nigelforbes

I read that Thai Airways is selling several buildings both inside and outside Thailand in an attempt to reduce costs and recoup money..

Hua Hin is more normal than Pattaya but where isn't, it's also a nicer place and nicer beach. If you don't want the bars/working girls and night life, forget Pattaya. As for girls.....there are plenty of normal Thai girls everywhere, you just have to see them.

The researchgate paper I posted earlier shows: "Fig. 5 Mean monthly Influenza cases in the four regions of Thailand from January 1993 – July 2007". That data looks fairly solid for Type C and points strongly towards getting a Type C shot before the rainy season in May, this would satisfy a lot of posters who seem to believe that flu is a rainy season problem in Thailand. The remaining open issue is the timing of Type A and infections by other strains. The end of the winter in Australia seems to coincide with other posters beliefs, including mine, that the flue virus from down under emerges in Asia around Sept/Oct which is the start of the cooler season in Thailand. That would point towards a second shot in September. Until I hear something more conclusive and convincing, it's May and September for me, do let us know if you find out more on this subject.

I used the expat element (3%) as the example since that is what this forum comprises I imagine, it's supposed to demonstrate the point rather than be a math exercise..

Indeed there are, but none quite as accurate. "Tourism is one of the primary engines driving Thailand’s economy. In 2019, tourism sector accounted for 11% of the country's gross domestic product". (Note: this is domestic AND foreign) https://www.bot.or.th/Thai/MonetaryPolicy/EconomicConditions/AAA/250624_WhitepaperVISA.pdf

The answer is that it's a FOREX issue. The more a currency is sold against USD, the weaker that currency becomes - the more USD is purchased, using other currencies, the stronger USD becomes. In times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty people buy the key Reserve Currency, which is USD. The psychology at play currently is that the US FED will keep increasing interest rates in order to tame inflation, that means investors will get a better return on USD than other currencies and imports priced in USD will cost the holders of other currencies more. When inflation dips, expect USD to weaken, at some point normal service will be resumed.

It's easy to blame the Dollar for those things but there's a good chance they may result from other things instead/also. Broken supply chains still proliferate plus China's is still in lockdown hence trade with them is being hampered, Then we have flooding, the effects of which will trickle through and be felt at some point. From memory I recall that THB versus other currencies is largely the same as before, it's just THB and other currencies against USD that's the problem. Given that China is very nearly Thailand's largest trading partner, combined with the lower cost of US imports from Thailand, my guess is that the strength of USD is not the root cause of the problems you mention.....just a guess however.

I have a UK Tax Personal Allowance of 11.5k which covers my UK pension and some/most/all of my rental income, if it doesn't I pay tax to HMRC. My remaining income arises offshore, in the US and in Asia hence it is not taxable in the UK.

Domicile and tax residency are very different things, it's very difficult for most UK citizens not to be UK domiciled, as Lord Denning, Master of the Rolls said, "Domicile is not a raincoat that can be taken off and put on at will". Tax residency on the other hand is a simple matter to determine using the tax residency tests and this status can change every year. For most people, domicile only really comes into play for inheritance Tax purpose and estate planning, For the uber rich, domicile can be used to avoid taxation on overseas income, but you'd need to be in the top 0.5% of income earners to be able to sensibly use that option. I for example am a Britt., I've been in Thailand for 30 years but own UK property that earns rental income. I am UK domiciled because of the property and my income but I am not UK tax resident.

You can use the UK online Self Assessment system from overseas, providing you're filing as UK resident for tax purposes. BUT you cannot use the same system if filing as not UK resident for tax purposes, that requires an agent or tax consultancy software which is not available to the general public. So, if expats are filing from overseas they are pretending to be UK resident, is my presumption.

Using money it will earn in the future.

I've been with UOB (Thai) for over 10 years, I went with them initially because they were one of the safest banks and consistently in the top 10 for bank security. Their rates and products seem to be no better or worse from any other bank here. Their customer service is no better or worse although I do have some pet peeves on this front. Every time I developed a banking relationship with one of the branch staff, somebody who spoke decent English and actually had a clue what they were doing, that person was transferred and I'd have to start over. Trying to get an end of year tax statement from them was often really difficult and resulted in me teaching staff basis math and accounting skills, an appalling scenario which is now automated at my new bank. I also became annoyed that I had to produce my passport every time I transacted, despite being known to the branch for years. I opened an account at Bangkok Bank in March and slowly but surely that has become my bank of choice, their app is very good and they are very responsive with balance and transaction notification. I cannot see a good reason to maintain my UOB account and will probably let it go next year. UOB is a god bank but you'd need to have a good reason to open an account there instead of using a bank such as Bangkok Bank, which has more branches and is considered critical to Thai infrastructure.

BOT's got a really difficult choice to make. If it raises interest rates further/faster it risks making exports less competitive, disincentives overseas tourists and increases the cost of consumer loans, all of which are major threats to the economy. If it leaves the interest rates low that means imports become more expensive, not only oil but also the other components that are inputs to the manufacturing process which are then exported again. The US Fed Terminal Rate is currently 4.9% but that will surely rise. The BOT rate is currently 1%, the gap is huge Leaving rates low(ish) gets my vote, trying to track the Fed even loosely is folly. Ah yes you say, but expats want a weaker Baht, so do tourists. The problem is that foreign tourism is only about 10% of GDP and expats only about 3%, it's the other 97% of the economy that's really important.

The stock market is not the economy.

The graphs on page 115 show that a majority of cases occur between June and October and that the peak is around August. But this is just for Type C and doesn't mention other strains. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/242396924_Analysis_of_Influenza_Cases_and_Seasonal_Index_in_Thailand

I recently read that Type A is now circulating which makes getting both shots sensible.

We just leave all our valuables in my wife's purse, nobody can ever find anything in there, even her, it's like the tardis.

This is work in progress, stay tuned! Sterling is on a journey, not sitting at a destination.

Which seems to confirm the need to be vaccinated twice (and before...). SO everyone is right, wheeee.

By safe do you mean those large steel boxes that advertise the owner has something worth stealing?

"the marriage is more than likely the reason for getting married"........ huh!

I don't know the answer but what I have learned from researching this thread is that two flue shots a year is optimal, one to coincide with the Northern Hemisphere flu season and one for the South.

At age 79 years a 20 year visa doesn't represent good value to me, statistically speaking I would only ever be able to use a part of it, why waste money unnecessarily. And since I am 79 years old and have underlying health issues, I've been advised to stay away from crowds during the pandemic/winter and Immigration tends to be very crowded at times.....using an agent solves this problem nicely. The previous poster also thought I was being elitist but he didn't think things through either! As for the golf: I've tried it from a wheel chair but it doesn't have the same appeal it used to have.

I have far more money than sense, your point is?

The WHO says, people in Thailand should be vaccinated against the flu between May and September. NOTE ALSO: the vaccine type is Southern Hemisphere, this is because there are two flu seasons globally, one in the North and one in the South, the latter predates the former. https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/340610/Influenza-Thailand-eng.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y