AnotherFarang8

Should Thailand people eat? The question of the same level of silliness. If Europeans want to starve, let them.

This time is different. If baht crashes, many others will crash harder, the almighty dollar the hardest, because that is where unsustainable debt is. Don’t mind the recent few weeks of rates, they are meaningless noise in the grand scheme.

When economic shtf this coming fall and the forecast numbers of tourists ain’t coming, it will be back to pre covid normal, scrambling for whoever can afford to come. Indeed only rich tourists will be able to afford holidays, all three of them. It’s only summer now but the first six months of economic stats already look horrible.

It’s not my personal understanding. BRICS is working on a common trade currency for its member countries, this was declared a few days ago after the BRICS summit. No further details were provided but the goal clearly is to opt out of the dollar system.

Thailand has a robust gold retail market. In the upcoming inflationary environment that is one of the good options to save money.

With fear mongering news like this tourists will be waiting it out, uncertain about possible flip flopping that will reintroduce stricter measures.

It’s a temporary solution until the ruble or BRICS currency payment system is designed and implemented.

Thailand and Russia are negotiating to implement MIR payment system that will help Thailand get precious rubles from tourists that Thailand can use to pay for cheap oil. There is also an agreement between these countries to increase mutual trade 10x. Thailand will export to Russia much more than it does now to acquire rubles it will need to pay for energy.

Thailand has no choice. Oil prices will keep rising due to politicized uneconomic decisions of western leaders. Every single item’s price depends on oil. Some of the forum members have been complaining they stopped going to restaurants because of inflation. From rice to air fares, inflation has been climbing but we’ll be seeing this for years. Thailand’s businesses are trying to prepare to stay afloat. They will pay $100 for barrel of oil and will survive vs $200 that western countries will pay next year.

Central banks live in the paradigm that raising interest rates cautiously will lower inflation. Just a few months ago Fed’s chief said inflation was transitory. Recently he admitted it was not. So the old paradigm is now broken. They have no room to raise rates because economy has seen the worst crash in the first half of 2022 since many decades, and this is under almost zero rates. Raising rates will bring economy to a screeching halt. They will start pumping more money into the system to keep it on life support before year ends, they have no other choice. Which means a prolonged period of high inflation, years as the 1970s era is a good indication. There are forecasts of oil going to $380 this year.

Russia’s Aeroflot will soon become the only affordable airline, with fixed fuel prices in Russia. Many Europeans used to fly it transiting through Moscow to South East Asia. Too bad they cannot now due to sanctions. TAT’s tourist guesstimates are again up in the air.

The covid fear campaign was a great success. Not in all countries. But all populations have incurred at least some brain damage.

If baht goes down, short-time price will go up because inflation. So who wins?

At this rate of loosening restrictions, they are sure to remove the vaccination/pcr-test requirement in a few months just like Vietnam ALREADY did. Just in time it starts getting cold in the northern hemisphere. Only to realize that hordes of western tourists are still not coming for vacations being wiped out of savings with soaring expenses at home. THEN the penny really drops and real competition of tourism industries begins. As for right now, rainy season doldrums with fantasies about the coming high season earnings.

Inflation is only starting to pick up in US and Europe. No, marginal rate hikes won’t slow it down, they are too little too late. Jobless claims already begin to climb higher with nothing yet but storm clouds. Come November, where will tourists be coming from? Those few that can afford to come will be hit hard with inflation in Thailand in transportation fees, lodging and entertainment. In short, there is doom and gloom ahead. Thailand should better have a real plan.

Unless the economic laws have changed amid all the world madness since coronavirus started in 2020, price freezes have always led to shortages over entire recorded history of mankind.

Europe is on the steep economic suicide trajectory. ECB gathered today out of schedule and the outcome statement suggests their determination to fight inflation is waning fast if there ever was one. Basically it means they stand ready to quench fire by adding more fuel from the money hose. Thai baht will do better than Euro under these events, Thailand exports a lot of goodies others want to buy.

>>The idea is that the longer tourists can stay in Thailand, the more they will spend.<< Good idea. They will need lots of easing with a shortfall of tourists. As a tourist I used to visit for 30 days then would move to Cambodia when my Thailand stamp would expire. If it didn’t expire too soon, I would just stay in Thailand for the entire time. Cambodia is great too, so no complaints.

They’ve been destroying currency value since decades. Nobody goes to jail over this. They will go on doing it, because the alternative is hungry jobless crowds with pitchforks which hurts instantly vs kicking the can down the road for future generations to deal with.

Airdropping free money all the time is the modus operandi, the crash that’s coming will be much worse than at the coronavirus airdrop. The Fed’s chief isn’t that guy from the 1970s era who stopped inflation then, small chance he will continue to raise rates when economy starts cracking, virtually none. We won’t have to wait long, should be obvious around September.

It was the shadowstats website that is often mentioned in non-mainstream articles but personally it doesn’t open for me, idk why, and it’s hard to believe the person behind it was making things up as his data was often referred to by respected businessmen and confirmed by them as correct, with good arguments. Ah well, then it’s not so bad and maybe people at the gas pump shouldn’t read too much into the numbers they see.

That concern will not last. Companies are already sacking employees and the stock market is nowhere near bottom yet. With millions out of job there will be no choice but to turn on the money printer at full throttle.

Back some years ago they changed the formula to calculate inflation. There are websites that count by the old formula which shows a 2x higher inflation or about that.

The creditors cannot call it all at once because the terms don’t let them, not without repercussions anyway. There is no reason for Thailand to default but theoretically it can and can start from scratch. Yeah, it won’t be able to borrow from the same group of creditors but there are others who will lend. China comes to mind.

The market began serious signalling to the Fed that rate hikes will not be tolerated. It won’t be long before the Fed turns super dovish and goes back to QE “to stimulate the economy”. Hyperinflation is the only outcome to wash away the trillions of US debt. Making these worries about baht rate difference a moot point.