hammered

I dont know enough of this story to comment, but it would seem he was the initial source of wealth and power for the entire family.

That should count for something, no ?

I agree, and I wouldn't be surprised if the children have boxes of cash stashed away. I was irked because of the assumption that other family members would be quick to cough up 15million baht to help out. It was malicious to intimate that a sister in law who by coincidence is an elected official would run over to pay the money to a non blood relative. My experience is that the wealthier the Thai family, the greater the likelihood there will be acrimonious relationships between relatives. I suppose its one of those things one needs to experience first hand. In that regard, Thais are quite like westerners,

Anyone who has ever followed the sagas of some of the famous Thai very wealthy family inheritances and the dramas and deaths that surround them would certainly agree with you. This family do though seem to be an exception and very tight

I think the level of interest in this case among the ordinary Thai people is underestimated by those on this board. With people I know this was far bigger than the pardon (boring old red-yellow nonsense again) and the interest in seeing a (senior) member of the bureaucracy get at least publically humiliated even if it doesnt go anywhere (not many think it will) seems to appeal to people accustomed to being exploited by government officials, and lets not forget that while polticians can be puinished through the ballot box by people and publically harangued these days and while politicians do at least around election time and some other moments dish out some largesse, these things can never ever be said about government officials which may explain the interest in the case and the shear public enjoyment it seems of the squirming face loss.

The ordinary Thai people don't really give a dam_n. the ordinary Thai people are currently lining up along the roads outside the rice mills, trying to sell their crop for the government guaranteed price, only to be told the mill isn't buying, or is giving a fraction of the "guaranteed" price, and going home after sitting in line all day with 11 baht per kilo of long grain rice, or 15 baht per kilo of jasmine, when the government promised 15 and 20 baht per kilo respectively. I suggest you get out of your little micro red area of Chonburi and head upcountry to see the hardships the ordinary Thai people are facing.

Oh but I do and when I talk about those I know I include areas of rural lowe rnorth as well as a mix of working and middle class Chonburi. People do enjoy these things and discuss them and it isnt about red or yellow but about people. Of course peopel are facing hardships but that doesnt mean they dont discuss other things and it doesnt mean they are even going to mildly consider the Democrats as a better option even if their rice scheme encouraged not growing rice and just claiming what could be grown on the measured land if you were lucky enough to have the land papers in your own hand.

It was a boring predictable an ineffective assault on government by a single opposition party, which the government side also managed to underperform on by not bothering to respond much. Nobody was going to change their mind anyway. And any political damage that could have befallen the government has been at least offset by Sukhumband.

If only your Cambridge Deans could see you now. They'd be so proud of the way they'd taught you how to defend an argument. A strawman argument at that. Bravo!

Hinc lucem et pocula sacra

Dons not deans.Deans, for those who have no experience of elite universities, have responsibility for administration and are often clergymen.Dons are the academics.

If you have the slightest bit of evidence that Supoth lived within his salary, let's hear it.The onus of proof, given the prevalence of corruption in the Thai upper bureaucracy, is actually on the deniers such as yourself.

Or you can continue with personal invective and avoid the issue.

I think the level of interest in this case among the ordinary Thai people is underestimated by those on this board. With people I know this was far bigger than the pardon (boring old red-yellow nonsense again) and the interest in seeing a (senior) member of the bureaucracy get at least publically humiliated even if it doesnt go anywhere (not many think it will) seems to appeal to people accustomed to being exploited by government officials, and lets not forget that while polticians can be puinished through the ballot box by people and publically harangued these days and while politicians do at least around election time and some other moments dish out some largesse, these things can never ever be said about government officials which may explain the interest in the case and the shear public enjoyment it seems of the squirming face loss.

Next year industry will be making up for lost time and there will be loads of infrastrcuture projects to repair broken things. Businesses that close but still provided a necessary local service will be replaced by new ones. There will be plenty of work and money around, probably more than enough to make up for the few things that wont recover. The NESDB figure was always going to drop in the reality of the recovery period and vast amount that will spent during it and the vast amount of getting supply back to match demand for various industries not to mention that the low inventory approach has probably just been displaced.

They will have another coup to stop the truth coming out.

Unfortunately this one will not be pretty.

I truly hope not. The prevailing mood I see is not anywhere near supporting such an action and I fear you are right about it not being pretty.

Well no surprise about who would oppose the idea.

Whether it is practical or legally possible or not is another matter, but in the context of political conflict, recent articles on the deaths of the two journalists mentioning witness testimony that is going to be very very embarrassing to say the least to these two parties if it is as mentioned in respecatbale foreign media and the thai legal system being questioned heavily outside the country this just adds pressure and everyone knows Thaksins strategy of it doesnt have to be like this as we can all forgive each other.

Also slip it in with the anti-Thaksinistas fantasy of the floods wrecking the popualrity of PTP while delivering a huge boost to the Democrats having turned out to be yet another of their secret desires without any actual substance (PTP should give Sukhumband an honour for service rendered) as they now realise and we can see the game heating up again.

And then slip in the splits between the liberal and ulra-conservative anti-Thaksinistas that ole Abhisit is currently doing his best to try and paper over, it gets even more interesting.

And what about Thaksins war on drugs +2500 dead?

Bet the Ultra Red Shirtinistas would opose that 100%!!!!

It was a terrible thing, but was supported by nearly everyone in the country and for certain reasons absolutely no serious politician will take that anywhere near an international court as we have seen.

No, he means the inevitable civil war that result from Thaksin's return.

Personally, I think it is essential we prolong that as long as possible. Some reds here may thirst for blood, but I would rather things stay basically non violent for as long as they can. History makes it quite obvious that the only thing which will mobilize the anti Thaksin forces is the threat of Thaksin himself. Eliminate him, and most people would simply find a way to resolve their differences.

Exactly. Where were the street protests against the current government when they won the election? Where are the grenade and bomb attacks? Where are the fanatics making speeches and mobilising their paid support to occupy and burn Bangkok? There are none. This government has been left to get on with the business of trying to run the country and either succeed or fail according to their own actions. The opposition has limited itself to the parliamentary process in monitoring and censuring the government's moves. What will change this? As seen by the reaction to the attempt to pardon Thaksin, that would do so. The PAD would mobilise, the multicoloured shirts would mobilise, the reds would counter mobilise and back we'd go to blood on the streets. What makes one man so special that he is worth the resulting deaths and economic destruction? Answers anyone?

He has made himself a symbol of the oppressed. Of course it isnt true but he has carefully positioned himself that way and he has been well aided by his utterly incompetent enemies who by every move they have made, have reinforced the notion while contiunally seeing their own support drain

There is also a difference between the PAD now and then. Back then it had quite large support as it was seen as an anti-corruption movement and the new style Abhisit Dems were considered clean. Now the PAD has split many times and is seen as a small facist irrelevence that annoyed the middle classes by blocking the airport. This image was even perpetuated by the Dems and their handlers when they assumed power and thought if we sacrifice the PAD then all the silly people upcountry will think we are fair when we put the boot into the reds, which was a misguided policy as they have learned over time. The multicoloureds are an extreme nationalist group led by an extreme nationalist and they have little support. For any of these now small groups to put a demo togther and they would love to do so, they will need the Dems to ship in the southerners to keep things going daytime and the private sector that still supports that side to encourage their workforces to attend after the sun sets backed by a bunch of guards recruited from the vocational school mobs. This side has no mass street movement as they have destroyed it themselves. Also if you add the people who want Thaksin to return to the people who dont give a toss either way, you have a monsterous majority. Playing the numbers game is something this side will want to avoid.

Now the reds are stronger, more organised and less feeling threatened than they were during Ahisits time and they could no doubt put huge numbers on the streets for a long time if they needed to, and certainly outnumber the other side by a huge margin.

This is something even the businesses of Bangkok that support the anti-Thaksinistas are not going to want to see, so money to fund a multi-colioured/PAD demo is less likely and those demos take money to organise and logistically supply and control.

And reality is that the Yingluck government is seen by pretty much all as the legitimate choice of the people with no shenanigans. And the Dems have pretty much been abandoned by all and are seen as responsible for the mess as anyone else. As someone wrote in one of the English language newspapers before the coup we saw how bad Thaksin could be, since the coup we have seen how bad his enemies can be. It is no longer all about Thaksin and that in itself makes it a lot harder to reach resolution because apaprt form it being about people wanting better opportunties, it is also about a vision of Thailand and what the country is and maybe the hardest of all to solve a judgement on Thaksin's enemies, which is something a lot of analysis fails to address

Edited for typos

Well no surprise about who would oppose the idea.

Whether it is practical or legally possible or not is another matter, but in the context of political conflict, recent articles on the deaths of the two journalists mentioning witness testimony that is going to be very very embarrassing to say the least to these two parties if it is as mentioned in respecatbale foreign media and the thai legal system being questioned heavily outside the country this just adds pressure and everyone knows Thaksins strategy of it doesnt have to be like this as we can all forgive each other.

Also slip it in with the anti-Thaksinistas fantasy of the floods wrecking the popualrity of PTP while delivering a huge boost to the Democrats having turned out to be yet another of their secret desires without any actual substance (PTP should give Sukhumband an honour for service rendered) as they now realise and we can see the game heating up again.

And then slip in the splits between the liberal and ulra-conservative anti-Thaksinistas that ole Abhisit is currently doing his best to try and paper over, it gets even more interesting.

This seesm to be heading to the Thai courts if Chalerm is correct. Because of the nature of the cases there will also be intense international scrutiny and a desire to see it go to conclusion whatever the outcome. On top of this is the attempt to use the ICC. Politically this is going to be very interesting and potantially disastrous for some. It is going to be an interesting watch for scholars of Thai politics albeit one bets not to comment on too much.

The thai institutions will resolve it/ international court gambit is a very interesting opening especially at a time when foreign media and bodies seem to be a tad interested in the Thai legal system. It is a classic Thaksin/red play (Im not sure who the masterminds really are)

The ICC gambit is dead in the water until Sunai gets his cohorts to ratify the Rome Statute.

.

That may well be part of the gambit if things move further. A coup for trying to ratify an international agreement would not exactly go down well internatioanlly.

But also rememver this is all in a careful context of we all can forgive each other and reconcile, which Thaksin pushes as his enmeies try to insist it doesnt happen and pile up court cases against him and while his friends try to pile up court csaes inclusing maybe very sensitive international ones against his enemies. The strategy of Thaksin is pretty clear.

15 million isnt exactly a great deal at this level.

This whole case is actually very interesting if you care to follow it with all kinds of people you wouldnt have expected to get hit by bullets getting hit by bullets among a few other rather intriguing details. The whole chain of how the gunman was allegedly arranged was also shall we say somewhat unusual. It will actually be interesting to see this one at court if it ever moves anywhere.

Of course if Kamnan Poh or Vattana or any of the other more famous non-Thaksin fugitives were willing to deliver a bunch of poltical defectors into the Abhisit camp Im sure things would look up for them. However, right now the Abhisit camp is having a few problems even keeping in with its opposition "allies" (no suprise there as no party or politician really likes the hypocritally self righteous Dems), and managed to even start the ball roling on things that have shall we say totally and utterly pissed off the more liberal side of the anti-Thaksin alliance by their outcome.

Jatuporn's tactic is to keep the focus on the Dems/elite side in terms of unfair/unwarranted attacks on him/his side. Over the years it has been a very effective tactic and kept his side party way ahead of the Democrats and has worked well in bringing the the carefully created and manipulated clean Democrat image down into the mud wrestling all the same level, which is probably a lot closer to the truth anyway.

Jatuporn is seen by people (surprisingly to me across the poltical spectrum, but maybe we shouldnt underestimte the intellignec eof the avarage Thai person in understanding poltics better than those who try to manipualte it) as a hardcore (even good hardcore speaker), and he has his own (limited but quite substantial) hardcore following. However, this gives him the freedom poltically to indulge in all kinds of actions and attacks. He doesnt have to come across as following a set of artificial morals or artifical ethics as all of his opponents have to try (very unsuccesfully) to do. He just speaks and acts for "his" people. The media/elite/democrats etc also label the whole red/ptp alliance this way. the interesting part is that PTP/reds dont even waste time trying to fight that but just try to show that the elite/dems/bureaucracy are just as low. They do this fairly succesfully in many many peoples minds. Jatuporn is a leading light in doing this. It is worth understanding the roles the various players play in these games.

This seesm to be heading to the Thai courts if Chalerm is correct. Because of the nature of the cases there will also be intense international scrutiny and a desire to see it go to conclusion whatever the outcome. On top of this is the attempt to use the ICC. Politically this is going to be very interesting and potantially disastrous for some. It is going to be an interesting watch for scholars of Thai politics albeit one bets not to comment on too much.

The thai institutions will resolve it/ international court gambit is a very interesting opening especially at a time when foreign media and bodies seem to be a tad interested in the Thai legal system. It is a classic Thaksin/red play (Im not sure who the masterminds really are)

Great ammo for the red movement

There is the worrying der spiegel article too on the Italain journalist

Months ago even the Nation team were trying to fathom out how if he was intially approved he could then be later unapproved on evidence that was available when approved. The constitutional court has a nice little hot potato here, and of course the reputation of courts is going to be in the limelight yet again. Interestingly most ordinary people on the street seem to know what the game really is whatever faction they tend to side with.

It is the same old game

Thaksin is waiting for the right time. Everyone in Thailand knows this although differnetr groups define it differently. He will however be back andnot in jail. And most of those who oppose him will accept this and not suffer either

What most people miss is that this whole gambit resulted in the ending of the media assault on Yingluck over floods, media fantasising about the miltary and everybody reminded of the what this conflict is about. Now the investigation of corrupto man is the main headlined issue and floods, military and red-yellow and Thaksin are liek the majority want off the fornt page. Does anyone actually think this was by accident? the furious asault on Yingluck is over and the attempt to bring him back in a couple of weeks is over. Back to the same stalemate for now with absolutely nothing changed. The analysis in this article is a mix of propaganda and wishful thinking. Most Thais talk now only about timing.

I actually think that's a great idea! A national referendum, simple yes or no, pardon Thaksin yes or no, binding for life. In other words, if NO, it's over. I don't believe PTP has the Thai-jones to try that. It would be extraordinary and probably not strictly constitutional, but the Thaksin problem is very extraordinary, and it could be a cathartic, final, democrat way to resolve this once and for all.

So you suggest a yes / no referendum. And do you not think that the reds, UDD, pt etc., will go all out (big big money changing hands)to ensure the yes (yes=pardon) vote will win.

Always possible of course that there will also be sweeteners from others to influence the No vote.

In other words it's very doubtful there would be a genuine unflavoured (unpaid) result.

No real details have even been revealed by the various bodies and individuals who have tried to herald the idea of 'reconciliation', and that includes both the paymaster and his clone. Reconciliation is nothing more than a smokescreen to get back to laws which make vote buying etc., easy.

The bottom line is very simple - Thailand will move forward when there is complete respect for the law, and not before. And personally If I had the opportunity I would propose that the current laws on vote buying / corruption / unusual wealth etc., be made much harsher with long-term compulsory jail sentences, lifetime bar from any form of political activity or comment, and public shaming.

Totally agree with you here ... was thinking the same - they will pay for 'yes' or 'no' votes ... and we know who will pay more.

It is not that simple.

Pardon in Thailand is given by 1 man, and that man only.

Pardon is not given by the majority, the majority have no say in such thing.

There is a differnece between pardon and legislative amnesty although both legally can do the same

I actually think that's a great idea! A national referendum, simple yes or no, pardon Thaksin yes or no, binding for life. In other words, if NO, it's over. I don't believe PTP has the Thai-jones to try that. It would be extraordinary and probably not strictly constitutional, but the Thaksin problem is very extraordinary, and it could be a cathartic, final, democrat way to resolve this once and for all.

Th ereferendum is probably the best idea. In a parlaimentary system if the legilature OKs it then it would be constitutional as the legislature is the supreme body in a parlaimentary system and can overturn anyting a government or court decide. I would think though it is more unlikley the elite side would want to see this. That tough is the beauty of a referendum as the people ultimately decide

I'm sure it's all just a big misunderstanding. The original B5 million that Supoth reported missing was, as claimed, his wedding gift and dowry for his daughter.

The other B16 million (or thereabouts) was a wedding gift from Potjaman. I'm not quite sure how the secretary, the maid and the chauffeur fit in the picture (on the groom's side?) but I'm sure a (semi-)plausible explanation will be worked out eventually.

This dude is not close to PTP. I think most people are fully aware of which party selected him

By the way, there is intense, very intense interest in this case. It wont be easy to just disappear it. People get exploited by unelected bureaucrats far far more than by polticians of any description and right across the poltical spectrum people would enjoy seeing some punished

Yellow, red, same thing. It's not the country that's divided, it's the rich oligarchs running it that are divided. They're fighting their battles over who gets the most. Their foot soldiers - or anyone else - aren't going to win either way.

Eventually there will be a public uprising to kick all those clowns out. An Asian Spring.

It will be interesting to see where it goes in the future and likely to be unpredictable. People are now far too politicized for this to all be put back in a box by any political party. The question is at what point are the oligarchs leading their supporters and what point are the peopel pushing the oligarchs. Two things spring to mind:

1. All those upcountry PTP MPs who used the analogy of being a leper by the roadside if they had taken the lucrative route of defecting to another party.

2. The scathing attacks of the PAD when they were abandoned by their allies

I would think by now not everything is as easily controlled by the powerful as it once was

There is also the community radio phenomenon which is avidly listened to by farmers, and rapidly turned off in the presence of strangers. Many of these stations are not heavily tied into movements leaderships as people think

I would also wonder if the actual PTP MPs saw the red villages and now red districts as a positive thing or not.

Brilliant letter showing calmness, reasonableness and willingness to take sacrifice by Thaksin especially when compared to the rabid reactions of his enemies. This letter will go down very well with his supporters and also helps with those in the middle who want ti to all go away by making him look reasonable compared to his never willing to compromise enemies.

The reality is whether Thaksin returns or not isnt going to change more than a few people's lives, but most realise that keeping him outside is going to keep the silliness going on and on, and that does affect lives. Realpolitik

Of course the letter would go down well with his supporters.

Anyone with half a brain would see right through it.

I wouldnt underestimate the intelligence of his supporters and allies

you're talking of those who are in line of getting cronied, lol, expecting their promises made to them to materialize, which would not affect common folks in any way. they all just ask --- WHY?

over 600 dead due to a designed flooding says it all.

An equal and opposite argument could be made for those who vote the other way. However, I would never suggets anyone was stupid for who they support. I find that when you talk to people they have their reasons which make sense even if I dont agree with them. That is the beauty of these things. People can have different ideas and they get resolved at the ballot box

Even Thanong obsessing over the hidden meaning of the letter, while at the same time by doing so promoting and marketing it. Thaksin has moved the whole story in the media again. Im sure Yingluck and oddly enough Sukhumband are both happy while the army, democrat party probably not so. The PAD may also be OK with it considering they would likely have had only a small turn out like the multicoloureds did. Ditto in the council of state who have possibly (we dont know what was going to be proposed we shouldnt forget) dodged a bullet

It is always good to read what Anand says. I note he is in favour of abolishing the council of state and doesnt think the military should be used in politics.