Mike Lister

@JimGant may be able to answer your question.

An inappropriate and disrespectful post was reported and removed. Somebody was killed, they will have family and loved ones who may be reading this thread, show some respect.

Holier here...:) "You've got the 'holier than thou' types who swear your bank accounts must go through probate, and absolutely cannot be touched outside of this process. BS". It's not that bank account MUST go through probate, it's just that's what the law says. Of course, if there's pragmatic way around that and all parties are happy, why not. It's the same with filing a tax return when no tax is due, why even bother. And then there's all those other silly laws that exist, goodness me, there's so many of them and they can be such an inconvenience at times, speeding, running a red light, driving whilst just a teeny weeny bit over the limit and so on. I feel certain there must be people out there who say I don't need to follow those either. So again, if all parties are happy, why not! Caution: this post may contain satire.

From the article in the OP: "An alarming issue for the Thai economy is the mounting trade deficit with China, as cheap imports are far outpacing Thailand’s exports for many years. In January alone, though Thai exports to China were worth $2.3 billion, imports amounted to $6.8 billion, leaving the country to deal with a trade deficit of $4.6 billion. This is higher than the $2.9-billion deficit in December and the $4.1-billion deficit in January 2022" .

Yes indeed. And one key reason why GDP growth was down 0.6% in December was because the government with held disbursing the budget, the government actually caused that fall in growth.

The Cabinet has already approved borrowing of USD 560 bill but this is alleged to be for another purpose and not for the digital wallet scheme, which incidentally is the same amount! This means the Cabinet has now authorised the expense, all they have to do now is find the money. I suspect that approval of increased budget deficit will make things slightly easier to acquire funding. It could always be claimed that the money was needed for other purposes and then diverted at the last moment, because priorities changed! It looks like a legal minefield ahead if they go that route but who knows.

Ok so here's the solution....obviously it wasn't behind a paywall when I first read it, otherwise I wouldn't have been able to cut and paste the excerpt that I posted! If you click on the link you will be asked to take out a subscription. But, if you google, "Tarisa Watanagase told to resign by deputy finance minister", and click on the FT link, it will let you read the article. How amazing is that, magic or similar perhaps. 🙂

Hmm, that's interesting, the article wasn't behind a paywall when I read it last night but now it is....I'll do some digging but thanks for letting me know.

You can buy them through banks or brokerages houses in Thailand but the fees that are charged will make buying them expensive. Buying them offshore would be a much better bet, Interactive Brokers in Luxemburg is one good choice, Saxo might be another. A third option is to buy something like Vanguard short term bond index which has an average duration of 2.6 years but again, that would need to be purchased offshore. Have you looked at the US Treasury's direct bond buying facility? Thai bank brokerage houses include UOBAM and Kasikorn.

Oh come on now, I mean really! You've been here long enough to remember this: Tensions between the Thai government and the country’s central bank over monetary policy boiled over on Friday, with the new deputy finance minister calling for the bank’s governor to resign. It seems the excerpt above is behind a paywall so just google, "Tarisa Watanagase told to resign by deputy finance minister", and click on the FT link, it will let you read the article.

Moved to Eastern Thailand Forum

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I don't think anyone said USD and GBP were/will collapse! The USD/THB trend pre-covid was to strengthen. only covid spending and trade disruption has interfered with that. BOT spent virtually all of its currency intervention time, pre-covid, weakening THB in an attempt to keep it in the optimum trading range of 32/33, pre-covid that range strengthened to sub 30. The fact that it is now at 36 is almost irrelevant because we're still in post covid recovery plus there are new issues on the table. Regardless, I remain totally complete that within 3 years time, THB will be back to 30. Why? One key reason is that Thai public debt is only USD 60 bill vs US USD34 trill and climbing, Thai public debt today is at the same level today it was in 2000. GBP value is not really relevant in all of this, I think, since GBP/THB is calculated from USD/THB and USD/GBP. Anyway, UK debt is almost as bad as US debt plus UK markets are linked inextricably to the US. Interest rates: will normalise within 18 months, between now and then the Baht may weaken slightly, perhaps. Which is why I think a 50% trade today would be good value, 45 against the Pound is not exactly an everyday event!

OP - a reasonable strategy at present would be to transfer half of your holdings at the present rate and wait on the second half. Watch USD strength and also events in Thailand, you can almost ignore events in the UK. The long term average for USD/THB is circa 32 and that's where the pair will return at some point, the prospect of anything significantly over 36 is quite low.

GBP/THB is derived from a cross rate of USD/THB and USD/GBP. The current Pound/Baht weakness is therefore a result of USD strength and THB weakness.

Be certain to read Sheryl's response.

I've removed an interesting and indirectly relevant post about airborne pollution, because it is not central to the topic at hand and risks derailing the thread.

I have removed the video links posted by the OP, please do not repost.

You will need Sheryl to confirm this but stopping aspirin as a treatment for cardiovascular disease is not without risk, despite Aspirin being a known cause of stomach related issues. If done under the guidance of a cardiologist, it's OK but if merely based on an instruction by a government doctor, I would be very nervous. I recently had to stop taking aspirin 81mg for an operation and doing so was a significant cause for concern, even though a cardiologist was involved.

OP, was the Aspirin prescribed by a doctor, if so for what reason?

Maybe turn the question around, will the PM face the same fate as others who have tried to bully the BOT Gov. Case in point, ex Governor Tarisa Watanagase who, when attacked by government, was publicly thanked for her sound stewardship of national monetary policy and all her hard work, ....long silence followed.

I would be most concerned at being told to stop taking Aspirin 81mg which presumably was for cardiovascular disease? Perhaps @Sheryl will comment.

Their debt restructuring deal saved them millions, that's partially why they are back in profit. Investment funds such as UOBAM Good Governance LTF purchased TA shares back in 200X. The fund performed really well, until part of the debt restructuring deal meant that investors such as the LTF fund, had to forego any increases in share value, or dividends, since the purchase date. This meant the fund held the shares and earned nothing on them for close to twenty years.

Off topic, unattributed cut and pastes removed. If you post material from other sources, provide a link.

The larger District offices will, there are several who speak English in the Chiang Mai Districts 1 & 2 offices. Most of the Tax officers are university educated so will have been required to learn English.