Danderman123

20 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

but there is no real evidence that lockdowns did slow down the spread,

 

in statistics, I can't remember the term used exactly, but there is a situation where results are attributed to the wrong event or the wrong cause

 

the spread happens in waves, so the temporary declines could have happen naturally, sans lockdowns, and it could rise greatly, even with lockdowns, like we saw it happened in Europe in the first wave.

You are wrong.

There are many documented cases when cases dropped immediately after a lockdown starts.

But, I suspect that such facts don’t mean anything to you, as you just don’t like lockdowns, even if they do work. So, I should ask you explicitly: if it were proven that lockdowns flatten the curve, would you support them?

or would you move the goalposts “lockdowns don’t cure cancer” or change the subject?

The preceding post was a bit of a trick question, because letting the virus go wild in the hopes of saving the economy doesn't work, because sooner or later, the virus will crash the economy if there are mass deaths.

Virtually every country in the world has been hit by the virus. There is simply no way for a government to avoid either mass infections OR damaged economy, almost no one has pulled off avoiding both. In many cases, botched government responses has led to both mass deaths and a crashed economy. But, if a government makes a choice and prevents mass infections, it's not appropriate to criticize them for flattening the economy.

When it comes to that choice, let me turn it around:  what if the economy is saved, but YOU die from the virus, is that okay with you?

Just now, dinsdale said:

By "up to" do you mean the same day, 1 day, 2 days etc.? 

Death lag new infections by up to 3 weeks. Some people die the same day they are tested, some a few days later, others two weeks or 3 weeks after their initial test.

1 minute ago, realfunster said:

 

Well, this is finger in the wind stuff but developed countries with mass testing programs and having gone through several major waves are showing a 0.10-0.19% fatality rate.

 

A possible inference of a fatality rate increasing from 0.12% (normal range- limited case numbers, track & trace approach) to 0.36% is that Thailand is under reporting current COVID cases by a factor between 2-4x, which is possible based on their relatively limited testing program and a wider outbreak. 

 

Food for thought...

It is very likely that the daily numbers are under reported. 
 

But the relatively small daily numbers are not the potential problem - it is the rate of increase in infections that would be problematic, if it is being hidden. I don’t see any evidence that the positivity rate is both hidden and growing, though.

49 minutes ago, Bagwain said:

 

The chart above is worthless. Factcheck.org gets funding from the Annenberg Foundation which does not have $1.8 billion in vaccine stock:

As of December 31, 2019, the Annenberg Foundation’s total assets were valued at $1.47 billion. Our endowment portfolio, which is invested to generate income to support our grantmaking and direct charitable activities, represented $1.33 billion of this figure. 

6 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

Are we still past the peak? or is there a Bactrian in the road Mr Czar????

Yes.

Testing indicates that the virus, outside some clusters, is not spreading widely. The positivity rate, where there is sampling information, is around 5%, indicating that the number of infections is more or less stable, at a much lower level than the peak.

Only 91 cases today, consistent with test results. 

14 minutes ago, Misty said:

 

I wonder if your crystal ball, or maybe Magic-8 ball, needs to be re-calibrated?  With such a wide range of potential outcomes at this point, it should be saying "Reply hazy. Ask again later."  With lots of uncertainty regarding key variables, there is simply no way to know for sure if Thailand is past the peak.

I don't claim to have any special information except that testing results show a positively rate around 5% except in the areas with clusters of infection. 

On 5/2/2021 at 7:15 PM, edwardandtubs said:

You need to take two similar places one with a lockdown and one without a lockdown and see whether the lockdown works. So comparing California to Florida is a valid comparison. It turns out lockdown made no difference. Do your research.

Florida’s positivity rate is 9 times that of California. The daily infection numbers are 3 times higher in Florida.

Lockdowns work.

17 minutes ago, covidiot said:

Edit:

Ok, so where do you want to go with this? My source is a quack? The scientific method is foolproof? 

 

You missed the other important point I made. Vitamin D has been promoted in the SAME mainstream media that is promoting vaccines. There have been multiple articles encouraging the use of Vitamin D over the past year in the mainstream media that I read.

 

But people don't notice these articles. They only focus on the sensationalism, the noise, the fear, the statistics. People only pay attention to the news that gets repeated over and over. They miss the subtle messages in one-off articles. 

 

 

 

Vitamin D is a good thing. It may not help with Covid prevention, though. What is lacking is a rigorous explanation of the functionality of Vitamin D in stopping the virus.

Yes, your guy is a quack.

Another name for the scientific method is “the best way to figure stuff out”. Before the scientific method, we lived in the Medieval world, where diseases were caused by witches. 

54 minutes ago, covidiot said:

We don't agree about reliable sources.

Then it becomes a complex philosophical debate that will take decades. 

We shall agree to disagree and leave it at that.

 

 

If you don't understand the scientific method, then we don't have a disagreement. We have an educational opportunity.

Just because you seemingly failed science in school, doesn't mean that science is wrong.

53 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Do you have any source suggesting the Wuhan videos were fake?

I always thought they were real.

You mean like the video showing some drunk standing in the street and then falling over?

Or the one showing a heart attack victim attended by healthcare workers wearing PPE?

Here is the first clue: Covid victims are bedridden before they die, they don't go walking around and then keel over dead. They don't have the strength to walk around.

Just now, ThailandRyan said:

Put me on ignore then if you think my posts are rumors.  My information is is either from seeing first hand reports on the news or reading them in the bonafide papers here in Thailand written in Thai. We all have our own opinions and agree to disagree.  Have a merry day.

I am suggesting that the two anecdotes seem like rumors, in the sense that the two deaths were ascribed to Covid without any testing.

10 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

If you read my post it appeared he had by the precautions being taken with sanitizing and such. I also mentioned that 2 of yesterdays 31 deaths had been untested before they died and this could have been 1 of them. Obviously they tested those 2 after death and determined that they had covid.

All I get from your posts are rumors, which are common during outbreaks.

During the Wuhan outbreak, videos were posted showing people allegedly dying from Covid on the street. They were bogus.

It’s very likely that the authorities found someone dead in a house, and that workers used PPE in taking care of the body, and an autopsy was to be performed to determine cause of death. Was it Covid or not? We will know later.

But the guy with Covid riding a motorcycle story seems bogus.

On 5/2/2021 at 2:53 PM, GrandPapillon said:

don't think anyone denies the severity of the virus, it's just the silly reactions of world leaders thinking they could beat this thing with "gel" for hands and lockdowns. Obviously they have failed. It never stopped the virus from spreading. And we still not entirely sure how it's spreading and why it's spreading so fast.

Lockdowns have been very effective in stopping the spread of the virus. Lockdowns, however, cannot eliminate the virus without draconian efforts.

I should note that the Denier hive mind has changed the talking points concerning lockdowns: last year it was “lockdowns cannot stop the spread of the virus”, but this year it’s “lockdowns cannot eliminate the virus”.

On 5/1/2021 at 5:52 PM, covidiot said:

Vitamin D strenthens the immune system.

 

Human beings are only susceptible to viruses due to weak immune systems. 

 

The doctor you quoted in your first post is fear-mongering and being dishonest or misinformed.

 

Keep your immune system up and avoid the media nonsense.

 

 

Vitamin D is a good thing.

But the correlation/causation between Vitamin D deficiency and Covid infection is not proven. Since so many elderly contract the disease, they tend to go outside less, and as it is the case that the virus spreads more readily indoors, the elderly are therefore more at risk. And have less Vitamin D in their system.