I'd like to think there will be change of some description but its difficult to guess what that might be. I can't see a split of the country - Thailand is very 'Bangkok Centric' so a North/South divide would very much hobble the North. The generals would never let it happen anyway - the North feeds the South.
Move Forward appear to be trustworthy and I believe, should be given the benefit of the doubt on that, until they prove otherwise. Their policies threaten the very heart of the status quo - a status quo that guarantees the wealth of a few at the expense of the many. That was never going to be allowed.
In the past, when things have gone to far, when the piggies trough has been in danger of being tipped over - there has been a coup. The generals came up with what Baldrick would call a 'cunning plan' - change the constitution in such a way that we don't need to have any more coups - after all, coups are damaging from an international perspective. So they could retain their position, remain sitting at the trough but appear to be far distant.
Move Forward threatened the very stones that the trough sits on. They had many policies to reform the country - some aimed at the lesse majeste laws, some aimed directly at the income that fills the trough - its all connected.
For example: The Alcohol Duopoly. Just two brewers exist in Thailand - Thai Bev and Bood Rawd , basically Chang and Singha. Thai Bev hold about 34% of the beer market with Boon Rawd holding 58%. There is another smaller brewer/importer that hold the other 8% but its unclear why that was allowed to happen. The law is a little complicated but basically, in order to start a brewery in Thailand, a company must be able to brew xxx zillion litres of beer per year - a hideous figure that I can't remember but its one that no start up company would ever attempt. Hence the monopoly of beer sales in Thailand and therefore the profit, belongs to just 2 families - Thai Chinese billionaire Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi and his family own Thai Bev and Bhurit “Tae” Bhirombhakdi & family own Boon Rawd.
Move Forward proposed ending this duopoly which is why I say 'Move Forward threatened the very stones that the trough sits on'. In my opinion, in terms of a threat, this is far more relevant than any proposals to change to the lesse majeste laws. It is entirely possible that the 'establishment' are using Move Forward's proposals to change the lesse majeste laws in order to make them look like anti royalists - something that would chime with a good proportion of the electorate. I believe that changes affecting wealth are the real reason they oppose Move Forward.
Thai politics are both complicated and childish in the same breath, you can get totally lost trying to understand them until you just take a step back and ask why? Why are they like this? End of the day........power - and power = wealth. Not much different to many countries in reality - just a more childish and intermeshed way of going about it. However, the wealth that's at the foot of most of what goes on appears to be far more concentrated than it is in other countries. According to a highly educated Thai friend who has followed the history - wealth is held by just 5 or 6 families - of course those who do their bidding are very well compensated so it may appear to be bigger than that.
To maintain that wealth, the South needs the North - no way would a split ever be allowed.