learned a long time ago that, as an investor, the only way to succeed is to be cool, like a little Fonzie.

The "job" pf the stock market is to separate as many people as possible from their money. And one thing you can be sure of: as soon as "everyone" thinks one particular thing is going to happen and they bet accordingly, that one thing will not happen. The market also moves money from impatient people to the patient people. Did Warren Buffet say something like that? My guess, from looking at all the red in the stock markets around the world during the last day or two, is that the world financial markets aren't going to collapse. Quite the contrary. We could be at the beginning of a new bull leg up, thanks to all the cheap money being injected into the banks and into bonds.

The White House denied the claim and the markets pulled back, but we didn't see a rout like many people were predicting. Instead, it was up and down all day. After hours, it's up again. All green on what I watch, except for Thai baht which has strengthened a tiny bit against the dollar. Anyway, Trump doesn't like "fake news." He'll take every opportunity he can find to call them on it. As for getting out of the market six months ago? You missed some major gains, I think. That's the problem with trying to time the market. You can miss some of the best gains you'll ever see, and if you miss those you don't do so well, long term, if you ever get back in. I had one stock that was up more than 20X over the past few years, so I took a small bit off the table on that one on which I had to pay long term capital gains taxes. Otherwise, I haven't sold a thing. 99.999 percent of my net worth is fully invested and will stay that way, regardless. If the world doesn't end, I win, longer term. If the world financial system collapses or the world ends, what does it matter? Either way I don't have to worry. Remember the famous line from "Risky Business"? "Every once in a while you have to say What the ....." Miles advice to Joel about taking risks and seizing opportunities. Anyway, that's what I say, as so far, it's working.

I think you confuse being "anti-American" with the willingness of the Chinese people to put up with continuing financial chaos based on internal Chinese policies. At the end of the day, they're Chinese and live in China. They know full well who is causing their problems, and it isn't Donald Trump. Anyway, we all get to find out. If there's a war over Taiwan, all bets are off. Otherwise, I think China blinks first.

Consider the source.

Just sit back, watch the chaos unfold, and maybe learn a thing or two. Right now, China is probably in the process of dumping some US treasuries. That's their little fit about Trump and the fact that they might have to compete on a level playing field. Anyway, that's why we saw an increase in the US 10 year bonds today. Can the Fed do something about that? Absolutely. Will they? Absolutely, if things start to get out of hand. So far, Powell is just posturing for political purposes. But never forget, the Fed's supply of money is infinite. They can buy it all if they want, with the world reserve currency. And at this moment, there's no other currency in the world that can replace the US dollar in terms of liquidity. No way. That's just some people's fantasy. At least for the next five years or so, the dollar will continue to be in demand around the world. As for the "indoctrination" of the Chinese people? You've been reading too much propaganda. By and large, the Chinese people aren't doing so well right now, economically. Their real estate markets are crashing, stores are closing, people aren't spending money like they used to, and people are losing their jobs. And many of them are no fans of the Chinese Communist Party. Long term, China isn't going anywhere. I agree, they'll be around, regardless. But that does not mean that China is holding the winning cards right now. Maybe they'll go to war over Taiwan? That would make trouble for Trump, for sure. The more likely scenario? They drop their retaliatory tariff.

I agree, 100%. especially for a novice trading with little capital. Is it possible to make money as a novice trader? Sure, especially over the short term. But it's almost impossible to beat the market and the market makers, long term. Those guys hedge their bets. They control the market, but they also can't lose because of how they hedge their bets. Sort of like the casinos. The house never pays back 100%, on average. Take a simple example like a slot machine that pays 98%, over time. A person can walk into a casino, sit down at a slot machine, and within 10 minutes hit the jackpot. That can and does happen. But if that same person sits there long enough, reinvesting those same winnings, it's just a matter of time. The house will take their money. So, there's nothing wrong with long term investing in a basket oof stocks. But the key is "long term." even if you don't hit the jackpot, you're likely to still have something, long term. Better than losing.

It's about more than just the actual tariffs. That's why they use the formula they do to determine the tariffs. They want to address extraneous factors, like currency manipulation. That may seem like a joke, but there's some merit to it. I think every nation is guilty of that, to a degree, even the USA.

If you look, you can see all the markets and the news and the oil prices and anything else you want to look at in real time. And when the news flashed about Trump's China threat, the market did reverse a. little, but it didn't tank by any means. The markets are bouncing around all over today, but much of what's going on probably doesn't have much to do with Trump's China threat. The Wall Street people know better than to overreact to that kind of talk, and those are the people running the market.

Again, don't blame lower oil prices. Blame the overall economy. Do oil prices affect banks and oil stockholders? Yes, but that's a drop in the bucket compared to consumer spending and manufacturing. That's the real economy Find me a consumer that doesn't do better with lower oil prices. Find me a manufacturing firm that doesn't do better with lower oil prices. You probably can't.

I don't think so. Lower oil prices don't "destroy wealth," except maybe the wealth of the big banks that own oil stocks or the people who own oil stocks, but otherwise, the economy runs on oil. The cheaper the better. It's the lifeblood of the economy. Diesel fuel, heating oil, gasoline, chemical manufacturing. Cheap oil stimulates the economy. It's just that simple. As I said, though, the economy itself may be "destroying" wealth, but don't blame oil prices.

After he did that, the stock market started to tank again, but it has since bounced back a little. The dollar index has also recovered. China will fold. They're in more trouble than many people seem to think. Then again, Trump may just be making idol threats.

No matter how you look at it, lower oil prices stimulate the economy. For sure, the reason why prices are lower can vary - some good, some bad. But still, whatever else is going on, lower oil prices are better for the economy than higher oil prices. Right now, the world economy is so fragile that it simply could not survive the oil prices we'd see if the Straits of Hormuz were to be closed, for example. I'm addressing the USA economy, primarily. I'm sure Russia probably doesn't like lower oil prices. Ditto for Saudi Arabia and the other oil exporting nations.