vinny41

February 2024 Total number of registrations 208,918 including 6,248 EV’s March 2024 Total number of registrations 214,311 including 7,368 EV’s April 2024 Total number of registrations 181,314 including 5,969 EV’s May 2024 Total number of registrations 227,170 including 7,963 EV’s June 2024 Total number of registrations 211,518 including 7,901 EV’s Total number of registrations for period 1st February 2024 to 30th June 2024 for all vehicles 1,043,231 within this number is 35,449 EV’s Total number of registrations for ICE 1,007,782 Total number of registrations for EV’s 35,449 Market Share of EV’s for Total registrations for this period is 3.5% https://web.dlt.go.th/statistics/

Of EV including motorcycles that BMW sold in the same period of 2023 which must have been 678 EV including motorcyles to get to their 40% increase of 950 BMW and Mini cars, as well as motorcycles under the BMW Motorrad brand, are sold in Thailand. Between January and June, BMW Group Thailand saw an over 40% surge in EV sales, with 950 EVs registered during this six-month period.

As I stated you were lucky to sell when you did before MG reduced the price by B100,000 which has a knock on effect with resale values and increases depreciation MG EP Plus was launched November 2021 priced at 998,000 baht Current price is B671,000 which is a 32.7% reduction in price or B327,000

Listing a Car on Guy Fawkes Day 5th November 2023 priced at B699,000 or nearest offer and then listing again on January 21st 2024 at a reduced price of B599,000 and finally selling 30th January 2024 doesn't sound like there was many buyers biting at the B699,000 price November 5th 2023 B699,000 Lucklly it was sold before MG reduced the new price to B671,000

but in real numbers Majority of cars sold this year were ICE vehicles hundred of thousands compared to 24K EV's

Overall maybe 10-11% of the new vehicles purchased still leaves ICE with 89-90% share

Rubbish More ICE vehicles were sold in the last 5 months compared to EV as previously stated if you have 100% market share there is only one way to go

And still very small numbers compared to ICE vehicles

When numbers are low they are always described in % when numbers are high they are described in numbers When Labour announced they are planning to build 1,500,000 houses in the next 5 years they knew they would be laugh at if they published the number in a % term Since ICE vehicles had 100% market share a few years just a single EV sale would support the statement EV sales percentages are rising and legacy cars are falling.

These are registrations figures and do include December 2023 sales For EV sales for 2024 is 23,972 EV 3.0 subsidy ended 31st December 2023 for sales and vehicles needed to be registered by 31st January 2024 Data from the Department of Land Transport indicate that the EV market has not been particularly strong since the beginning of the year. January recorded the highest number of registrations for the year at 13,321 units, driven partly by a rush to register before the January 31 deadline to qualify for benefits under the EV promotion plan, EV 3.0, which offers a 2% excise tax and a subsidy of up to 150,000 baht. This rush led to a sharp decline in registrations the following months. If the cumulative total for the first five months is extrapolated for the entire year, EV sales are expected to be close to 76,000 units, considerably lower than the overall projection of between 100,000 to 130,000 units. So far the market has not met any of the expectations, with numbers falling short of targets, impacting orders and inventory, and initiating a price war. It is anticipated that the price war may intensify further if the economy does not recover and the automobile market does not improve. New EV models are scheduled for release this year, and new entrants are preparing for official launches https://www.nationthailand.com/blogs/business/automobile/40039276

Byd atto3 owner recently posted on the facebook groups that his car value has dropped B650,000 iin 2 years excluding interest charges after BYD recent price reductions he stated that tents unwilling to accept risks of taking EV's until Brands stated no further price reductions he received one private offer of betweeen B500K-B550K offer subject to viewing when asked why low offer buyer indicated that they weren't sure if BYD would lower there prices again so offer was based on that they would lower their prices Depreciation is expected with any car but when the manufacturer reduces the price by up to 32% either to clear stock or generate increased sales that's the big hitter https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=485876037294148&set=a.176402778241477

There was only 40 Nissan leafs for sale when the price was reduced to B959,000 in 2022 https://www.car250.com/all-new-nissan-leaf-ev-2022-0.html

While the move is welcome it is important that the MG owners that are affected by this change read the terms and conditions and the exclusions and understand the term of a lifetime warranty and eol as many people have different interpretations about the meaning of a lifetime warranty

There is a huge difference between the Oil Fuel fund and the subsidy for EV as the Oil fuel fund will be repaid to the Government budget while no repayment for the EV subsidy Diesel fuel is a vital commodity in the industrial and transport sectors. The Oil Fuel Fund’s status report as of March 17 revealed that it is 96.72 billion baht in deficit. Of that, 49.33 billion baht is from the oil account and 46.9 billion baht from the liquid petroleum gas (LPG) account. OFFO has an expectation that the proposed measures will be approved as soon as the price cap measure ends. The fund is due to pay back its first parcel of debt at 30 billion baht in November of this year. https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/policies/40036725 BYD profit in EU is 10x higher than in China and even with new 30% tariffs, still makes 5,000 USD per vehicle, report says BYD makes a profit of 15,400 USD on BYD Seal U in Europe, compared to 1,400 USD in China. https://carnewschina.com/2024/06/13/byd-profit-in-eu-is-10x-higher-than-in-china-and-even-with-new-30-tariffs-still-makes-5000-usd-per-vehicle-report-says/

It will always remain niche while it requires subsides to sell the product

And that is to be expected ICE was 100% of the market share so it only needs 1 EV to be sold to claim the percentage share of EV new car registrations increased every month. February through June inclusive, the percentage share of ICE new car registrations decreased every month. as stated by the Nation From January to May this year, cumulative sales totalled 260,365 units EVs remain a niche market with a small share. https://www.nationthailand.com/blogs/business/automobile/40039276 Number of EV's sold between January and May 23,972 or 9.3% of the 260,365

EV sales continue to drop driven by tight economic conditions The Thai automotive industry is facing challenging times, with a continued decline in sales since 2023. From January to May this year, cumulative sales totalled 260,365 units, a 23.8% decrease compared to the same period last year. EVs remain a niche market with a small share. The broader car market is more affected by negative factors such as the sluggish economy and the lack of clear, concrete measures from the government to address issues, which has undermined consumer confidence. Moreover, the tightening of credit by financial institutions, following the rise in household debt and bad debt, has led many to revise their marketing plans and implement stricter customer screening. This impact is not only seen in conventional cars but also in EVs. https://www.nationthailand.com/blogs/business/automobile/40039276

Byd entered the Thailand market in October 2022 with the Atto 3 there was no price war in 2022 or 2023 Its only this year with stricter requirements on loan approvals resulting in fewer buyers that Brands have been forced to reduce their prices the EV price war in China started in October 2022 due to downturn in sales and an increase in oversupply Data from the Department of Land Transport indicate that the EV market has not been particularly strong since the beginning of the year. January recorded the highest number of registrations for the year at 13,321 units, driven partly by a rush to register before the January 31 deadline to qualify for benefits under the EV promotion plan, EV 3.0, which offers a 2% excise tax and a subsidy of up to 150,000 baht. This rush led to a sharp decline in registrations the following months. If the cumulative total for the first five months is extrapolated for the entire year, EV sales are expected to be close to 76,000 units, considerably lower than the overall projection of between 100,000 to 130,000 units. https://www.nationthailand.com/blogs/business/automobile/40039276

Oversupply is a situation where there is more product on the market than consumers want to buy. In commodities, an oversupply is a period when over production of a commodity pushes the price for that commodity down to a level where the producers are losing money. Oversupply tends to be corrected through reduced production or discounting, but the time period over which this happens can be longer or shorter depending on the dynamics of the market. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/oversupply.asp

if you need a price war for market share that would indicate that there is a case of oversupply more vehicles available than buyers with the funds to purchase

Clearly that not the case If demand matches supply there would be no need to discount from original price by 32% https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=485876037294148&set=a.176402778241477

Its you that is not reading it correctly the article is talking about 2025 not current demand In 2025 EV makers in Thailand will need to produce 180,000 units to offset the imports from EV 3.0 and EV 3.5 Based on current sales figures for 2024 to date EV brand's in Thailand could sell 60-70,000 to the Thai domestic market leaving a shortfall of between 100-110 thousand that need to be exported if they meet the conditions of export If the EV plants produce their full capacity at 490,000 then they will need to find export markets for 410-420,000 vehicles The EU-Thailand FTA agreement is still in discussion phases and wouldn't be completed until 2025 and no-one knows the outcome Meanwhile BYD is hedging its bets with Turkiye to import vehicles into the EU Chinese EV giant BYD, Türkiye agree on nearly $1B investment deal https://www.dailysabah.com/business/automotive/chinese-ev-giant-byd-turkiye-agree-on-nearly-1b-investment-deal

The Article is correct its about potential oversupply EV brands in Thailand should be aware of the minimum 40% local content requirement for Exports through the ASEAN FTA if their not building with a minimum 40% local content the only place they can sell is Thailand if they build at full capacity in the years 2024/2025 this will lead to a bloodbath in pricing as there will be more EV built in Thailand with fewer customers available to buy due to stricter finance rules https://www.nationthailand.com/business/automobile/40039578

The minimum 40% local content figure is required if BYD want to export f a Chinese car meets the 40% local content requirement and is certified as originating from Thailand, it will be exported within and outside the ASEAN region through the ASEAN FTA network. https://www.thinkchina.sg/economy/made-thailand-chinese-evs-could-fill-auto-market Toyota Thailand local content figure is 93% Soon we were exporting models built entirely in Thailand like the Hilux Vigo and the Fortuner. To date over 7 million IMV based vehicles have been built in Thailand with over 4 million units exported to 124 countries around the world. The IMV project also helped us create a new supply chain here in Thailand increasing our network of local suppliers by 41%, as the production of 2,000 parts were transferred from Japan to Thailand increasing total local content from 60% to 93% https://global.toyota/en/newsroom/corporate/38421226.html So 40% local content is an entry level for exports through the ASEAN FTA network

Not according to BYD Currently, BYD's factory is preparing to use more than 40 percent of domestic parts from various parts manufacturers in Thailand https://www.thaipr.net/business/3473532