
MicroB
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I'm thinking its actually less likely for China to invade Taiwan than it is to snatch bits of lost China from Russia. Taiwan is complex. There are 3 groups on Taiwan. Non-Han aboroiginals, they have no say. Indigenous Han Chinese; historically, as Formosa, Taiwan was a long time part of Nippon, and many people were forced to take Japanese names. They have a different history to the mainlanders, and are the ones pushing for independance. Then there are the KMT Chinese; Chiang Kai Shek's army and their supporters. They are opposed to independence, and are looking for reunification, when the Communists are gone. Companies in both countries have significant investments wth each other. But nationalist Chinese are getting quite agitated about restoring China's imperial boarders. Some are demanding the return of Vladivostock. These calls are not coming from the wumao trolls, who are basically working for the government, but from the zi gan wu, who represent more of the man on the street, China was forced to hand over Vladivostock in 1860. The Chinese call it Haishenwai. The CCP has a policy called "China's Second Rise", which is about restoring national pride following humiliation by other powers. Among the nationalists, they are coming up with a "China First" policy. The Neo-nationalists are less beholden to Russia past as an ideological big brother, These nationalists believe every country is a threat to China, and that China should no longer apologise for being China China has been quietely getting back Chinese territory through leases, and know possession is 9 tenths of the law. Since 2020, about 5 million hectares of Russian land are now Chinese. https://cepa.org/article/goodbye-vladivostok-hello-haishenwai/ China might look at Taiwan, and think,its are full of Chinese people, we are all Chinese people. One day we will reunite. China looks at the lost territories in Russia. There are no Chinese there, because they were driven out. That's a huge hurt to fix. The war in Ukraine is reversing the China-Russia relationshio. Now China is the top dog. Russia has nothing to offer to advance China. It has minerals and dumb people to dig these out of the ground. Putin's escapade has fatally weakened Russia. Whatever happens, after this is done, Russia is broke. Its expended huge amounts of blood and treasure for very little. Its military prowess was a legacy built up during the Soviet era, now severely degraded, and unlikely to ever come back.
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Unlimited weapons? Never surrender? Neither is true. And a fact was Finland joined NATO with scarely a murmur from Russia. And a fact is, prior to 2022, there was little to no prospect to Ukraine actually being admitted to NATO, given that Ukraine was already in a territorial dispute with Russia, and so would never be able to secue the necessary unanimous support from the members.
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Updates and events in the War in Ukraine 2025
MicroB replied to cdnvic's topic in The War in Ukraine
Benjamin Rich, aka Bald and Bankrupt, finds himself under missile attaqck in Sumy, on Palm Sunday. I don't endorse his channel, as he seems a dodgy individual, but its interesting to hear ordinary Ukrainian people who don't mind speaking in Russian to an Englishman. -
He's attempted to flag then date of the 2016 election, but got a 5 mixed up with a 8, so the punchline failed. He's making a reference to so-called <removed>. Russians write the date dd.mm.yr, as opposed to the Anglo-Saxon conventions of dd/mm/yr or mm/dd/yr. What the Russian actually wrote: So clearly he not referencing the New Testament, Matthew Nothing all that remarkable happened on the 5th November. Besides the footie, Little Mix was Number 1, maybe the Russian is waxing about that mementous event. Ireland beat the All Blacks, which is pretty cool. A couple of pandas were born in Austria A Presidential candidate was in Hershey, when a Republican was bundled to the ground by the mob, for holding up a sign. Heidi Klum was an a Halloween Party
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Updates and events in the War in Ukraine 2025
MicroB replied to cdnvic's topic in The War in Ukraine
Russian ethnic cleansing of Mariupal https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-ca98fa24-29a3-4c74-aa7d-ce38f756270d This sounds very much like Generalplan Ost; how Germany "Germanized" Eastern Europe, through the seizure of property, and reassigning homes to Germans. I really hope someone, somewhere, is working out and identifying the functionaries responsible for the development and implementation of this policy. Like Adolf Eichmann and others, they might think of themselves as mere civil servants, but they are war criminals, party to a crime. -
Now I know you made up the story about going up to Oxford University. Kind of the academic version of stolen valour. Oxord Union anyone? BTW, he's a Harvard man, just like Pete Hegseth. Obviously a dangerous Leftist in your view.
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He's naturally referring to when St Johnstone beat the Hoops, Celtic, and has never shut up about that glorious afternoon at McDiarmond Park when wee Graham Cummings nicked the result. Or, beimg a Russian, its the day Chelski took the lead in the league beating Everton 5-0 on the 5th November. Or he's too clever by half and thinks that was the date of the US election. it wasn't. But the wuld be 45th President did get in the news: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/06/trump-protester-i-was-beaten-for-holding-a-republicans-against-trump-sign AH he sued Fox, and won. Good for him.
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Depends on the risk and reward. Its probably not so much the active war; I'm sure the Russians will be obliging in not blowing up the American engineers, especially as they might be looking to do some sort of deal on the other side of the border. The major issue is the extent of mining in the area. The place must be full of UXBs. Will Ukraine provide the Sappers needed, or are American PMCs with sapper experience needed? The comparison would be Iraq; did an ongoing insurgency prevent foreign companies from investing in Iraq, including upgrading its decrepit oil industry. People did go out there, and took the risk.
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Heads on sticks https://america.cgtn.com/2017/04/28/trumps-approvals-lowest-ever-for-first-100-days-but-not-whole-story
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Thing is, he's not planning to take on NATO and the rest of Europe. Just the 11,000 or so NATO troops already in the Baltic States. He's banking on achieving a fait accompli before NATO can react. That will mean he will need 30-40,000 Russian and Belarus troops. His assumption is that once the Baltics have gone, NATO will sue for peace. He might even send out some message assuring people in Western Europe this is just a limited operation in response to Russia's justified aims. Many won't buy that message, but enough will to cause hesitation. If the Baltic states fall, then they won't be captured back. SO the key is if NATO get notice of Russian build up. And that's dependant on thr AWAC patrols. The is whether the US will continue to support AWAC patrols, or if they continue to share data. The data collected is fed back to the US, analysed, and spat back out again. When the US stopped providing Ukraine with Intel, RAF Rivet Joint aircraft were stll flying, still capturing data, and the UK was still feeding data to Ukraine. But the data that was sent was more raw, because of the block imposed by Washington. Ukraine's artillary accuracy declined by 5-10%, similarly air to ground targets. The key to defending the Baltics is not piling in loads of extra troops, but how NATO fights a war, which is to say, NATO fights very efficiently. Every shot literally counts. To achieve that takes data, a lot of it.
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Learn to quote properly. You can look up the DHS grants. They are a matter of record. Extremely easy to prove. In fact, its all detailed in the press releases from the DHS canceling the grants, as they allege the studies were identifying those on the Right as extremists (project title: " Implementation Science for Targeted Violence Prevention"). The other canceled project, "Blue Campaign Program Evaluation and Violence Advisement" they DHS doesn't say much about, except that it was somehow funding public health, like that was a bad thing. This is the DHS's own programme: https://www.dhs.gov/blue-campaign And this is Harvard's part in it: https://www.dhs.gov/science-and-technology/news/2021/03/12/news-release-dhs-partners-harvard-university-support-blue-campaign The Prwsident believes human trafficing is a cover to get terrorists into America. Now you support ending this research, and by extension, increasing the risl of terrorism. And I know what projects I worked on. What you say is libellous. I am proud of my contribution to keep our troops safe. I request you retract your allegation.
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Given your sychphantic support for Russia elsewhere, I suggest your political compass is extremenly screwed up. So apprentices aren't being educated in the workplace then. If they join a trade union, by definition they will come into contact with someone you call an activist. You want Jewish and Christian student societies banned? Seems a very left wing response. When you see the Hare Krishna people on the treet corner, are you constantly fighting urges not to join them? Or do yoiu cross the street to avoid them. Priests don't learn to be priests by going to church, you dolt. They learn theology at a Theological college. Your recipe for self taught priests is the model adopted by ISIS and Al Qaeda, where a former drug dealer and car mechanic can suddenly delcare themselves to be religious leaders. You are against debate. You are anti-democracy. I think old people and middle aged old soaks living in Thailand are as gullible af, given the voting demographics in recent elections and referenda. Define a "normal university" and an "abnormal university"? Was Trump University a normal university? Are abnormal universities then allow political activism in your New World? Or are you dismissing former polytechnics and the Rajabhat Universities as not "normal universities". Suggests you are an elitist. Most of your post about the British is pure testicles and literally made up. Let me know when the next anti-colonial street party is being organised, in case I want a celebration. You obviously have a diary of all these events. Or its just a figment of some sort of imagination. The Germans that were "outed" as your call it (adopting, I see, leftist, woke language) were Germans who were adults in WW2 with a hidden past. Heidegger, you muppet, was far too old to go to university and have a Nazi convert him, He was born in 1889. Post War, West Germany had free elections. Someone graduating from university in 1945 would have been born about 1924, and would have likely entered German politics about 1974. Though many Germans of that age were in the military, and postwar, having seen what the Nazis did, completely rejected their ideology. Looking at the results of the 1976 German Federal election, I don't see any evidence of closet Nazis gaining power that you intimate. East Germans, who had highly politicised education, generally voted for conservative politicans following reunification, so all the efforts of the commissars seem to have gone to waste. How are the Communists doing in Russia these days? Not very well it seems, despite 70 years of rigging things. Your reference to "Masses" is another example about how you use highly politicised language, of the sort used by Hitler, Stalin, Mao. Perhaps you have been brainwashed. Those loudmouths screeching about activists do so from the perspective of being activists themselves. They so want it to be true that an activist tells you how to think. If that's not true, then what are they? Grifters spouting nonsense. This is why politicans are stunned when they lose an election, because it turns out all the issues they raise don't matter to the voters. Governments lose elections, rather than oppositions win them.
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Some might say this is a standard Trump ploy, outlined in his upcoming sequel to the Art of the Deal, to How I Really Got the Deal, avaialble from all good book shops, but not Amazon, $24.99. Patriots can get their own signed copy for a mere $500 extra, while stocks last. Sarcasm aside, its hardly been hard fought shuttle diplomacy, has it?
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So no love for Northern Ireland then? Or do you want them gone.
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Well, he had the job before for 4 years, got fired, rehired. I've never known an employer provide a 3 year probationary period. Typically its 3 to 6 months. In the real world, he'll be having his mid-probation review, and conversations would be made about whether its best for him to move on. This is kind of where the 100 day approval rating polls came from' its a snap judgement by the electorate about how well a politician is doing. In a constitutional sense, his first actual review will be in the mid-terms. next year, which everyone will know won't actually be a bunch of local elections fought exclusively on local issues, but an actual poll of his performance to date. Its not looking good for him: https://news.gallup.com/poll/659534/trump-first-quarter-approval-rating-below-average.aspx Though neither is it looking great for the Democrats either. But ratings of individual members of the "opposition" is probab irrelevant. America doesn't really have a leader of the opposition. In 2013, no one was speculating about the popularity of the eventual winner of the 2016 election, because he didn't declare he was evenrunning until 2015. It might be that the Steve Bannon strategy is effectively nullifying effective opposition. Or maybe its just chaotic because the government doesn't know what it's doing.
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The thing is, the German government during WW2 tried to make sure their graduates all came out to be good Nazis. But in the post war period, West Germany was mostly lead by politicians that other countries would consider to be "liberal" (using the Yankee misuse of the term). Universities teaching non-Jewish science, non-Jewish ideology didn't turn out a generation of racist pigs. Those protesting too much about what they seem as activism are probably weak minded; they know they have a weak will and are easily influenced, but project that onto the rest of us. Some people call them Mugs.
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He's spouting things he read about. He has no idea what university is about. 18 year olds are old enough to vote, in most countries drink a beer, marry, divorce, have kids, vote and to go fight/die for their country. They can think for themselves. He probably wants Trade Unions banned, in case they infect apprentices with crazy ideas. Maybe ban some books. Some people are intent on infantilising the population. His avatar is a hackneyed lion, perhaps he's a big fan of the Lion King.
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Sports fans find a reason to disagree. Sports is highly political. When Putin promises the 47th President a hockey match, that's political. When Americans watch USA play netball, and chant USA USA, that's political. When flags are raised during the winners ceremony in the Olympics, following a F1 race, that's political. When a President throws the first ball of the season, does a lap of Daytona, that's political. When Europe plays against the US in golf, that's political. I expect you want all theological colleges closed down, because they teach religion, ususally one sort of religion.
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Communist stooge talk. Some would say the Americans much prefer the frontline to be Berlin and not Baltimore. That was the compact for the whole of the Cold War. A war in Europe ensured there wasn;t a war in North America. Look at a map. How quickly could Russia take Alaska, before America could get anyone up there to defend it. Sarah Palin could see Russia from her window.
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Technically he won't be taking on NATO, just Europe. SHAPE is always headed by a US flag officer. But he reports to his President, not to any European leader. At best, there will be hesitation, while the SHAPE commander awaits a response from Washington. Worst case wargame scenario is that Russia can take the Baltic states in 36 hours (Rand Corp estimate). And then Russia controls the Baltic States. What then? How do you make the Russians leave? Fight them, and probably destroy those countries in the process. Sanctions? Open a new front? The casus belli for Russia would be to secure a corridor to Kalingrad, maybe in the middle of winter. They then lay effective siege to the Baltics. Support from Finland across the the Gulf of Finland will be difficult. Logistically, it would be difficult for NATO to get supplies to Helsinki except by air; the roads are not great in winter. They wuld be having to contest the Baltic for freedom of navigation. Russia might demand removal of NATO forces in return of safe passage. The position of the Baltic states has always been tenuous. A bellicose Poland might respond, trying to take back Polish territory (and no doubt the internet will be full of experts pointing out these areas were never really Polish, and Poland isn;t a real country anyhow), but the Americans have all just pulled out of Poland. Who has their backs?