Cameroni

Yes, there are obvious problems the steel tariffs will cause. Cars will get more expensive. But this will be the case across the board. Part of the reason why the steel tariffs are necessary is because China has been dumping cheap steel everywhere around the gblobe, depressing prices. However, the US needs high prices for steel. And don't forget these tariffs will be bad for the US, but they will be mortal for the 25000 Canadian steel workers. They will kill Canadian steel right off. So Trump will eliminate a competitor, Canadian steel producers. However, it may be that the real reason that Trump wants strong US steel and aluminium producers, is that he wants to prepare the US for military purposes.

Four hours ago JP Morgan estimated the risk of recession in 2025 as less than 50%. They still predicted respectable growth. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/jp-morgan-economist-sees-40-us-recession-chance-risks-exorbitant-privilege-2025-03-12/ Look, the Cassandra analysis has been ongoing for the last 40 years. At some point it will come true, no doubt, but we're not at that place yet.

Ah, the Cassandra analysis. Well, I would be willing to put a wager that should there be a recession it will not last 16 years.

The big takeaway there is that economic orthodoxy is not necessarily that useful in a modern economy, and also that the benefit of tariffs depends on the context. i don't think it's dumb to put a tariff on steel or aluminium, in fact in the US context it makes a lot of sense. It will lead to US produced steel and aluminium on a greater scale. It will reduce subsidies on Canada. Not to mention bring in a lot of tariff money into the tax pot of the US.

Actually the US did exactly that in the past. How do you think they went to the moon?

You want to read this article: https://www.ft.com/content/61f289b7-a953-4067-a8a3-9bb1ba7f16da

It's hardly a secret that the market is in the largest bubble in history and was due for a correction. So far it is only dropped 12% from the recent all time high. in the 2008 crash it shed 65%. We have gone up OVER 100% since that time, which is incredible. If the market is down 4 trillion, what about the 50 trillion it's gone straight up since 2009? The market goes down, sure. It will go up again. Don't worry. If it crashes now, don't get out, buy like crazy at the bottom. You will make a fortune.

Yes, there are the odd diamonds and exceptions. It's certainly nice to hear these true positive accounts and of course very happy you found a good woman. But if you had not had the funds to buy her a house, retire in Thailand, how long do you think this woman would have stayed with you? Clearly she is of good character, from what you have said, but don't you think your resources and willingness to buy her a house contributed to her happiness, and thus to her staying with you?

I very much do. What cards do you think you hold ronnie?

That's a classic "...using hurty words to will Harry Potter Trump away"...lol...can I use that? Yah, I'm also enjoying the show of grown men talking nonsense, world will end, Trump is a Russian asset, Trump is going to destroy the US economy. They don't realize it says more about them than the future or the present, but you get to enjoy the freak show. Loving it too.

Lol, you have to give it to Donald, he's a loyal friend. He saw Tesla stock going down and is trying to help his buddy. Such a good friend, Trump.

Well, right now UJ is going up. It's hard to make a prediction here because UJ has gone up so MUCH, and therefore the Yen has fallen so much, that it has indeed corrected a bit recently. As you know the Dollar Index has gone down. But indications are the Dollar Index will go up. Then again the BOJ has indicated it will support the Yen. But right now UJ is going up again, so the downward trend for the Yen is indeed continuing. Technicaly analysis is extremely useful, but I also look at fundamental data to make trades. As for economists beliefs about the economy, it's like with scientists you put 10 in a room and you get 12 opinion, unless they started an investment fund and are trading profitably don't even bother to quote them. Their guess is as good as mine.

I'm serious. Even if it goes to plan and Ukraine and Russia sign a peace treaty it will not stop Europe rearming madly. If the past few years have shown us anything it is that European politicians are the most inept. Imagine them armed to the teeth on a collission course with Russia. Dangerous times ahead.

Exactly, Minsk 1 and 2. This one will succeed though, because Russia wants peace and Ukraine desperately needs peace.

If you build her a house it may work. And if you're lucky to get a woman of good character, it may work. A lot of "ifs".

The market high for the NASDAQ was on 19 February, not December.

This is a good point, the Ukrainians too have committed killings of civilians and atrocities in this war.

Indeed it could have been avoided and Ukraine and Russia were far down the road of negotiating a peaceful settlement when Boris Johnson flew in and threatened Zelensky with total lack of US and UK support if Ukraine signed the agreement, instead urging Zelensky "let's just fight". Starting a war is not a crime. The US did it against Panama, Iraq, it's just not. War is a legitimate tool of policy. War crimes are war crimes.

I quite agree, but as Mao said, a journey of a thousand steps begins with one step. And this was by far the hardest step. As regards peace negotiations, the Russians want peace and they cannot fight this war forever due to economic reasons. They will seek peace. Ukraine needs peace, and hopefully will not negotiate in bad faith. But there is a good precedent the Kiev 1 and 2 agreements which failed can be taken as a basis, leaders have experience in negotiating peace deals about Ukraine. This would be useful.

The crimes the Russians committed against Ukrainian civilians are crimes, to be sure. For these those who comitted them, should indeed be punished. However, the Allied bombers in WWII, Americans and British, who purposefully targeted and burned alive women and children, were not held accountable and sadly here too those Russian animals who killed civilians may escape punishment. Yes, those who committed those outrages should be punished, but I doubt it will happen, sadly. And frankly sanctions against Russia have no effect anymore. Besides Putin is sure to make lifting of sanctions a condition for peace.

This is NOT appeasement. Appeasement is a policy to make territorial concessions to avoid conflict. Here the conflict has already happened. This is just peace making. It is not a question of "making Russia pay", it is a question of Ukraine avoiding total destruction and stopping the killing of women and children. Pointless killing because Ukraine can never win this war. What is tolerable to Ukraine zealots is really neither her nor there. Zelensky's position will become untenable, because he will not have delivered anything but loss of territory and loss on the battlefield. That is why he had every incentive to be obstructive, for his own vanity and pride. If he does the right thing and make peace he will go down as a loser. Thankfully looks like he's okay with it. Russia cannot fight this war forever, due to economic reasons. Ukraine cannot fight this war forever for manpower, ammunitions and economic reasons. Peace will now come. Glory to Donald Trump, the man who made peace in Ukraine possible.

Tough man from Canada bends the knee to Trump. As I said above, it is the US that has the biggest lever. It was very foolish of this man to try and use the electricity used by families as a pressure tool. You don't have the cards, Canada.

All political leaders are murderers. You think Zelensky is not a murderer? He is a murderer. So was Obama. They all are. This is why Trump fighting so hard to make peace is such wonderous outcome and stroke of luck for the world.

Oh don't worry, Putin will show up. He wants peace more than Zelensky. Trump did it. There will be peace in Ukraine. And it is all down to one man, that made it happen: Donald Trump. Thank you Mr Trump. Thank you for making the world a safer place. Thank you for avoiding WWIII. Thank you for saving the lives of women and children and men.

To get Ukraine to negotiate was the hardest part. Russia is not irrational like Ukraine, Russia knows they cannot fight this war forever and they will make peace. Once the peace agreement is signed Donald Trump should get all the credit, it would have been HIS efforts in FORCING UKraine to make peace that will have secured the peace. What a fantastic outcome for the world. What a man to be a charge. They said he would not be able to do it. Look at him doing it. What a magnificient negotiator Trump is.