The Cipher

5 hours ago, lkn said:

So Axie Infinity is just another pyramid scheme

I read the linked article, and it sure sounds like it. Like the author, I don't think a more sustainable transition is likely either. I'll take the L on Axie here, I hadn't looked into it in depth and was probably wrong to bring it up.

On 10/25/2021 at 11:30 AM, The Cipher said:

Never was going to be a lightswitch, I'd more look at it like - is the snowball growing as it rolls downhill?

However this is, and will continue to be, what I continue to primarily keep an eye on. Broad macro news has tended to be positive over time. Mastercard is moving to broad crypto integration, for instance.

It continues to make no sense to me to be at zero crypto exposure. The view I'm taking here is my own personal view as an investor. Let's assume three scenarios:

• Downside: In this extreme downside case, let's assume all crypto goes to zero at some uncertain time in the future. Do I believe that I will still benefit from exposure to this asset class in fiat terms before it heads down to nil value? Well, yes. I'm confident in my ability to realize some amount of profit before the eventual slide to zero. The only way it doesn't make sense to invest here, is if you believe that <your crypto's> all-time high watermark is behind us, and that your current buy-in price won't be meaningfully exceeded ever again.
• Boring: Nothing happens. Volatility becomes zero and market caps don't move from here to forever. In some ways this is worse than the eventual path to zero because you're guaranteed to make no money. Opportunity cost becomes a factor here, but zero exposure still makes no sense, since the future is unknowable at the time of investment it still makes sense to put some chips in.
• Upside: Successful crypto integration into broad finance and the real economy. Crypto's promise as a disruptor fulfilled. Don't need to explain this one. Rewards for early adoption likely to be significant and meaningfully in excess of TradFi returns over the same period. Questions I ask myself are, does it seem that we are moving in this direction in general and over time?

However, the above framework only makes sense for people who are longer-horizon, relatively unconcerned with day to day volatility, and are plugged in enough to keep on top of the rapidly changing environment. Some familiarity with tech helps also. Long way of saying that basically it's not a great choice for many retirees. I've gotta keep repeating that these posts aren't enticements to invest and that I don't think crypto makes sense for much of this site's audience.

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I have no idea what you are talking about. I am triple vaccinated and usually wear a face mask outside. I don’t live in fear.

Lol. 10/10.
 

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If you want to see what happens to people who bluster about manufactured Covid fear.

You know what it is tho, it's that throughout the pandemic, I never felt the need to tell a single person what to do. You want to go out? Ok. Want to stay at home? Cool. Want to travel? Go for it. Want to get vaccinated? No problem. Want to not get vaccinated? Sure.

I don't feel that others owe me anything, and think they should be free to live their lives. I'll happily handle my own business. But a ton of people seem to have a desperate need to tell me what to do, and it's genuinely the most annoying thing.

It's a sign that you enjoy the lively and interesting community discussion here. Congrats on making it to 12,000 ????.

I work in institutional finance. Very worried about inflation. Most of my compatriots seem to be as well, and I feel quite sure that the consensus view on the Street generally differs from central bank and government messaging.

It's highly likely that more money printing coming in the future, and you can already see the government desperately scrambling to fund their spending plans. Yellen's recent proposition of an unrealized gains tax is an example.

3 hours ago, lkn said:

Just finished listening to an interview with their co-founder Aleksander  Leonard Larsen (on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast), and their game is not running on the Ethereum chain.

 

They introduced the Ronin side-chain, which they run and control 100% and their game logic is off-chain.

 

The reason: Cheaper, faster, and it allows them to control things like kick users who create multiple accounts.

 

Now, the co-founder *would* like to run this all decentralized, but he said that it is 5-10 years away (really, he has no idea, and I doubt it will ever be).

 

Furthermore, the host asked him: If one of the popular services running on the blockchain grows popular, wouldn’t this service also just switch to central/private chain (to improve performance, avoid high gas fees, etc.)? And without hesitation, Aleksander replied: Absolutely!

 

Blockchain is a great buzzword to attract money, but I repeat, it is a slow and expensive solution, which is only useful if your problem is regulation.

Unfortunately I don't have time to write a detailed response today. However, would argue that none of this dampens my bullishness on transition to web 3.0.

Eth sidechains aren't not Ethereum and development of 3.0 applications is ongoing and growing. Never was going to be a lightswitch, I'd more look at it like - is the snowball growing as it rolls downhill?

Unrelated to the above, I'm not sure how I feel about regulatory policy. Some days it's extremely frustrating for me, because it's obviously a speed bump to talent in essentially an attempt to slow things down for the less-capable (see: 19, Covid) to the net detriment of society. But other times it does seem that additional regulation would have broad benefits, for example regulations to ensure that the playing field remains somewhat more level (see: megacorp antitrust) in a way that would be to the net benefit of society.

Pandemic will fully end when people lose their fear of the virus. This is slowly happening, and more and more people are coming to terms with what Covid is, and what it isn't.

More practically, restrictions the world over are gradually being eased. That is an excellent development.

As life returns to normal, vaccine saturation occurs, and societies don't collapse from Covid (never even remotely a real risk), confidence will return and the reopening will accelerate even more. So yes. In every way that really matters, the pandemic will end.

41 minutes ago, HappyGoLuckyLife said:

and I could hold classes legally, I would be interested.

I'd be open to contributing time to an initiative like this on a volunteer basis.

Can teach personal finance, or really any kind of finance, although I suspect basic stuff like 'what is a budget and why should you use one' would be the most popular and immediately helpful.

On 10/14/2021 at 2:06 PM, RichardColeman said:

Also what makes this clown think that vaccinated, quarantined and tested twice tourists, will want to mix with mostly mass unvaccinated and untested Thais ?

I'm fully vaccinated. Can't speak for anyone else, but I could not care less about the vaccination status of anyone around me. Won't impact my decisions or comfort level at all. 

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I do, and there are about 5 million who have now. Did you miss that?

Some context:

• Global Covid Deaths: 5,000,000 (poster quoted)
• Global Population: 2019 Snapshot: 7,700,000,000 (source)
• Global Population Current: 7,901,600,000¹
• Covid Deaths As % Population: 0.06% (based on poster quote)
• 2020-Present Monetary Stimulus In USD Terms: $15,000,000,000,000+ (Yes, that is what fifteen trillion dollars looks like written out) [source]
• Population Increase In 2021 YTD: 65,600,000²
• Total Population Change % 2019-Present: +2.62%
• Total Population Change # 2019-Present: + 201,600,000 (Yes, in the midst of this terrifying pandemic, global population could have grown by more than two-hundred-million people.
• Source for ¹ and ²here.

You can hate the messenger, but numbers are what they are. No further comments at this time.

3 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Thailand will be due for some big inflation.  Just wait it is coming when the demand increases.  Those 30,000 b a month UK pensions could well end up being a semi-poverty lifestyle.

Some will no longer be able to afford it here, unless they decide to live in total obscurity.

I see that you're catching some heat for this, but you're probably right.

There are some strong reasons to believe that inflation will really erode purchasing power in the coming years. This will affect Thailand, as well as many of our home countries. There's no certainty on how much inflation we'll see, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if some people on fixed non-inflation-linked pensions found themselves unexpectedly squeezed.

Gotta admit, it's a little amusing to see Brits lambasting Thais for complaining about the price of gas. Especially this year.

I don't think too many people will understand this comment, but if you know, you know. ????

I mean, I guess the third time could be the charm. And if it isn't then maybe the fourth one will be?

Or the fifth one, or the sixth one, or the seventh one....

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I'll have to respectfully disagree with you. From my decade of experience with Thais, especially Thai women, I have found that money is their primary goal in life and there is little shame in the culture to care where it came from.

Darn, if money is the primary goal of the average person, they are really pretty bad at it.

13 hours ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

Its an embarrassment for Thais , that their Country is associated with prostitution 

Don't know why I see this being debated. It's true.

Gf and I are both 30yr old professionals who spend 50%+ of our time outside Thailand, and the association with prostitution is frequently annoying. It's not like, unbearable, but would I rather see the association broken? Yes. Zero chance that Thailand's elite in general feel differently about this than us.

To clarify: I don't care if the industry exists or judge patrons. Transactions between consenting adults? Go for it. I'd just rather it not be associated with Thailand in the popular global consciousness.

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International travel will never recover.

Also lol at this.

I'd bet anyone who believes that this is true 10 Gs that we see a new high in airline annual passenger numbers within the next decade.

Yes, correct. Deep structural reform on both of these issues is needed.

Hope to see these issues highlighted more in the popular discourse.

I'm not a beer guy and am probably gonna get flamed for this, but man, Kronenbourg 1664 Blanc is <deleted> great. Probably the only beer I'd ever drink alone.

Never seen it in Thailand tho, unfortunately ????.

59 minutes ago, KarenBravo said:

Sorry, but I was specifically told not to do Lasik.

Oh whoops. I did Lasek (the one where they don't cut a flap) but I think it's based on a similar principle. Got it done at 23 or 24 so it's been about 6-7yrs at this point. Haven't noticed deterioration yet and hopefully won't see too much in the future. Still think it's the best money I've spent. Definitely recommend that everyone speak with a specialist before doing any kind of surgery tho.

17 hours ago, KarenBravo said:

Not cheap (but relatively cheap in Thailand), but it lasts a lifetime and results are amazing.

Best money I ever spent.

Did Lasek when I lived in Seoul. Can confirm - best money I ever spent.

3 hours ago, malthebluff said:

If not disciplined at early age ( and thai boy children are never ) also never taught what's  the right or wrong behaviour then it's bad parenting 

Don't know about that. My parents tried their very best to raise me and I turned out nothing like they expected.

This lady might well be a bad parent, but there's not enough info in the article to say that for sure.

It does genuinely make me sad to see that Canada has never been mentioned in any of these deliberations. 

I can't help but feel like that says a lot about how the country's international status has deteriorated in the past decade, likely for reasons that will remain unmentioned.