Danderman123

How to know Trump is losing Pennsylvania:

The posts here are mixing early vote numbers with a sprinkling of Election Day numbers from West Coast states from the first hour of voting. Kind of a sparse dataset. I'll help a bit.

The plane ride was long. The weather here is fine. I just voted.

Mission accomplished Almost all voters were Black or female or both. I voted to take my mind off the election.

Turnout in Philadelphia is huge, and Pennsylvania is slipping away from Trump. The question is whether the Harris campaign invested so much in Pennsylvania that they had weaker efforts in other states.

Nope. The data source are hundreds of voter numbers submitted by actual voters. As an example, if a voter in Precinct XYZ provides their voter # at 10.00 AM, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to know turnout at that time for that precinct.

Harris. It's not going to be close, unless there's an earthquake.

https://sixtysixwards.com/turnout-tracker/ Over 280,000 votes so far in Philadelphia today.

https://www.delcotimes.com/2024/11/05/live-reports-delaware-county-votes-election-2024/amp/ Here's another photo of voting in Delaware county.

I'm looking at turnout in Philadelphia right now, and Trump's dreams of winning Pennsylvania are vanishing.

sixtysixwards.com This site is tracking voting numbers in Philadelphia. For our foreigners here, Philadelphia is the largest city in Pennsylvania. Barring a disaster, Philadelphia is on its way to record turnout. This is disastrous news for Donald Trump. Mail ballots were running 10 - 1 against Trump, but now there may be a million total votes by the end of the day, if the current trend continues. That's going to be a 900K firewall just from Philadelphia.

Is it cold in Russia now?

Heard what? That there is going to be an election?

One thing is constant in US presidential elections: early reports will announce heavy turnout. Even if the eventual numbers show average turnout. The reason for these erroneous reports of heavy turnout is because of the great turnover in media, which means that a lot of reporters are seeing their first presidential election. They compare the lines with the lines for the earlier primary election (or the governor's election 2 years before) and the November lines look huge. So expect early reports of huge turnout, but don't believe those reports.

You are correct, as we don't know turnout levels yet. It's pretty obvious that Trump is staggering to the finish line, and Harris is peaking. This is nothing like 2016, when Hillary was hit with the Comey letter and lost momentum. The election pros understand the dynamics of the two campaigns, but nobody knows what turnout will be like.

I made it to the USA. Now there is big rain, but once that stops, I am off to vote. And then some shopping at Walmart.

You are correct. The voting breakdown is going to be 65-35 for the Dems, which is typical for national elections. The problem for your Dear Leader is that his campaign was hoping for better numbers from Latinos, but the MSG rally killed that dream. So, it's going to be 90% of the Black vote going to Harris, 65% of the Latino vote, and 55% of the female vote. If these groups (and yes, there is some overlap) show up at the same rate as white males, Harris wins.

I can quote you, no problem.

Your worldview is everything is fake news except for what your Dear Leader Donald Trump says.

'We're extremely offended': PA exit poll of key constituency spells bad news for Trump Trump should have apologized immediately, but that's not his style. Major character flaw.

And that is your world view in a nutshell.

Puerto Ricans voting in Pennsylvania have a powerful message: respect us This does not bode well for Trump in Pennsylvania.

Trump's Social Security plan would hasten insolvency, lead to bigger benefits cuts, analysis finds Elon Musk assures voters that Trump’s victory would deliver “temporary hardship” So, cut Social Security benefits, maybe some seniors would go out and get a job.

I didn't make the post you quoted.

I didn't make the post you quoted.