nigelforbes

We're in an identical situation so will be keen to understand also.

I picked up the 750% figure from an internet search but I can't immediately locate it again. My curiosity is now peaked so I'm going to continue digging to unravel the picture. I THINK the 750% number may include state spending that is devolved by Federal government but I'm not certain. US budget spending outlay for 2022 was 5.9 trill, which included a 1 trill deficit. That makes US budget spending only 20% of GDP although a further 24 trill. was carried as public debt also, making a total of 31 trill. I'm 100% certain of the earlier Thai figures and also the US budget figures, the missing link is devolved state spending which doesn't have anything comparable on the Thai side. https://www.cbo.gov/topics/budget

Again, this is a timeframe horizon issue. You get 5% if you look backwards, looking forward is likely to be negative.

The question is easier to answer if you go back to include the past 5 years! I've been invested in the S&P for that many years but the past 12 months have been wretched.

Sorry, yes, it should read per month, not year.

OK, in which case let's do it this way You can't go back and edit your earlier answers, after the fact! I haven't gone away, I managed to finalise the Thai side but I'm struggling somewhat with the US data side,...I will get there, this is the Thai side. Let's come back to basics, until such time as we get slapped for discussing the US rather than Thailand, trust me, it will happen! Thailand GDP is USD 502 bill, government debt is 60% of GDP or USD 300 bill. Thai government bonds = 45% of USD 444 bill. or USD 200 bill. Ergo, total public debt = USD 500 bill. or effectively 100% of GDP. Note the above does not include consumer debt, corporate debt or any private debt which are totally separate. So, based on how we elect to express the figures, total Thai government debt is either 60% or 100% of GDP, agreed? https://www.thaibma.or.th/EN/Education/ThaiBondMarket.aspx

Net yield? Maybe, many rental yields in the UK are falling. Mine is under 4% currently and there's no borrowings.

And here's one from the same source showing total public debt. Can I also pint out this backwards and forwards is off topic and will result in mods deleting most of it and slapping wrists! https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S Note, the above includes Treasury issued debt but does not include private or consumer debt. https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny The Debt to the Penny dataset provides information about the total outstanding public debt and is reported each day. Debt to the Penny is made up of intragovernmental holdings and debt held by the public, including securities issued by the U.S. Treasury. Total public debt outstanding is composed of Treasury Bills, Notes, Bonds, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), Floating Rate Notes (FRNs), and Federal Financing Bank (FFB) securities, as well as Domestic Series, Foreign Series, State and Local Government Series (SLGS), U.S. Savings Securities, and Government Account Series (GAS) securities. Debt to the Penny is updated at the end of each business day with data from the previous business day. Data DictionaryData TablesMetadataNotes & Known Limitations

Nope! You've included consumer debt in your definition and that's a horse of a very different color. For example, China owns about USD 1 trill. in US Treasuries, that's debt that has to be repaid, debt that was issued by the Treasury. "The national debt is the amount of money the federal government has borrowed to cover the outstanding balance of expenses incurred over time. In a given fiscal year (FY), when spending (ex. money for roadways) exceeds revenue (ex. money from federal income tax), a budget deficit results. To pay for this deficit, the federal government borrows money by selling marketable securities such as Treasury bonds, bills, notes, floating rate notes, and Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). The national debt is the accumulation of this borrowing along with associated interest owed to the investors who purchased these securities. As the federal government experiences reoccurring deficits, which is common, the national debt grows. Simply put, the national debt is similar to a person using a credit card for purchases and not paying off the full balance each month. The cost of purchases exceeding the amount paid off represents a deficit, while accumulated deficits over time represents a person’s overall debt"

And put so eloquently too, a pimple on an elephants rear end. ????

Possibly, although Karasin is very rural so maybe not representative of the Thai economy as a whole, more anecdotal perhaps? The reduction in airlines is no surprise, that seems to be a global phenomena as airlines ramp up service and staffing based on demand. A majority of Thai GDP arises in Bangkok, the major tourist and industrial areas are next, Chonburi/Rayong, Phuket, Chiang Mai. Karasin and similar places are not producing areas, they are home to workers and agriculture so I imagine workers who live there would normally travel to other areas for work, or have returned to work in the fields. We were in Pattaya and surrounds two weeks ago and were pleasantly surprised at how vibrant and alive the place was, it compared very favorably to our previous visit six months before when all the shops were shuttered and for sale signs were everywhere.

Oh please! https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/#:~:text=As of October 2022 it,over the past ten years.

You say these things Mike but with all due respect, they are theories and conjecture on your part rather than fact, otherwise how could you possibly know they exist if they are not/under reported? I calculate that Thailand needs a minimum of 10 million tourists per month in order to keep their current account in surplus, all other factors being equal. September showed 13 mill, we don't yet know what the October numbers were but almost certainly they were higher. September's current account showed a surplus of USD 600+ mill., October showed a deficit as a result of lower tourist spending and reduced exports. The point here is that 10 mill. tourist per month for 12 months will see a positive balance, that's only a quarter of what it was before covid19 struck. You talk about tourism here suffering greatly in light of recession but the US is the main recipient of that pain. Does anyone really believe that recession will effect every country in the world, including India, Russia, Europe and the ASEAN countries, which is where the majority of tourists visiting Thailand have come from.

Another way to look at this issue is the value of the 10 year bond. The US 10 year is currently 3.74%, the Thai 10 year bond just moved down from 3.12% this month but will recover when rates are increased on Friday, as announced by BOT. The premium on the US 10 year is quite small by comparison which reaffirms the confidence markets have in the Thai economy. The respective charts are linked below. https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/government-bond-yield https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/TMUBMUSD10Y?countryCode=BX&mod=MW_story_quote

I hope this is not another conspiracy theory! The reality is that this is an issue of debt. Thailand has low government debt levels (consumer debt is not part of this picture), less than 60% of GDP and only a very small percentage (less than 5%) is foreign debt. Contrast that with US debt of 750%+ of GDP and UK debt level of over 100%. So whilst the Thai economy may not be great today it is hardly in tatters, and with Foreign Currency Reserves of over USD 200 bill. they can easily sustain a current account deficit at current levels, for many years if they have to. All Thailand has to do is tick over and wait for the rest of the global economy to improve and their lot will improve with it.

The Fed is due to meet on 2 December to discuss interest rates and inflation, the expectation is that the Fed will call for an 0.50% increase rather than 0.75%. That reduction in rate increase expectation is enough to weaken USD, already today against THB it has fallen to around 35 and to under 42 against the Pound. What's interesting here is that the Thai current account is still in deficit by USD 0.5 bill., because of low spending tourist numbers and reduced export figures. Historically, a current account deficit has meant a weaker Baht, not so today. This implies that THB can still continue to strengthen somewhat against the majors before it reaches fair value. If tourism does ever take off again (which it will), if China opens up again (which it will) and if exports ever regain their previous levels again (which they will), look out. Of course the Fed could surprise to the downside and impose another 0.75% rate increase, in which case USD will strengthen and the Baht will get stronger, markets are saying there's less than a 20% chance of that happening.

The FET or FRC covers all foreign currency transactions, not just those for property purchase. You should have no problem remitting the funds overseas, as a long as you prove they were brought into Thailand originally and not earned here.

Productive assets, for example? With inflation running at (insert your own number here, I'll call mine 8% or X) at X%, there is no investment that I know that can equal that sort of return, not on any reasonable risk/reward basis.

0.1% of 100,000 is not 1,000, it is 100.

I agree completely

Cash is a depreciating asset over time but most of the alternatives this year have been loss making assets, equities and bonds in particular. I think there are times when it's right to go into cash and this year was one of them.

"Likewise with the money exchangers. They have some non-("real")-money commodity (US$100 and US$20 bills), and even though five US$20 bills are the equivalent amount of "rice" as one US$100 bill, there's different economics in obtaining and storing a US$100 versus the US$20. There's also differences in the desirability of a US$100 versus five US$20s. As such, just like the grocers changing the price of the different packages of rice (or bulk rice), the money exchangers may change the price of US$100 versus US$20 (or electronic transfers)." https://money.stackexchange.com/questions/108331/why-do-money-exchangers-give-different-rates-to-different-bills#:~:text=So to directly answer your,interconverted by someone in India.

It's spot rate, plus markup, regardless of volume.

Ah, that'd be the unmarked police cars I presume. ????

An easy and straight forward choice for my ignore list, the second today, it's been a good day. Byee.