hammered

Brilliant letter showing calmness, reasonableness and willingness to take sacrifice by Thaksin especially when compared to the rabid reactions of his enemies. This letter will go down very well with his supporters and also helps with those in the middle who want ti to all go away by making him look reasonable compared to his never willing to compromise enemies.

The reality is whether Thaksin returns or not isnt going to change more than a few people's lives, but most realise that keeping him outside is going to keep the silliness going on and on, and that does affect lives. Realpolitik

Of course the letter would go down well with his supporters.

Anyone with half a brain would see right through it.

I wouldnt underestimate the intelligence of his supporters and allies

Brilliant letter showing calmness, reasonableness and willingness to take sacrifice by Thaksin especially when compared to the rabid reactions of his enemies. This letter will go down very well with his supporters and also helps with those in the middle who want ti to all go away by making him look reasonable compared to his never willing to compromise enemies.

The reality is whether Thaksin returns or not isnt going to change more than a few people's lives, but most realise that keeping him outside is going to keep the silliness going on and on, and that does affect lives. Realpolitik

I think you may have commited a typo. Did you mean to say "Rabid reactions of his red supporters"? Burn baby burn! Bomb baby bomb!

Its all about PR and this is by any standard a brilliant letter. Even the biggest of Thaksins enemies usually acknowledge what a brilliant PR player he is and lament the inability of his opponents ability at PR and marketing. This is not a comment about whether Thaksin is good or bad but an acknowledgement of a very good manouver. He has on this taken the middle ground. The letter also works in a variety of other levels

There isnt much point in either being rabidly anti or pro Thaksin if yo uask me, but enjoy the poltical games. As I said whether he returns or not isnt going to affect hardly anyone

Brilliant letter showing calmness, reasonableness and willingness to take sacrifice by Thaksin especially when compared to the rabid reactions of his enemies. This letter will go down very well with his supporters and also helps with those in the middle who want ti to all go away by making him look reasonable compared to his never willing to compromise enemies.

The reality is whether Thaksin returns or not isnt going to change more than a few people's lives, but most realise that keeping him outside is going to keep the silliness going on and on, and that does affect lives. Realpolitik

Your opinion in your first paragraph is noted, but I disagree. I think it was a very well-worded Machiavellian letter...my opinion.

As for the second paragraph, you really thing Thaksin's return will only change a FEW people's lives??? Khun T likes to compare himself to Mandela - did his return not change the face of a country? In Mandela's case, it was for the better. In Thaksin's case, it would be for the worse - for virtually the entire country. Only change a few people's lives indeed...for the better; most would be for the worse.

Your post is not up to your usual standards of insight and clarity.

Reality is that most people have far more important things to think about and do than worry about Thaksin. His return to the country or not is hardly going to affect their income, job, family, education, life. Surely that is reality for any poltician when it comes to it. Thaksin's return will affect powerful people both ranged with him and against him and probably in the political and business spheres as well as a bunch of career bureaucrats etc. However, we are talking about a small number of people. The Mandela comparison is very different. That was about the majority getting the vote. In Thailand people already have that. It just affects a political balance but even there it will be limited as his parties win the elections and their policies aimed at throwing things to the majority so they are happy and keep voting for them are not going to change much.

I do wish there were a sarcasm smiley - it applied to the Mandela comparison, I guess you didn't get it. Sorry.

My wife is a social worker who ran an NGO here in Issan. I used to go around to the villages with her, and we heard many - many - horror stories from farmers who got trapped in the Thaksin-sponsored government loans, couldn't pay them back, got into trouble with money-lenders in an effort to repay those loans, and lost their farms and their houses. And that's just within one small province. Suicides occurred because of that program.

And you conveniently forget the lesson that history repeats itself. The extra-judicial killings on the so-called war on drugs, the murders in the South and the escalation of violence there brought out by his ill-designed policies... How can you say it will only affect a few?

And you are correct. History has shown that he "throws things" to those he supported, and withhold "things" from those who did not support him. Remember the tsunami in Phuket?

But keep digging...you'll hit rock bottom eventually.

I am not making a moral point just a political one. There are enough who make the moral points on here when it suits them and not when it doesnt, so I increasingly find it best left alone. The drug war was amazingly more popular than virtually anything else Thaksin did and received support form all kind of places and has faced little internal criticism. I dont agree with that personally but cannot deny the reality. The drug deaths are also by dint nowhere near as unpopular or for a variety of reasons as politically damaging as the deaths caused by the previous regime. Of course there are moral questions about both but that just takes us into how some jusitfy one while condemning the other.

Reality is though the vast majority of people in this country will not be affected if Thaksin is in Thailand or not. The country didnt fall apart when Suchinda was amnestied before even being charged or when Manoon returned unfettered and it goes on despite coupmakers never being punished. Whether the people want Thaksin back is another matter but his allies do have that habit of winning every election they contest without exception and that does suggest something maybe. And to suggest it is anything about upholding law when myriads of powerful lawbreakers including those who overthrew the entire democratic system and ripped up a constitution are never charged is a little bit of a stretch in many people's eyes as is the failure to investigate those who ordered last Mays events.

Political conflict and disagreement and change leads to violence when the institutions to resolve conflict/allow change either don't function, get interfered with, are not accepted by a major player, the rules of are disagreed with or don't exist. That is in no way unique to Thailand. These things are usually overcome in the political sphere either by changing or evolving the mechanisms/rules by a minimum amount to accommodate everyone (conservatism) to more radical changes if recalcitrance takes hold. Repression and authoritarianism rarely are more than a short term solution to hold a line. This is what is happening in the political sphere in Thailand now with a few distractions and characters thrown around to try and muddy things. At the end of the day it can be seen like a resetting of social contract by which people allow governance of themselves. One way or another it will resolve itself. Hopefully it wont be too violent and the major groups and players can all make sacrifice to enable the formation of a consensus broad enough to encompass a majority across the divide.

Gentlemen, it's easy for us Thais to sit and write the future of Thailand. Reality is a completely different case. We can wish for the new blood, but his/her path will not be easy, next to impossible. To come in power, one must possess a couple of key elements: money, connections and the army's approval...unfortunately, the people's approval seems to be the least needed factor when it comes to Thai politics as the aforementioned factors will eventually stop one. We Thais are fed up with the system as it is...the same old faces around and around in an evil cycle. If you think Thaksin & Co and the Dems, BJT, CP + whoever are not the same gang, you are wrong. This country has been run by the same gang/families for a long long time behind the scenes. It's just that Thaksin tries to take it to a whole new level i.e. going against sharing the cake evenly and challenging something that we Thais cannot discuss openly. Red shirts/Yellow shirts? same people at the top (I hope you do remember that Thaksin and Sonthi/Chamlong used to be best pals)...I have been sitting and having dinner and drinks with the lead investigator and prime suspect at the same table...all laughing and enjoying their night out. It's all an act in front of camera and papers...and who suffers from this scheme? The normal Somchai and the foreigners investing in Thailand...

Bottom line is, money is the main corrupting factor in Thailand and there seems to be no cure...it's too embedded into our culture. From the mini mafias running the flowers sold at intersections, from the Kamnans controlling the tiny areas in upcountry, our infamous BiB, the military, schools, BMA, government projects...everywhere, even public donations...Thai's will always find a way to get THB...from small gold fish to the big whale. We do indeed shoot ourselves in our feet. We will be the stagnating country relying on tourism, rice and foreign investment for as long as we can, which is a big shame. We have/had so much potential...Our leaders don't really care about this...but when that milking cow dries up...then what?

I hear what you say.

I think the fundamental problem 1 is :

Face = Money = Power = Respect = Status in Society.

A society that measures ever interpersonal meeting by super subtle weis of respect and face acknowledgment.

Attached problem 2: How you make face is not important.

Making it and showing it are what count.

Far too many see it as OK getting power and money by means that are seen as repellant by most people, because once they have it that wei in public goes much deeper and fewer and fewer ever dispute their plans. It seems to be utterly intoxicating for many.

And consequently not getting it, when you had it and lost it,

or you just believe you deserve it,

rankles at a fundamentally deep personal level.

I remember Prem 'wei'ing Thaksin' at the army leader Anupong's mother's funeral, where he was clearly unwelcome. Prem wei'd Thaksin from the navel while shooting eye daggers at Thaksin for the presumption of invading a sacred and mournful occasion, to get his little face making photo-op, which failed spectacularly.

Thaksin lost much face and of course wants it back plus extra for his pain. Add this to the prevailing cultural Face making / saving paradigm and here we are with more grandiose, and culturally dangerous, ego making BS. from that Kuhn T.

3rd problem is Nationalism.

The nationalistic training from cradle to adulthood that built a 'FORMERLY united Thai People', has lead many to believe that they are somehow better than all other country's peoples, regardless of visible proof to the contrary. Not that anyone is better the other way either, just different, and all countries have nationalism to some extent. Still this fuels a hatred or disrespect for others than is an undercurrent in Thai life in relation to the outside world.

But the problem here is this mixes with face to make people

not listen to alternate ideas because ' they are not Thai Enough'

or it's not the 'Thai Way' ,'They just don't understand the Thai way',etc.

Ok fine it was necessary to make a unified people from crossroads Siam and it's neighbors cousins, back when the nation was founded, but it has gone way too far, and no one dares cool it down lest they be labeled 'not nationalistic enough' a near crime in of itself.

Cousins from all sides are vilified as 'Not Thai' so somehow lesser, which made anyone who joined part of the New Nation, but this has long been unnecessary and a detriment to Thailands growth both internally and internationally.

This is also reflected by the centrally grouped people looking down on Issan people as too Lao/Khemer, etc. and so inferior. Thailands nationalism used to force cultures to a monomaniac singleness that is not reflected in reality It is overlaid as part of nationalism run amok, and is a great factor in the current Red Shirt uprising and Thaksins ability to co-opt them for his own reasons.

Of course making these observations about the culture is not meant in a mean-spirited sense, but as observations to cultural set points as they affect our current state of affairs socially, internationally and internally on political matters.

Interesting stuff. I would also add that there are currently two competing visions both strongly held of what Thailand is

I live in an area where if there is going to be a groundswell against Thaksin there should be substantial anger and outrage. However, the mix of well heeled middle class and working class people I know dont seem to have much of either. Most really dont seem to care whether he comes back or not but there are definitely some who do want him back. Oddly enough I cant even find ex-PAD attenders who are outraged either. The impression I get is that people know he ios coming back and have adjusted accordingly and dont want to see a big fight.

Then again Chonburi certainly isnt anything like the PAD and Dem supporting heartland it was a few years ago. But that really is the point. If the PAD (used to be a lot of PAD support) and Dems (Only managed to retain one MP) have lost a wealthy area like Chonburi, they are in a lot weaker position than before however their media and spokespeople want to spin it. In short the floods (natural disaster) and the Thaksin pardon issue havent changed a thing round here from what I see unlike the May events, which have been compounded by the Dems by not replacing Abhisit.

Brilliant letter showing calmness, reasonableness and willingness to take sacrifice by Thaksin especially when compared to the rabid reactions of his enemies. This letter will go down very well with his supporters and also helps with those in the middle who want ti to all go away by making him look reasonable compared to his never willing to compromise enemies.

The reality is whether Thaksin returns or not isnt going to change more than a few people's lives, but most realise that keeping him outside is going to keep the silliness going on and on, and that does affect lives. Realpolitik

Your opinion in your first paragraph is noted, but I disagree. I think it was a very well-worded Machiavellian letter...my opinion.

As for the second paragraph, you really thing Thaksin's return will only change a FEW people's lives??? Khun T likes to compare himself to Mandela - did his return not change the face of a country? In Mandela's case, it was for the better. In Thaksin's case, it would be for the worse - for virtually the entire country. Only change a few people's lives indeed...for the better; most would be for the worse.

Your post is not up to your usual standards of insight and clarity.

Reality is that most people have far more important things to think about and do than worry about Thaksin. His return to the country or not is hardly going to affect their income, job, family, education, life. Surely that is reality for any poltician when it comes to it. Thaksin's return will affect powerful people both ranged with him and against him and probably in the political and business spheres as well as a bunch of career bureaucrats etc. However, we are talking about a small number of people. The Mandela comparison is very different. That was about the majority getting the vote. In Thailand people already have that. It just affects a political balance but even there it will be limited as his parties win the elections and their policies aimed at throwing things to the majority so they are happy and keep voting for them are not going to change much.

hammered,

Agree 100% with you.... the "middle men" have sucked the country dry for far too long. Wonder if there has been a "factual" study on actually how much the "middle men" have eaten?

It would imho be far more dangerous to try and realistically look at that kind of stuff than trying to overthrow a politician. In many ways I guess the early Thaksin and new money manouvers were to wrest control of this group from the traditional side and it was here they first all fell out. Now things have moved off in several other directions and become a lot more complicated and to some degree ideological

Brilliant letter on level of political analysis. His opponents would far rather the amnesty had been pushed now. Maybe though there never was an amnesty plan. Most of these gambits have subtexts and intentions different from the obvious, and Thaksin is especially good at playing a game many steps ahead of his opponents who usually react to the obvious but miss the more subtle.

Brilliant letter showing calmness, reasonableness and willingness to take sacrifice by Thaksin especially when compared to the rabid reactions of his enemies. This letter will go down very well with his supporters and also helps with those in the middle who want ti to all go away by making him look reasonable compared to his never willing to compromise enemies.

The reality is whether Thaksin returns or not isnt going to change more than a few people's lives, but most realise that keeping him outside is going to keep the silliness going on and on, and that does affect lives. Realpolitik

Aleg,

Not at all, who's promoting lawlessness? Not me... As I sai above, the military is untouchable and always have been in Thai history. The military is not accountable for their actions in civilian society - never has been. And they keep their titles no matter what they have done - unless I'm missing the odd, rare case

@Bucholz, you may have misunderstood me....

Fair enough; let's not hold our breaths for a PTP government to go after corruption thou.

AleG,

I'm sure we ALL would like to see ANY administration go after corruption.... To the best of my knowledge, there NEVER has been an administration willing to do so. Indeed, no need to hold our breath. Corruption has been embedded in Thai society for so long it has turned into a tradition than rather a scourge... A slight side track here... just thinking out loud, but, I wonder how much money the Permanent Secretary of Transport actually had in his house. 200MBaht!!!???

Around where I live the 200M baht case is bigger than the Thaksin issue and far more talked about. It seems the corrupt bureaucrats are despised more than politicians. People seem to want to see punishment in this case and it seems are already convinced the guy is totally guilty. I was actually surprised at the level of feeling over this. Then again I guess most people have suffered at the hands of corrupt officials far more than at the hands of politicians who do at least extend a bit of largesse on occasions or even those populist policy thingies.

Voranai has an excellent analysis in the unmentionable news source today.

The interesting thing is that people chose to comment on this rather than the very very strong backing the US gave publically to this government and to the notion of civilian government which is not really being touched upon inspite of being highly noticeable.

Interesting after Hillary stressed in Thailand that the US supports "this government" and stands behind "Thailand's civilian government". It doesnt sound like the US wants to see any coup like activity. Interesting form a major investor. And it seems a more public touching on of what has been rumoured over the past year or so

The Nation must be really pitching a tent now that the end of November has finally arrived and the annual petition process is underway. Love the headline, too, which is a thoroughly well-thought out piece of BS and not supported by the actual article itself. Thanks, Nation. Let the flames begin...

Both of them denied knowledge of the amnesty. What's wrong the headline?

What's wrong with the headline???? "Tiansford doesn't like it, thats all!!!

I don't think that the "soggy reds" are going to be able to put up much of a fight against their " enraged rainbow coloured opponents" - not unless they start paddling to Bangkok NOW!!!!

Maybe Thaksin will charter all of the planes from Chiang Mai and the North to put up a token resistance to the "fury of the masses"!!!!:jap:.

Do you seriously think that the multicoloureds can gather anywhere near the numbers that the reds can? Are you unaware of the large red minority in Bangkok and the huge red numbers in the provinces surrounding Bangkok? Are you not aware that the last red demo on it s big days was mostly filled with people from Bangkok and surrounding provinces? I actually know quite a few people who used to attend the PAD rallies back in the old days. I can assure not one of those I know will attend a multicoloured or PAD rally this time.

For the multicoured and PAD to get big numbers they will need the Dems to back them and they will also need a lot of money and to reestablish the logisitical links and allegiances the PAD had before. Considering the PAD have split, hate the Democrats, given up on the army and elite that is going to be quite an ask. Considering the extreme right wing politics of the multicoloured leader and the PAD leadership, it is moot how much even the Dems would want to get into bed with them. There is also the little question of how many people including business groups will want the disruption of another colour coded bunch taking over and blocking all kinds of important infrastructure straight after the devastation of the flood especially as they know it will be resisted massively by the red movement and nobody wants to see anyone risk a coup.

Since when do thieves admit to stealing money? Supoj obviously didn't say anything about the 200 million Baht, so why would the thieves? They could have gotten away with it if he didn't say anything, so why report that you stole 200 million?

Looks like another cheap attempt at framing by the Democrats. Sad, sad.

Is there a link to the Democrats ... ... besides in your mind?

I would think BJT more likely. He predates this government and transport was under BJT.

Thaksin is a an exceedingly clever politician playing a long game.

Interesting that "leading figures" is mentioned. That should undercut what is said with the people. "leading figures" dictating everything without any consideration for the lesser or what they think is one thing that seems a lot less accepted than it used to be

Don't know how you can see him as clever.

Any one with a clear mind can see he is a egotistical bully who uses his money to corrupt Thai politicians and drain the Thai money into the Shinawatra's bank account.

Nothing clever about him at all he is an your face type bully.

A clever person you would not even know he was screwing you.

Of course he is clever. He wouldnt still be the most powerful politician (not) in Thailand with huge support including a minority of the elite who cant be coerced away from him, a load of big donor business groups and a government in place that basicially is his if he wasnt clever. I understand people dont like him but to underestimate his ability is a little excessive. Who else would have been able to hold a party together filled with all those factions as they were offered all kind of things to change sides?

Just out of interest (and I hope some of the more politically astute TV members maybe able to chip in with a reply). How many other state / government officials convicted of corruption who are over 60 would be eligible for this proposed royal pardon?

It can't only be Taksin in this category, can it?

What about Vattana and Kamnan Poh? Loads of we love Kamnan Poh car stickers around Chonburi right now. There werent until recently.

Most state and government officials etc convicted of anything get two years or less as up to two years can be suspended and usually is. A little off topic but that is another thing that has undercut court reputation as how Thaksin was treated was never the same as other PMs and he used it very very skillfully to wrap his myth into the reality of what the poor experience at the hands of state institutions

Right so they have added a highly controversial clause to the royal pardon request to seek clemency for 3 people (who we know of). Hmmm

technically they wont have added a clause (we dont actually know what they have done tbh but assuming allegations are correct). They will have removed a clause the previous government wrote in to exclude those convicted of corruption. The added clause was technically from the last government and it was for those who support Thaksin highly controversial to change a pardon to exclude one man especially as the last government had removed the time served condition of the 2007 version. Why did they do that? However, I digress it is like 2 sides of a coin as to what is controversial and what isnt and it depends entirely on what bias people have. It may all be better sorteed out in the legislature which has the power to enact or reject an amnesty. Maybe the council of state will knock the whole pardon recommendation down or maybe the pardon recommendation will just turn out not to include Thaksin in any way and Chalerm has been enjoying winding his opponents into a frenzy and also testing their ability to mobilize, gather support, form alegiances, test loyalties and also see how good the intelligence from within the bureaucracy and military is. Things in this political game are not always what they seem to be

Rumour is that the PAD has booked mobile toilets.

Could be a long protest.

The big problem the PAD have with a long protest is that as soon as the decree is passed on if it actually is and I have my doubts or at least in a Thaksin unfettered way, they can be accused of trying to influence the decision which is a very difficult place to be as they then either have to accept the accusation and continue or step back and show respect. If they continue the reds can use it as justification to hold a counter demo in favour. That whole scenario gets very messy indeed.

Just out of interest (and I hope some of the more politically astute TV members maybe able to chip in with a reply). How many other state / government officials convicted of corruption who are over 60 would be eligible for this proposed royal pardon?

It can't only be Taksin in this category, can it?

What about Vattana and Kamnan Poh? Loads of we love Kamnan Poh car stickers around Chonburi right now. There werent until recently.

Most state and government officials etc convicted of anything get two years or less as up to two years can be suspended and usually is. A little off topic but that is another thing that has undercut court reputation as how Thaksin was treated was never the same as other PMs and he used it very very skillfully to wrap his myth into the reality of what the poor experience at the hands of state institutions

Thaksin is a an exceedingly clever politician playing a long game.

Interesting that "leading figures" is mentioned. That should undercut what is said with the people. "leading figures" dictating everything without any consideration for the lesser or what they think is one thing that seems a lot less accepted than it used to be

Who else are you implying is a fan of civil war. Certainly not me. I am simply trying to get the red support brigade to realize how deadly this amnesty action is going to be. You honestly think the rest of the country that understands how evil Thaksin is will simply take this lying down?

Civil war is coming not because anyone wants it, but because there is little else the red terrorists will understand and accept. Civil war will be terrible. It can be avoided by removing Thaksin. There is no other way.

The red movement is massive and growing. To not accomodate them will be an utter disaster. Most people in this country either want Thaksin back or dont care. Only the smallest group want him to remain out at all costs. He is coming back unless those who despise him can frighten enough of those who dont care into thinking it is going to be hideously violent. That is how realpolitik works in what has become a violent zero sum game from all sides. The government who won the election do not have to scare anyone much as they have at least a vague mandate to enact reconcilliation as they see it. Their opponents lost the arguement and election when they pushed their version of reconcilliation which was rejected. Everyone in the country knew that electing PTP would result in at least an attempt to bring Thaksin back. That is popular with a lot and many dont even think it matters what happens.

That is reality that the anti-Thaksinistas do not want shown. Most people either like the guy or think there are far more important issues. Thaksin is mainly an issue in a very vicious intra-elite war where everyone in the elite has been forced to take sides, that has been complicated by Thaksin very skillfully positioning himself as the accepted champion of those who for too long have not been given a fair opportunity, see the law as always used against them and their kind, are sick of traditional Thai politics and parties and who are wanting change. The real disaster is by fighting Thaksin to utterly alienate this huge mass who are increasingly sympathetic to the red movement that in many ways is well more extreme than Thaksin. Where do this group go if their champion is removed? They certainly aint going anywhere near the Dems or other tradional manipulative parties and to remove a more modern manipulative party that can moderate where it all goes could well be the ultimate disaster. This is now about placating the demands of the many and as we have seen they will not accept the party of their betters doing this even with the biggest debt funded bunch of populist policies that the country has ever seen. So it seems to be either accomodate Thaksin or use massive authoritarianism and repression to keep the people down with no guarantee it will work. To date with every disolution, legal decision, coup, manouver, governmental change the red movement has just grown stronger. The politics of dealing with Thaksin has been a case study in how not to do things and exposed a world where those who used to pull strings and control and manage everything are still playing by their set of rules while the majority of the country, and I mean not only PTP voters, are not. Thailand has changed and is changing still where it will end up who knows but it is going to go way beyond Thaksin now and more and more Thai people see this

Since when do thieves admit to stealing money? Supoj obviously didn't say anything about the 200 million Baht, so why would the thieves? They could have gotten away with it if he didn't say anything, so why report that you stole 200 million?

Looks like another cheap attempt at framing by the Democrats. Sad, sad.

I think youll find the NACC in general and Klannarong especially are not at all what you wopuld call sympathetic to PTP. If they are bais it wouldnt be in that way at all. It could be though that they are doing their jobs and dont care that this dude is actually poltically connected to other parties than PTP. The PTP dont have a monopoly on corruption. And the amount of money that went through the last regime was humongous compared to what has gone through this one in only a few months, so the chances are that any corruption exposed now will tend to be from that period.

How many showed up for the multicoloured rally today? As it isn't reported on I guess the number was a tad on the low side. It must have been really low if the usual papers aren't showing low angle photos to try and make a few hundred look like thousands

As predicted the Dems and their handlers did not impeach the CTP agriculture minister over an issue they were moaning on about as number one priority untikl they discovered it wasnt a PTP minister but a mate of old Banharn who the elite and Dems will do anything o make happy in some vague hope it will one day help them into government.

Interesting that BJT wont touch it, which signals they are mor einterested in being invited back to the table of Shin than lining up for a rerun of Abhisit shows how to lose in really grand style

Poltics is such an interesting game and not about anything other than getting into power/staying in power and who really cares about country or people. Not unique to Thailand either