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jdinasia

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Posts posted by jdinasia

  1. TRT won most of BKK just one year ago ....

    Nakhon Nayok and Chonburi etc...

    looks like they lost most of those areas including some of Chiang Mai too ...

    The numbers elsewhere are a bit surprising too ... some of the Kanchanaburi constituencies whent way over for "No Vote" and that is where Thaksin made all his crazy promises of Laptops ... free land ... loans for cars and houses etc!

  2. From CNN front page story International edition today

    BANGKOK, Thailand (Reuters) -- Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was unable to claim the decisive mandate he sought after a strong protest vote in Sunday's snap poll pointed to a constitutional crisis.

    Refusing to recognize the election as legitimate, the opposition did not put up any candidates and urged voters instead to tick the "no vote" box on their ballots.

    The strategy seemed to work in Bangkok where "no votes" were in a clear majority with at least half the ballots counted, Thai media said.

    Thaksin won 32 of Bangkok's 37 constituencies in polls last year.

    Nearly 70 percent of the 399 seats at stake across the country were uncontested as a result of the boycott and many will be left empty, lacking a minimum number of votes. That will effectively prevent a new government from being formed.

    Dismayed over the "no vote" trend, Thaksin was thinking about turning the government over to his deputy as a way of defusing political tensions, Thai newspapers reported on Monday quoting sources from his Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party.

    For the moment, he remains head of a caretaker government.

    "The poll will produce a protracted deadlock for months," political scientist Somjai Phagaphasvivat told Reuters. "The final outcome is far from certain."

    Thaksin's main support is in the countryside and early returns showed him getting solid support there -- enough to hand him another big majority -- if and when parliament convenes.

    Thai media said turnout was about 70 percent of the 45 million electorate, compared with 73 percent in February 2005.

    Counting was slow outside Bangkok and final official results were expected only late on Monday, the Elections Commission said.

    Thaksin called the election three years early to prove he had majority support against what he called "mobs" accusing him of corruption, cronyism and abuse of power. He said he would step down if his Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) party got less than 50 percent of the vote, which looked unlikely.

    But the opposition boycott is likely to plunge the country into a constitutional mess because it will result in empty seats in the 500-seat parliament.

    Even in an uncontested constituency, a sole candidate must win 20 percent of the eligible vote to claim the seat -- and that appeared highly unlikely in dozens of constituencies.

    All seats must be filled for a new government to be formed.

    In one Bangkok seat, there was no candidate on the ballot -- the unopposed TRT member having been disqualified at the last minute.

    In the largely Muslim far south, where telecoms billionaire Thaksin is deeply unpopular, many unopposed TRT hopefuls were likely to fall short of the 20 percent threshold.

    Bombs wounded four security men after the polls closed in the region, where more than 1,100 people have been killed in two years of separatist violence many Muslims blame on Thaksin. (Six injured in blasts)

    After a non-campaign with no competition and no suspense, Thaksin's party was still expected to get a majority of votes.

    Rural Thais -- 70 percent of the 63 million population -- turned out in force to vote for a prime minister who has given them cheap healthcare and credit during his five years in office.

    Economic toll

    The crisis is taking its toll on the economy, paralyzing business decision-making and sapping the stock market, Southeast Asia's second-worst performer after Malaysia this year.

    Thailand has already suspended negotiations on free trade agreements with the United States and Japan.

    After saying on Saturday that both sides should "shake hands after the competition ends", Thaksin hinted his patience might not last if the street campaign leaders failed to acknowledge the results of the poll.

    "It's time to bring law and order," he told reporters as he drove away from a polling station in a black Mercedes with his children, whose tax-free $1.9 billion sale of the telecoms empire he founded galvanized the opposition movement in January.

    Analysts say a one-week post-election break before street protests resume on Friday could provide a cooling-off period for talks between Thaksin and his opponents.

    Some voters in Bangkok disagreed. "Most people don't trust elections any more," said businessman Ponganan Limprajikul, 32. "I think there will be more protests. More people will come out to join the protests and they could become more emotional."

    CNN.Com

    Looks like Thaksin has some even more serious considerations today and tmw ... not just what to try whle no being able to seat Parlaiment ... but ...

  3. He still will win in a landslide, and the PAD are still laughable. You hardly need 50% to still be considered a landslide. But I did think it was stupid of him to make that 50% promise.

    Huh?

    "you hardly need 50% to still be considered a landslide? HUH No ... you don't ... you need 50% plus 1 vote to "Win" .... a landslide takes alot more .... and less well ... it is called losing

  4. hmmm seems like people named Chad ... in Florida are now calling themselves Charles ......

    woke up after a few hours sleep .. watching some poll results still .. but having a hard time interpretting their meanings ... guess I'll wait for the Pundits to ffill me in later ;-)

  5. Ever wandered round one of Bangkok's numerous shopping malls and noticed how shallow, self-absorbed and superficial many of the young people preening themselves there appear to be - particularly the younger women?

    Interested Observer

    Ever notice how people judge other that they don't know ..... in a situation that lends itself to the behavoiurs noted ....?

  6. Given that PAD haven't provoked anything in the past month it's a bit hard to believe your "believe". They had plenty of chances by now.

    Sorry, this is wrong.

    Even though under-reported, during the first march to the parliament at night Sondhi and Chamlong have provoced violence at the police block at Saphan Pan Fa. While the other PAD leaders negotiated with the police general responsible for metropolitan region 1, Sondhi, Chamlong, their bodyguards and a small group of hardcore protestors pushed through the police blockage to the shock and surprise of everyone, including the other PAD leaders.

    Fortunately police and everyone else kept a cool head, no demonstrators followed, so that Chamlong and Sondhi stopped and had to sit down until the negotiations were finished and the protestors were led through.

    I think there was a small article on the incident in the nation a day or two after.

    hmmmm :o so far I find the lack of documentation on that very strong evidence ....... <of what might be a valid question>

  7. Let me see if I have got this right :o

    Assuming a hyperthetical consistutency of knakonknowwhere we have a 100,000 registered voters.

    Working on a typical turnout, we are at around 75%, meaning 75,000 votes cast.

    With only the TRT candidate, he must win 20,001 votes (20%) to be declared the winner.

    So in terms of actual votes, that would mean in general terms 20,000 divided in the 75,000 votes cast or 26% (given that the turnout is only 75%)

    i am sure its based on turn out - otherwise why bother to vote for 'no one'?

    Because voting is compulsory in Thailand ... fail to vote and lose certain rights

    The rights you lose are nothing. The ability to be an MP and the ability to sign a recall. Many do not go home to vote.

    I didn't say they were major reasons for most people ... but voting is compulsory none-the-less ... which is why the law is worded the way it is

    anyways ... Plus found and cited the relevant law already ... it is 20% of the total eligible voters in a given constituency to win a seat unopposed.

  8. Let me see if I have got this right :o

    Assuming a hyperthetical consistutency of knakonknowwhere we have a 100,000 registered voters.

    Working on a typical turnout, we are at around 75%, meaning 75,000 votes cast.

    With only the TRT candidate, he must win 20,001 votes (20%) to be declared the winner.

    So in terms of actual votes, that would mean in general terms 20,000 divided in the 75,000 votes cast or 26% (given that the turnout is only 75%)

    i am sure its based on turn out - otherwise why bother to vote for 'no one'?

    Because voting is compulsory in Thailand ... fail to vote and lose certain rights (and telling people to not vote at all is against the law!

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