nigelforbes

Higher interest rates apply to government borrowings also, the higher the government debt repayments, the greater the tax burden will become at some point. The question for the man in the street is, where do you want your debt to come from! Interest rates at 5-10%, really? That implies inflation that is way beyond the 2% target. Be careful what you wish for.

The area where I live has been inundated with Chinese over the past three years. These are affluent middle class Chinese who pay around 5 mill. for a house and a further 200k per year per child for the private school nearby. Most of the wives are housewives' of a sort, most of the men (and several of the women) are engaged in various sorts of nefarious activity, some of which I see from time to time. There are more Chinese here than Thai or any other nationality, they all have an angle of some sort and there's a lot of money involved, a lot.

A major headwind for the Pound is the rate of strengthening of other currencies. The Baht just strengthened because the Thai current account went into surplus for the first time in a while, on the back of increased tourist arrivals. That increase came on the basis of 7 million tourists per year, the future is unlikely to see a lower number of arrivals. That means THB will almost certainly continue to strengthen against a USD that is already overly strong (111%).......think what will happen when USD does begin to weaken, especially if GBP does the same thing, as the article suggests, "this strength is likely only to be fleeting as investors return their focus to the stagnating economy and the Bank of England"!

I don't see anything apart for the usual roof paints in the shops, can anyone recommend anything sturdy of higher quality? Thanks

Very true, Investing is already quite risky, when you add in the old age factor it becomes unacceptably risky for many, the trouble is that many of them don't understand that! "The literature" used to recommend holding funds for at least five years, now, many are saying ten years. But you have to add to that the earn back period needed to recoup that money through employment, in case everything goes South. That suggests people over 50 probably shouldn't invest in markets, or if they do, that they should adopt the lowest risk approach. There's investing and then there's, investing. It's one thing to hold half a dozen high risk/high volatility tech funds but it's something else entirely to hold T'bills and Gilts. The problem I see is that very few people who made money previously by investing in higher risk instruments, seem prepared to tone things down as they get older and reduce their risk. Warren Buffet famously said, "diversification is for people who don't know what they are doing". I clearly must not know what I'm doing because it's only diversification that has saved my financial bacon. FWIW some of my investing rules include, always: - diversify geographically, - diversify by sector, - diversify by asset class, over and beyond just equities and conventional bonds, - use the highest caliber Fund Manager possible, - never buy anything that locks into a single geography, always allow an escape path, - maximum 10% in small caps, - only buy things you can see inside of and understand fully. As a wise old sage once said, markets can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent. Case in point, the S&P is down 2.5% this morning, following the Fed announcement, aren't you glad you didn't buy yesterday!

I can verify that's swampy arrivals. And since masks are no longer mandatory the picture would have to be recent.

Perfect timing, the balance of trade improved. The current account turned to surplus so the Baht strengthened. "A better-than-expected rebound in foreign tourist arrivals, lower oil prices and sliding shipping costs are brightening the outlook for Thailand’s current account, potentially offering a reprieve for the nation’s currency trading near a 16-year low. Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy posted a surprise current-account surplus in September and with tourist arrivals gathering pace, the broadest measure of trade may get better in the fourth quarter, according to economists from Standard Chartered and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group". https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/baht-set-for-relief-as-thai-current-account-turns-surplus

Why would Brits go to Pattaya for English food?

I'd do what Charlie would do, minus the first part, it just saves everyone's time. :)) I'm joking of course, I'd hand it in, the question to whom....tricky that one.

These pre-Fed bear market rallies have become a feature of the current markets, rally, stall, Fed meeting, down. Watching the S&P performance is pointless, far better to watch the Treasuries yield curves, unemployment numbers, the VIX and the US DI. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/TMUBMUSD10Y?countryCode=BX&mod=MW_story_quote When unemployed numbers increase and the 10 year, the DI and the VIX fall, that will be a better time perhaps. "Asian stocks headed for a decline on Wednesday to follow US shares lower as hopes the Federal Reserve would soften its hawkish stance vanished on robust US jobs data". https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-under-pressure-hope-fed-223241287.html

It remains illegal to establish a company for the sole purpose of owning a single property.

I think the most important part of a mower is the engine, if a mower doesn't have either a Honda or a Briggs and Straton engine I tend to not ne interested. I'm not sure that's the correct thinking or not but I don't know of any other reliable engine manufacturers, does anyone else? Also, it looks as though many of the petrol driven mower brands use the same deck which is made from pressed steel, I'm told there are places to buy replacement decks for around 2k baht but I've never actually seen them. (there is a design flaw in that deck and it needs to be braced in the rear if it's to last for more than a couple of years). I also see the same wheel assemblies in use on different models so maybe there's a common supplier also, dunno.

Bond yield curves are inverted, the return on the 3 month is greater than on the 10 year which almost guarantees a recession is coming. "The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell as much as 11 basis points to 3.94%, compared to a peak of 4.34% last month, the highest since 2007". "The rush for bonds comes as Chair Jerome Powell’s favored portion of the yield curve -- the difference between where three-month rates are now versus where they are expected to be in 18 months’ time -- is on the cusp of inverting, with the spread between the two tumbling to a mere 0.2 percentage points Tuesday from 2.7 percentage points in April." "An inverted yield curve is a key warning sign for many investors that a recession is coming as the market begins to price in an end to tighter policy and braces for lower rates in the future to soften the blow of a looming slowdown. Many closely-watched spreads in the Treasury market have already flipped below zero". https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bonds-rally-powell-favored-curve-103953661.html

I forgot to add previously, we have about 300 tw of garden, mostly laid to lawn. That will give you an idea of the usage.

Price?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/12/thailand-says-it-can-slow-rate-hikes-one-economist-says-its-a-gamble.html You have to admire the BOT's desire to smooth rate increases over time and minimize their impact, but will the plan work. A number of people are betting it wont. The Fed rate is forecast to max out at 5% in the Spring, that will be a huge gap between them and us. I don't think tourism is going to be the savior this year or next but other exports could do well, rice in particular, given we've got plenty of water. As for the comments about foreigners being net buyers in the SET, the index has been flat of falling, covid not withstanding, for years. https://classic.set.or.th/en/market/setindexchart.html

I think this sums up things nicely: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-can-get-to-4-150-before-reality-sets-in-says-morgan-stanleys-normally-bearish-top-strategist-11667213242?siteid=yhoof2

It's down to the interest rate differential, Thai rates are very low whereas US rates are much higher. Plus Thailand is still operating a trade deficit, the baht won't strengthen until the balance of trade improves.

OK, thanks for that, thanks for confirming what you are and are not. It makes my posting life that much easier since I don't have to give you the benefit of the doubt and don't have to bother opening your posts to see if you might ever say something useful.

Is it really necessary to create a new post every time a slightly different thought comes into your head! Why don't you just slow down, think about the subject and then post once with a complete and well thought through answer, I think most people would appreciate that. You've posted 37 times already in this thread, many within seconds of the prior post!! I've got you on ignore but my screen is still littered with ignored post messages, it's seriously bizarre behavior.

Yep, nothing lasts forever and anyone who doesn't understand that shouldn't be allowed to invest. Here's a three year old article about Apple, the author compares Apple to Sony and talks about maxing out its key product without having anything to replace it with. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenmcbride1/2019/08/26/dark-days-are-closing-in-on-apple/?sh=4a86df473957

Exactly.

Here's a couple of video's to watch in your pare time, if you're interested and if you want to understand the underlying economic picture. Roubini is of course known as Dr Doom so you should cherry pick what he has to say and see how it compares against other market commentators. That said, Roubini has remarkable qualifications as an economist. Jeremy Grantham is a Brit who owns an extremely successful investment company in the US and tends to be right more often than he's wrong so he's worth listening to. There are plenty of other highly regarded investors and market analysts out there who are worth listening to, after you've heard a few speak you pick up on the common theme. Ray Dalio, Ken Moelis, even Charlie Munger are all worth understanding, before you jump in.

I agree, it's not good to be out of the markets completely, the issue is, what does being in the markets mean to an older person. I bought PNL, CGT and RICA about 13 months ago, all UK based wealth preservations funds that mix variable amounts of global equities with bonds and other financial instruments aimed at protecting wealth. The equities element is currently only about 26%, so whilst the downside loss is limited, so is the potential upside gain. But when markets turn those fund managers will increase their equities holdings up to 45% hence the upside potential increases. I think blue chip fund managers stand a far better chance of reading markets accurately than I ever will, that scenario gives me all the risk I need at my age. If we were talking 5 years ago, the story would be different, you'd have to be a complete imbecile not to make money in equities back then....but that was then and this is now.

Sure, many people have their own time frames in mind, I don't care because I have been in defensive mode for over a year and have lost hardly anything. But at age 70+ years, a decade long recovery may as well be never, especially for those who are avid buy and hold fanatics. I know people who entered the current markets downturn holding a handful of high risk Baillie Gifford funds and they have lost about 50%. They didn't get out when the writing was on the wall because they were convinced that the buy and hold mantra which had stood the test of time would protect them. I don't think investors can take the buy and hold approach in isolation, they have to look at the surrounding economic picture and also consider their age. We're currently in an economic and geopolitical scenario that we've never experienced before and the way out is very unclear. For over 65 year olds to start taking risks in this environment is sheer craziness.