SmartyMarty

22 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Thailand’s Total COVID Case Count Now Exceeds That of China?

 

Statistics Used by the Government Say Yes, Reality Says Likely No

 

Famous American author Mark Twain once made the now well-known observation – “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.”

 

That’s probably an aphorism worth remembering today with the news, depending which source is used, that Thailand’s official tally of total COVID cases, now at 93,794, has either surpassed or soon will surpass the comparable official cumulative COVID case total from China.

 

If it seems too improbable to be true that Thailand, a smaller country of only 70 million people, would somehow exceed the total COVID case count of China, the world’s most populous country with 1.4 billion people where the pandemic began, that’s probably because in all likelihood despite the statistics, it’s simply not true.

 

Even so, several widely quoted gatherers of officially reported COVID statistics tell a different story. The U.S. tracking company Worldometer as of Wednesday had China with 90,799 cumulative COVID cases, a total Thailand far surpassed with the 4,887 new cases reported Thursday to reach a total of 93,794.

 

Worldometer happens to be the outside source the Thai government uses for its own publicly issued reports of how the country is faring with COVID cases compared to other world countries. Prior to Thursday’s update, Worldometer had China and Thailand ranked 96th and 98th, respectively, among 200+ countries worldwide for total COVID cases.

 

Meanwhile, the more widely cited Johns Hopkins University of Medicine in the U.S. has its stats for the two countries that suggest Thailand is less than a week away from equaling or surpassing China. That’s because Johns Hopkins has a higher tally of nearly 103,000 total cases for China compared to Worldometer.

 

In real life, the two countries present an odd and usual contrast in COVID experiences. China became the poster country for COVID after getting hit hard at the outset and then apparently recovering. Thailand, on the other hand, was largely regarded as an almost miracle country for largely avoiding COVID, until a major outbreak began last month and is continuing now.

 

As for the comparative statistics, researchers have long maintained that China’s official stats on COVID cases and deaths have likely been massively undercounted, in part due to government suppression and also to the public chaos that hit China and especially Wuhan at the start of the pandemic.

 

“Nobody believes China’s numbers,” said one researcher as quoted in the U.S. news outlet Time last year. Varying estimates have suggested that China’s real toll of COVID cases since the beginning could be anywhere from three to ten times higher than the official numbers.

 

Unlike last year in Wuhan China, there’s no indication that crematoriums in Thailand are running around the clock to dispose of dead bodies, nor have there been public spectacles of masses of sick people overrunning Thai hospitals, though available hospital beds in Bangkok lately have been increasingly hard to find.

 

Whereas China’s official COVID case counts exploded in early 2020 and then quickly dropped off and have remained low, Thailand went through most of last year with comparatively few cases and deaths until a so-called third wave outbreak hit at the beginning of last month.

 

Just since April 1, Thailand has officially recorded more than 60,000 of its 90,000-plus COVID cases and 392 of its 486 deaths through Wednesday. While China lately has been reporting about a dozen new cases per day, according to Worldometer, Thailand lately has been averaging about 2,000 cases per day.

 

Even with that, there are some locals who wonder whether Thailand too has been failing to identify and record all of its COVID cases due the lack of a widespread, nationwide testing program and other impediments. Thus, what largely remains to track the COVID pandemic in Thailand are…the statistics.

 

we can speculate all we want about china's numbers, but we'll never know for sure. 

I know for a fact that Sinovac has failed spectacularly in Colombia where covid is rampant. I’d rather go without than take this particular variant of so-called vaccine 

I feel very sorry for all those, both here and overseas, caught up in this economic disaster through no fault of their own.

yet another muppet totally unsuited to their job.

What's wrong with pretending you're someone else? Pinnocchio has been doing it for a while now.