The Cipher

11 hours ago, bbko said:

I didn't see what IO you're dealing with, but in the past at Jomtein Immigration, once they reach their daily quota for covid extensions, you'll have to come back another day.  Best to get there early as the lines fill up fast.

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If this is your first Covid extension, your chances will be good, but there are some offices that seem to be difficult. Good luck!

I live in Bangkok so will probably go to Chaengwattana first thing Monday morning. I've never applied for a Covid extension before, so this would be the first.

 

Thanks all for the helpful advice. ????

Hi all. I'm on an (extended) TR visa. It expires this coming Monday (Mar 7). 

 

I mismanaged my schedule and didn't keep tabs on the date, and the reminder in I'd set in my phone only pinged me at 4pm this evening to inform me that expiration date was this Monday ????.

 

Ideally I'd like to stay in Thailand until the end of April and intended to pick up the Covid extension while they were still being handed out, but due to my visa expiring on Monday (which is the next day that immigration is open), I'm not sure if it's too late to apply for the extension on expiration day. Can anyone kindly advise? Thanks!

4 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

Indeed. I understand completely how valuable your time is.

Actually I was thinking about this today, and not out of arrogance or a sense of superiority. I joined this forum because I was interested in learning more about the lives of the Western retirees I saw around Bangkok but never had a chance to interact with, and I feel like I've accomplished that goal.

 

I'm not sure what purpose I serve here anymore and so I think this may be my last post for some time. I realize nobody cares, I'm just musing.

 

Will probably continue to lurk occasionally tho, because I owe a dude a coffee and the only way he knows how to reach me is on AseanNow. I'll respond to some of your other points below, but if you'd like to continue the convo thereafter and are in Bangkok in the next three months, feel free to DM me and we can grab a beer or something (I'm around until end of March). Would at least be more fun to do that.

 

5 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

1. What is difficult about getting a college degree?

Nothing is difficult about getting a college degree-ish. In that the requirements of college (both admission and expectations) now are so low that it seems like almost anyone can attend university and graduate with a degree.

 

What I would suggest is pernicious about the college game, is that: (i) they essentially tack on a mandatory four extra years post high school, which carries an opportunity cost; (ii) the cost of a college education in America has (and continues to) increase at a significantly faster rate than wage growth, which causes a ton of young people to get enter adulthood with a monster pile of debt; (iii) information available to high school students and other prospective applicants tends to be unevenly distributed such that many of the people who make poor decisions about college are those who are most in need of what they believe is education's promise of upward-mobility; and (iv) the utility of a college degree is more questionable than ever (essentially rent-seeking gatekeepers to employment), particularly in an era where almost anything can be learned to an elite level online and with some willpower, but in this world the credential still matters.

 

TLDR: Implicit (opportunity) and explicit costs of college are high and getting higher. But university's increasingly dubious value prop continues to be upheld by cultural legacy.

 

5 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

2. Why is life more stressful now than it was for previous generations?

Pressure is higher, pace of innovation is faster, and sources of competition have increased. This is true at all tiers of society except the tippity top.

 

In the working classes we've seen a hollowing-out of traditional sources of employment, increased pressure due to competition from overseas workers (offshoring) and machines, wage suppression due to those same factors of globalization + technology, and an increasing number of people checking out and/or turning to unhealthy coping mechanisms.

 

In the professional classes we've seen the bar of expectations rise steadily. A ton of professionals place their kids on a competitive path towards an 'elite' profession from basically as soon as they enter high school and those kids walk that path with the single-minded goal of passing recruiting in college. And the reward for those kids that make it past the professional gates is...100 hour work weeks and the crucible of professional expectations. And competition is getting fiercer because at this tier, everyone is looking for an edge. As the competitive frontier pushes outwards and upwards (at increasingly velocity, I might add), everyone has to rise to meet it or be left behind. It's no fun.

 

Younger generations in general also tend not to be beneficiaries of (and thus are negatively affected by) the asset price boom relative to wage levels. Expanding on this could fill a book in itself and would also get pretty technical, but there's probably been plenty written about this on Google if topic is of interest.

 

6 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

3. What are a few of the many material things past generations enjoyed that your generation does not enjoy?

I don't remember saying this. If I did say this, I'm not sure the context it was in. I think that the older generations alive today (as a generalization) enjoyed a relatively easier path to wealth accumulation, but in terms of meaningful material day to day things I'm not sure there's too much of a difference. If anything younger generations would be the winners here because of wider diversity of available products and entertainment/experience options.

 

6 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

4. What are a few of the many political privilege's I have enjoyed that was not, or is not available to everyone?

5. What policies tend to be favorable to my demographic that do not favor everyone’s?

I mean, nobody is accusing Boomers of maliciously rigging the system here (at least I'm not). But as a large-in-number group, Boomers have enjoyed a ton of political power for most of their lives. Because they're such a large portion of the electorate, policies tend to be favorable to the demographic in general. Not sure if this would be best described as a feature or a bug of democracy.

 

Some quick examples would be: beneficiaries of generous social security that may not ultimately be available to other generations; simultaneously requiring relatively large societal burden of care due to aging en masse; NIMBYism that would benefit younger gens (for example densification of residential neighbourhoods in high cost cities); Brexit lol; Covid policies that disproportionately affected younger people to the benefit of older people, while simultaneously exacerbating intergenerational wealth inequality due to policies that preserved pension and home values at the expense of incomes; etc. 

 

I ascribe no maliciousness to these actions, it's just a group swaying the political calculus in their own interest due to happening, by chance, to be a massive voting bloc. But facts are that this resulted in a privileged political position not (yet) enjoyed by other gens.

---

Anyway, this post = probably my swan song as an AseanNow poster. I'll revert to lurking occasionally. Thanks for taking the time to chat with me!

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

Yet with all that, even though the funds are managed "experts" with advanced degrees and all the information in the world at their fingertips, still half of them don't out perform index funds. How funny is that? It's still a monkey with a handful of darts, but now there are more monkeys and they're paid a lot more. 

I feel like I should clarify that my employer is a PE firm. We're generally not public markets investors.

 

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Think about how much easier being a Wall Street investment analyst became when spreadsheets came into being,  and then again once everything went online.

Also, not sure what to say if you think that this is true. Information flow is stupid high and gets higher every year. Connectivity just means that you're on call 24/7 too. Don't believe me? Do my job for a month. If you put in genuine effort and survive 30 days, you can keep the salary (which might make you blush).

 

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

Weak

Don't appreciate this characterization tho. Spent 30 minutes on a post that AseanNow zapped. Re-writing that post plus this post would be another 30 minutes. I do keep in mind that every minute I spend on AN is expected value negative (ie, I spend time to do sth, but have no expected return on time spent). 

 

I have a fairly demanding job, run a business, am doing a data science bootcamp, and also have to find time for life admin + leisure and personal life. Gotta guard time carefully.

3 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

So again, what is it you find so challenging about navigating the world successfully? 

I wrote a long response to your post and when I pressed 'Submit Reply' I got an error page and now that post is lost. Now I'm dejected and just not interested in writing all that again????.

 

I'll just say that the previous post I made answered more of your questions than perhaps you thought it did. And if you read it again and don't agree, then I was completely wrong and see it 100% your way now.

3 hours ago, KhunLA said:

The virus is here, been here for about 2 yrs, get over it.  Will be here for .... well, forever apparently, it's a virus.  In a few years, they may even start to call it a seasonal flu, once done milking it for all they can.

 

People have to live.  Or do people expect them to stay locked down in their homes for the next 5 - 10 - 20 yrs.

It took longer than expected, but gradually we're seeing more and more people tuning Covid out. Anecdotal, but this seems to be a trend all over the world.

 

Sooner or later enough people are going to stop responding to "tHe hEaltHcArE sYsTeM iS goINg tO bE oVeRwHeLmeD" and "tHinK aBouT oThErS" that there just won't be any political will for more restrictions.

 

We'll probably have to queue up to get our annual booster, but I imagine the restrictions on travel and day to day life will gradually be relaxed for good. There's no practical reason that we couldn't drop restrictions immediately, so it just takes a critical mass of people ready to normalize Covid and we can all get on with it. It'll happen.

3 hours ago, zzaa09 said:

Not authentic, as they're using local products of inferior quality [not local Asian quality] and many real items in Asian cuisines cannot be found nor imported. 

 

Like yourself, too many are fooled. 

Shouldn't surprise.

You can find some great Asian food in North America. Some of it better than in Asia. Mostly in bigger coastal cities.

 

Every small town does seem to have at least one Asian restaurant (usually Chinese) but those ones tend to be pretty lousy, or at least inauthentic. Hard to blame the chefs tho, gotta cater to market tastes to stay in business.

2 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

 I've pretty much done everything I ever dreamed and more.

Man that's great! And I'm happy for you.

 

But I bet you weren't doing it on your MIL's ฿3,600 monthly income tho. Income sufficiency matters, but that's not taught in school or even in most personal finance classes (which tend to focus exclusively on saving).

 

And I'm not trying to pick on you or your MIL here. Sorry if it comes across like that. I just happen to be passionate about this topic and could talk all day about it.

4 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

My MiL lives on 600bht/month pension, she'd be glad of that 'coffee money'.

I bung her 3kbht every month, as long as she doesn't come to stay with me.

Wealthiest woman in the village with the extra she gets from me.

I could probably live on 100bht/day if I had to.

Thailand is a cheap place to live.

I understand what you're saying. But my personal view is that this is the wrong perspective because it sets extremely tight constraints on a person's reality. The limits of the village essentially become the limits of a person's world in that case.

 

If you set the target to 'subsistence', sure you can live on nothing, but how many things in this world will you never see/own/do/experience.

 

16 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

I stopped drinking coffee, 50bht x2 a day was a waste of money.

2-3 cups of tea (same teabag) a day is much more cost effective (1bht).

Yeah. Buying daily coffee isn't an optimal use money and probably bad for your health in many cases given the sugar in there. Cutting coffee purchases is probably beneficial (make at home for health).

 

But re: finances, for most people 50 THB per day ought to be immaterial. If that's making/breaking their periodic savings then I would suggest that most of them have a bigger problem than coffee purchases (ie, income sufficiency and/or expense issues elsewhere on their income statement).

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When it comes to setting money aside, Kamolphu recommends saving a minimum of 10 percent of your income each month.

For example, if you earn 30,000 baht a month and your fixed expenses come to 12,000 baht, the calculation is as follows:

30,000 baht (income) – 3,000 baht (saving) – 12,000 baht  (fixed expenses) = 15,000 baht (monthly personal expenses)

15,000 baht is then divided by 30, meaning that your daily budget is 500 baht.

A few thoughts on this article. (1) It's really unfortunate that personal finance isn't taught in schools. People should have access to this info. If someone will translate and distribute I'll write/teach a beginners course for free.

 

(2) The quoted guy is right. Budgeting is critical and prioritizing the savings bucket before allocating the spending bucket is also the right move.

 

But at the same time like, if you're earning 30,000 and saving 10% that's like...$100 per month. Better than nothing but probably not gonna get you to where you want to be, either.

 

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Cutting “The Latte Factor” can also add up to big savings, she adds, pointing out that stopping the spending on small purchases like a latte can add up to a large amount of money over time.

Thanyawan has applied this approach in her own life, cutting down on the 50 baht she was spending every day on iced coffee and putting the cash into savings.

Man I hate these coffee examples (not sure why everyone uses coffee as the example). Specifically because saving 50 THB/day isn't enough to move the needle. 50*365 = 18,250 in increased savings per year. Less than $1,000. Like, I get that it's an illustrative example, but damn - everyone seems to paint coffee as the spending villain. Maybe I'm just triggered because I buy a lot of coffee ????

 

Anyway this brings me to the final point: (3) cutting spending is bounded on the lower end by zero. Can't spend less than 0. But increasing earnings really has no upper limit. Teaching people to be responsible with their money is important, but I feel that part of that financial responsibility ought to be making sure that you have enough income to live a good life while also being responsible on the savings/investment front.

 

The art of personal finance is walking the line between living well today and planning for the future. Starting early and expanding income is the best way to make sure you can do both.

Sorry WHO, I'm going out on NYE ????.

 

Covid or no Covid. If I get and/or spread Omicron, it is what it is I guess. ????‍♂️

53 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Poor dude, sitting in an air-conditioned office moaning about how hard he has it, and going on about how easy it was for me/us working in the sun or in some hot factory on my/our feet for 8-12 hours a day...

 

Yeah, it really sounds like it's me/us that has "strongly external locus of control" 

 I'm on the fence about whether to respond, because it feels like kinda a lose-lose proposition. Ie, I spend precious time writing a response that will probably be unappreciated in nuance and may make readers feel uncomfortable (and why would I want to cause someone's discomfort for no gain). But I'll quickly humour a reply so it doesn't look like I was unable to respond.

 

First, I'm not here writing pity-me posts. I'm just pointing out observations. I'm a Wall Street investment analyst from a good family and with relatively fortunate genetics. Nobody should feel bad for me.
 

53 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

About the people that stood out to you sure, but the size of the sample makes no difference if the sample is not diverse. The idea that you've read and kept track of a diverse enough sample is ridiculous.

So the first thing I'll do is illustrate with a simple game of True/False that it's possible to begin to put together a profile of an 'expected value' AseanNow member.

 

T/F: Males on AseanNow are highly overrepresented relative to their prevalence in broad society such that you would reasonably expect most posts on AseanNow to be written by a male.
 

T/F: Persons age 50+ on AseanNow are highly overrepresented relative to their prevalence in broad society such that you would reasonably expect most posts on AseanNow to be written by a person aged 50+.

 

T/F: Whites/people of European descent are overrepresented relative to their prevalence in broad society and even more specifically, relative to their proportion of Thailand's non-Burmese/Cambodian foreign population, such that you would expect most posts on AseanNow to be written by a white person/person of European descent. Etc.

 

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

Sure, if you went to work for the post office in 1950, you could work there until you retired, but you can do that today as well. 

 

I lot of silly people getting generally useless degrees. 

 

In any event, yes, I can say that basically any career you chose will provide an immediate path to reliable stability for financially responsible people.

So my Dad (age 70) has no post secondary education of any kind but had a long career as a software engineer because degrees weren't considered mandatory back when he was entering the workforce. By the time he retired, a masters degree for entry level software engineer at his company had become the expectation. That's years more of school and, for many kids, tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars of student debt.

 

Similarly, when my parents bought a house in my hometown of Vancouver they paid approx $300,000 in 1990. 30 years later the house is valued at literally 10x the purchase price. This is a similar story in many 'desirable' global cities. Did wages 10x between 1990 and 2020?

 

According to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), median individual income in the US in 2020 was approx $36,000. Even if we pretend that it's $50,000 for giggles, how are you surviving on that? Let alone managing to save a meaningful amount for retirement?

 

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

Well it sure sounds bitter, and I'm not seeing the facts. What does "hit stability" even mean?

Which brings me to this point that a large number of people in the (developed) world are living in a state that could reasonably be defined as economic precarity. "Hit stability" in this case would be to achieve a comfortable and stable middle class life. (You know, responsibly attaining house with a white picket fence, two kids, and a car.  Maybe a dog.)

 

This divide tends be (although not solely) intergenerational, with younger generations amassing less wealth despite more education than older generations. I'm not pulling this stuff out of my butt here lol. As all of these links indicate, this is a well documented phenomena.

 

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

Which of those responses did you not support? 

I supported pretty much none of the responses. I'm incredibly anti-lockdown and anti-restriction. Cost of Covid aversion not remotely worth the benefit. In fact, a period unchecked Covid might actually have been beneficial for society in the long run, but that's a diff discussion.

 

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

Why not just explain how the game is different? 

So is this good or bad? Be specific about a few things. There is nothing new about things changing. Some things are, some things aren't

What is more stressful or challenging about life today than than it was 50, 100 or 200 years ago? 

I mean, perhaps a more relevant question would be: how is the game not different?

 

The world has always changed. But the rate of change now is unprecedented. Because of my job, investments, and just general curiosity, I monitor the pulse of the world on a pretty ongoing basis (seriously, the amount of data that crosses my path on a daily basis would probably sound unbelievable to most people here). And despite being constantly plugged into changes, I find it more difficult than ever to keep on top of changes and, more importantly for what I do, to try and determine the trajectory of the future.

 

The rate of obsolescence and speed of tech/skill adoption to remain within some reasonable proximity of the competitive frontier is nuts. And the consequences of being left behind are increasingly big (gains concentrate at the top while middle is hollowed out).

 

During your youth you could be reasonably sure that the time investment to learn some skill would be usable for decades. This was true for most of human history. Now? I'm not sure that anything I put my time into learning/building won't be done better by ML algos within 5-10 years.

 

Is this good or bad? I don't know. I don't think that question matters. It just is. There's no point worrying about stuff you can't control. Figuring out how to handle your business in the shifting environment is the game.

 

2 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

And the world is not "advancing/changing" faster than it ever has.
Things today seem much easier and less stressful to me then they ever have. 

Which brings me to this concluding point. And I want to try and put this delicately because my intention isn't to offend.

 

But I'm genuinely not sure how you can look at the world before/after the internet and globalization and believe that the rate and scale of change is the same.

 

I see people (not necessarily you) say "has nothing changed" from time to time, and I wonder what the confines of their world must be like. Like, yes. It's possible to live out a relatively simple existence. But so much of the world will always remain closed to those people. I can see how checking out might be attractive, but unless self-actualization and genuine freedom have been achieved, I don't think it's the right move.

2 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Most older men you meet in person are a little more restrained than they are online.

We've nearly all learned to keep our thoughts to ourselves.

Different in anonymous forums.

To some degree sure. I write a lot of things in this space that I would probably not say unprompted if you met me in person. But quality of thought is evident regardless of anonymity.

 

The internet has anon personalities/communities where post and discourse quality is significantly higher than AseanNow. My comment was not regarding seniors specifically, but rather the members of this particular community who just happen to also be seniors (generally).

 

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

What is more unusual about this forums members is we nearly all have a regular income which is enough to live on without having to work. In some ways we forum members are far more privileged than the majority of people in the world.

I think that the members of this forum are remarkably privileged from a global perspective. You guys (Boomers from Western countries) are the beneficiaries of an intersection of different positive factors.

 

You guys got to play the game on easy mode compared to subsequent generations. And even now tend to be the beneficiaries of policy choices just due to power at the polls.

 

But the game's different now, and part of what I find so fascinating/frustrating about this place is watching AN members as they try and make sense of this new world that they find themselves living in. And admittedly it's a challenging place to navigate successfully for any of us, including me.

25 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

I assume you believe it, so I would not call it a lie, but the following is certainly not true: 

 

"...but with a sample size as large as this forum it's pretty easy nail down the profile of a 'typical' member." 

Well which part of the characterization that I laid out would be false then?

 

I apologize, because I'm not trying to be difficult or to single you out in particular, but from time to time I make some unpopular posts (posting truths that are probably better left unsaid is a personal failing of mine). And folks are quick to accuse me of being wrong, but when I press them on exactly what I'm wrong about they conspicuously vanish.

 

But from my perspective, I see spade -> I say "that's a spade!" And it's totally fine if people don't appreciate these posts, but I would prefer that respondents at least have the intellectual honesty to say "I am emotionally upset by what you've written" or "There was no need to broach this uncomfortable truth. You're a jerk, Cipher."

Perhaps more importantly if readers don't want to be so easily lumped into certain categories...well, I would encourage them to do something to change their situation. Everybody wants to feel important/special, but so few actually put in the work. Man, there's no shortcut for most of us - and that includes me. Put in the work. It's worth it.

 

Again, sorry Yellowtail. This screed wasn't directed at you in particular. I had to reply to someone and you just happened to be it.

4 minutes ago, transam said:

What a load of tosh.....????

Not trying to devolve into bickering, but if there's a lie in my post you're free to point it out ????

3 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

But that's also the majority of all retired men worldwide.

So not very incisive thinking on your part.

Actually this is a surprisingly accurate comment. Those characteristics do indeed describe most retirement men worldwide lol.

 

But the point about 'how can you tell what the average poster here is like' still stands.

 

Edit: To add, I guess we could drill down deeper to include more specific characteristics like 'cross cultural relationships wife/gf from Southeast Asia', but you get the point.

The characteristics that I listed were those that stood out most jarringly to me compared to other older people that I interact with on/offline. However the chances that I live in a bubble are high, so it's possible that more of the world is like this than I appreciate.

5 hours ago, ChrisKC said:

How did the OP determine (what criteria) who was what from observations of expats on this forum, mostly I assume are more or less ones he has never met?

Honestly, it's not that hard.

 

You can tell a lot about someone by what they say, what they don't say, how something is said, and what their perspective is on certain topics. It's not foolproof, but with a sample size as large as this forum it's pretty easy nail down the profile of a 'typical' member.

 

Think about it. The profile is: white, male, age 50+, retired, net worth sub $1M (and if $1M+ wealth usually locked in primary home country residence), low-mid IQ, strongly external locus of control, relatively mass market tastes/preferences (shaped by formative environment) etc.

 

Again, won't describe 100% of members, but I'd feel confident saying that bulk of users would cleanly check most of the above boxes.

14 hours ago, GammaGlobulin said:

Personally, I do know some guys on this forum who graduated from Princeton.

You might be surprised how many guys here are from the Ivy League.

As a person who may or may not be a Brown graduate, I'm a little skeptical about this.

 

Elite colleges tend to have two kinds of students: actually bright people, and legacy/privilege admissions from wealthy or notable families. Neither type seems to be particularly common on this forum.

 

My first boss had saying: "Real recognize real. But that also means that real recognize(s) fake."

45 minutes ago, m Stender said:

only the 3. jab, booster, can prevent people from beeing very ill and ultimately die

Actually...for most people their immune system will do this just fine on its own. The booster just helps.

Just now, car720 said:

If someone wants to be my equal then all they have to do is step up.

I think the issue here is the numerous AseanNow regulars want to feel superior, but without the difficult work of actually self-actualizing in any meaningful way.