The Cipher

2 hours ago, blackprince said:

As a professional in that industry, I'm sure you'd agree that O&G construction contracts are not the main thrust of the thread.

 

My experience of construction contracts in Thailand is in the civil engineering field. They tend to be in Thai.

Can't speak about engineering, but my (international) firm looked at doing an M&A deal with a Thai company a few years ago (was actually my first long-term exposure to the country). All contracts and conference calls were in English and that was the automatic expectation of both parties.

I suspect that any kind of cross-border or international project will generally be conducted in English at the decision-maker level. There's just not much alternative, and my experience is that execs in Thailand are fully aware of this.

As for why it's important for Thais to learn English, well - it's the language that will open up more of the world for them than any other language they could learn. Both in terms of spectrum of life opportunities and in terms of access to knowledge.

Quick illustrative example: there are ~6,414,612 Wikipedia pages in English but just ~134,000 in Thai (2% of the Eng amount). Content quality tends to differ also, with greater detail in English. Sure that info might eventually be available on the Thai internet elsewhere, but good chance that it hits the English internet first. In an information economy, speed and volume of information are critical. It hurts the locals if they have to wait for info to slowly be reproduced in a language they can access.

1 hour ago, ukrules said:

They likely won't need to bring it back for all countries to keep it out - because it will be in already and once that happens, well - there's no need to quarantine because it's here already.

You're right, but when have international travel restrictions on Covid ever been logical?

Since waaay before the Omicron hype machine even existed plenty of nations with community transmission had lengthy quarantines on arrival in place. Restrictions go up quick but come down slow.

3 hours ago, ChaiyaTH said:

Thailand is way cheaper than Indonesia. Living off 20M baht and asking wether that is possible must be the best joke, I did it with 1M. 

 

Most western people start or retire with a fraction of that amount. I guess its true that most rich people are not thé brightest.

 

A fool and his money part soon enough, to ask this tells your future.

Sorry in advance about shredding you but...the question asked was actually really prudent.

How many posts on this forum do we get from retirees living in quiet desperation (they may or may not realize this, but anyone who knows what to look for can see it) because they didn't adequately plan in earlier life. It's folks worried about changes of a few bps in exchange rates or stressing about unexpected new costs (see: any thread related to insurance).

Not sure if OP qualifies as 'rich' but the fact that he's actually interested in planning for his future shows that he's brighter than the YOLO category of retiree. In reality wealthier people tend to be involved in extensive financial planning because they ask themselves the questions that (many) normies don't know that they should be asking too.

So uh, gonna flip the script on you rq and say that the fact that you think this was a dumb question actually tells your future. ????

I booked and paid for the original Test & Go package already. I can still stay the night if I want to, right?

14 minutes ago, Liverpool Lou said:

Yes, they do, they all do if they suspect that the new, very expensive item they can clearly see, may have been purchased abroad and that the owner, returning from a country where those items are know to be less expensive, may be trying to avoid import duty!

So I actually had this (almost) happen to me in Thailand last year but have never had it happen in any other country.

When I flew into Bangkok in December of last year I had an Omega in my backpack that was purchased in 2015. Wasn't even on my wrist. On the final security scan before leaving the airport, customs officer pulled me aside and went through backpack to find watch. Then asked a ton of questions.

Finally let me go because I showed him some wear on the back of the watch, but I'm pretty sure also because convo was heading into more complex English and dude just didn't want to deal with it. When I fly back into Bangkok in a couple of weeks, I'm leaving that sort of stuff at home.

This sort of import tax in general is dumb, but if someone has a suitcase full of new lux goods like ok fine. But like, trying to impose tax on a small numbers of items for personal use is stupid.

10 minutes ago, Justanotherone said:

Any tips where to invest it?

 

Thai stock ?

 

I would love 5 percent interest

ETFs that track broad market indices should get you to 5% net while providing portfolio diversification. Average annual return of the S&P 500 has been approx 10%, and average annual return of MSCI World has been approx 11%. Those numbers are gross, but net would've still returned above 5% most years (and on average).

Equity volatility is generally higher than fixed income, so if you're thinking in terms of 'interest' then the asset class might not be for you. Would need more info on your situation to go into specifics.

13 hours ago, MrAscii said:

I will try to run it remotely although if I sell it I may get another 20M bath. I will think as many as possibilities.

Im expert in web hosting, but since the market too saturated I swicthed in to building material distribution company.

Im not sure whether in Thailand web hosting business is still profitable or not.

This new info materially changes your case.

If you could double your initial ฿20M by hitting the exit button on a biz, then you're good to go. You can try and run it if you want, or you can take the event income and straight retire with total (disclosed) assets of approx ฿40M - easily enough to withstand the stressed returns case in the quick financial model I built lol.

Personally, I'd try running it first (since it sounds like you're good at it) and if it's too stressful or difficult to run from abroad, exit while the biz still has value.

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Quick final note: be careful with what you invest in and the advice you listen to.

For investments, diversification and downside protection are your friends. You don't need to (and shouldn't) be speculating on risky investments with a material amount of your nest egg. Broad market exposure is fine. I wouldn't play in crypto or speculative momentum positions with more than 5% of a retirement portfolio of your size - just too risky. If you become a good enough trader to move up the risk curve, you'll know.

For income, if you have a ton of free time in retirement and understand websites well, maybe look at starting your own niche website and earning some affiliate commissions. Indonesia's a growing market these days and there's bound to be increased demand for content in the local language.

At the worst case it'll be a hobby that helps you pass the time. Best case, it'll throw off way more than a living income. If you incorporate overseas and earnings never directly hit a Thai bank account, I don't think you'll have any issues - but this isn't legal advice. If you have concerns about legality then consult a lawyer or other expert.

27 minutes ago, MrAscii said:

Im a retired programmer and currently run a building material distribution company. Can not speak Thai yet. I estimate 20M is nett capital after buy a small condo etc.

Can u keep running the company from Thailand? And/or are your programming skills current enough to possibly freelance or pick up a remote job?

Focusing only on the financial side of your question (since that's what I know), ฿20M is probably enough to retire to Thailand but it's something that I'd advise you to think really carefully about.

Assuming no income and only nest egg, you'd want to feel confident that your pot of capital could reasonably see you through old age. You're 45 now, so you'd basically need to feel confident that it could last the back half of your life.

I quickly ran some spreadsheet cases, and if you earned a 4.25% net real return (after trading costs, taxes and inflation) and spent ฿70k/mth you'd be able to go indefinitely without touching principal. But if your net return drops below 4.25% or your costs run above ฿70k/mth (both inflation adjusted), then you'd start drawing down principal.

In a scenario where, let's say, inflation runs hot and/or markets run cool and you earn a real net return of just 3%, you'd be net worth negative at age 87. I don't think that'll happen but if it is something to consider. Too many people seem to retire without considering that the world of tomorrow might be materially different to the world of today.

All of that is a long winded way of saying that you can probably retire but there would be some risk. If you can continue earning income to grow your capital for a few years, that would be the best. For example if you retire at age 50 with ฿25M, you'd easily make it through 100 even in the 3% return case.

There's a lot more remote jobs now post-Covid so you might be able to pick one up and live in Thailand while still working. My gf and I both work remotely from Bangkok for part of the year so it's definitely possible!

Legalization and regulation is probably the way to go here. These activities are going to happen anyway, and at least this way they can occur with some oversight, in a larger and more value-additive manner, and in partnership with official programs to help problem gamers.

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Do not be fooled by antivaxxers', their motive is purely political.

Is this intended as a response to me? I'm not even an anti-vaxxer, I just don't feel the need to evangelize to the tune of hundreds of comments per day to satisfy my own self-importance ????.

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They are mostly far right and belong to a demographic which is notorious for lack of empathy towards the underprivileged and minority groups. Their only goal is to ensure that the current US administration fails because the previous guy failed due to gross incompetence. They don't care who has to die to achieve this goal.

Was gonna bounce outta this chat but I guess I'll address this quickly in case it is regarding my comments.

I'm actually Canadian by nationality and not-a-white-person by ethnicity (ie, I get to check the minority box, so um check your privilege I guess). Just to bust that narrative rq.

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but gets his kicks from worrying those who may consider the threat real!

Ngl this can be a pretty amusing activity.

To clarify: I've been fully vaccinated and think others should get it too. If only because full vaccine saturation gives gov one less excuse to lock down. Nevertheless, the situation is ridiculous and I'm calling it out.

45 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

I can see a black swan event coming for cryptos ????

 

like it happened with the stock market in 2008

This is a uncharacteristically bullish take from you, since this is what happened to the stock market since 2007.

You guys have been arguing about this for literally 22 pages and hundreds of comments and not one person has changed their minds.

If the jury is anything like this place (probable), it's gonna be a loooooong process.

1 hour ago, Pravda said:

3 hours ago, davemax49 said:

Just ignore all the negative comments about living here. People are upset about there their own personal lives and their bad choices that they made.

I find comments like this ridiculous.

 

No one chooses to make bad choices. To most people they just happen. Sometimes it's bad luck and sometimes it's lack of knowledge. 

Is it ridiculous? Where's the lie tho?