Danderman123

5 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Oh dear. Well how about this then. If there was more testing happining then there would be more data. You want more data then you do more tests. Sorry I can't make this any simpler.

More data would be better, of course. But, you seem stuck on the idea that unless data is given to you in exactly the quantity that you want, then it is useless.

based on the data available now, I know that tomorrow’s numbers are not going to be 100,000 new cases, nor 500. That’s based on the data we have now, and this is an example that a small dataset has some value.

40 minutes ago, Sunderland said:

Obviously the situation is improving and everything is getting back to normal. 

If you take out prisoners, constructions workers, migrant workers, other foreigners, people who drink alcohol, people who smoke, people who went running without masks, naughty politicians, sick people, people infected by relatives or friends and frontline health workers, then there are probably less than 1,000 new cases in Bangkok today.

Good news all round.

Or, if you take out the bargirls, you will be poor very soon. That’s my prediction.

27 minutes ago, meltonpie said:

I see.

So you aren't confident that the current amount of testing is sufficient enough to be sure that the numbers being reported are providing a significantly accurate account of what is really happening  and that more testing would be beneficial?

Then we are aligned ????

I can only comment on the numbers that are available, which point to a national positivity rate around 5% excluding prisons.

Of course, more testing and better reporting would be a good thing.

2 minutes ago, meltonpie said:

Why do you think it warrants more testing?

1 minute ago, spidermike007 said:

- Bangkok Remand: 1,960 out of 3,023

- Central Women's Correctional Institution: 1,039 out of 4,448

- Klong Prem: 1,016 out of 8,088

- Thonburi: 1,725 out of 4,015

- Chachoengsao: 43 out of 2,671

- Central Institute for Drug Addicts: 12 out of 5,876

- Nonthaburi: 59 out of 2,661

- Chiang Mai: 3,929 out of 6,469"

 

I wonder if that prison official goon from the other day, will step forward and claim again, that the number are not bad, when you consider the proportion of the prison population? What can one say? These numbers are not pretty, no matter what kind of face you attempt to put on them. 

 

About the only good thing you can say about the prison outbreaks, is that it is a rather organized form of quarantine, as long as nobody is being released or transferred. But, then when you consider the support staff into the equation it can start to get ugly. 

The question is whether the areas around prisons will become clusters of infections.

25 minutes ago, meltonpie said:

Johns Hopkins:

What does a high percent positive mean?

A high percent positive means that more testing should probably be done—and it suggests that it is not a good time to relax restrictions aimed at reducing coronavirus transmission. Because a high percentage of positive tests suggests high coronavirus infection rates (due to high transmission in the community), a high percent positive can indicate it may be a good time to add restrictions to slow the spread of disease.

How high is too high?

The higher the percent positive is, the more concerning it is. As a rule of thumb, however, one threshold for the percent positive being “too high” is 5%

 

https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/covid-19-testing-understanding-the-percent-positive.html

You are correct, the Thai positivity rate is high enough to warrant more testing. I don’t think you will find many who disagree. But, to paraphrase an idiot: “you go with the testing you have, not the testing you want to have”. 
 

i can’t analyze the tests that aren’t happening, I have to look at the data on hand.

2 minutes ago, Jimbo2014 said:

 This is slipping away fast and little vax in sight.

Classic Doomsayer.

Next month, this poster can point to the inevitable 1,000 fatalities and claim that this was a catastrophe, even if the wave has receded by then. 

Just now, Suua said:

How do you know when they don't perform mass testing?

Today, there are 35 cases reported in Isaan.  Do you think the number if off by 10 cases, 100 cases, or 1000 cases? 

Let me give you a hint: the authorities test in areas where walk-in cases of Covid present at hospitals in large numbers. 

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

They've been saying it for over a month? Can you point me to the when the "doommongers" last said that the community spread would become exponential? I can't seem to find that anywhere? 

If you have any memory, you would know that the Doomsayers rarely make a concrete prediction. They mostly scoff at the official numbers and make dire but vague predictions about "its going to get a lot worse". 

19 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Province by province list of new COVID cases reported Monday:

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/posts/10158021482327050

 

But... What about Songkran? 

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

Just about explains your entire position, if we ever need updating on Chonburi we can hit you up, as for everywhere we can do our own due diligence and reply on the reports supplied.

Please do. 

My prediction is a small increment or decrement in daily cases, outside the prison system (or any large untested institution). There will be clusters discovered around Bangkok that will drive up the daily numbers, and then days without a discovery, and the numbers will come down. Basically a random walk signifying a 5% positivity rate. 

If you have a different opinion, post your prediction. 

Saying "it's going to be bad" doesn't count. 

3 minutes ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

Care to link to it here, on this thread, where you have made the statement, thanks.

It was posted 60 minutes ago, in this thread. 

1 hour ago, Marvin Hagler said:

Surely in any normal country with a 4% positivity rate on 500 tests they would be ramping up inspection massively. See Singapore and Taiwan right now.

Actually, you have helped with the estimate of 5% positivity a few days ago, when you admitted that new case numbers would be more or less flat for a while, and that we should focus on the death count. 

Flat numbers of new cases imply a 5% positivity rate, more or less. 

2 minutes ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

Link to proof please, thanks in advance.

The link has been posted repeatedly today. 

58 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

So 40 positives a day at 4% with only 500 tests being in the mass testing category. Make it 10,000 tests a day most of that mass testing and one would expect around 400 a day this being an underestimate. From this I think it's fair to say that the daily national numbers reflect the numbers of tests and not the true number of infections. Again and again it has been said here that only true mass testing will get you closer to the actual numbers.

Nope. 

There is no breakdown where the cases came from. It's possible that half came from contact tracing. 

31 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Still on and on about Chonburi. Can you give us anywhere else like was asked or not. We would like to know.

Sorry, I only have data about where I live. 

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

Also not counting the workers camps in Bangkok. 86% explosion in positivity rates. However lets gloss over the prisions and camps. Makes the numbers so much better for you

 

Hows your last prediction doing?

To be clear, the numbers outside the prison system reflect a 5% positivity rate, with a daily random walk. 

16 minutes ago, Marvin Hagler said:

Let me spell out what we have learnt in the last few days:

 

Where possible the government restrict reported case numbers by restricting testing. There are a lot of cases in Bangkok because that is where all the testing is happening.

 

We have just discovered that if the government is forced to do testing in a specific area (eg prisons) then we start to see the true extent. Now extrapolate that out and ask yourself what if they were forced to do mass testing in Selapum, or Yasathorn, or Pichit or any other Nakhon Nowhere? What would we see then? The answer is we would see the grim truth as we have just seen with the prisons.

 

Ok I will give you a chance. Tell us the rate of testing in those provinces where you believe the number of cases is low. And tell us if the testing was random.

Chonburi. 

About 1,000 tests a day. More than half is random.  Currently a 4% positivity rate. 

Just now, FarFlungFalang said:

That's right everyone knows they've been sweeping it under the bed!

It was just 2 or 3 months ago, when people here were claiming that the second wave never ended, and the government was hiding mass infections.

Just now, FarangGeoff said:

This is laughable after a quote 10 days ago.....it has peaked.... 

outside of prison infections, the wave peaked about 2 weeks ago. It’s possible that mass testing in clusters will generate a new peak, but it’s obvious that growth of the epidemic is not exponential.

3 minutes ago, colinneil said:

Careful, the government are cracking down on people posting fake news.

Instead of posting nonsense, please tell us where the wave is increasing.