Danderman123

40 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

I totally agree that a widespread vaccination program is the answer.  Lockdowns cause more harm than good, especially when they are so badly thought-out like the ones here!

If we include actual history, your opinion is.... Not connected to reality. 

2 minutes ago, robblok said:

How does that work, I seen it from up close. The employees went to test. Were tested possitive. Then were asked to do a new test with government later on AFTER being counted. They were told NOT to release any data of people who were tested positive by the first test. These tests were done in normal hospitals or drive through testing. SO valid tests. But they were NOT counted and the company was NOT allowed to tell other companies they had 10 people tested possitive. Only allowed 1 untill the second government test (much later) confirmed the case. 

 

This is a true story recent too believe it was march april this year. So that basically means that there is a huge delay in numbers plus not everyone gets the second test but more importantly that only HALF the tests count as 2 test are needed to confirm one case.

Are you sure that the initial tests were PCR-RT? Or maybe they were rapid tests? 

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

Every positive test including rapid tests needs to be confirmed by a government lab or government licensed lab test.

So, an initial positive result by a government licensed lab must be confirmed by another lab? 

8 minutes ago, robblok said:

How am i right on the money ? the amount of tests ? I never read how many tests they did. Plus remember its only confirmed AFTER a goverment test. So you have to halve the amount of tests even. Because every positive has to be confirmed by the government testing before its counted.

 

I told the story about the GF her company where they had 10 people but 1 was counted as that person had the second test done others were not counted before the second test. So basically it means you have maybe halve the amount to see the totals done. 

 

But this stable 2000 just shows that out of 10.000 - 30.000 tests they have around 10% detection rate. That is why they say they think that bankok has around 5% that is a huge number if they test everyone.

 

I doubt they test dead people for covid to see if they died with it. Like i said the government wants to downplay this as the opposition uses this against them. There is a lot of info in the BKK post about his.

 

For the record i hate all the restrictions but think they are needed. Looking at India and Brazil we know what CAN happen. Once hospitals can't handle it anymore the problems really start.

Every positive test has to be confirmed by a government test? How does that work? 

4 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Being that you seem so well informed maybe you can share with us the number of daily tests being carried out in Chonburi.

https://thepattayanews.com/2021/05/15/covid-19-cases-in-chonburi-plummets-to-33-new-and-confirmed-cases-lowest-in-over-a-month/

"In the last day, a total of 353 close contacts were tested from contact tracing, and 936 people were tested in proactive testing when medical staff goes out into the community.

All are pending results. Additionally, another 250 people were tested from Royal mobile testing vans and are also waiting for results as officials step up aggressive community testing."

Please tell us why this data is not valid. 

7 minutes ago, robblok said:

Of course its worse then it looks tests are severely limited. They think the spread is around 5% in BKK. Why do you think the government never posts how many tests are done. Last i read was that the health organization of hospitals wanted more funding and promised to scale up tests from 10.000 to 20.000. That is the countrywide health organization. They do 3000 tests in the slums and call it mass testing. So you can only imagine that MAYBE they test around 20.000 to 30.000 a day. So we will never get more unless we do more tests. 

 

They don't want high numbers its in their interest to keep numbers low. Bad for tourism bad for the economy and bad for the looks of the government. 

 

Do you think this government would lockdown if they don't absolutely have to. Remember they let songkran go because of public opnion. I doubt many (me included) like lockdowns. The longer it takes the more resentment it builds the more people will think badly of the goverment and how they should have prevented this.  So its in the goverments best interest to downplay it all.

Except that the government posts test data every day, you are right on the money. 

11 minutes ago, pseudorabies said:

Personally I don't take these numbers at face value. The consistent ~2000 new infections per day is suspicious and hints that other factors like availability of tests or willingness to take a test play a greater role in reaching that 2000 number. Usually I would look at the number of ICU cases or deaths. But the government is really behind the eight-ball here and I'm less comfortable trusting even those numbers. I just assume that it's worse than it looks. A lot worse.

Again, I have looked at the local numbers in Chonburi and they support the national numbers, not including the prison system. 

If you have data to support your feeling, please share. Otherwise, you are just repeating a Monty Python sketch. 

10 minutes ago, pegman said:

If a high number of infected inmates are asymptomatic one wonders how many in the general population are the same.

The prison population is younger than the general population. 

25 minutes ago, Suua said:

I live on the planet where most provinces have very low infection  reported numbers..........I think you'll find is more accurate.

You would have to provide some data to support your assertion. 

If you live in a province, do you think their reported numbers are wrong? 

21 minutes ago, smedly said:

 

It is consistent because the number of tests done and types of people tested are consistent

 

by their very own guide - they do not test people who do not have symptoms so those who are asymptomatic are completely bypassed 

 

estimates based on studies

 

Percent of infections that are asymptomatic		30%
Infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals relative to symptomatic		75%
Percentage of transmission occurring prior to symptom onset		50%

Except for mass testing used to determine the positivity rate. This amounts to many thousands of tests a day.

16 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Before anyone starts pointing out that this is mainly in Bangkok.

 

Bangkok is part of Thailand, its not like Myanmar or Cambodia where we can blame people crossing over for starting the outbreak. No we have our own epicenter right here in heart of Thailand.

 

Nowhere is safe until the outbreak is fully under control and extinguished completely there. The way things are going thats far from the case. All provinces are liable to further outbreaks while this is ongoing and those provinces that have done well to contain and reduce the numbers need to be very cautious how they ease measures unless they want it to creep right back up again. A never ending cycle.

Weeks ago when we were in double or triple digits there were a handfull of posters trying to say we were doomsayers, complaining and Thailand's health service was excellent and more than capable of dealing with those numbers. Those same people are now saying oh its contained at 2,000 a day flatline. Its not, far from it.

 

The data shows that infection numbers in the general population are not growing much.

On the other hand, it’s pretty obvious that the numbers in prisons are awful. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were 100,000 infections right now in the prisons. The situation may be so bad that the authorities will count prison infections separately.

7 minutes ago, smedly said:

When an infection erupts the way coronavirus has exploded in Wuhan, China, and elsewhere in the world, public-health experts try to gauge the potential for an epidemic—or, worse, a pandemic—by calculating the pathogen’s basic reproduction number.

The figure, generally written as R0 and pronounced “R naught,” is an estimate of how many healthy people one contagious person will infect. Because viruses spread exponentially, a few cases can quickly blow up to an overwhelming number. An R0 of two suggests a single infection will, on average, become two, then four, then eight.

Until the infection is contained or runs its course, the doubling will continue.

Unless restrictions are in place which reduce the infection rate. Like in the UK last December.

36 minutes ago, Em150 said:

Well I never. With boring predictability, we are asked to believe there are roughly 2,000 cases again ????

Let’s use Chonburi as an example.

~1,000 tests conducted, some 48 new infections found.

What percent of the Thai population lives in Chonburi province? If you do the math, the resulting extrapolation more or less is consistent with the national numbers.

so, do you think the Chonburi sample is too small? Or is it all fake?

42 minutes ago, Excel said:

Assuming that the rest of the high profile inmates don't succumb to Covid first - perhaps that is their game plan ?

Very few, if any, fatalities among the prison population, and most infections are asymptomatic.

17 minutes ago, placeholder said:

ICU utilization rate is probably the best way to determine whether cases reallly are declining or not. And the lag time would be less than for deaths.

Chonburi tests more than a thousand people a day, that’s not enough for you?

5 hours ago, Victornoir said:

Restaurants can already open. Tonight I had dinner in my favorite Thai canteen soi Chayapoon.

I saw it, a handful of customers sitting far apart.

9 minutes ago, Marvin Hagler said:

Great. Can you give some examples of provinces with low case numbers and then provide the number of tests conducted in that province.

The Doomsayers here predicted big numbers of cases in the provinces from Songkran travel. Any explosion in cases would be reflected by overwhelmed hospitals in the provinces.

But, that isn’t happening.

6 minutes ago, Marvin Hagler said:

Great. Can you give some examples of provinces with low case numbers and then provide the number of tests conducted in that province.

I can point you to the official daily numbers, which are posted here every day.

if you assert those numbers are inaccurate, up to you to disprove them.

But, there are hundreds of members of this forum living in the provinces, and there have been few, if any, reports from a province that contradict the official numbers.

8 hours ago, fleccer said:

How many of that 98% have had vaccine problems or permanent damage? Obviously this is not mentioned,

How many people have suffered damage due to their dirty business. Yes, dirty business, because that's what it's all about

I would ask you to back up that assertion with some links, but I don’t think you care much for actual information.

2 minutes ago, colinneil said:

Hello, are you having problems reading? Maybe time to go to Spec Savers.

So in your opinion 3019 people with the virus and many dead is acceptable, pathetic.

Even 1 person dead is 1 too many.

You seem confused.

The Doomsayers were predicting exponential growth in new infections. Instead, we have a flat line, outside of the prisons. 

13 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Hmm, yeah right. Nothing has happened, hospitals are not full, many not on ventilators, people are not dying, large clusters of cases not being found, oh and everyone is vaccinated. What planet do you live on.  You don't like to say sorry the folks were right that the Songkran travel caused a major mess and its continuing on every day.  Look at the Stats posted daily and tell me again nothing occurred.

The Songkran doomsayers predicted large numbers of infections in the provinces from visits from Bangkok. They were wrong.

The 2,000 new infections a day are mostly concentrated in Bangkok.

1 hour ago, Marvin Hagler said:

What planet are you living on? They are materialising right before our eyes...are you blind? Can you not add 1 and 1 together for yourself or do you need someone to hold your hand and tell you what to believe?

I live on the planet where most provinces have very low infection numbers.

49 minutes ago, anchadian said:

#BREAKING Starting Monday, restaurants in BKK, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, and Samut Prakan will be allowed to offer dine-in services at 25 percent of seating capacity until 9pm. Restaurants in other 17 "Red Zone" provinces will be allowed until 11pm without seating limitations.

 

https://twitter.com/KhaosodEnglish/status/1393550349575720960

 

I saw people eating in restaurants in Chonburi tonight.

29 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

You seem to be going against traditional science.

I've had mumps, measles, chicken pox, COVID all once but never a second time.

So far my disease antibodies seem to have lasted me a life time.

The issue is Covid-19 antibodies, they don't last very long.