nigelforbes

Here's two charts. The first is the value of the US Dollar Index, see how it strengthened From January to October and then dived back to near 100 (normal) in the last two months of the year. In the second chart, see the USD/THB exchange rate over the same period. See how it weakened against USD, over exactly the same period and how it strengthened rapidly over the last two months also....can you join up the dots I wonder! Oh and to add, a definition of volatility: noun 1. liability to change rapidly and unpredictably, especially for the worse. "the succession of new rulers contributed to the volatility of the situation" https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

Sooo, you knew they intervened when the Baht was weakening against USD, because you read it in the papers. But because you haven't read in the newspapers that they have intervened once again, now it is is returning to normal, you assume they haven't. Could it be that a return to normal, isn't news worthy and didn't deserve a press release? And it could it be that they intervened but didn't tell you...how rude of them! You're a funny guy, I like people who make me chuckle.

Tell us, how will you know, if and when BOT intervenes in markets to reduce volatility, if you don't read it in the newspapers?

39.99 at Bangkok Bank, ouch.

Please google, "BOT says it has intervened to steady the Baht", read the link in the paper that cannot be named and then get back to us! BOT intervened to reduce volatility, that's their job. They did not intervene to strengthen the Baht.

Sure, but most expats here have income/savings sources in other currencies, USD, GBP or EURO etc.

On the ring road yesterday, a road where traffic always runs at 90+, go down the underpass, up the other side and there at the top of the brow, just out of view until the very last second is a set of cones, one or two meters beyond that are workmen cutting trees and cleaning up their mess. Impossible for drivers to see in advance or to react in time, unless the next lane is open and they can swerve....who to blame if they get hit, certainly not the drivers yet that's where responsibility will rest.

Even without covid recovery, that's an embarrassing guesstimation for a Minister to make in public.

I don't understand where you get "manipulation" from, I've read the entire article a couple of times and it seems to cover a hodge podge of economic related topics. Exports, consumer pricing, electricity costs, food production, they're all covered but I don't see that manipulation forms any aspect of those things. Yes the Baht has strengthened because of hot money or capital inflows, USD 1.6 bill. already in January, plus the NEWS that Chinese tourists WILL begin to arrive, that is certain. Has the Baht strengthened too much too quickly? Perhaps. Exporters seem to think it is now a threat to their business but in recent years they were able to get by when it was 29, today it's 33 and they're already making noises, hmmm, they're complaining early this year! In reality the ex. rate is not a threat to their business, it's a threat to their profit margins, that's why they are complaining. Is the Baht out of line with economic fundamentals, yes, the value of THB is forward looking so there's no surprise there. All things being equal the Chinese tourists will arrive, start spending and money will begin to circulate and the general economy will begin to improve, there's nothing new or unexpected there. The BIG questions are, will the Baht continue to strengthen and if so, will BOT need to take action, if so what. It is the NEWS that tourists will arrive that has caused THB to strengthen, not their actual arrival, that is why brokers have bid up the price. We will have to wait and see now, how many arrive, what their economic impact is, whether there will be negative impacts from covid as a result, and, what other factors change because they all have an impact on future currency direction. Other factors include the strength of our trading partners economic recovery and interest rates at the Fed., amongst other things. If THB does strengthen, will BOT need to take action because now the stage has been set, we're finally getting somewhere close potentially to the words intervention and manipulation! The short answer is yes, that's their job under IMF rules and a key function of their role. Under IMF rules they will smooth out the peaks and troughs in the exchange rate, in order to help exporters, that's what they MUST do. If THB becomes too strong, say 29 or 28, what will happen then, will they intervene. Yes, but not necessarily by selling Baht to weaken the currency, that would be foolish and a costly waste of time and they know that. But there are many other things they could both do directly and strongly recommend, that would achieve the same result. Loosening currency controls even further might be one, might (they've done this previously), increasing imports by removing import restrictions might be another, they have plenty of tools. None of that is manipulation, all of that is what ANY Central Banks does (or is required to do), it's their job. Just because this is Thailand and corruption exists, doesn't mean that corruption exists everywhere and that everything is bent or shady, some aspects work very well indeed. Just because BOT smoothes out peaks and troughs and reduces volatility in the exchange rate, that is not manipulation, other than in a technical sense. For the time being, everyone has to sit and watch to see what happens next. 32/33 is a sweet spot for the ex. rate as both imports and exports are concerned and the currency is still well within range. There isn't a problem currently and there may not be one downstream.

I don't disagree with what BOT says, I agree. But I don't think you understand what that article says, what it means or how the FOREX system works. The strength of THB currently is NOT in line with economic fundamentals, TODAY, the broker was right in that respect. Neither equity valuations nor FOREX bids are based on todays actuals, they are based on what is forecast for tomorrow. Dealers views on currency strength are forward looking, just as the equities indices such as the S&P are, they both form valuations of future worth, based on events they have high confidence will happen. If their views turn out to be wrong or something changes, valuations will change very quickly. Dealers have bid up the value of THB because they know that Chinese tourists have started to arrive unhindered. That means more revenue, more Foreign Currency Reserves, more current account surplus and a stronger Baht. It's irrelevant that those things haven't all happened yet, they know with a high degree of certainty that they will and that's sufficient.

So, one broker says the strengthening is blah blah blah and that does it for you does it and there must be something amiss? Cool....don't give up the day job.

If you don't trust or believe the BOT figures, the Finance Ministry figures, the FOREX data, the economic data or the markets views, there's no point in debating any of this with you. I'm pretty sure that if I had the same reservations about those things that you do, I certainly wouldn't be willing to call Thailand my home.

Is that really the best you can do BM, that's seriously disappointing, I had you down for better than that.

I went into wealth preservation funds in Sept. 2021 and have stayed there. CGT, PNL and RICA holdings meant I was down a maximum of 5%, now fully recovered. I'm slowly adding sensible assets but am a firm believer in a solid geographic spread. My best performers so far have been Developed Asia and EM. I'm holding 15% US, 4% UK, 4% EU, 6% Dev Asia and 5% EM, all for a total of 37% equities....the rest, 33%, is in bonds, gold, FI and risk mitigation products. I recently bought Royal London Global Select which has proved to be very stable. My next purchase is likely to be Fidelity Europe which also has done well. I remain 30% cash.

The actual FCR figures that BOT publish monthly reflect the USD/THB exchange rate in play at the time so they may appear different from sites such as Tradingeconomics etc. There was a big to do a few months ago when the press got hold of the idea that BOT had been spending FCR defending the Baht. It was no coincidence that BOT repriced the FCR because the Baht had been trading at 38. When the repricing took effect it appeared as though there was a shortfall of USD 32 bill. which of course was nonsense but it didn't prevent the press from trying to make political capital out of what happened - the story was widely reported and is out there for those who are interested. Regardless, the official BOT numbers are shown in the link below. https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=80&language=eng

Go to a Land Transport Office that is just out a little way, don't use the big main offices. I use one about 20kms outside CM and I can nearly always do any business I want to do, on a walk in basis, plus they are more friendly than the main offices.

I forgot to say, GBP/USD and EUR/USD are usually positively corelated. so no help there.

Most often, it is what it appears to be, rather than something it could be! Doctors are taught that in Med. School and they are usually right...perhaps think about that for a moment. And whilst I have offered up evidence and arguments to say it is not, those who think otherwise can only ever offer up what they imagine, rather than any proof.....some evidence to support what you think, may be useful for your argument. As for BOT running out of Foreign Currency Reserves (FCR), I don't know what you think they are. Just for info., FCR are not held by BOT, they are held by the BIS (Bank of International Settlements) and they are not just FCR, they comprise Gold, SDR's and guess what else, apart from the 24 currencies of the major trading partners....Yes, THB. Once an asset is designated as FCR it remains so, it can't suddenly decide to become plain old vanilla THB, just because somebody sold the FCR in another currency. Even if BOT sold all its FCR it would still be left holding an equal amount of THB, or at least BIS would. And the last piece of the picture is that whilst the contents of the FCR are all manner of things, they are accounted for as USD so they can be compared to GDP and the FCR of other countries etc. It therefore follows that BOT cannot run out of FCR although it can run out of Foreign Currency, which doesn't mean that much at all.

I'm curious, what's your pick for a global index tracker? I'm considering putting some spare cash into HSBC FTSE All World.

Given that poster @eisfeld independently confirmed the calculation above that proves there is no direct GBP/THB link, along with anecdotal reasons why THB is strengthening, whilst BOT wishes it would weaken, real time evidence emerges this morning of independent THB strengthening, in the ex. rates. The US Dollar Index, the measure of USD strength/weakness, weakened less than 0.1% yesterday whilst the Pound continued to fall. Meanwhile this morning at open, THB strengthened to 33.18 against USD and to 40.08 against the Pound. Given the furor over exports becoming uncompetitive, along with BOT's stance on intervention, the only explanation for the increase is heavy Baht buying against. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy https://daytodaydata.net/

Ooooo, name calling, that's a step down even further from posting movie posters and not being able to debate at all, you gonna cry next!

The CDC and the VA says now, 50 years on, that more research is needed to conclude the link. But if you know more than the CDC, Veterans Affairs Hospital and most other medical researchers on this subject, I'll have to bow to your superior knowledge.

Nah, we moved past that point and pretty much agreed (oh no!) that addictive personality types are the real problem. But if you happen to be in that class of people, it's a real problem and of course, it's a problem for society too when they move up the addiction ladder. Dimwits however continue to argue that any link was debunked decades ago so there might be an IQ link also.

I'm still waiting for you to confirm how that urban myth was debunked decades ago, did you forget....again!

Rainy season is a brilliant time to visit the islands, it's one of the best times for us.